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gardenmom5

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I read a thread on Twitter about the risk of long covid in the population long-term. Statistically, about a quarter of the population will have LC if this keeps running as is, for the next 10 years. That's using the conservative number of 2% risk of LC.

It just seems crazy that we're happy to create this kind of world to hand onto our kids. We grew up in a world where infectious disease was, for the majority, not a serious threat. Now here you go, because we couldn't be bothered to take precaution?

I am seeing fewer people wearing masks than ever. Will go into stores and I will be the only one masked. I really can't see masks continuing unless there is some sort of mandate. They will just fade away, and we will accept our 100 deaths a day, and wonder why no one has grandparents anymore and there's a teacher/nurse/hospitality worker shortage . . .

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17 hours ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

Extremely low cortisol is what I got AFTER getting mono and then fibromyalgia. I don’t think that it came before the virus. (Different virus but possibly similar mechanism). 

Yikes. Low cortisol is not great either. 

17 hours ago, Laura Corin said:

From my reading, their use of 'predictor' is exactly that  - the Covid produced low cortisol in some people.  This post-viral low cortisol reading predicted Long Covid.

Well, rats! I had hoped I might finally have some use for all of my excess cortisol.

37 minutes ago, bookbard said:

I read a thread on Twitter about the risk of long covid in the population long-term. Statistically, about a quarter of the population will have LC if this keeps running as is, for the next 10 years. That's using the conservative number of 2% risk of LC.

That has to be debilitating long-term.

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https://www.bbc.com/news/health-62548336
 

The UK has become the first country to approve a dual vaccine which tackles both the original Covid virus and the newer Omicron variant.

The upgraded vaccine should be available as an autumn booster and give better protection against variants. 

Moderna said it could supply doses in the next few weeks, but exactly who will get them has yet to be announced. 

All over-50s and people in high-risk groups will be offered some form of booster from next month.

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12 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

The UK has become the first country to approve a dual vaccine which tackles both the original Covid virus and the newer Omicron variant.

 

wow, I hadn't heard about this!

Numbers have really dropped in NSW, both case numbers and deaths, which is good to see. We're expected another big rain event in September, so this might be the quiet time before the next flood/covid wave. 

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Cases are a long way down here (but so is testing). Hospitalisations did a big drop about a week and a half ago when they changed the reporting method but have climbed again steadily since then. Hard to say how much was due to the reporting method change but they seem to have finally turned around and be slowly heading down again, this time with a more steady/consistent pattern. There’s no real certainty but predictions for a Christmas wave. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a mini-wave sometime toward the end of September/beginning of October.

I have a couple of events coming up that I’m undecided about. One probably involves indoor eating with a crowd. I do want the kids to start having some level of normality and a few more adventures but I’m unsure about this one. The venue is fairly well spaced and has plenty of windows but I doubt they will be opened.

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2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

 

I have a couple of events coming up that I’m undecided about. One probably involves indoor eating with a crowd. I do want the kids to start having some level of normality and a few more adventures but I’m unsure about this one. The venue is fairly well spaced and has plenty of windows but I doubt they will be opened.

I find that my CO2 monitor is super-valuable for decisions like this.  If the level is below my threshold, we might take the risk. If the level is high, we politely excuse ourselves and decline to eat indoors.  Obviously works better for situations with some flexibility (like, are we going to eat in the museum cafe during our visit, or shall we get take-out and eat outside), not so much for fancy affairs for which one has RSVP'd for a formal meal.

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3 hours ago, wathe said:

I find that my CO2 monitor is super-valuable for decisions like this.  If the level is below my threshold, we might take the risk. If the level is high, we politely excuse ourselves and decline to eat indoors.  Obviously works better for situations with some flexibility (like, are we going to eat in the museum cafe during our visit, or shall we get take-out and eat outside), not so much for fancy affairs for which one has RSVP'd for a formal meal.

Yeah its a catered event so I have to RSVP. I’m so tired of these decisions 😞 

I know it’s nothing compared to what so many people have dealt with but I feel like at this point my kids are missing out on everything while most people are back to normal and it’s been a long long time. For my youngest covid has been a quarter of his life now.

