Hurricane Ike - Galveston Island! Look at this simulation...

[LNC]

The NWS warns of certain death to those who stay. I read 1/2 of the 58,000 residents are staying. Look at this prediction of what will happen with a 20 ft. storm surge. Click on the graphic for the simulation to start...

 

http://3dnature.com/anim/Galveston_TX-20ft-high.mp4

 

Praying for those people!

[Michelle in MO]

I hope everyone on Galveston evacuates the island! What a scary thing to go through!

 

Praying for those people here, too.

[Dayle in Guatemala]

I worry about those who won't/can't evacuate. What happens to them? Praying for safety for those in the path of this storm.

[sdWTMer]

The NWS warns of certain death to those who stay. I read 1/2 of the 58,000 residents are staying. Look at this prediction of what will happen with a 20 ft. storm surge. Click on the graphic for the simulation to start...

 

http://3dnature.com/anim/Galveston_TX-20ft-high.mp4

 

Praying for those people!

 

Oh dear. Poor Galveston. :(

[Rich with Kids]

I worry about those who won't/can't evacuate. What happens to them? Praying for safety for those in the path of this storm.

 

Everyone had an opportunity to evacuate Galveston. They were on all day yesterday urging people to leave and they offered assistance to those who have special needs. There were buses available for people to get to shelters in San Antonio, Dallas, etc. The news channels have been reporting the dangers, but some people just aren't leaving. It's frustrating, really. It has to make the officials feel helpless. Mandatory Evacuation means if you choose to stay, you are on your own. They aren't going to risk the lives of the emergency crews once it gets too dangerous.

ETA: I am praying for them, as well. I didn't mean to sound short. We're already watching high water rescues in places that should be desserted. It's painful to watch knowing they should have just left.

[Rich with Kids]

:o

Oh dear. Poor Galveston.

I know! What will I have to blog about now?!? ('Cuz it's all about me, right?):blink:

[OnTheBrink]

Everyone had an opportunity to evacuate Galveston. They were on all day yesterday urging people to leave and they offered assistance to those who have special needs. There were buses available for people to get to shelters in San Antonio, Dallas, etc. The news channels have been reporting the dangers, but some people just aren't leaving. It's frustrating, really. It has to make the officials feel helpless. Mandatory Evacuation means if you choose to stay, you are on your own. They aren't going to risk the lives of the emergency crews once it gets too dangerous.

 

ETA: I am praying for them, as well. I didn't mean to sound short. We're already watching high water rescues in places that should be desserted. It's painful to watch knowing they should have just left.

 

This is a big gripe of mine. People who, given the opportunity and assistance to leave won't, but expect to be rescued afterward. Looks like, in this situation, there won't be anyone TO rescue if the water rises as high as they're predicting. I'm always amazed at people who are so attached to their stuff/property that they'll die for it.

 

I hope everyone did evacuate and that they're all safely tucked away far from the danger zone.

[sleepy]

Oh, wow. How frightening!

[elegantlion]

:o

I know! What will I have to blog about now?!? ('Cuz it's all about me, right?):blink:

 

I just put some pics on my blog. Very sad to watch the TV coverage.

[Krista in LA]

My sister and her family live in Galveston. I haven't heard from her so I'm hoping she has made it a safe distance away. It does scare me though, because I could see them thinking it would be cool to try to ride it out - they are that type of people. I'm worrying a lot about them.

[JFSinIL]

Why would anyone on that island NOT evacuate? Do they not study what happened there 100+ years ago????? Or in New Orleans???

[tinag]

That is unbelievable.

[Dayle in Guatemala]

Everyone had an opportunity to evacuate Galveston. They were on all day yesterday urging people to leave and they offered assistance to those who have special needs. There were buses available for people to get to shelters in San Antonio, Dallas, etc. The news channels have been reporting the dangers, but some people just aren't leaving. It's frustrating, really. It has to make the officials feel helpless. Mandatory Evacuation means if you choose to stay, you are on your own. They aren't going to risk the lives of the emergency crews once it gets too dangerous.

 

ETA: I am praying for them, as well. I didn't mean to sound short. We're already watching high water rescues in places that should be desserted. It's painful to watch knowing they should have just left.

