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Can somebody explain the Gustav panic?


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I know it's a hurricane. I know it could be headed for New Orleans. Is it that New Orleans is just not ready for any type of hurricane to hit it?

 

I understand that the people that lived through Katrina see things differently than I do (although I have lived through a few hurricanes and bad tropical storms). My heart goes out to them. They need to do what it takes in order to feel safe.

 

I'm just trying to figure this out. Please, please don't take this as criticism. If (if!) I'm criticizing anybody, it's the media. I have just seen too many hurricanes completely change paths, and this far out, it's impossible to tell where it will land.

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Well, I have to say I understand. I honestly, don't think N.O is ready for this type / size of hit. No way. I don't care if they say they are. I just. don't.say.it. UGH! I feel badly for the people in the affected areas. I couldn't imagine the dread and panic that would be welling up inside of me. I have seen the damage from Katrina. They are afraid, no terrified, that it will happen again. :(

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Gustavo will be passing by us tomorrow and today we had pretty high winds in anticipation of him. During hurricane season (June to December here) we have Dr. Master's site as our homepage. (pretty much :))

 

Read his blog - it might give you better insight.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1049&tstamp=200808

 

Once you follow the link, read previous blogs also to gain a better understanding.

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I agree with you about the media. They do try to get everyone excited about bad weather. But I also understand people that are very concerned if not panicy about the prospects of having another big hurricane knocking at their door. I remember our own little evacuation for Rita, that turned out to be for not. We ended up spending ten days out in west Texas waiting for all the craziness to settle down. And Houston didn't get much of anything from Rita. But we must be careful that we don't get to complaisant (sp?) and end up in a heap of trouble.

 

We will actually be leaving for Colorado on Monday morning for our vacation. I guess we picked a good time to be out of town.

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from Katrina, it is nerve-wrecking. My mom lost her mother in law in a nursing home during Katrina (she got dehydrated), then her husband died 6 months later. After he died, and 9 months after they fixed part of their home, another storm blew the same roof off, and it remains that way to this day. The first time FEMA helped and the second time a program through La Road to Home offered help, but they keep delaying the closing. My mom has had pneumonia 8 times in the last 2 years, and the Dr. told her she needs to get out of that moldy place. She is stubborn though, so please pray for her if you will.

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Well, I think it has a lot to do with the loss of lives that Katrina in particular claimed because they did not evacuate. The loss of property was overwhelming. Some down there are just now getting back on their feet if at all. Insurance companies didn't pay. It is utterly devastating. And even for me, three hours north, I couldn't get bread and gas was hard to come by in the days following Katrina. Everyone in the projected path has to be on alarm right now since we know what happens when you don't take caution. They just do not know and I'm sure that's a huge part of the fear. My father-in-law is retired from the phone company and has gone down to work through the aftermath of two major hurricanes. It has really taken a toll on him. The devastation is just unbearable, even when you aren't the one that has lost everything.

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We visited the levee breaches. They have rebuilt the spots that broke, exactly as they were before. In smaller spots, they just patched the wall. If the levees failed last time, and they haven't changed the way they were built, then you can hardly expect them to hold up another time around. The governor said that the current system can handle a Cat 2. I believe Gustav is possibly going to be a Cat 4? If you saw the area, you would understand their fear. New Orleans isn't even close to being rebuilt. Any storm will just set them further back.

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I remember after Hugo (which at the time was the biggest storm to hit the US) there was a lot of tension in Charleston during the next couple of storms to hit that area.

After living through something like Katrina I can understand the panic. The collective memory is still very much alive.

 

Before Katrina and the ones before that Camille was the biggest storm. That was in '69. A lot of time for the collective memory to fade.

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Read his blog - it might give you better insight.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Jef...&tstamp=200808

 

He seems to believe it's going to stall at the LA coast and track west to TX. You see that little dip on maps after you get to the TX coast from Louisiana's line? My mom lives up in that.

 

I wish we could know if this guy is right NOW. Someone posting comments on the blog said we should know better by 4pm tomorrow....I guess she'll be plenty safe coming up Sunday morning if need be.

 

I don't like this. It's too much stress after Katrina and Rita.