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16 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I know it’s nothing compared to what so many people have dealt with but I feel like at this point my kids are missing out on everything while most people are back to normal and it’s been a long long time.

I know what you mean, I feel a lot of guilt around my kids. My daughter would like to return to school for the last term and year 6 formal and all the end of year celebrations. Which are all risky. But then I look at my friend whose whole family has been badly and permanently affected by covid, which was caught from a school event. I can't take the risk. 

I've already started to think about Christmas and covid too. Last year was really big, about 50 people, and technically all outdoors - except not really, people in and out of the kitchen, bathrooms, the kids were upstairs playing computer, and even the outdoors stuff was everyone sitting at one big table. I've already begun to hint to extended family that I'm not comfortable with it tthis year. 

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On 8/19/2022 at 11:31 PM, bookbard said:

I know what you mean, I feel a lot of guilt around my kids. My daughter would like to return to school for the last term and year 6 formal and all the end of year celebrations. Which are all risky. But then I look at my friend whose whole family has been badly and permanently affected by covid, which was caught from a school event. I can't take the risk. 

I've already started to think about Christmas and covid too. Last year was really big, about 50 people, and technically all outdoors - except not really, people in and out of the kitchen, bathrooms, the kids were upstairs playing computer, and even the outdoors stuff was everyone sitting at one big table. I've already begun to hint to extended family that I'm not comfortable with it tthis year. 

We have a lot of the same thoughts. We came through attending ds's graduation ceremony April 30 because case load in our area was super duper low, and the same where he was. We masked with KN95. Since then we have been outside a lot because our Michigan summer has been very pleasant. We mask if we go into a store, but no one else is. Now with all the tourist crowds, restaurants packed, and people just throwing all caution entirely to the winds, cases are climbing rapidly with the state up to almost 6500 per day. Our summers for 2020 and 2021 were better than that which makes me think autumn is going to be out of control once school resumes. Colleges begin next week with freshmen moving in this week. I just can't imagine the numbers by Christmas. Less than half of my county is vaccinated. I think we will be back to shunning humanity.

We decided yesterday to have immediate family only Christmas, and booked a centrally located ski condo for the holiday so everyone can do something they love that is pretty safe, skiing, and enjoy a beautiful landscape. Just us, our adult kids, grandsons, the grandmothers, and that's it. My brother, who prefers the huge Christmas celebrations of old with all the cousins and now 2nd cousins (great nieces and nephews) all together, is NOT happy with us. And Mark's brother is not thrilled because he wanted us to come to S.C. and have Christmas with he and his adult kids, grandkids, and his in-laws. Nope. To be honest with a third Christmas in a row done downsized significantly, I think this will be the new normal. The grandmother's have aged so much and their health deteriorated in this time frame. They don't have it in them to do the 25-40 person get together any longer. The window of opportunity to do one last big celebration like that has closed. Covid has stolen a lot from people. Mother in law is not stable at the moment, and Mark and his brother discussed what to do. His brother is very traditional, but also admits that having a public funeral is a bad idea. The church she is associated with has 220 people, and is a covid denying/political hoax group despite the fact that they have lost 9 people to covid, and have four families with a long covid member. She only attends in the summers when they have outside activities and an outdoor service. The polio issue concerns me a lot because these folks are also, by in large, anti-vax. Therefore, the consensus is that the funeral will be private only. My mom, mil's best friend, us, his brother and wife, grandkids and great grandkids. No pastor. 

Edited by Faith-manor
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https://www.doherty.edu.au/news-events/setting-it-straight/issue-118-persistence-of-sarscov2-long-covid-spectrum-immune-dysregulation

this is not a new study just a summary on the current state of knowledge 

Viral persistence/immune dysregulation in long covid 

The chronic production of ‘inflammatory mediator’ molecules described here indeed provides some explanation for the enduring clinical compromise of LC, while also being generally consistent with the idea (but by no means proving) that this results from a continuing (perhaps low level) confrontation between immune cells and virus (or viral protein) production ( #34 #51 #87 #94 ). The presence of expanded CD8+ memory populations showing evidence of ‘exhaustion’ might also suggest that these immune cells are simply unable to do the job of eliminating the virus-producing factory cells ( #34 ). At this stage, though, all that can be said definitively is that there is clear evidence of persistent immune activation in the type of LC that develops after a relative mild initial infection. What’s going on will be clarified as investigators ‘drill down’ to better define the roles of specific elements in this complex story. We will return to these themes.

