Adjusted covid numbers

[happi duck]

The article below was in one of the long threads and I thought it deserved its own thread.

In light of mask mandates being lifted, too soon imo, I think it's important to consider the spread/risk within the unvaccinated population.

Hopefully there's no paywall *crosses fingers*

WaPo article

 

[happi duck]

I think people who haven't been vaccinated yet need to consider: would they have gone without masks or distance back in January, either for themselves or their kids?

Lifting the mask mandates has, I think, given a sense of false security.

I can't be comfortable saying "I'm vaccinated so I'm fine.". I care about community spread and breakthrough cases.  (My state is reporting 40+ breakthrough deaths.  It's a small percentage but if it's your loved one then it's 100% terrible.)

[J-rap]

I got an "An unexpected error has occurred" when I tried the link.

[whitestavern]

There are a lot of people (raising my hand) who are not vaccinated and who are still wearing masks and taking all possible precautions. Please don't assume not vaccinated=unmasked/careless. 

[KSera]

1 hour ago, happi duck said:

In light of mask mandates being lifted, too soon imo, I think it's important to consider the spread/risk within the unvaccinated population.

Hopefully there's no paywall *crosses fingers*

WaPo article

 

I think this needs to be made more clear to people as well. I think a lot of unvaccinated people feel like they are pretty safe now because numbers are lower in their area, but I don't think it's been well explained that their own personal risk is much higher than their local case rate would suggest, unless they are in an area with negligible vaccination. As that article shows, there are many places in the US where the risk to the unvaccinated is still as high as it was back in January.

I know The Washington Post previously had no paywall on any of their Covid coverage, so hopefully this still falls under that.

1 minute ago, J-rap said:

I got an "An unexpected error has occurred" when I tried the link.

Is it still not working? I just tried and it worked for me.

[Jaybee]

11 minutes ago, happi duck said:

I think people who haven't been vaccinated yet need to consider: would they have gone without masks or distance back in January, either for themselves or their kids?

Where I live, they were going without masks and distancing back in January. I don't understand it, other than that this is a primarily rural state that has not had high numbers overall. Still, that's a number in the thousands who have died of it even so.

Edited May 22, 2021 by Jaybee
typo

[Catwoman]

Just now, whitestavern said:

There are a lot of people (raising my hand) who are not vaccinated and who are still wearing masks and taking all possible precautions. Please don't assume not vaccinated=unmasked/careless. 

Agreed. 

[happi duck]

23 minutes ago, whitestavern said:

There are a lot of people (raising my hand) who are not vaccinated and who are still wearing masks and taking all possible precautions. Please don't assume not vaccinated=unmasked/careless. 

If there's an edit I can make please let me know because I am in no way assuming that not vaccinated=unmasked/careless.

My concern is that in lots of places lower numbers are being touted as life getting back to normal.  Some unvaccinated people might think it's safe to return to normal.

On Monday my grocery store had a huge sign practically blocking the door that face coverings are required.  Saturday that big sign is gone replaced with a small printed page in the window that says "masks are suggested for unvaccinated shoppers".  I'd hate for someone to think it's safer than it really is.

[Ditto]

I feel very strongly that the mask mandate has been lifted too soon.    It concerns me that the numbers are going to increase again and that we are going to have even more trouble getting this horrid beast under control.     My family will continue to double mask even though we are all fully vaccinated.  We will continue to take all the precautions that we have taken over the last 14 months or so.   

[Farrar]

It's so frustrating. The indoor mandate should have stayed. I just can't see any other way to view it. All my doctor friends agree. There are lots of epidemiologists who agree. I understand that if you are vaccinated, then your chances of circulating Covid are very low. Therefore, masking isn't really helping you or others that much if at all. I get that. And people who aren't going to get vaccinated have a large overlap with people who were already mask-refusers. I get that too.

But not everyone. There are lots of low key anti-mask people who respected the businesses and the law who will now unmask but aren't vaccinated. It's made people who need to or just want to continue masking more of a target again. It's made social pressure to unmask really high in many areas. We know people just aren't that trustworthy or honest about these things. I feel like slamming my head against the wall. It was too early. If we just could have waited another couple of months!

Fauci is saying that in order to avoid another wave, we need to get to 70% of the vaccinateable population vaxxed by July. Which... that's going to happen in some areas, but not all. I'm worried. And, honestly, ticked off. My kid got to go in studio with his teacher this week. My other kid gets to go tech for an outdoor show. Dh and I got to eat at a restaurant. My kids got to have friends over! All this is brand new for us this week. And so exciting. But it could all go away so fast if Covid circulates and numbers go way up and variants go crazy. We're in a race here. Resistance to the vaccine is holding us back from winning.

