The herd immunity theory...

[Bootsie]

4 hours ago, ktgrok said:

Oh wow...that's like 59 degrees F! i'd freeze!We do change clothes, but remember, we don't have a lot of cold days, so we don't have much in the way of warm clothing. I don't own a bodywarmer or know what one is, I don't own gloves, or a snood - not sure what that is either, lol. 

Kids going out to school for the day will have on jeans and a t-shirt and sweatshirt, and then take off the sweatshirt in the afternoon, but be sweating and wish they had on shorts. 

(I should add I have sensory issues and despise wearing long sleeves, so that influences things. When 90 percent of the year it is hot enough for bare feet and tank tops it is hard to adjust to layers of long sleeves)

Having grown up in the south, I never had good winter or layering clothing.  And, the humidity level was so high that layers did become suffocating, especially with heavy, non-circulating air (even if it was cold air).  Now that I have traveled a bit to colder climates and invested in some clothing that was meant to be layered, I realized the fabrics and cuts of clothing designed to be layered can make a great difference in the comfort level of layering.  I have also realized the importance of keeping my neck warm to my overall comfort level when it is cool.

[Pen]

1 hour ago, Bootsie said:

Switzerland had a 7-day rolling average of about 330 cases per day at the beginning of October.  It is now over 2000, with over 8000 new cases being reported today.  (Adjusting for population, that would be over 330,000 cases in one day in the US.)  

 

Yikes.  Today looks like it could reach 9000 - unless we are close to day end for count purposes. 

I wish there was a new cases relative to population column, and also an easier way to determine significant cases versus positive tests but of possibly totally asymptomatic people. It makes it hard to compare what is happening now to some months ago if more testing is the driver of more “cases” 

 

[Not_a_Number]

5 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Yikes.  Today looks like it could reach 9000 - unless we are close to day end for count purposes. 

I wish there was a new cases relative to population column, and also an easier way to determine significant cases versus positive tests but of possibly totally asymptomatic people. It makes it hard to compare what is happening now to some months ago if more testing is the driver of more “cases” 

 

Yeah, I’d love more positivity trackers.

[ktgrok]

3 hours ago, Bootsie said:

Having grown up in the south, I never had good winter or layering clothing.  And, the humidity level was so high that layers did become suffocating, especially with heavy, non-circulating air (even if it was cold air).  Now that I have traveled a bit to colder climates and invested in some clothing that was meant to be layered, I realized the fabrics and cuts of clothing designed to be layered can make a great difference in the comfort level of layering.  I have also realized the importance of keeping my neck warm to my overall comfort level when it is cool.

My mom did buy me a jacket this year! Last two winters I had a thin hoodie type thing, without the hood, lol. And two long sleeved shirts. And one cardigan. 

I was cold a lot, lol. 

[kbutton]

9 hours ago, frogger said:

I always bring a coat to the south to put on when I go inside. Honestly, how heat and ac is used in this country feels a bit ridiculous.

I mean I can understand restaurants since cooks are standing over a stove but everywhere, just no. 

I biked 180 miles through Alabama and Georgia the May before last in upper 90's weather and found that I appeared to be doing better than the locals. One admitted that AC makes them weak as we chatted in front of a grocery store. I feel that though it is a safety issue, especially for the elderly, it is vastly overused. 

I used to be used to no AC (never had it growing up except in a few public buildings), but then I got allergies and needed it to breath. Still did okay when the allergies were better dealt with (shots), but then perimenopause hit. It's amazing how hot I am no matter what I do--it's not just in flashes. I exercise at least 5 times per week, and there are days that it takes two hours for me to cool down to any degree at all afterwards--I don't sweat much while I'm exercising, but I turn beat red and just stay hot (I have always been this way about exercise, but peri made it 10x worse). It doesn't matter if I'm in good shape or poor shape--I don't cool effectively. I am very heat intolerant now, and we try not to overuse the AC. I swell up, and I get migraines in the heat. It's not much fun. We do keep the heat fairly low and layer up. I am a big believer in long johns  and wool socks during the winter.

I think a lot depends on humidity, how able the house is to cool/warm when opened up, whether it's one story or two, insulation level, etc. 

I believe there is a concept called colloquial architecture(?) that is related to how homes used to be positioned and designed to take advantage of natural ways to heat and cool, and modern homes completely disregard those factors. 

[ktgrok]

28 minutes ago, kbutton said:

I used to be used to no AC (never had it growing up except in a few public buildings), but then I got allergies and needed it to breath.