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Caught the train to the city today - definitely noticed that coughing people were less likely to wear masks. It's mandatory on public transport but maybe a quarter in masks and mostly surgical. 

Read that Australia will soon be hitting ten million total cases and fourteen thousand total deaths since 2020. I think those numbers would have utterly shocked people in 2020 but now? Flu numbers, by the way, would be less than 500 deaths over the same period. 

Struggling with the Flo Mask, by the way - it really is difficult to wear with glasses. I am saving it for high risk situations and wearing usual N95s otherwise. 

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2 hours ago, bookbard said:

Caught the train to the city today - definitely noticed that coughing people were less likely to wear masks. It's mandatory on public transport but maybe a quarter in masks and mostly surgical. 

Read that Australia will soon be hitting ten million total cases and fourteen thousand total deaths since 2020. I think those numbers would have utterly shocked people in 2020 but now? Flu numbers, by the way, would be less than 500 deaths over the same period. 

Struggling with the Flo Mask, by the way - it really is difficult to wear with glasses. I am saving it for high risk situations and wearing usual N95s otherwise. 

That's good to know about the Flo mask - it was recommended to me as possibly being better for my skin? But I need to wear glasses at work. 

 

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Bookbard, I am so sorry to hear those numbers. I agree the numbers should be absolutely shocking and folks should be appalled! However, the apathy is amazing. The US has just over 93,000,000 cases as of last Friday, and over 1,000,000 dead. A million, and an estimated 23,000,000 with long covid! Staggering. But in my area, we are pretty much the last family we know of who actually cares. These people will keep on acting recklessly, and then when they lose a loved one to it or end up caring for someone with long covid, act dense about it as if the fact that this could happen was a total surprise/unknown. 😠😠😠

Add monkeypox, polio, and an upcoming flu season to the mix, bird flu here in Michigan and just waiting for that to mutate to people, and I am wondering about the virtues of off grid homesteading and vanlife camp lifestyle. Enjoy nature while shunning society.

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This is a little technical but provides more pieces to the puzzle. Not surprising to see that genetic polymorphisms/variants play a role in Covid. And not surprising that endothelial nitric oxide is beneficial.

I hope more nitric oxide treatments will be used eventually. Not just nasal spray but the newest treatments that some companies have developed but haven’t been used in trials yet. Four hospitals including Massachusetts General in Boston did use inhaled nitric oxide to treat pregnant women hospitalized with severe Covid and results were promising.


https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0009279722000394

The influence of renin angiotensin aldosterone system (RAAS), endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) and erythropoietin (EPO) on COVID-19 complications

Highlights

  • EPO is regulated not only by hypoxia or anemia but also by RAAS and its genetic polymorphisms.
  • Endothelial nitric oxide (NO) synthase (eNOS) activity in endothelium mediates EPO effects.
  • Increased NO-generation and bioavailability inhibits SARS-CoV-2 ACE2 binding.
  • eNOS genetic variants alter NO-generation and bioavailability and may modulate COVID-19 course.
  • EPO oversecretion appears protective against SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and young adults.
Edited by BeachGal
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Argh. When we joined scouts this year we explained we were covid cautious, told no problem at all, their policy was 100% outdoors.

Tonight they're meeting at a Pizza Hut for dinner. 

Not outdoors (I know the store, no outdoor dining), and really? Not healthy. Not why we joined. And if I don't let them go, they let others down (we give a lift to one girl, plus apparently this is all towards a 'planning an outing as a patrol then doing it' badge). 

Everytime something like this happens, it's another stress. Already stressed about the stuff we can't help like medical visits, prob an upcoming hospital visit. Adding stuff like this is stressful because somehow we're the bad guys who don't want kids to have fun. 

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41 minutes ago, bookbard said:

Argh. When we joined scouts this year we explained we were covid cautious, told no problem at all, their policy was 100% outdoors.

