Swine flu #2

[Renai]

Hmm. Weird. We have one confirmed case here in AZ and ours isn't on the map. The other thing that makes me wonder is all those cases in CA and TX, but none (well, one) in Mexico and Arizona which are also border states. I don't get it :confused:

 

Barb

 

I'm sure you mean NEW Mexico :tongue_smilie:, and there are two, possibly three suspected cases as of this mornings news. Two in our northern county. The one not in our county is home-schooled.

[Barb_]

I'm sure you mean NEW Mexico :tongue_smilie:, and there are two, possibly three suspected cases as of this mornings news. Two in our northern county. The one not in our county is home-schooled.

 

:lol: Duh, yeah that's exactly what I meant. I feel like a dweeb. At any rate, it's interesting that we weren't on the front lines of this, days ago. Then again, I still suspect that in our case at least, Health and Human services (along with Education, the Arts, Libraries, and pretty much everything else receiving state funding) has suffered deep, deep budget cuts this year and probably was less than prepared to jump on this as it was happening.

 

Barb

[fivetails]

The news says four more confirmed cases in our province, in Calgary. "Four young people who went on a trip to Mexico together"

 

I'll tell you what is really ticking me off though, is the way that our medical officer fella has NO problem letting people know when they have (a) confirmed case(s) in CALGARY --- but when it's up north here, he flat out refused to identify the community, citing concerns about "panic and the privacy of the family". Sure, no problem letting people in OTHER towns/cities know that there are confirmed cases in theirs, but we get the shaft up north. We didn't want their names for heaven's sake - just confirmation as to what town! All he would say (and he did specifically say that he refused to name the town) was "northern Alberta".

 

Someone on a local message board (for our town) said they heard there were several cases here. Not like we'll get an official notification, apparently. (I haven't lived in this province long, so I don't know if the seemingly different treatment for the northern residents is the norm or what.. a few people seem to think it is, and that there may be concern due to the high number of residents - oil sands workers - in this town and the fairly small hospital. We're also isolated - it's an hour & a half or something by plane to the nearest larger medical center. /wondering/ ... )

 

Oh and get this: a guy here went looking for an N65 (95?) mask thinger, for a completely diff reason (for work on his home renovations) and was told at the store that they were told not to sell those to the public (along with other sanitizing items) because they're the ones that can prevent the virus spreading.... (which was news to him, he just needed it for working) ... they didn't say *who* told them that. I wonder.... store management? Government? Why?? /wondering/

 

And a third - ha, may as well get all my annoyances out at once eh? I was reading the online version of the town paper for where we used to live until just before Christmas (PEI) and the headline there was that the "PEI government ordered not to discuss suspected cases" --- apparently, Canadian Public Health ordered the government not to comment on any cases unless they were confirmed. So, if they had, say, several teenagers come down with what MIGHT be this flu, they aren't allowed to say until it's confirmed ---- so I wonder how that would work... since they can't mention it, how do they go about closing a school is necessary? Hmm, school closed for.. ducks on the roof. :glare:

 

Yes, I've got my nose in a snit at the moment. May be partly the excess of coffee I've drank today.:tongue_smilie: These things are just bugging me. Unequal treatment of our northern communities, yoinking things from the shelves (under whose authority??), shushing people. Don't like it.

 

 

In better news, I gave dh a bottle of alcohol-based hand sanitizer and he actually took it to work. Whether he uses it or not, that's a goat of a different colour.

[Jenn in Mo]

This doesn't make sense to me:

 

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D97SRNG80&show_article=1

 

Hospitalized in Brownsville a month ago, transferred to Houston.....but went shopping first? Or are they saying the Brownsville hospital stay was unrelated? From other reports I thought I understood that he had been ill and hospitalized for nearly a month and transferred when things went downhill.

[hillfarm]

I think we need to cut the experts a little slack. They are trying to use a system that is basically untried to track something incredibly difficult to pin down that may already involve tens of thousands of people over the entire globe. There are major issues regarding reporting of probable cases. In order to be considered confirmed, a case must have been verified in a lab using a specific procedure. From anecdotal information I am reading, for each confirmed case, there may be tenfold (or even a hundredfold) more who are probables. For each probable, there may be tenfold cases that are asymptomatic or have only very mild symptoms that could easily be confused with allergies or other illnesses--but each one a carrier of this flu just the same.