[Bootsie]

Comparing the percentage of the unvaccinated population who are contracting COVID daily today with January rates must be put into persepctive of where you are located.  For the US as a whole, the percentage of unvaccinated people contracting COVID today is about 1/4 of what it was for the entire population in January. 

Yes, some places, such as Colorado, it is as high now as it was in January, but that is because in January the percentage in Colorado was much lower (about half) of it wa in the rest of the country.  The adjusted rate in Colorado now is significantly lower than US January rate.

 

[KSera]

31 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

Comparing the percentage of the unvaccinated population who are contracting COVID daily today with January rates must be put into persepctive of where you are located.  For the US as a whole, the percentage of unvaccinated people contracting COVID today is about 1/4 of what it was for the entire population in January. 

Yes, some places, such as Colorado, it is as high now as it was in January, but that is because in January the percentage in Colorado was much lower (about half) of it wa in the rest of the country.  The adjusted rate in Colorado now is significantly lower than US January rate.

 

You can look at it by state to see how much discrepancy in risk between the two groups depending where you are. I would expect the places with spikes in rates among the unvaccinated will continue to shift and change as it has done all along, with those areas with higher unvaccinated rates presumably at a higher risk of having a surge in that area. 

[J-rap]

5 hours ago, KSera said:

 

Is it still not working? I just tried and it worked for me.

Hmmm...  It's still not working for me!  I still get the same message.  I also went directly to the Washington Post home page, figured out which article it was by the headline, but when I clicked on the article, it again gave me the same message.

I wonder if it has to do with my using Safari?

[KSera]

58 minutes ago, J-rap said:

Hmmm...  It's still not working for me!  I still get the same message.  I also went directly to the Washington Post home page, figured out which article it was by the headline, but when I clicked on the article, it again gave me the same message.

I wonder if it has to do with my using Safari?

That’s strange. It’s working for me in Safari on my phone. If you’d like me to look up a particular state, let me know and I will screenshot it and post it for you.

Here’s an excerpt from the beginning:

”The rosy national figures showing declining case numbers led the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to loosen mask recommendations last week and President Biden to advise people to take off their masks and smile.

But adjustments for vaccinations show the rate among susceptible, unvaccinated people is 69 percent higher than the standard figures being publicized. With that adjustment, the national death rate is roughly the same as it was two months ago and is barely inching down. The adjusted hospitalization rate is as high as it was three months ago. The case rate is still declining after the adjustment.”

Edited May 23, 2021 by KSera

[Bootsie]

On the Washington Post site, is the "daily reported hospitalizations per 100k" the total people hospitlalized with COVID (rather than new hospitalizations)?  And then the "daily reported cases per 100k" is new cases (rather than total active cases)?  

[Roadrunner]

I am personally very pleased that my vaccinated kid will get to attend an overnight camp without a mask. 
 

I do think stores and large public events should still be masked. And I don’t think I will go anywhere near any homeschool event ever again. Here if you are against vaccines, you most likely homeschool. I am not taking my chances. 
 

Overall I don’t think people dead set against vaccines will ever change their minds. Maybe this virus will just keep circulating in that community.

I am a little bit worried about next winter. 

[Kanin]

In the comments of a big newspaper here in Maine, everyone is asking, "But how many people that got hospitalized/died were VACCINATED?" I think it's a valid question. Everyone wants to know if the vaccines are working. I think it would go a long way to make it very clear somehow that X% of the new cases were from unvaccinated people, and X% were from vaccinated people. I'm sure the difference would be very stark. It seems like people don't know just how effective the vaccines are. 

[Laura Corin]

1 hour ago, Kanin said:

In the comments of a big newspaper here in Maine, everyone is asking, "But how many people that got hospitalized/died were VACCINATED?" I think it's a valid question. Everyone wants to know if the vaccines are working. I think it would go a long way to make it very clear somehow that X% of the new cases were from unvaccinated people, and X% were from vaccinated people. I'm sure the difference would be very stark. It seems like people don't know just how effective the vaccines are. 

Tim Spector addressed this in a question session this week. In a large international study of 52,000 people, 500 fully-vaccinated people were hospitalised and 100 died. Eta 90 percent of the deaths were people with weakened immune systems due to frailty or other issues. It's at minute 4.45 here

https://youtu.be/eZlNqMR0u9M

 

Edited May 23, 2021 by Laura Corin

[whitestavern]

These are results from the beginning of May. https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/cdc-limits-review-of-vaccinated-but-infected-draws-concern/ar-BB1gx1au?ocid=uxbndlbing Haven't seen updated figures. 