Tonight they're meeting at a Pizza Hut for dinner. 

Not outdoors (I know the store, no outdoor dining), and really? Not healthy. Not why we joined. And if I don't let them go, they let others down (we give a lift to one girl, plus apparently this is all towards a 'planning an outing as a patrol then doing it' badge). 

Everytime something like this happens, it's another stress. Already stressed about the stuff we can't help like medical visits, prob an upcoming hospital visit. Adding stuff like this is stressful because somehow we're the bad guys who don't want kids to have fun. 

This kind of think also makes me nuts.

That particular situation merits a conversation with the group's leadership, I think.  

I might send/say something like, "Sorry, we can't participate in this activity.  Little Susie and little Jimmy are disappointed; they were really looking forward to participating in Scouting adventures this year.  As you know from our (intake conversation or whatever it was), we are covid cautious and cannot participate in indoor unmasked activities.  I was given to expect that, as per your policy (quote policy), activities were to be 100% outdoors.  Has the policy changed?" Then suggest a solution: maybe pizza takeout picnic in the park.   

Scouts here is all about diversity, inclusion and accommodation.  Our group commissioner would take feedback like this very seriously.

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2 hours ago, wathe said:

This kind of think also makes me nuts.

That particular situation merits a conversation with the group's leadership, I think.  

I might send/say something like, "Sorry, we can't participate in this activity.  Little Susie and little Jimmy are disappointed; they were really looking forward to participating in Scouting adventures this year.  As you know from our (intake conversation or whatever it was), we are covid cautious and cannot participate in indoor unmasked activities.  I was given to expect that, as per your policy (quote policy), activities were to be 100% outdoors.  Has the policy changed?" Then suggest a solution: maybe pizza takeout picnic in the park.   

Scouts here is all about diversity, inclusion and accommodation.  Our group commissioner would take feedback like this very seriously.

I feel like literally no one here cares anymore. We have the worst stats in the world right now and still very little masking or caution anywhere. I would not be game to have the conversation you’re describing.

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9 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I feel like literally no one here cares anymore. We have the worst stats in the world right now and still very little masking or caution anywhere. I would not be game to have the conversation you’re describing.

It is so hard to be always swimming upstream.

I really do think that any youth organization that is breaking or bending its own policies, especially health and safety policies,  needs to be questioned by parents though.  Whether it's covid policy, 2-deep, leader/youth ratios, swimming without lifeguards present etc doesn't matter; if a group is breaking a policy, parents should be questioning. 

If 100% outdoors is more of a program aim rather than an actual policy, then it's more grey.  But I would still be questioning, I think.

I'm also very comfortable in the role of  that parent.  So there's that.

Edited by wathe
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So the leaders didn't even show up. Long story but anyway I won't be the only parent writing emails.

I read an interesting article about allergies reducing the risk of getting covid, up to 50% for food allergies, 35% for stuff like asthma and eczema. 

Got allergies? You could be at lower risk of catching COVID (theconversation.com)

Also read that some guy picked up Monkeypox, HIV and Covid all from the one encounter. First case of monkeypox virus, SARS-CoV-2 and HIV co-infection - Journal of Infection The man was also still infectious for monkeypox long after symptoms had subsided.

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Perrotet is pushing for the 5day iso period again. Channel 9 are pushing the story. Public health people don’t seem to support it at this stage but basically every time they seem to get overruled so I don’t feel hopeful. My kid went to an event last night with other kids his age and he’s the only one masked 😞 I feel bad for him standing out. He doesn’t mind too much, but I don’t think it would be heaps easy.

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6 minutes ago, bookbard said:

Really cute video on making a Corsi/Rosethal box!

 

Those are my favorite set of instructions yet 🥰. The use of legos to give an overview at the beginning was really well done and made the process so clear. 

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7 minutes ago, KSera said:

Those are my favorite set of instructions yet 🥰. The use of legos to give an overview at the beginning was really well done and made the process so clear. 

I saw on twitter an even simpler version - a square box fan and someone duct-taped a filter over the front (and apparently he'd run it for months and it hadn't caught fire lol). Cost him $39 (this was in the US - lots more here as things harder to get). 