 

So far, the US has been very fortunate to have only mild cases. However, many top immunologists have voiced concerns that this was the situation early in 1918 and also a month ago in Mexico. One of the problems with pandemic flu is that waiting to take action until there is an obvious threat means that you have allowed countless millions to be exposed during that wait-and-see period. The alternative is to take precautions that many perceive as unnecessary and premature in the hopes that many of those millions could be spared. I am solidly in the Better Safe than Sorry camp.

 

Also, it might be important to consider this current flu as a timely warning. If this virus continues in its similarity to the 1918 one, it will be more active in the southern hemisphere during the summer and less active here, but will return to us with a vengence again in the fall.

 

Here is an unedited version of an interview with Dr. Henry Niman, molecular virologist who developed the flu tracking map:http://www.wpxi.com/video/19313969/index.html

It is a little long but very informative.

[Perry]

Here's something I've been wondering about:

NY has 51 confirmed cases according to CDC. Reports indicated many family members of those 51 are also sick, but it appears no testing is done to confirm all those sick with flu symptoms are sick with H1N1.

 

Is there any thing to indicate how much this illness is being underreported? Are there 5 cases of H1N1 for every 1 confirmed case? Or are there 50 or 500?

 

I don't know of any numbers yet, but it's a virtual certainty that it's underreported. The question is to what degree. It's a critical question, because that's how we come up with case fatality rates, attack rates, etc. which help determine how virulent the disease is.

[Perry]

Does this [the possible immunity of people over 51] have any implications for being around people born pre-1957? I mean, I guess we can't suck up their immunity, but I'd imagine they could be asymptomatic carriers? And if they're asymptomatic, they might take it less seriously.

 

Usually asymptomatic carriers don't shed much virus, as they're not sneezing, coughing and blowing their noses which are the best ways to spread virus. And I doubt if asymptomatic >51 year olds are going to act much differently than asymptomatic <51 year olds. IOW, if I had to share a glass with an asymptomatic person, I'd rather they were older than younger.

[Perry]

OK, I have a question for you: I know some pandemic flus hit "healthy young people" i.e., 25-45. I get that they wouldn't hit older people who have left-over immunity from previous flus, but why would the <25 crowd be spared?

That's a good question and I don't know the answer. I'm not sure this has ever really been explained.

[Perry]

And why does the confirmation take so long. The 99% chance cases that were reported in Illinois and Wisconsin yesterday morning still haven't been "officially confirmed" - even ones that have been run through a special quick system at a hospital in Milwaukee that does gene sequencing -- they're still pending. It seems to me that the slow confirmation must be adding to the spread.

 

Also, btw, there are reports around here that people are going in with full-blown symptoms and the doctors are saying "It's just a virus. Let it take its course." without bothering to test at all.

 

In addition to what others have said, there are only a handful of places that can do confirmatory testing, and a limited number of people who know how to do it. Naturally they're overwhelmed.

Edited April 30, 2009 by Perry

[Perry]

I wonder if once you get the flu can you get it again? They just don't seem to know much about it right now, or they aren't sharing.

 

Having the flu will protect you from having it again, as long as the strain is the same. Over time, the virus undergoes gradual changes, called antigenic drift. The more drift, the more differences in the proteins, the less your body "remembers" it. As the virus changes, your body has less protection, but some protection is better than nothing and it may mean less severe illness.

[love2read]

For those who "don't get it" look for the flu thread that was active 4/28 and 4/29. Perry, who is an infectious disease specialists, explains what's going on with facts and some stats along with why people are so concerned. There is too much in that thread to cut and paste it here.

 

Better yet, just click on her name and read everything she's posted-check under statistics for posts. Maybe this link will work

http://www.welltrainedmind.com/forums/search.php?searchid=2130620

Edited April 30, 2009 by love2read

[newbie]

Perry,,

 

Thank you, for your time and information.

[tiffanyl]

Here's another good article!

 

Critical Alert: The Swine Flu Pandemic – Fact or Fiction?

 

http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2009/04/29/Swine-Flu.aspx

 

 

 

 

 

Tiffany

[Perry]

My dh is traveling a lot for work which leaves him flying through Atlanta, Dallas, or Houston. How worried should we be about this? What precautions should we be taking? Not flying isn't an option and I'm nervous about him bringing the flu home with him.

 

Let me just say that I really appreciate your input on all of this, Perry.

 

I guess I really wouldn't be any more worried than with the regular flu. I'd approach it the same way; wash hands frequently and stay away from hacking, sneezing, coughing people. I don't think masks are necessary at this point.