 

 

I absolutely agree with you. I didn't mean to infer that people are left there because they weren't given the chance to leave, I just know that there are people who feel like they have nowhere to go. "Can't" was probably the wrong word to use. Sorry!

 

They should be gone. I get frustrated watching rescuers risk their lives for people who didn't leave when they should have.

[Happy]

I absolutely agree with you. I didn't mean to infer that people are left there because they weren't given the chance to leave, I just know that there are people who feel like they have nowhere to go. "Can't" was probably the wrong word to use. Sorry!

 

They should be gone. I get frustrated watching rescuers risk their lives for people who didn't leave when they should have.

 

Its hard for me to believe folks don't know there are places to go. My church in northern Ft. Worth has opened its doors as a shelter. We are not the only ones.

[Diana in OR]

Why would anyone on that island NOT evacuate? Do they not study what happened there 100+ years ago????? Or in New Orleans???

 

 

Three years ago, when we were down there on vacation, we visited Galveston just before Hurricane Rita was expected. Many were evacuating, but it was apparent that many planned to stay. There were a few taverns along the water that were going to stay open to watch the storm.

 

One of my uncles, who lives on the mainland in a 20ft travel trailer was in the mandatory evacuation area. He is very stubborn and insisted the storm would go a different direction and didn't need to evacuate. That storm did end up turning at the last minute. I'm worried about this one and all my family that lives in the area.

[Dayle in Guatemala]

I seem to be doing that today!

 

I know that there are wonderful places that open their doors to evacuees. It's unfortunate that there are still those who feel as though they don't have a place to go even with all of that. There's nothing anyone can do about that, it's their personal feeling--true or not.

 

I'm praying that all will be safe.:grouphug:

[julesmama3]

Isn't there a mandatory evacuation in place? I think they should go and arrest everyone just to keep them safe.

[jamnkats]

Everyone had an opportunity to evacuate Galveston. They were on all day yesterday urging people to leave and they offered assistance to those who have special needs. There were buses available for people to get to shelters in San Antonio, Dallas, etc. The news channels have been reporting the dangers, but some people just aren't leaving. It's frustrating, really. It has to make the officials feel helpless. Mandatory Evacuation means if you choose to stay, you are on your own. They aren't going to risk the lives of the emergency crews once it gets too dangerous.

 

ETA: I am praying for them, as well. I didn't mean to sound short. We're already watching high water rescues in places that should be desserted. It's painful to watch knowing they should have just left.

 

This is SO TRUE. I get so angry when people just throw their lives away in this manner - my heart is sick thinking of the lives destroyed, and especially the lives of the children of the adults who decided to "surf it out". We have been under the southern bands of Ike for THREE DAYS! We had amazing surf and wind yesterday and we are in the CARIBBEAN! He is bigger and badder than Katrina. He is not a Cat 5, but you don't need to be Cat5 to be bigger and badder than a Cat5.

 

I'm just sick about this and I don't know why it is affecting me so. I guess because we had a horrific hurricane season last year and the CONUS was completely spared and this year it looks like the CONUS is getting hammered.

[Robin in Tx]

Everyone had an opportunity to evacuate Galveston. They were on all day yesterday urging people to leave and they offered assistance to those who have special needs. There were buses available for people to get to shelters in San Antonio, Dallas, etc. The news channels have been reporting the dangers, but some people just aren't leaving. It's frustrating, really. It has to make the officials feel helpless. Mandatory Evacuation means if you choose to stay, you are on your own. They aren't going to risk the lives of the emergency crews once it gets too dangerous.

 

ETA: I am praying for them, as well. I didn't mean to sound short. We're already watching high water rescues in places that should be desserted. It's painful to watch knowing they should have just left.

 

 

There was at least one couple who stayed behind because they operate a wrecker service and wanted to be one of the last to leave in case someone could use their help. Now they are stuck. They will not receive rooftop rescue. They are in a beachhouse that very likely will not be there tomorrow... it was very eery listening to his voice on the t.v., talking to the news report over cell phone. I know of at least one guy who thought there was enough time to another another run for stuff, and 12 inches of water came over the road in less than an hour.