 

At the start of May, the CDC shifted from monitoring all reported breakthroughs to only those that result in hospitalization or death, Tom Clark, head of the vaccine evaluation unit for the CDC’s vaccine task force, said in an interview. The goal of the new strategy, according to the agency: maximize the quality of data collected on cases.

Total number of breakthrough infections reported to CDC9,245

Females	5,827 (63%)
People aged 60 and older	4,245 (45%)
Asymptomatic infections	2,525 (27%)
Hospitalizations	835 (9%)
Deaths	132 (1%)

 

The CDC says its numbers are probably an undercount, since their surveillance system is passive and relies on voluntary reporting from state health departments that may not be complete.

 

Edited May 23, 2021 by whitestavern

[J-rap]

9 hours ago, KSera said:

That’s strange. It’s working for me in Safari on my phone. If you’d like me to look up a particular state, let me know and I will screenshot it and post it for you.

Here’s an excerpt from the beginning:

”The rosy national figures showing declining case numbers led the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to loosen mask recommendations last week and President Biden to advise people to take off their masks and smile.

But adjustments for vaccinations show the rate among susceptible, unvaccinated people is 69 percent higher than the standard figures being publicized. With that adjustment, the national death rate is roughly the same as it was two months ago and is barely inching down. The adjusted hospitalization rate is as high as it was three months ago. The case rate is still declining after the adjustment.”

Thank you --   I ended up trying it on my phone and was able to access it from there!   Perhaps I need to update my laptop's Adobe Flash Player or something -- the article has some fancy graphics in it.

[Bootsie]

5 hours ago, Laura Corin said:

Tim Spector addressed this in a question session this week. In a large international study of 52,000 people, 500 fully-vaccinated people were hospitalised and 100 died. Eta 90 percent of the deaths were people with weakened immune systems due to frailty or other issues. It's at minute 4.45 here

https://youtu.be/eZlNqMR0u9M

 

Was the 52,000 simply a sample of fully-vaccinated individuals?  If of 52,000 fully vaccinated individuals 500 contracted COVID and were hospitalized, that would imply a rate of 1% of people who are fully vaccinated get COVID and have to be hospitalized.  That seems high.  Or, is the 52,000 sample a sample of people who have been vaccinated AND have been diagnosed with COVID.  Even among that group 1% hospitlalization seems high.

[KSera]

7 hours ago, Kanin said:

In the comments of a big newspaper here in Maine, everyone is asking, "But how many people that got hospitalized/died were VACCINATED?" I think it's a valid question. Everyone wants to know if the vaccines are working. I think it would go a long way to make it very clear somehow that X% of the new cases were from unvaccinated people, and X% were from vaccinated people. I'm sure the difference would be very stark. It seems like people don't know just how effective the vaccines are. 

I really don't know why we're not seeing more of that. I keep seeing that same thing over and over as well. In reply, so far I'm mostly just seeing responses from nurses and physicians working on Covid wards, saying that either all, or almost all of their patients are unvaccinated. I think publicizing the numbers would be super helpful. Is there any reason that couldn't be done.

1 hour ago, Bootsie said:

Was the 52,000 simply a sample of fully-vaccinated individuals?  If of 52,000 fully vaccinated individuals 500 contracted COVID and were hospitalized, that would imply a rate of 1% of people who are fully vaccinated get COVID and have to be hospitalized.  That seems high.  Or, is the 52,000 sample a sample of people who have been vaccinated AND have been diagnosed with COVID.  Even among that group 1% hospitlalization seems high.

 

**Eta: What I wrote below is what the video says, but doesn't match what other sources say the study was about. What I found subsequently is this: "A total of 526 patients out of 52,000 (1%) had been vaccinated more than three weeks before they developed Covid symptoms and were hospitalised. Of those, 113 died. Most of them (97) were in the two highest risk categories, so frail, elderly or otherwise highly vulnerable."**

Previously written: It was of 52,000 fully vaccinated individuals, 1% of them had to be hospitalized. He said most of those infected were people who were infected shortly after the second jab, without waiting for full immunity (I'd like to see the full breakdown on that--most studies count "fully vaccinated" as being two weeks past the second shot, but it doesn't sound like this one did). From the number who died, it comes out that 0.2% of fully vaccinated people in the study died of Covid, almost all of whom were in the highest risk categories. Which does further show that we can't count on the vaccine alone for the most vulnerable of people, even though it still results in the illness being mild for most of them who contract it anyway.

