College Enrollment Slide Continues

[MarkT]

https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2017/12/20/national-enrollments-decline-sixth-straight-year-slower-rate

[JanetC]

What seems to be missing from the article is the size of the high school graduating classes. It's hard to get more college students if there are fewer high school graduates in a given year.

[creekland]

The title seems a little misleading.  'Tis true, I suppose, but not based upon what most folks think of when they think "college enrollment."

 

"Among undergraduates, the center found an enrollment decrease of 2.3 percent for associate-degree seekers, and a 10.7 percent drop for students pursuing certificates or other nondegree credentials. But enrollments were up 1.5 percent among four-year-degree seekers.

Part-time-student enrollments fell by 3.3 percent, according to the report, while the number of full-time students increased by 0.3 percent.

The center also found that enrollments were down for first-time college students. This group saw a 2.3 percent decline, of 63,000 students, compared to the previous fall. Most of the decrease was due to adult students, with the number of first-time students over the age of 24 dropping by more than 13 percent. But 23,000 fewer traditional-age students enrolled in college this fall, a drop of 1 percent. (Adult student enrollments over all have declined by 1.5 million since 2010, the center found.)"

Edited December 25, 2017 by creekland

[DawnM]

Interesting, I thought the trend for community college first was going up due to cost savings and the economy, etc....

 

 

[Sneezyone]

Interesting, I thought the trend for community college first was going up due to cost savings and the economy, etc....

I wonder if the value of an associates degree/certificate has declined such that most people are now bachelor’s or bust. Upper-middle class families that I know are paying through graduate degrees as a matter of course now.

Edited December 26, 2017 by Sneezyone

[creekland]

Interesting, I thought the trend for community college first was going up due to cost savings and the economy, etc....

 

I have only seen that on here (The Hive).  I haven't seen it IRL, but I assumed that it was regional for us and partially due to our cc not really being up to the standards others say they get with theirs.

 

A couple of our seniors will be starting at our cc with intents to transfer, but most going to them are looking at two year (sometimes less) courses for certifications.  The vast majority of college bound students are going directly to four year schools, often state schools.

[MarkT]

Interesting, I thought the trend for community college first was going up due to cost savings and the economy, etc....

It seems like this is very location dependent.

Our local good quality CC will save you a bunch versus going to the state U directly.

[creekland]

It seems like this is very location dependent.

 

I think it is.

[DawnM]

I wonder if the value of an associates degree/certificate has declined such that most people are now bachelor’s or bust. Upper-middle class families that I know are paying through graduate degrees as a matter of course now.

 

True, but you can still start out at CC and transfer, which is what my oldest has done.  My middle son may do it, although he has gotten in to two schools so far (4 year), and we are waiting on another decision.

[DawnM]

I have only seen that on here (The Hive).  I haven't seen it IRL, but I assumed that it was regional for us and partially due to our cc not really being up to the standards others say they get with theirs.

 

A couple of our seniors will be starting at our cc with intents to transfer, but most going to them are looking at two year (sometimes less) courses for certifications.  The vast majority of college bound students are going directly to four year schools, often state schools.

 

Thankfully we have a good/decent CC here and MANY start out there.  In fact, our high school even commented on it being a good option.  And our high school is ranked around 250 according to  US News and World Report.

[DawnM]

- not a substantial cost savings compared to a four year here, and housing savings from living at home is eaten by commuting costs

- students who were able to DE/AP have little left to take before needing to transfer

- 2 year degree offerings are limited, if the local CC isn't offering what you want, you have to go elsewhere

 

CC here is basically for students who arent accelerated academically in high school and want a 4 yr, or want an associates for nursing, dental assisstant or some other allied health program. Electrical, mechanical, etc that would get someone a technician's job in a hospital or school etc have been dropped.

 

Interesting.  

 

Our local CC is $2,500 for tuition and fees per year.  Commuting might add $700/year for gas.

 

Our cheapest 4 year college, with room and board, tuition and fees is $11,000.  Now, I think $11K is dirt cheap for a college including room and board,  but it isn't $3,200.

[G5052]

Yes, enrollment is flat at the community college where I work. They've cut some programs and have gotten more strict about having enough students for a class to go, but they're doing fine. My classes are generally full, but everything I teach transfers to the 4-year that most of our transfer students go to.

 

Community college is very cost effective for us. My kids love the small classes and friendly atmosphere, and my oldest says that the community college professors have generally been better than those at the 4-year in terms of content, organization, and interest in the students.