I believe there is a concept called colloquial architecture(?) that is related to how homes used to be positioned and designed to take advantage of natural ways to heat and cool, and modern homes completely disregard those factors. 

Yes, we all have pollen allergies here, so that also limits how much I can keep windows open. And with windows closed, it gets stuffy without AC on. 

And most of all, yes to the architecture thing! I grew up without AC until I was in Jr High. But the house was older and was designed for a cross breeze, had big bahama shutters shading the windows to keep the sun out, etc. Our current house has ZERO cross breeze anywhere in the house - if you purposely positioned windows to maximize sun exposure and minimize any chance of a real breeze, you'd get this house. Oh, and then in the winter, the vaulted ceilings mean it is super expensive to heat. dumb dumb dumb. 

[ieta_cassiopeia]

Local hospitals in my area of the UK now have more COVID patients than at any point during the spring wave. Autumn only started a month ago. It's been linked to schools and universities re-opening, plus a government scheme to get more people eating in restaurants and the weather turning cooler.

 

There's a lot of fatalism on the streets - people have a sense of "It doesn't matter if I follow the rules as we'll all die anyway" or, conversely, "None of this is happening, it's all a myth, so no point following the rules" as a denial-based coping mechanism. There was a lot of trust in the spring but it's all gone, and I feel more limited in what I can do than during lockdown. Actual lockdown, I feel, will not be far in the future.

[Pen]

6 minutes ago, ieta_cassiopeia said:

Local hospitals in my area of the UK now have more COVID patients than at any point during the spring wave. Autumn only started a month ago. It's been linked to schools and universities re-opening, plus a government scheme to get more people eating in restaurants and the weather turning cooler.

 

There's a lot of fatalism on the streets - people have a sense of "It doesn't matter if I follow the rules as we'll all die anyway" or, conversely, "None of this is happening, it's all a myth, so no point following the rules" as a denial-based coping mechanism. There was a lot of trust in the spring but it's all gone, and I feel more limited in what I can do than during lockdown. Actual lockdown, I feel, will not be far in the future.

 

I have been thinking that while it did not stop with coming of summer — that it did show a good bit of seasonality, aside from air conditioning and closed buildings distorting that somewhat. 

 

Is it still big in the news where you are or has it dwindled in news despite increase in reality? 

[Pen]

Czech Republic having troubles

[Monica_in_Switzerland]

On 10/19/2020 at 8:24 PM, Pen said:

 

Yikes.  Today looks like it could reach 9000 - unless we are close to day end for count purposes. 

I wish there was a new cases relative to population column, and also an easier way to determine significant cases versus positive tests but of possibly totally asymptomatic people. It makes it hard to compare what is happening now to some months ago if more testing is the driver of more “cases” 

 

 

On 10/19/2020 at 8:30 PM, Not_a_Number said:

Yeah, I’d love more positivity trackers.

 

Not sure if you're referring specifically to Switzerland, but our positive test rate is now at 24-26%!!!  This summer, it was something like 5-10%.  While hospitalizations are lower than this Spring, multiple hospitals have announced they are at critical capacity levels and people are beginning to be transported to other cantons for treatment.  We are expecting large announcements from the federal gov on Wednesday- they will be announcing how much control will remain with individual cantons and how much will be federalized (in the Spring, all decisions were federalized for the first wave under our pandemic law, post-peak they were re-delegated to the cantons).  

[Not_a_Number]

6 hours ago, Monica_in_Switzerland said:

Not sure if you're referring specifically to Switzerland, but our positive test rate is now at 24-26%!!!  This summer, it was something like 5-10%.  While hospitalizations are lower than this Spring, multiple hospitals have announced they are at critical capacity levels and people are beginning to be transported to other cantons for treatment.  We are expecting large announcements from the federal gov on Wednesday- they will be announcing how much control will remain with individual cantons and how much will be federalized (in the Spring, all decisions were federalized for the first wave under our pandemic law, post-peak they were re-delegated to the cantons).  

I wasn't referring to Switzerland, but yikes 😞 . 

Unfortunately, Europe bore out my prediction that the only reason the pandemic seemed under control is that the summers were nice and people were outside 😕. Sigh. 

[JennyD]

I am coming in late to this thread and have not read the entire thing; however, if it hasn't been mentioned before I warmly recommend the discussion of herd immunity beginning at 57:27 of episode #675 of This Week in Virology.  They talk at some length about the history of smallpox and why -- despite millennia of unchecked spread -- it ultimately took a vaccine to bring it under control (and in the case of smallpox, eradicate it entirely).  