Edited May 23, 2021 by KSera

[Catwoman]

2 minutes ago, KSera said:

I really don't know why we're not seeing more of that. I keep seeing that same thing over and over as well. In reply, so far I'm mostly just seeing responses from nurses and physicians working on Covid wards, saying that either all, or almost all of their patients are unvaccinated. I think publicizing the numbers would be super helpful. Is there any reason that couldn't be done.

It was of 52,000 fully vaccinated individuals, 1% of them had to be hospitalized. He said most of those infected were people who were infected shortly after the second jab, without waiting for full immunity (I'd like to see the full breakdown on that--most studies count "fully vaccinated" as being two weeks past the second shot, but it doesn't sound like this one did). From the number who died, it comes out that 0.2% of fully vaccinated people in the study died of Covid, almost all of whom were in the highest risk categories. Which does further show that we can't count on the vaccine alone for the most vulnerable of people, even though it still results in the illness being mild for most of them who contract it anyway.

Thanks for explaining this. I haven’t had a chance to watch the video that Laura linked, so I appreciate the info.

Does anyone have any current statistics on how many unvaccinated people are hospitalized from Covid? 

[KSera]

4 minutes ago, Catwoman said:

Thanks for explaining this. I haven’t had a chance to watch the video that Laura linked, so I appreciate the info.

You're welcome. I appreciated that Laura said what minute marker to go to, because I almost never watch YouTube videos posted as info sources. This one was worth it for the explanation though.

[Bootsie]

22 minutes ago, KSera said:

I really don't know why we're not seeing more of that. I keep seeing that same thing over and over as well. In reply, so far I'm mostly just seeing responses from nurses and physicians working on Covid wards, saying that either all, or almost all of their patients are unvaccinated. I think publicizing the numbers would be super helpful. Is there any reason that couldn't be done.

It was of 52,000 fully vaccinated individuals, 1% of them had to be hospitalized. He said most of those infected were people who were infected shortly after the second jab, without waiting for full immunity (I'd like to see the full breakdown on that--most studies count "fully vaccinated" as being two weeks past the second shot, but it doesn't sound like this one did). From the number who died, it comes out that 0.2% of fully vaccinated people in the study died of Covid, almost all of whom were in the highest risk categories. Which does further show that we can't count on the vaccine alone for the most vulnerable of people, even though it still results in the illness being mild for most of them who contract it anyway.

I can't watch the video right now, but that seems like an incredibly high amount of vaccinated people getting COVID and being hospitalized.  Rates of hospitalization for those diagnosed with COVID among the general population that I have seen have been under 5%.  If those vaccinated are being hospitalized at the high end of the range of the general population you would have to have 10,000 people infected in the sample to have 500 hospitalized.  To have 10,000 people infect out of 52,000 people who are fully vaccinated would mean a 20% infection rate (over whatever time period the study is for--which could not be more than 6 months given the time that vaccines have been available.)  That would be an infection rate higher than the general population.  Something doesn't seem right.  

[Bootsie]

34 minutes ago, KSera said:

I really don't know why we're not seeing more of that. I keep seeing that same thing over and over as well. In reply, so far I'm mostly just seeing responses from nurses and physicians working on Covid wards, saying that either all, or almost all of their patients are unvaccinated. I think publicizing the numbers would be super helpful. Is there any reason that couldn't be done.

It was of 52,000 fully vaccinated individuals, 1% of them had to be hospitalized. He said most of those infected were people who were infected shortly after the second jab, without waiting for full immunity (I'd like to see the full breakdown on that--most studies count "fully vaccinated" as being two weeks past the second shot, but it doesn't sound like this one did). From the number who died, it comes out that 0.2% of fully vaccinated people in the study died of Covid, almost all of whom were in the highest risk categories. Which does further show that we can't count on the vaccine alone for the most vulnerable of people, even though it still results in the illness being mild for most of them who contract it anyway.

If we look at the US, there have been approximately 604,000 deaths out of a population of about 332,728,000.  That is 0.18% of the total US population has died from COVID in over a year.  If 0.2% of fully vaccinated people are dying from COVID (in less than 1 years time) that would imply a higher rate of dying from COVID from fully vaccinated people than from the general population.  

[mathnerd]

25 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

If we look at the US, there have been approximately 604,000 deaths out of a population of about 332,728,000.  That is 0.18% of the total US population has died from COVID in over a year.  If 0.2% of fully vaccinated people are dying from COVID (in less than 1 years time) that would imply a higher rate of dying from COVID from fully vaccinated people than from the general population.  

I agree. To me, these numbers don't make any sense. But, the most vulnerable and the elderly are also those that got vaccinated first in the US. If we take that fact into account, maybe we should expect the covid deaths among vaccinated people to fall as more and more younger and healthier people are vaccinated.