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The last I heard the new levee system will not be complete until 2010. If they are still depending on the old levee system, it is unlikely to hold up even as well as last time. And this time around, everyone has a very good idea of exactly what can happen.

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Why the panic?

 

NOLA is *below sea level*. It is sort of built in a bowl. It requires levees to keep the sea out.

 

26,000 people were sheltered at the SuperDome, alone. I think the last time I looked at the numbers over 1,800 people were confirmed dead and 700-some were missing.

 

It could *easily* happen again.

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We moved south after Hurricane Rita. It devastated the town we currently live in. We are 40 miles inland and not one area of town was unaffected. I moved down here 8 months after the Hurricane and many businesses were still not fully operational.

 

I feel like we are doing the hokey-pokey with Gustav. Part of the issue in our area is limited access out. We are not close to a major interstate north and that can make traffic bottleneck easily.

 

Our concern is high winds, rains, flooding and tornadoes. We literally have over 300 trees in our yard alone and they are tall, 60ft and up. It's beautiful, but not the trees you want falling near your house.

 

Our area (SW Louisiana) is already calling for voluntary evacuations, schools are closed most of next week.

 

I am carefully watching the Weather channel. They seem to have less hype and more real information than the other news channels. We've already been through Humberto last year and Eduardo this year and they were nothing. This one does have me concerned.

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Gustav is a Category 3 storm at the moment so it is wise to keep watch. Its projected path over Cuba, however, could present an interesting bump in the road. Despite that, forecasters are saying that it might be a Category 4 storm tomorrow. Yikes!

 

Take care everyone along the Gulf Coast!

 

Jane

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FWIW Orange County, Texas has issued a *voluntary* evacuation that began at 6:00am this morning.

 

They have already stated that may become a *mandatory* evacuation tomorrow morning at 6:00am if Gustav continues on it's current projected path. This would be due to flooding as there is only one computer model forcasting a direct hit for the Texas/Louisiana border.

 

That area was hit *hard* by Rita but not as hard as SW Louisiana. My sister and her family couldn't return home for 2 weeks.

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I know it's a hurricane. I know it could be headed for New Orleans. Is it that New Orleans is just not ready for any type of hurricane to hit it?

 

I understand that the people that lived through Katrina see things differently than I do (although I have lived through a few hurricanes and bad tropical storms). My heart goes out to them. They need to do what it takes in order to feel safe.

 

I'm just trying to figure this out. Please, please don't take this as criticism. If (if!) I'm criticizing anybody, it's the media. I have just seen too many hurricanes completely change paths, and this far out, it's impossible to tell where it will land.

 

We are right in the projected path of it,and most people I know have already evacuated. I feel it's because of Hur. Rita which hit immediately after Katrina. We are very used to Hurricanes on the coast, but we we're not prepared for what Rita brought us. We evacuated to North Texas- a 5 hour drive. However, it was like the end of the world! It took us 26 hours of straight driving just to get 5 hours away. It took 2 hours just to get 10 minutes down the road from my house. It was chaos. People were running out of gas, breaking down on the side of the road....freaking out and afraid. There was no gas anywhere in town for 100 miles. Then after the storm hit it was devastation. We were without electricity for 3 weeks, and some of us without for over a month. There were very few stores open and very few restaurants open as well. That's just a small bit of the experiences here. So now everyone is jumpy about mention of a hurricane. We are leaving today or tomorrow just to avoid the traffic. You are right about the media...they sure can get everyone in a panic. Last night I was watching a special on Katrina and the damage it did, and that sent me in a panic! So, let's pray that this one isn't so bad!

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I can understand why NOLA is panicked. The interesting thing is that here in central MS, Walmart was out of water on Wednesday. Wednesday, before Gustav had even reached Jamaica. I was here when Katrina hit and it was a real shock how much damage we had here. It was a category 1 when it came through. My mom did not have power for a month. Many people did not have running water. We are in the Jackson area. It was devastating here and we are not even near the coast.

 

So, I understand the panic here, somewhat. But, many people here were really jumping the gun. I just stayed put and waited. Now it looks like it is heading west. So, instead of wasting money on water, canned goods and flashlights, I can spend money on food for our family who will be joining us from Slidell.:D

 

People are panicked because it seems like Katrina just happened. Louisiana panic I understand, but everyone else needs to take a deep breath.