I look back now and can't believe I didn't invest in an air purifier during the bushfires, nor was it suggested. It must have been so damaging breathing in all that smoke for 4 months straight. Now I have one for home and one for my workplace. 

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37 minutes ago, bookbard said:

I saw on twitter an even simpler version - a square box fan and someone duct-taped a filter over the front (and apparently he'd run it for months and it hadn't caught fire lol). Cost him $39 (this was in the US - lots more here as things harder to get). 

I look back now and can't believe I didn't invest in an air purifier during the bushfires, nor was it suggested. It must have been so damaging breathing in all that smoke for 4 months straight. Now I have one for home and one for my workplace. 

The box fan with the single filter behind it was the original version, but then they discovered that this version with four filters improved filtration efficiency a lot, plus was much less strain on the fan. Adding the shroud to the front improves that filtration efficiency even more. Interestingly, there was a study out this week that I need to reread more in depth because it seemed to indicate a much smaller impact from adding multiple filters than the previous one did. It still helped, but not by the large amount the previous study showed. I can’t figure out why the difference. Two box fans with a 4 inch filter on the back was more effective in that one than a single box fan with four filters. The single filter design is sure easier to fit in spaces

I wish I’d known to make these during wildfire season here as well.

 

eta: here’s the study link https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969722029813

Edited by KSera
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Local superspreading event has taken down 14 people so far, mostly people who had escaped covid previously. These are people who'd wear a mask to the shops religiously, but didn't seem to think about it for an indoor party. All older people (an 85th birthday party). My parents weren't there thank goodness but I know they're eating indoors on occasion with friends. There seems to be the view that if they're people you know, you're safer . . . that isn't how it works sadly. 

Edited to add: just realised I know at least 2 people now who have had to cease their businesses due to Long Covid. And it's not like I know trillions of people (and Covid only really hit here end of last year). If things keep up like this - will anyone be able to keep businesses going?

Edited by bookbard
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On 8/31/2022 at 7:40 PM, Ausmumof3 said:

Looks like perrotet got his way and iso is down to five days against the advice of the AMA. You do have to wonder what levers are being pulled because this is sure not a decision based on science.

Yep. You could see it was being put out in the media as a done deal even bfore the meeting, so something is going on. So dodgy. While I doubt most people are isolating for 7 days anyway,  it's bad as it forces people back to workplaces thereby increasing the spread.

The major local spread I mentioned earlier has gone even further, so many people affected by it (incl people who didn't attend, of course). And my poor little nephew who got covid from his dad a month or so ago has been really sick with something, ended up in hospital, they say probably an infection. I'm so worried it's MISC-C. 

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Just noticed they've revamped our state's covid counter, mapping each postcode in different colours. Used to be 0-50 cases, then upwards to 1000 cases, in black. Now 0-500 is the lowest, upwards to 20,000 in red. As you might imagine, the majority of postcodes don't even have 20,000 people in population, so few areas would ever reach red. Talk about minimising. 

Some new research about nasal vaccines:

 

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^Scary what we are doing with data reporting now. I am afraid it will carry over into other aspects of life. If you don't like something, just change the way it's reported.

And here is a scary graph from UIUC just 2 weeks into the semester. https://splunk-public.machinedata.illinois.edu/en-US/app/uofi_shield_public_APP/home

Compare this to the number of cases this time last year. It's not going to go well. And here is a discussion in the student newspaper about this year's response. Not my university, but I bet it's going to be similar here (though we will not be reporting on cases, so that nobody can complain). 

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33 minutes ago, Mom_to3 said:

And here is a scary graph from UIUC just 2 weeks into the semester

Couldn't see it your link - and did you forget to link 2nd article?

Good point about data reporting. Someone should write an article compiling all the examples (I remember one from a US state where they changed one of the axes in only one graph or something?)

Edited by bookbard
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4 hours ago, Mom_to3 said:

^Scary what we are doing with data reporting now. I am afraid it will carry over into other aspects of life. If you don't like something, just change the way it's reported.

And here is a scary graph from UIUC just 2 weeks into the semester. https://splunk-public.machinedata.illinois.edu/en-US/app/uofi_shield_public_APP/home

Compare this to the number of cases this time last year. It's not going to go well. And here is a discussion in the student newspaper about this year's response. Not my university, but I bet it's going to be similar here (though we will not be reporting on cases, so that nobody can complain). 