 

One of the evacuations of Galveston called for everyone to be out by noon today. A lot of businesses were open yesterday and people had only overnight to prepare for evacuation. A lot of people thought they still had a little time this morning, since the storm isn't supposed to hit till tomorrow. Everyone underestimated how rapidly the surge would come in this morning. The mayor is a complete idiot for not calling a mandatory evacuation on WEDNESDAY to be completed by THURSDAY... and a lot of weather professional were very, very frustrated with her for that. She waited until the last minute and it is going to cost a lot of people their lives. It is very, very, hard for thousands of people to respond to an evacuation order in 12 hours.

[Robin in Tx]

Isn't there a mandatory evacuation in place? I think they should go and arrest everyone just to keep them safe.

 

They can't GET to them! Over an hour ago, the coast guard had received over 150 calls requesting rescues! They've only been able to fly in and get less than 20. Even Geraldo Rivera was caught off guard when he was standing in an area that suddenly a SURGE came in and knocked him off his feet and sent him rolling. People are underestimating how FAST and FURIOUS the surge is coming in. This is history in the making. Never a storm quite like this before. Evacuating 16-18 hours before the arrival of the storm is NORMALLY soon enough. Many of the people being rescued are people who got caught on the flooded roads *trying* to evacuate.

[Krista in LA]

I'm happy to say that my dad just e-mailed me that my sister did evacuate. However they did contemplate getting a hotel room in Galveston instead. As to why some people stay, I think there are lots of different reasons - curiousity, bragging rights (should they survive), being overwhelmed, the whole "it won't happen to me" mentality, the fear of leaving everything they have behind, etc, etc.

 

Let me just say that my sister is nothing like me. I wouldn't want to admit she was my sister if you met her IRL. Polar opposites would be the best way to describe us. I would have been out of there days ago.

[Mamagistra]

Yeah, the height of the waves over these levees and seawalls before the storm has even hit is so devastating. I can't believe what I'm seeing on the news. Pre-Ike is affecting the uppermost coastal area all the way down to south of Galveston. :eek:

 

I'm thinking that the beach house we have booked for the end of the month might not be a vacation paradise... :(

 

Back to laundry (while I'm able). :tongue_smilie:

[forty-two]

One possible reason people didn't leave is that yesterday's prediction had a much lower storm surge prediction (12-15ft) than today (15-20ft), and Galveston's seawall protects the main part of the island from a 17ft surge. Also, the island has a 10 degree backslope - water from a bigger surge should run through the island into the bay, and not flood too badly. They completely rebuilt the island after the 1900 hurricane, trying to make sure it could withstand another storm like it. I would still have left, but I can understand why people might not have; I was surprised to see the new surge estimates.

 

But sometimes it seems like people just freak out over the thought of a major hurricane without actually considering what dangers are real and which are overhyped. The media certainly doesn't help, making every storm sound like a "We're all going to die!" event. It makes it hard sometimes to rationally consider what the real dangers are.

 

I've been keeping an eye on it, as my parents, while not on the island, are staying (though they aren't in an evacuation zone). Even with the 20-25ft surge in Galveston Bay, they should be fine, but more than that, and it will be close. So yeah, I'm worried about them, but I would have stayed in their position, too. Evacuating has risks, too, especially when tons of people leave who don't need to.

[jamnkats]

They can't GET to them! Over an hour ago, the coast guard had received over 150 calls requesting rescues! They've only been able to fly in and get less than 20. Even Geraldo Rivera was caught off guard when he was standing in an area that suddenly a SURGE came in and knocked him off his feet and sent him rolling. People are underestimating how FAST and FURIOUS the surge is coming in. This is history in the making. Never a storm quite like this before. Evacuating 16-18 hours before the arrival of the storm is NORMALLY soon enough. Many of the people being rescued are people who got caught on the flooded roads *trying* to evacuate.

 

I totally disagree with this. If you live in hurricane country is is YOUR (the general you not *you* in particular) responsibility to take in ALL methods of information WRT weather that will affect you. TWO DAYS ago, the foremost weather blogger, Dr. Masters, was calling for mandatory evacuations. I find it incredibly irresponsible to blame TWC and their lot when there are many additional sources of excellent information. We have been watching Ike for weeks now - ever since he was a blob, then invest off the African coast. I consider it my DUTY to my family to watch, read and listen to many sources of information to protect my family. If I failed in this duty I would hold MYSELF responsible, unless there was not one credible news source to inform me otherwise.