[fshinkevich]

Here's another good article!

 

Critical Alert: The Swine Flu Pandemic – Fact or Fiction?

 

http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2009/04/29/Swine-Flu.aspx

 

 

 

 

 

Tiffany

 

That article has MANY things that don't sit well with me, here are just a few:

 

I thought that the strep thing in 1918 was just a theory and not based on facts?

 

This strain is in fact two different pig viruses and not the human/pig/bird strain originally thought.

 

Doesn't add up to a real pandemic? People don't have to die for it to be a pandemic, this has spread rapidly, all over the world.

 

The whole AIDS thing is a conspiracy theory, not fact.

[Tree House Academy]

I guess I really wouldn't be any more worried than with the regular flu. I'd approach it the same way; wash hands frequently and stay away from hacking, sneezing, coughing people. I don't think masks are necessary at this point.

 

This is how we are trying to approach it for now. But I am definitely keeping informed and trying to prepare for the worst while hoping for the best!

[Perry]

 

Perry ~ That said, what do you recommend we do at this point? I'm sooooo bored staying home. I've been sick so staying home was convenient actually, but I'd like to get out again.

 

Dh is saying stay out of populated parks, library etc.

 

But, gosh, the boy down the street had the flu and two of his school mates and they're all recovering fine. So far, this flu seems mild. I mean, since we're not in Mexico.

 

So, I'm unclear what we should do at this point.

 

 

Alicia

 

Here's what CDC says:

What You Can Do to Stay Healthy

 

 

 

• Stay informed. This website will be updated regularly as information becomes available.

• Influenza is thought to spread mainly person-to-person through coughing or sneezing of infected people.

• Take everyday actions to stay healthy.
  • Cover your nose and mouth with a tissue when you cough or sneeze. Throw the tissue in the trash after you use it.

  • Wash your hands often with soap and water, especially after you cough or sneeze. Alcohol-based hands cleaners are also effective.

  • Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth. Germs spread that way.

  • Stay home if you get sick. CDC recommends that you stay home from work or school and limit contact with others to keep from infecting them.

   

  [*]Follow public health advice regarding school closures, avoiding crowds and other social distancing measures.

  [*]Develop a family emergency plan as a precaution. This should include storing a supply of food, medicines, facemasks, alcohol-based hand rubs and other essential supplies.

  [*]Call 1-800-CDC-INFO for more information.

   

 

 

 

 

I really think that's all good advice. I'm not planning to do anything different than that, unless people start dying all over the place. Then things will change.

[TravelingChris]

DR. Mercola seems to me to be a conspiracy theory person. I don't hold those people credible at all. For him to say that no one should get the flu vaccine is insane. Why? I have been getting the flu vaccine for over 25 years. Neither I nor any of my family members who also get vaccinated because of me or their work have ever had the flu. Who wants the flu?

I am at high risk for flu complications since I have several chronic illnesses including asthma and am on immunosuppressants.

 

It has been proven that those who died in Mexico did not have strep. They also did not have a different strain. Furthermore, air pollution has nothing to do with it since they also die in clean air places. More likely, I think, is that they don't get flu vaccines on a regular basis. Many of us do. Our flu vaccines give some amount of immunity even if not complete. We don't get as serious a disease. Or on the other hand, we may have not had as many people sick for as long to get the deaths yet.

[fshinkevich]

Here's what CDC says:

 

 

 

I really think that's all good advice. I'm not planning to do anything different than that, unless people start dying all over the place. Then things will change.

 

I am doing all this, with a few extra steps. I HS my younger kids, but I have two older in PS. When they get home I have them pop in the shower, and I get their school clothes straight into the wash. A little extra measure I would not normally do. I am paying attention to the news, and am getting a plan in place in case things change.

 

I have a lot of friends that are calling me paranoid, and claiming it's all hype, and it makes me a little upset. If people are not taking it seriously they are more likely to spread this around, which even with the regular flu could be risky for certain people.

 

I don't view it as being scared, I don't think I am scared at all, I am very calm. I'm being logical, IMO. Even when it's regular flu season I avoid enclosed, crowded places. I don't like being sick, and I don't like my kids (esp. my toddlers) being sick. It's not worth it. This one demands a little extra caution because we don't know what it will do yet, and there is no vaccine. Mexico had the virus going around for a month or more before people started dying, we have not had it that long. I'm more concerned about what will happen in a few months time anyway. I just don't think it's a big deal to be a little more careful than usual and if it blows over, great. I definitely do not view it as hype though, I think it has potential to be very serious.