I was thinking about this as well.

we have just had a new fire danger rating introduced. It does seem more logical I think and hope, but we shall see.

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5 hours ago, bookbard said:

Couldn't see it your link - and did you forget to link 2nd article?

Good point about data reporting. Someone should write an article compiling all the examples (I remember one from a US state where they changed one of the axes in only one graph or something?)

Added the link. Sorry! https://dailyillini.com/life_and_culture-stories/2022/09/02/covid-19-policies-uiuc/

Edited by Mom_to3
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https://www.medscape.co.uk/viewarticle/long-covid-blood-test-receives-european-approval-2022a10022cg
 

Europe has approved a blood test for detecting long covid.

“The test was developed after clinical studies published in the journal Frontiers in Immunology suggested that patients with lingering symptoms after COVID-19 had a distinct immunologic profile. One study, published in January, found this was characterised by patterns of inflammatory marker expression. Specifically, those with PASC had persistent SARS-CoV-2 protein in CD14+, CD16+ monocytes for up to 15 months following acute infection, compared with healthy controls, the researchers concluded.

From these investigations, IncellDx researchers used machine learning and artificial intelligence to measure and analyse sets of cytokines and chemokines and produce objective disease scores capable of differentiating between patients with PASC and those who did not have the condition.

Dr Patterson said: "Long COVID presents a significant diagnostic and treatment challenge for patients. Many of the symptoms that are associated with long COVID, including fatigue, brain fog, shortness of breath, insomnia, and a wide range of cardiovascular issues, can easily be mistaken for other conditions like post-Lyme, ME-CFS, fibromyalgia, or even the common cold.

"Having an effective – and importantly an objective – tool to diagnose the condition is absolutely essential."”

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Europe has approved a blood test for detecting long covid.

 

Oh that's great news! Hope it becomes available over here. 

The numbers have dropped so much here that I feel like I underestimated how bad/dangerous it was during August. Like they're about half in our region. 

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4 hours ago, bookbard said:

Oh that's great news! Hope it becomes available over here. 

The numbers have dropped so much here that I feel like I underestimated how bad/dangerous it was during August. Like they're about half in our region. 

Same here.

I’m wondering if I may take a short break from masking soon in lower risk environments but prepared to mask again if things change. Hard to be sure that it’s the right thing though.

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35 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Same here.

I’m wondering if I may take a short break from masking soon in lower risk environments but prepared to mask again if things change. Hard to be sure that it’s the right thing though.

I risked it last weekend. I was just so tired of so much caution. Couldn't believe I was such an idiot later though (indoor party).

 Luckily, did not get Covid. 

 

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3 hours ago, Melissa Louise said:

Federation has been utterly useless on Covid. Pathetic. 

Ha, we've just been studying federation so that took me a few moments - I was wondering on your views of Edmund Barton (nb, never realised that federation was basically formed from racism).

2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I’m wondering if I may take a short break from masking soon in lower risk environments but prepared to mask again if things change. Hard to be sure that it’s the right thing though.

I think numbers will bounce back soon, and it's easier just to keep masking. Although I went to my parents house, indoors on Sunday, and didn't mask. Just them there though. 

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1 hour ago, bookbard said:

Ha, we've just been studying federation so that took me a few moments - I was wondering on your views of Edmund Barton (nb, never realised that federation was basically formed from racism).

I think numbers will bounce back soon, and it's easier just to keep masking. Although I went to my parents house, indoors on Sunday, and didn't mask. Just them there though. 

Yeah. Yep haven’t been masking indoors with family for a while, but when numbers were spiking we just did outdoor hellos for a bit. I’m more thinking work where I’m one on one not in a school setting. You’re probably right though. Will see what happens in the next two weeks.

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So just read that the life expectancy for China has now overtaken the US. Which is simply a huge outcome of a pandemic, of two different ways of managing a pandemic. 

Haven't heard if Australia has changed (in 2021 calculated as 81 for boys and 85 for girls). I wonder how climate change is calculated into it, though? 

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