[Mamagistra]

I totally disagree with this. If you live in hurricane country is is YOUR (the general you not *you* in particular) responsibility to take in ALL methods of information WRT weather that will affect you. TWO DAYS ago, the foremost weather blogger, Dr. Masters, was calling for mandatory evacuations. I find it incredibly irresponsible to blame TWC and their lot when there are many additional sources of excellent information. We have been watching Ike for weeks now - ever since he was a blob, then invest off the African coast. I consider it my DUTY to my family to watch, read and listen to many sources of information to protect my family. If I failed in this duty I would hold MYSELF responsible, unless there was not one credible news source to inform me otherwise.

 

With all due respect, most people in these parts do the best they can. After the one-two punch of Katrina and Rita in 2005--the latter of which caused more devastation during the evacuation than during the actual storm itself--I understand why folks hesitate to leave.

 

Really it just stinks for everyone.

[nakitty]

deleted

[chiguirre]

:iagree:

 

Remember that many of those who have to decide whether or not to go are veterans of the Rita debacle. More than 100 people died evacuating while less than 10 died from the storm. That would give anyone pause before hopping in the car. The high water this morning caught even the local news crews by surprise, and these are the guys who stand on the seawall getting pictures during every storm.

 

I just hope that Ike doesn't exceed expectations when it does make landfall and crosses downtown Houston, where people were advised to "hunker down".

[Rich with Kids]

It is very, very, hard for thousands of people to respond to an evacuation order in 12 hours.

 

But this is why we are told to be prepared at the beginning of hurricane season. This is the first year we actually prepared, thankfully. I would think if you live on an island, you'd at least have everything ready just in case when the threat begins. I don't think the mayor risked anyone's life. She gave the order, Galveston provided the transportation, if needed. If they were unprepared, I feel they should have been paying closer attention to the news coverage.

[Robin in Tx]

you live in hurricane country is is YOUR (the general you not *you* in particular) responsibility to take in ALL methods of information WRT weather that will affect you. TWO DAYS ago, the foremost weather blogger, Dr. Masters, was calling for mandatory evacuations. I find it incredibly irresponsible to blame TWC and their lot when there are many additional sources of excellent information

 

I did not blame TWC - where are you getting that? I threw blame at the mayor of Galveston. Galveston's own mayor said on Wednesday night... that is not a typo - WEDNESDAY night - that it was not necessary to call for an evacuation and that they were planning to open shelters in the city. When residents hear that from their mayor, they tend to ignore other media who have been known to hype storms in the past. She didn't switch plans until yesterday. None of the evacuation orders said be out by Thursday night. Some even said be out by noon Friday. Well, we all know now that noon Friday was too late for many.

[TXMomof4]

I was just watching fox news and there's a bar open on Galveston Island, facing the ocean, with people drinking and partying. Those people should be arrested and those bar owners should be in trouble.

 

I wonder what that does to your life insurance policy if you choose to stay in a situation like that.....

[Robin in Tx]

But this is why we are told to be prepared at the beginning of hurricane season. This is the first year we actually prepared, thankfully. I would think if you live on an island, you'd at least have everything ready just in case when the threat begins. I don't think the mayor risked anyone's life. She gave the order, Galveston provided the transportation, if needed. If they were unprepared, I feel they should have been paying closer attention to the news coverage.

 

 

The mayor said all week, and as late as Wednesday night, that shelters would be open and that an evacuation was not necessary. Just because you have the SUPPLIES ready to prepare for a storm and/or evacuate, that doesn't mean you can actually get it together and implement your plan in a few short hours. You betcha she put lives at risk. And she is getting a lot of flack for it, too. If she had ordered the evacuation on Wednesday, the same day that other counties were ordering their evacuation, businesses would have been closed on Thursday, and folks could have stayed home that day and gotten their affairs and gotten off the island by Thursday night. There will always be people who stay, and you can't do anything about them, but most of the rescues today were of people who honestly thought that they had till around noon today to evacuate, especially since it's low tide this morning.