[Lady Florida.]

Like most of the Covid thread, this one moves fast and these posts are a week old. But...

On 10/17/2020 at 9:07 PM, Not_a_Number said:

 

But I do think Florida/Texas/warm places have an advantage over the Northeast in the winter, since people can still be outside. 

I don't know about Texas but A/C is on year round here. There are a few days in winter where we can turn it off and open windows but those aren't many, Also we've had really mild winters lately and have barely had any cold fronts make it this far (maybe North Florida, but not as far as Central and South FL). This year they're saying it's going to be another mild winter.

Also, as for being outside, Floridians don't do a lot of outside activities in summer because it's too hot. What outside activities we do engage in usually include being around water - boating, swimming, etc. - so you can cool off. 

And there's no such thing as cool summer nights. Our summer nights are hot and humid. 

What that means is we haven't been spending the summer outdoors. Our true outdoor season is at least a month away. When outdoor dining started in summer I couldn't fathom the idea of eating outside in our heat and humidity. Most people who have summer cookouts will cook outside on the grill but eat inside in the A/C. 

Our numbers went through the roof in summer when we were all doing indoor things. 

 

 

On 10/18/2020 at 8:27 AM, ktgrok said:

Not really....people in their homes may turn off the AC ...honestly often only for part of the day, but it will still be on in regular businesses, schools, etc. Or the heat will. Most of us have centra AC set to "auto" and it will just switch back and froth from heat to air and back again, lol. 

We are used to a very narrow temperature range.. so for many that means the heat on first thing in the morning, then open windows, then a/c on in the afternoon. (Ok, so maybe only us natives use the heat in the morning, lol....I don't do cold well)

Yes, this. I'll run the heat for a short time in the morning but by noon or sooner, the A/C is running. We have a very short window of time when we can just open the windows and let in fresh air, and even then it's usually not all day. We like to leave our bedroom window open a few inches overnight in winter when it's cool enough. 

I don't own a coat. I do have a pair of gloves but can't remember the last time I wore them. I don't own any warm hats. I have 2 sweatshirts, no sweatpants, and a few nice pullover sweaters. I rarely get to wear them. My "winter coat" is a calf length sweater. 

 

On 10/18/2020 at 8:56 AM, sassenach said:

Lol, about the temp range. I was just talking with someone about the pool we had when we lived in Florida and I said something about our solar heating and she looked at me funny and was like, “why would you need to heat the pool in that weather?” And all I could do was shrug and say, “we were pretty cold sensitive when we lived there.” 

Well, we get a lot of rain in summer and that cools off the pool temperature. A pool can feel freezing after one of our summer storms dumps a bunch of rain into it! Heated pools aren't really uncommon here and the idea of heated pools in Florida isn't as crazy as some might think. 

[Not_a_Number]

22 minutes ago, Lady Florida. said:

Also, as for being outside, Floridians don't do a lot of outside activities in summer because it's too hot. What outside activities we do engage in usually include being around water - boating, swimming, etc. - so you can cool off. 

Yeah, I meant that the winter actually has MORE people outside than the summer. That's true in Texas, anyway, so I thought it'd be true in Florida. I thought this would give Florida and Texas a real winter advantage. 

[Bootsie]

21 minutes ago, Lady Florida. said:

Like most of the Covid thread, this one moves fast and these posts are a week old. But...

I don't know about Texas but A/C is on year round here. There are a few days in winter where we can turn it off and open windows but those aren't many, Also we've had really mild winters lately and have barely had any cold fronts make it this far (maybe North Florida, but not as far as Central and South FL). This year they're saying it's going to be another mild winter.

Also, as for being outside, Floridians don't do a lot of outside activities in summer because it's too hot. What outside activities we do engage in usually include being around water - boating, swimming, etc. - so you can cool off. 

And there's no such thing as cool summer nights. Our summer nights are hot and humid. 

What that means is we haven't been spending the summer outdoors. Our true outdoor season is at least a month away. When outdoor dining started in summer I couldn't fathom the idea of eating outside in our heat and humidity. Most people who have summer cookouts will cook outside on the grill but eat inside in the A/C. 

Our numbers went through the roof in summer when we were all doing indoor things. 

 

 

Yes, this. I'll run the heat for a short time in the morning but by noon or sooner, the A/C is running. We have a very short window of time when we can just open the windows and let in fresh air, and even then it's usually not all day. We like to leave our bedroom window open a few inches overnight in winter when it's cool enough. 