[Perry]

I must be missing something. Seriously - can someone tell me why we should be so worried about being exposed to what sounds like glorified sniffles?

 

edited because I realized too late the tone sounds bad. I don't mean this in a snarky way. I am just. not. understanding. and I'm usually the one jumping on the fear-wagon.

 

If it turns out that SIV causes a mild illness (and it may well) we shouldn't be worried at all. But there is so much uncertainty about how it's going to play out. Initially, there were very worrisome similarities to the 1918 flu. As the days go on, it looks less like that flu, but we just don't know yet.

[fivetails]

Canada's first public school closure, far as I know (not counting the private school in NS with the four students - that, I believe, is a boarding school)

 

A school in Vernon, B.C., has been closed after one student was confirmed to have swine flu, officials said on Thursday.

[Heather in AL]

That makes sense, but it's sad, of that's the case. If that is what is happening, then it really will skew the statistics. Maybe if we had a better idea of just how many people were actually getting this flu, and recovering, then there wouldn't be as much panic as there is now. Of course, that assumes that the illness rate is, in fact, higher than is being reported.

 

Thanks again!

[Tree House Academy]

Have there been reports of abnormal hoarseness with the H1N1 flu other than that seemingly bogus e-mail from the doctor that was posted here earlier?

 

I ask because I have a friend in Knoxville, TN. She is a nurse and about a week ago, she had this bizarre illness where she had a sore throat, then popped a fever of about 102. The fever lasted a day or so and then she got this really odd hoarseness. She never had fever again, never felt all that bad, but even her doctor said that was "weird." Then I read about odd hoarseness with the H1N1 flu and it made me think...hmmmm. LOL - not to mention that I spent the day with her this Saturday! (for the first time in about 2 years that we had not seen each other. Go figure!)

[Danestress]

Is the WHO rating really about how quickly the virus is spreading rather than how dangerous it is? I would feel a lot better if that were the case, because while it does seem to be spreading quickly, if it's really not unlike regular flu, I can live with that.

[Alicia64]

The funny thing to me about the CDC recommendations: doesn't everyone do them already??

 

Who kisses and cuddles people who are sneezing? And I stay away from others if I'm sick. I think it's very rude to expose other people to a cold let alone the flu.

 

And I wash my hands all the time already.

 

Maybe these things seem super obvious to moms since this is the sort of thing we're teaching our kids every day.

 

Alicia

[fshinkevich]

The funny thing to me about the CDC recommendations: doesn't everyone do them already??

 

Who kisses and cuddles people who are sneezing? And I stay away from others if I'm sick. I think it's very rude to expose other people to a cold let alone the flu.

 

And I wash my hands all the time already.

 

Maybe these things seem super obvious to moms since this is the sort of thing we're teaching our kids every day.

 

Alicia

 

You would not believe the amount of people that go into DH's work sick. I even remember when my last daughter was just born one of his coworkers had thrown up that morning, looked like he'd been hit by a truck (according to my DH) and still went to work :glare: I was not very happy.

[Perry]

My comments in red....

 

I got these quotes off another board, maybe not the nicest tone, but I thought they were good. Makes sense to me.

 

Regular Influenza has a .2% morality rate. So if 1000 people get infected, 2 die

It's hard to get good numbers- a more commonly used number is .1%

 

This strain has a 5-10% mortality rate. So if 1000 people get infected, 100 die.

Whoa! Luckily, that doesn't seem to be true. Or we'd be in big trouble- that's worse than the 1918 case fatality rate (cfr). Initially that number was thrown around because there were ~100 deaths per ~1000 hospitalized cases. It quickly became apparent that there were many more cases than that, but the majority weren't seen by HCW or diagnosed. It's much more likely to be closer to the .1% of seasonal flu, although we won't know the cfr until we have a better understanding of how many cases there are. That requires some epi studies that take time. Those are underway.

 

Some technical minutiae: They are using mortality rate incorrectly. Mortality rate is Number of deaths per # of population, usually expressed as # of deaths/100,000 people. That's ALL people, not just sick people. Case fatality rate (ratio, really, not rate, but who cares) is # dead /# sick with the disease.

 

Its 50 times more lethal, more infectious and just like the flu will hit us all year long.

 

We don't know how infectious or lethal it is yet. That's wild speculation and almost certainly a gross overestimate.