 

Still, we are focusing too much on whether or not the people are trying to ride out the storm... the big story here is how rapidly and how far in advance the surge is coming in, preventing people from evacuating in what would otherwise be a reasonable timeframe.

 

P.S. You and I live so far away from the major impact area that we can't even begin to compare what we have to do when a storm is coming to what they have to do... it's apples and oranges, really. My sister lives on the first floor of the Victorian Condos, in a one bedroom efficiency. It took her hours to get stuff packed into the car and to grab her pictures, etc., (things she didn't want to lose)... and she was pretty well prepared for hurricane season.

 

It sounds like what people are suggesting in this thread is that people should ignore their elected official's recommendations and pay attention to what other people are saying instead, and that the elected officials shouldn't feel some weight of resopnsibility for their citizens' well being because everyone who has half a brain knows to ignore them. That's insane!!

[Robin in Tx]

I was just watching fox news and there's a bar open on Galveston Island, facing the ocean, with people drinking and partying. Those people should be arrested and those bar owners should be in trouble.

 

I wonder what that does to your life insurance policy if you choose to stay in a situation like that.....

 

Some of them won't need life insurancne after today, probably.

 

There will always be people who flat out will not go... of course, the mayor of Galveston has now opened up Ball High as a shelter. If the mayor thinks it's okay to shelter in place, why shouldn't they? When the storm comes in later, they'll either go home or to the shelter. It's not due for almost 12 hours.

 

But there are still fools... I'm not denying their existance!

[K-FL]

. The media certainly doesn't help, making every storm sound like a "We're all going to die!" event. It makes it hard sometimes to rationally consider what the real dangers are.

 

Living on an island 2.5 hrs from the mainland, I totally agree with this! Every time a hurricane forms, the Miami news folks are camped out down here, even when there's NOTHING to see! The officials here are overly cautious since there's only one road out, which has the same effect of "crying wolf" at every storm. Some folks won't go regardless of what they're told, some evacuate as an excuse for a mini-vacation, some really should live somewhere else where there are different natural disasters. :)

[Robin in Tx]

Now I just saw the mayor of Galveston talking about such and such building/house survived cat 3 and higher storms... and this is just a cat 2...

 

Everyone knows that the issue with this storm is the water and the size of the wind field, not the actual wind speed. All the forecasters are saying that this has the storm surge of a cat 4/5 storm.

 

Unbelievable. No wonder everyone down there is so complacent. They're all relating to the SS scale of cat 2... which measures wind speed only. One local CBS station was saying last night that he expected it to be a cat 1 at landfall. That did NOT help with motivating people to take the evacuation order seriously,.

[6packofun]

Why would anyone on that island NOT evacuate? Do they not study what happened there 100+ years ago????? Or in New Orleans???

 

I wonder if they think that Gustav wasn't "as bad" as predicted and *many* of the people who were evacuated in Louisiana actually complained that they were forced to leave and had to spend several days in school gyms or whatever (rather than possibly die!).

 

I pray that those with children would just suck it up and at least pack up the minivan and, if nothing else, just keep driving north until they hear that things are OK! Heck, if we had no other choice we'd spend the night in our vehicle at a rest stop, for pete's sake!

[jamnkats]

It sounds like what people are suggesting in this thread is that people should ignore their elected official's recommendations and pay attention to what other people are saying instead, and that the elected officials shouldn't feel some weight of resopnsibility for their citizens' well being because everyone who has half a brain knows to ignore them. That's insane!!

 

Maybe it is because I haven't lived in the US for 4 years, but yes. That is exactly what we do. We do not have the luxury of oodles of government bodies analyzing this and that and various weather channels advising this and that. We have one government body which gives official recommendations.

 

I have never trusted my family's life and well-being to a government official and even if I lived in the US I wouldn't. I do my own research, I compose an opinion based on VARIOUS sources and include seasoned meteorologists instead of a Mayor. Then I make a decision based on facts, history, various opinions of various meteorologists and the NHC. I educate myself and know what GOM, BOC, CONUS, TCHP, SSTs, MCV, EWRC, LLC, COC, etc. all mean and what how they apply to hurricanes. I don't wait until 12 hours before landfall and panic because I haven't been following the storm since it was an invest off the African coast. And if you're CONUS, you should, at the very LEAST, have been following the storm once it hit the ABCs or Hispanola.