I don't own a coat. I do have a pair of gloves but can't remember the last time I wore them. I don't own any warm hats. I have 2 sweatshirts, no sweatpants, and a few nice pullover sweaters. I rarely get to wear them. My "winter coat" is a calf length sweater. 

 

Well, we get a lot of rain in summer and that cools off the pool temperature. A pool can feel freezing after one of our summer storms dumps a bunch of rain into it! Heated pools aren't really uncommon here and the idea of heated pools in Florida isn't as crazy as some might think. 

I am in Texas--It is rainy, windy, and the temps are not going to get out of the 30's todays--wind chill right now is 28--it is colder here than where DD is in the Austrian Alps and getting snow.  So, it can vary a lot--next week we may be wearing shorts again with the AC on.  

I was hoping that wearing a mask would not be comfortable, compared to in the summer heat.  But, I had to go into a building and nearly suffocated with the heat on while wearing a mask.  

[ieta_cassiopeia]

On 10/26/2020 at 5:15 PM, Pen said:

 

I have been thinking that while it did not stop with coming of summer — that it did show a good bit of seasonality, aside from air conditioning and closed buildings distorting that somewhat. 

 

Is it still big in the news where you are or has it dwindled in news despite increase in reality? 

Sorry it's taken so long to respond. It's the #1 topic of conversation in the news (#2 being the US election every single day, which is a little odd considering I live in the UK - surely there must occasionally be something happening in the UK that is not COVID-related?)

Latest news is that the UK is likely to go into its 2nd national lockdown at some point next week (Monday is likely) as local restrictions, even "Tier 3" which is just short of lockdown, have failed to have any effect on national infection rates (though in a couple of university cities, they were effective in reducing that specific area's issue - possibly the difference between neglectful students starting term and people in poverty who are forced to take risks to get their daily needs met?) Due to the delay in imposing the lockdown, it is likely to be needed for at least one month, and potentially until next March.

Finding the right masks for the right job took some experimentation. Primarily, learning the elastane masks are a disaster for anything more strenuous than a good brisk sit. All-cotton ones are better for walking (let alone formal exercise such as running - and yes, I have found masks I can run in).

A lot of people did get outside more for the summer in the UK because the weather was decent (unusally for the British summer). Mostly window shopping, though cycling estimates report a 300% increase this year over last year and walking has also significantly increased. Of course, all of this involves getting fresh air, which even in almost-zero-air-conditioning UK, is associated with less transmission for a variety of airborne illnesses.

Everywhere in Europe is having troubles of one sort or another, though the exact trouble depends on country:

- Czechia/the Czech Republic had a total failure of track-and-trace (even the UK's has fared better, if only because in some places, councils decided to make their own system and are getting 90% tracing success where that's happened vs <50% in some areas for the more expensive 1985 Excel-based government system).

- Spain did fine until national lockdown was released... ...at which point everyone went back to what they were doing before. In most other places, there was at least some reduction in risky activities persisting post-lockdown.

- The Netherlands ran out of tests.

- Germany has had some notable super-spreader events, and, perhaps not to the extent of Singapore, also some difficulties relating to migrant housing being subpar.

- France had a civil disobedience campaign because the left-wing leader is disliked by the super-right-wing opposition.

- Italy has a prominent anti-mask, anti-vaxx, anti-pretty-much-everything-that-might-help-with-COVID party in opposition, along with a leading party that doesn't dare do much to contradict it in the press. (For spreading messages, that's about as much good as having the prominent anti-helpful-stuff party in power...) Even the weather still being (mostly) nice and people still being outside hasn't helped much as a result.

Also, most of Europe has schools and universities go back somewhere between late August and early October, both of which are significant transmission vectors.

[Ausmumof3]

https://fas.org/blogs/fas/2020/10/social-media-conversations-in-support-of-herd-immunity-are-driven-by-bots/
 

I don’t know much about the federation of American Scientist but according to this article almost half of the social media profiles retweeting and sharing stuff relating to herd immunity are bots.  There’s more of a breakdown in this article.

Every time one of these articles has come out in the last few months - the HCQ ones and the doctors in Texas and The Great Barrington one all seemed to have a tonne of tweets with very similar formats so it doesn’t really seem surprising.  It seemed too coordinated to be random.  