[KSera]

32 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

If we look at the US, there have been approximately 604,000 deaths out of a population of about 332,728,000.  That is 0.18% of the total US population has died from COVID in over a year.  If 0.2% of fully vaccinated people are dying from COVID (in less than 1 years time) that would imply a higher rate of dying from COVID from fully vaccinated people than from the general population.  

You're right that doesn't make sense. I expected the video to say it was out of 52,000 hospitalized people with Covid, but that's not what he said, but now I have found references to the study in a bunch of other sources, and they all say what makes more sense:

"A total of 526 patients out of 52,000 (1%) had been vaccinated more than three weeks before they developed Covid symptoms and were hospitalised. Of those, 113 died. Most of them (97) were in the two highest risk categories, so frail, elderly or otherwise highly vulnerable."

 

Quote

Also: "In their paper for Sage, the researchers said they saw “an abundance of patients admitted to hospital within seven days of vaccination”. Most had been infected around the time of their vaccination. They said it was possible that elderly and vulnerable people who had been shielding were infected when they went to get their shot or soon afterwards because they changed their behaviour, wrongly thinking they were immune."

The researchers said the results had to be looked at in the context of the high levels of infection in the first months of the year and were not representative of what might be happening now.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/30/figures-on-covid-deaths-post-jab-show-vaccines-success-scientists-say

 

I'm going to read this and get a good reference link.

Edited May 23, 2021 by KSera

[KSera]

So, the short of it in this particular report looks to be that only 1% of the 52,000 people admitted to the hosptial for Covid were vaccinated, and the majority of those were admitted to the hospital within 7 days of their second shot. That is actually a tremendously good result! Makes me even more confident to be out and about doing things now that I'm vaccinated.

 

Link to report: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/982499/S1208_CO-CIN_report_on_impact_of_vaccination_Apr_21.pdf

Edited May 23, 2021 by KSera

[Bootsie]

3 hours ago, KSera said:

So, the short of it in this particular report looks to be that only 1% of the 52,000 people admitted to the hosptial for Covid were vaccinated, and the majority of those were admitted to the hospital within 7 days of their second shot. That is actually a tremendously good result! Makes me even more confident to be out and about doing things now that I'm vaccinated.

 

Link to report: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/982499/S1208_CO-CIN_report_on_impact_of_vaccination_Apr_21.pdf

Those are not the numbers I am seeing in the report

"More than 52,000 people were admitted to hospital with Covid in England, Scotland and Wales between 8 December and 10 March. Of those, 3,842 had been vaccinated"

That is 7.4% of those hospitalized had been vaccinated.  

and "A total of 526 patients out of 52,000 (1%) had been vaccinated more than three weeks before they developed Covid symptoms and were hospitalised."

To really conclude anything about effectiveness, one would have to know what percent of the population had been vaccianted for more than three weeks at the same time these people were hospitalized.  

 

[TCB]

13 hours ago, Bootsie said:

Those are not the numbers I am seeing in the report

"More than 52,000 people were admitted to hospital with Covid in England, Scotland and Wales between 8 December and 10 March. Of those, 3,842 had been vaccinated"

That is 7.4% of those hospitalized had been vaccinated.  

and "A total of 526 patients out of 52,000 (1%) had been vaccinated more than three weeks before they developed Covid symptoms and were hospitalised."

To really conclude anything about effectiveness, one would have to know what percent of the population had been vaccianted for more than three weeks at the same time these people were hospitalized.  

 

Also important is knowing if they are talking about people who had 1 or 2 doses of the vaccine. During that time period they were vaccinating many people with the first dose only. My parents, both in their 80s, waited 12 weeks before they got their second dose.

 

ETA - I just saw that they mentioned within 7 days of their 2nd shot. I’m amazed there were many that had had 2 doses due to the delayed schedule. My dad, 84, was in the first group who got vaccinated but it has not been that long since he was able to be fully vaccinated.

Edited May 24, 2021 by TCB

[Laura Corin]

3 hours ago, TCB said:

Also important is knowing if they are talking about people who had 1 or 2 doses of the vaccine. During that time period they were vaccinating many people with the first dose only. My parents, both in their 80s, waited 12 weeks before they got their second dose.

 

ETA - I just saw that they mentioned within 7 days of their 2nd shot. I’m amazed there were many that had had 2 doses due to the delayed schedule. My dad, 84, was in the first group who got vaccinated but it has not been that long since he was able to be fully vaccinated.

Residents of care homes were vaccinated fast in December/January with both jabs, before the decision was made to spread the doses. This happened to my mum. I  think that some NHS and care staff were inoculated at the same time.