 

Everything is expensive here. The community college is $4,000 and the 4-year is $12,000 for commuter students.

[Matryoshka]

CC here is 3294 per semester for tuition and fees.

regional 4 yr, per semester is 3935 for tuition and fees

 

Wow, that's not much different.

 

Just paid two dd's bills, one's in CC/DE, the other is in a 4-year.  

 

DE was just under $1500 in tuition and fees, that's for 4 courses and includes $250 in lab fees that are not for every course.  I think we get a 50% discount for DE, and so extrapolating if one took 5 courses at full price, it would be around $3500 or a bit less?

 

But a semester at one of the bigger state U's is about double that.  We do have some lower-tier state U's that are closer to $5000/semester tuition and fees?  But still...

Edited December 27, 2017 by Matryoshka

[KarenNC]

Per semester:

 

local CC  $76/credit hour (so $912 for 12 hours), max $1216 per semester for 16 or more hours, and we paid about $200 in fees for 13 hours this semester

 

local state 4 year    $3486.50 tuition and fees for 12 hours or more

 

This is for a regular student at the cc, not dual enrollment. We get free tuition for dual enrollment, but may have to pay fees depending on the particular community college.

[Crimson Wife]

It seems like this is very location dependent.

Our local good quality CC will save you a bunch versus going to the state U directly.

 

Yes, this. Tuition is $46/credit at the CC so if a student takes a full 15 credits per semester that is an annual cost of $1,380. Our local branch of Cal State charges $6,834 per year and UC is $14,068 per year.

 

Now the quality of the CC is nowhere near that of UC Berkeley, but for 1/10 of the price, that's a tradeoff a lot of families can live with.

[Crimson Wife]

And I believe the state may start offering the first year of CC free to state residents so long as they are enrolled FT. Not sure of the details since my oldest wouldn't qualify and my 2nd is not yet ready to be thinking about starting DE.

[Arcadia]

The report has breakdowns by states (Table 8: Estimated Enrollment by State of Institution (Title IV, Degree-Granting Institutions)) and college majors (Table 9: Estimated Undergraduate Enrollment at Four-Year Institutions by Classification of Instructional Program Family & Table 10: Estimated Undergraduate Enrollment at Two-Year Institutions by Classification of Instructional Program Family).

https://nscresearchcenter.org/current-term-enrollment-estimates-fall-2017/

[elegantlion]

I wonder how much of that is driven by universities creating more online degree programs? When I started at my university in fall 2013, their goal was to have all the general studies available online and to add to their degree offerings. They've pretty much done that in my time there. They've also created so branch campuses in a nearby city where there are community colleges. Our tuition is low, not quite as low as the CC there, but close. Our enrollment has increased for the last two years. 

 

I do think the online offerings are attractive to working adults rather than traditional night courses at a CC. 

[JennyD]

As someone said upthread, these numbers are meaningless absent the broader demographic context. The largest age cohort in America is just past college age.  

 

Note that these numbers are from 2015:

https://census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2016/06/americas-age-profile-told-through-population-pyramids.html

[luuknam]

Just to throw out another example of how things are location-dependent:

 

Main point -

Its all location dependent.

 

CC here is 3294 per semester for tuition and fees.

regional 4 yr, per semester is 3935 for tuition and fees

both are similar commuting distance for me....the difference in offerings and level of offerings is huge

 

 

Here, Erie County CC is almost as expensive as the University of Buffalo or Buff State. But, Niagara County CC, Genesee County CC, and w/e is to the south of us CC are all cheaper than Erie County CC. So, while commuting distance to Erie County CC is about the same as to the local 4-years, the cost savings is fairly trivial to do CC in Erie... but I did the math, and it's worth it in gas money to drive 45 minutes (one way) to one of the neighboring counties' CCs - it ends up being substantially cheaper than using the in-county CC. Now, the catch is that you're wasting 1.5 hours a day driving, vs only 45 min or so a day driving (because city driving always takes annoyingly long compared to highway driving, and I'm sure parking at Erie CC is likely to be a pain compared to rural CC). So, if you were to work that 45 min difference each day at $10/hour or so, there'd be no point. But, if you're not going to be working anyway, and you don't mind spending more time in the car listening to the radio or an audiobook or w/e... going out-of-county for CC is the cheapest option here. (though it should maybe be added that I'm not including the cost of insuring the car, since, as a one car family, we are insuring that car anyway, and we wouldn't be buying/selling any vehicles based on where one might attend CC... so it's just wear & gas mileage). IIRC, when we lived in North Texas, the rural CC was MUCH cheaper than the (sub)urban CC as well, even after accounting for whether you were a county resident or not. 