 

Paula

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Due to the devastation of Katrina and other natural disasters in the recent years, I think that they are trying to be more prepared, just in case. I don't think that's necessarily a bad idea. My dh is on alert and waiting. They were supposed to send him yesterday, but called it off. His bags are packed and he'll head to NO or anywhere else they send him. It may be closer to West Texas than NO, but that's ok. Having support can't ever be a bad thing.

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Yesterday there were memorials all over the city, as it was the third anniversary of Katrina. Today they are bussing the elderly and infirm out of all areas around New Orleans, and they are calling for mandatory evacuations today in many areas, including where we live. I understand the mass hysteria, but I'm not going to get caught up in it. We're staying until Sunday night or Monday morning, and making our decision only when we're much, much more certain of where this storm will make landfall. The good side of that is that most people are leaving today, so by Monday morning we should spend 16 hours driving 350 miles like we did with Katrina.

 

I just went to the grocery and everyone was in total panic mode. You have to realize that most of these people just got done rebuilding their homes - just moved back into their houses after 3 years in a tiny FEMA trailer. The Katrina wounds are fresh, even still raw, in many of the residents here. I've been having mild anxiety attacks since Wednesday just from the "intensity" of everyone in the area. I refuse to watch the news, I'm just keeping an eye on the NOAA tracks on the internet, and we'll use that to make our final decision.

 

To many of you, Katrina may seem like ancient history. To me, I remember it like it was 3 weeks ago, rather than 3 years.

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WOW! Well, I am glad I read all this because I am sure praying for those in LA, Miss & Texas. I hate that any of you might be facing this again.

 

 

I live 175 miles inland of the coast (Al & Fla) and we still got hit pretty hard by Ivan. We had gusts around 120 MPH. The devastation was terrible. Trees down everywhere. It looked like a war zone. We were without power for 9 days and WO a phone (Internet) for over a month. (I realize this is NOTHING compared to what those in LA, Miss, & Tx went through) but- still it does make you shiver when one starts heading up the Gulf.

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We're on the "clean" side of Gustavo today and it is just windy and rainy with patches of clear sky. If you live in hurricane country and don't read Dr. Masters' blog, it is difficult to be well-informed.

 

Here is Gustavo just a little while ago - we are at about 87W 20.5N

 

2811238789_29e64741b1.jpg

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The waters of the Gulf are so warm right now that Gustav is expected to strengthen significantly. It is a cat 4 right now and may easily go to a cat 5 before it makes landfall. What was Katrina, a cat 3?

 

The current westward path may push water up into the mouth of the Mississippi and cause flooding around Lake Ponchetrain. Even if storm surge is not heavy in the immediate areas south of NO, futher west it is expected to be quite significant. And they're also expecting this storm to dump even more rains than Fay did on Florida. All these things taken together lead to significant flooding problems.

 

If flooding of roads occurs, folks may not be able to get out once the storm moves closer to shore. Better to move now, while there's time for the traffic delays that can be expected under these sorts of circumstances. Even when they make both sides of the interstates outgoing, they can become parking lots.

 

The Corp of Engineers has not brought the levee system around NO up to the recs that were made after Katrina (before, too). Areas that did not give way before may still be significantly weakened and may give way this time around, especially if waters pile up too much against them.

 

I haven't checked this for a while now, but last time I did, lots of folks down there were still in FEMA trailers - and that's no where to be in a blow like this one. Not all roads had been fully repaired yet last time I checked, either.

 

There's another hurricane tracking westward directly behind this one, which looks like it might move right across the Florida panhandle and into the Gulf, much like Andrew did a few years back. Coming right on the heels of Gustav, it could multiply problems exponentially.

 

A lot of the buildings damaged in Katrina in southeast Louisiana are still not fully repaired yet and would not provide even the level or protection that they did last time around.

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Not to make light of the situation, but my husband's name is Gustav and it is totally bizarre to see it plastered everywhere and keep hearing it all over the place. It's not a popular name at all. I am not used to seeing/hearing it.

 

I was a freshman at the University of Miami when Andrew came through. I remember how terrifying it was, and that was 'just' a category IV. My prayers go out to all of you who are in Gustav's path.

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