 

I'm not saying the mayor is blameless, but I firmly believe that people need to take responsibility for their own lives instead of blaming the government that they weren't hand-held and told what to do.

[clwcain]

Maybe it is because I haven't lived in the US for 4 years, but yes. That is exactly what we do. We do not have the luxury of oodles of government bodies analyzing this and that and various weather channels advising this and that. We have one government body which gives official recommendations.

 

I have never trusted my family's life and well-being to a government official and even if I lived in the US I wouldn't. <snip>

 

I'm not saying the mayor is blameless, but I firmly believe that people need to take responsibility for their own lives instead of blaming the government that they weren't hand-held and told what to do.

 

:iagree::iagree::iagree:

And I'll add that I don't want government busybodies offering "help".

 

Just go away. Live free or die. Don't tread on me.

[jamnkats]

Oh man. The dry air that had compromised his eye (after hitting Cuba) is gone and convection has completely wrapped around. His eye is complete again. This has been speculated all afternoon so I'm not surprised but I was hoping it wouldn't happen.

 

This is going to be very very very very bad.

 

I'm really feeling for the folks in Texas. We're back under convection from Ike after having a sunny morning and the seas have still not calmed. And we're on the Caribbean. This is a mother of a storm...but this was speculated right when he developed off Cape Verde.

[jamnkats]

You know, I really need to apologise for my arrogance here. I've been outside the US culture so long that it doesn't occur to me that there are elderly and challenged folk who do rely on government officials for their information. That just isn't the case here. If, for some reason an elderly person is on their own, that person is looked after by the entire community and we'd say, "c'mon abuelo, let's go to the guardia and wait for the storm to pass" and we'd probably be 4th in line to do so. :)

 

We may not have govermnental social services but we definitely have community social services and no-one is left to flap in the wind.

 

I should have realized that before I posted in my fevor and apologize.

[Robin in Tx]

Yeah, but here, at times like this, listening to authorities about evacuation is exactly what people are supposed to do. If there wasn't reliable information and an orderly plan of evacuation, it would be total chaos. Rita taught us that. Over a hundred people died during the evacuation. Having reliable guidance from authorities on these issues is paramount. Following the recommendation of authorities when they make calls about things like evacuations is very important.

 

Many who didn't evacuate are low income. They probably don't have the resources you and I have. And they do have a mayor saying things like, "my home survived a category 3 hurricane and this is only category 2." One news station said all yesterday evening and last night that they expected the storm to decrease in intensity to a cat 1 by landfall. If you don't have cable, internet, etc., and the basic 3 channels is where you get your info, then this is the stuff you're being told. The word did get out to evacuate yesterday, but I'm telling you because I live here and I'm watching it first hand and my sister evacuated from Galveston Island yesterday... there has been complacency with this storm becuase it's only a cat 2, and people like my sister who is careful to follow information the way you are and who made the decision to evacuate the night before the mayor ordered it, are shaking their head in amazement that she didn't act sooner and that she offered to open shelters. Galveston never opens shelters for a hurricane! If you open shelters, it encourages people to stay.

 

I think even she is underestimating the power of this storm because it is only cat 2... she outright revealed that herself during an interview tonight.

[Camy-7 boybarians 1 lady]

Hugs, Robin! Glad to see you still have power! Praying for you and yours.

 

Love,

Camy

[StaceyinLA]

I know someone (and I can't remember who it was, the governor maybe but don't hold me to that) was telling the people who CHOSE to stay to write their social security numbers on their arms so they could be identified afterward. He said staying was "sure death."

 

I'm in Louisiana. We are far enough from the coastline that we don't normally evacuate. However, I did learn something from Gustav and that is if I have the chance in the future, I will. Our house was okay, but the storm was tough here and we lost 5 trees (any one of which could've hit our home and killed us all). We were without power for a week. There was nothing around here open. It's really frustrating. I've been through Andrew, Katrina, Rita, Gustav, and we've lost power and had lots of wind/rain from Ike. I just don't think it's worth it to stick around.