 

Of course, that ignores that new high school grads in NY can now qualify for a big tuition discount if they go to school full time, at which point going to the 4-year might make the most sense financially. 

[DawnM]

Small point - living at home isn't free. Board is about 30% less than meal plan if packing lunch and dinner not eating on campus or buying coffees;  room is the savings as living at home is just the utilities for living and laundry.

 

Main point -

Its all location dependent.

 

 

Room and board is roughly $10,000 added at most schools.  If he moved there, it MIGHT save us $2000 in food and $1000 in gas.  

 

Our mortgage is the same whether he is here or not.  

 

So, $3,000 vs. $10,000 is a big difference.

[wapiti]

It depends on the school, but most are closer to 15k for room and board together (e.g. our state flagship is 14k for R&B)

[DawnM]

It depends on the school, but most are closer to 15k for room and board together (e.g. our state flagship is 14k for R&B)

 

Which even furthers my point that living at home is MUCH cheaper.  

 

My oldest son's school is around $15,000 for R/B, but it is private.   Scholarships cover some of that, thankfully.

[DawnM]

You are comparing living at home against living on campus.

 

the fair comparison is living at home against living off campus. 

 

Home: Rent free   Utilities?  about $25/mo here , 32 weeks is $800 Gas? $50/week, 32 weeks is  $1600  Parking fee? 

Off Campus:  Rent 200/mon inc utils and internet , 12 months is $ 2400  Gas? zero plus whatever it costs to ride share home & back (thats $25 for my kid, each way, 4x/yr=100). 

 

so Home 3200 + on campus parking fee + vehicle maintenance vs Off Campus $2500  ymmv with how much you are willing to pay for rent off campus

 

Board: same for either option.  I don't pay for pizza or beer, that comes from the part time job; I don't expect standard of living to be different than home. 

 

Again, it varies by area.

 

I have not found any options in the $200/mo range off campus anywhere near here.  Even my friend whose daughter shares a bedroom, pays $365/mo. 

 

So, yes, this varies by area.  

[luuknam]

I have not found any options in the $200/mo range off campus anywhere near here.  Even my friend whose daughter shares a bedroom, pays $365/mo. 

 

So, yes, this varies by area.  

 

 

When DW and I attended UTD, our electric bill by itself was over $200/month in summer.  :leaving:

 

ETA: summer is like 6 months out of the year there. Oh, and it still managed to get 86F inside some days, despite the insane A/C-related electric bill.

 

ETA2: our utilities (gas, water, electric, internet) were probably about $400/month for the two of us combined, so, that'd bring you to $200/month without even paying for housing. Also, that was over a decade ago. 

 

ETA3: and laundry... laundromats are crazy expensive. 

Edited December 30, 2017 by luuknam

[Tsuga]

I wonder if the value of an associates degree/certificate has declined such that most people are now bachelor’s or bust. Upper-middle class families that I know are paying through graduate degrees as a matter of course now.

 

The value of an associate's degree has not declined significantly for working class people. On the contrary, if you are looking to get into management in the service industry, it provides you with a real advantage. Same in the military and government positions, even low-level positions.

 

 

I wonder how much of that is driven by universities creating more online degree programs? When I started at my university in fall 2013, their goal was to have all the general studies available online and to add to their degree offerings. They've pretty much done that in my time there. They've also created so branch campuses in a nearby city where there are community colleges. Our tuition is low, not quite as low as the CC there, but close. Our enrollment has increased for the last two years. 

 

I do think the online offerings are attractive to working adults rather than traditional night courses at a CC.

 

Around here, colleges offer more options for online study than universities.

 

I don't know the nationwide trend but I would guess that a lot of the decline in CC's has to do with, that was the affordable, nearby option during the recession. So that's going to trend downward more inversely with the economy. People who go to 4 years aren't generally there due to unemployment or industry shifts. They are there to jump start a career.

[JanetC]

The big driver is the economy - strong economy is good for enrolling traditional age students as parents can afford to send their kids to college. (The other factor for traditional students is the size of the graduating class.)

 

A weaker economy pulls in nontraditional students who are looking to gain an edge in a tougher job market. When jobs are plentiful, potential older students tend to stay in the workforce.