[Matryoshka]

2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://fas.org/blogs/fas/2020/10/social-media-conversations-in-support-of-herd-immunity-are-driven-by-bots/
 

I don’t know much about the federation of American Scientist but according to this article almost half of the social media profiles retweeting and sharing stuff relating to herd immunity are bots.  There’s more of a breakdown in this article.

Every time one of these articles has come out in the last few months - the HCQ ones and the doctors in Texas and The Great Barrington one all seemed to have a tonne of tweets with very similar formats so it doesn’t really seem surprising.  It seemed too coordinated to be random.  

If we have the technology to make these bots, there should be some tech to stop them and their sowing of willful disinformation.  I think social media's allowing this to go on pretty much unimpeded has been a big reason for the sowing of chaos over the past 4+ years.  We have got to be able to do better, and unfortunately government regulation of any kind isn't going to be it, as the current one seems to be complicit, and the SM companies seem to be fine with the upticks in likes and ad revenue and have been also turning a blind eye. 

[Jean in Newcastle]

7 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

If we have the technology to make these bots, there should be some tech to stop them and their sowing of willful disinformation.  I think social media's allowing this to go on pretty much unimpeded has been a big reason for the sowing of chaos over the past 4+ years.  We have got to be able to do better, and unfortunately government regulation of any kind isn't going to be it, as the current one seems to be complicit, and the SM companies seem to be fine with the upticks in likes and ad revenue and have been also turning a blind eye. 

And there are tons of uncritical readers who will “like” and continue to spread this nonsense because it says what they want it to say. 

[Not_a_Number]

3 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

And there are tons of uncritical readers who will “like” and continue to spread this nonsense because it says what they want it to say. 

It has really shocked me how susceptible people are to disinformation. Including totally ridiculous disinformation that feels like it to go against their priors. 

[ieta_cassiopeia]

43 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

If we have the technology to make these bots, there should be some tech to stop them and their sowing of willful disinformation.  I think social media's allowing this to go on pretty much unimpeded has been a big reason for the sowing of chaos over the past 4+ years.  We have got to be able to do better, and unfortunately government regulation of any kind isn't going to be it, as the current one seems to be complicit, and the SM companies seem to be fine with the upticks in likes and ad revenue and have been also turning a blind eye. 

They've tried - less than we might like - but even minor resistance from Twitter to certain content being submitted and spread has resulted in freedom-of-speech cases going to court. as well as Section 230 modifications being proposed with the intentional effect of restricting the ability of social media companies to edit what content they output. (While I don't think anyone involved deliberately intends suppression of bot content to be the reduced behaviour, that is likely to be one of the effects).

 

It's going to be a tough job...

 

35 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

It has really shocked me how susceptible people are to disinformation. Including totally ridiculous disinformation that feels like it to go against their priors. 

 

I have a completely unscientific hypothesis that some people prefer pretty lies to ugly truths (and beauty is in the eye of the beholder).

[Not_a_Number]

5 minutes ago, ieta_cassiopeia said:

I have a completely unscientific hypothesis that some people prefer pretty lies to ugly truths (and beauty is in the eye of the beholder).

My rather uglier way of saying that is that people tend to believe whatever they want to. I think it takes a mixture of talent and teaching to overcome that. 

[Pen]

3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://fas.org/blogs/fas/2020/10/social-media-conversations-in-support-of-herd-immunity-are-driven-by-bots/
 

I don’t know much about the federation of American Scientist but according to this article almost half of the social media profiles retweeting and sharing stuff relating to herd immunity are bots.  There’s more of a breakdown in this article.

Every time one of these articles has come out in the last few months - the HCQ ones and the doctors in Texas and The Great Barrington one all seemed to have a tonne of tweets with very similar formats so it doesn’t really seem surprising.  It seemed too coordinated to be random.  

 

I have tended only to use Twitter when referred there by people on WTM. 😉

 

DrBeen which I know video doesn’t fit well in your life had some interesting comments on what doctors find may help their patients irl in a recent Q&A session.  I realize that type thing is anecdotal even with international contacts, but personally I find it more helpful than Twitter

 

 

[Ausmumof3]

3 hours ago, Pen said:

 

I have tended only to use Twitter when referred there by people on WTM. 😉

 

DrBeen which I know video doesn’t fit well in your life had some interesting comments on what doctors find may help their patients irl in a recent Q&A session.  I realize that type thing is anecdotal even with international contacts, but personally I find it more helpful than Twitter

 

 

There’s plenty of legit epidemiologists sharing good information there as well, but you do have to know how to filter.