 

 

People have some natural immunity to the standard yearly flu strain given past exposures and vaccinations. People have no immunity to the Mexican flu... this is true (swine is racist now?... calling it swine flu is accurate but will have a major adverse economic impact on the swine industry. You can't blame them for wanting to limit the impact. There is no logical reason for people to stop eating pork or to slaughter pigs, but it's happening. ). H1N1 is lethal and we will not see how bad it is for 60-90 days of exposure when it is already too late.

Thats why im shocked at the apathy and empty rhetoric coming out of some people.

 

 

***

 

 

 

So we dont panic until 100 people die? or 1,000? or 10,000? or 100,000?

You dont seem to understand how flu works. By the time you start having death rates in the thousands you already have millions infected. This thing takes 3 weeks to kill and 2 weeks to gestate. Incubation period is 1-2 days, 5 at the most. Definitely not 2 weeks. You will not see the true death rates of this thing for 60-90 days when we get full exposure and spread.

[WishboneDawn]

Is the WHO rating really about how quickly the virus is spreading rather than how dangerous it is? I would feel a lot better if that were the case, because while it does seem to be spreading quickly, if it's really not unlike regular flu, I can live with that.

 

That's right. It's about how it's spreading and how far rather then the deadliness of it.

[Perry]

My comments in red...

Thank you, Barb. I do see these points and don't mean to imply that we shouldn't be carefully watching this. The oddity of different reactions in Mexico demand that this be studied carefully. And I understand that if it were to undergo some sort of change, a 2nd wave could prove dangerous. My confusion lies in the current fear of the current situation, not future what-if's. I hear people saying "They found a case in my state, should I still go buy groceries?" and have to cock my head sideways and say "huh?" At this moment, the worst case scenario is....you catch the sniffles? Sniffles with a scary name, but sniffles nonetheless.

 

As for mortality rates being a higher percentage, isn't current data saying something like only 8 confirmed deaths? There is so much conflicting data out there, it's confusing. Yes, it is confusing. I wish CDC and WHO would get on the same page. I'm going to paste a blog post from Effect Measure below that addresses the discrepancy in numbers.

 

I'm ready to jump in and freak out at any time.....I just want to be sure it's time first. ;)

 

 

revere As is usual (routine? no, nothing routine about this) in an evolving epidemic contradictory and confusing numbers are appearing. Some of them are the result of information lags (tallies not being updated), some are the result of using different criteria for counting (suspect versus probable versus lab confirmed, etc.), some are just rumors. WHO is saying that in Mexico there are only 7 confirmed deaths, 19 more lab confirmed cases, 159 probable cases and some 1300 being evaluated, based on official reporting to them by officials of a member state, the Mexico. Everyone knows there are many more cases, however, so the WHO related reporting is more confusing than informative. CDC says there are 91 confirmed cases in the US on their swine flu page but 64 cases on the CDC home page as of 12:30 pm ET, 4/29). That's an information lag, within the same agency. The fact that there are more confirmed cases in the US than Mexico is not a reflection of how many cases are really in each place but how they are being recognized, confirmed, counted and updated.

 

 

 

 

.........................

 

 

What's the take home message? We should stop fixating on hourly changes in numbers or differences about the sequences and keep our eye on the Big Picture. Right now that picture is still cloudy, but will be coming into sharper focus as new information accrues and is organized. Generally, though, we have a novel virus (in the sense that the human population is immunologically naive to it) that is spreading person to person and seems to have clinical characteristics not unlike usual seasonal influenza. Because of its novelty the number of people it could make sick is potentially far greater than a seasonal virus, however, since there is no naturally acquired immunity we know of at the moment (it may turn out there is some cross reactivity with some other strain from years past but so far we have no evidence of that).

 

[fivetails]

The funny thing to me about the CDC recommendations: doesn't everyone do them already??

 

Who kisses and cuddles people who are sneezing? And I stay away from others if I'm sick. I think it's very rude to expose other people to a cold let alone the flu.

 

And I wash my hands all the time already.

 

Maybe these things seem super obvious to moms since this is the sort of thing we're teaching our kids every day.

 

Alicia

You would not believe the amount of people that go into DH's work sick. I even remember when my last daughter was just born one of his coworkers had thrown up that morning, looked like he'd been hit by a truck (according to my DH) and still went to work :glare: I was not very happy.

 

If a person *can* stay home from work for whatever illness they have, GREAT. Seriously. But sometimes it just isn't an option. Missing work time may mean being unable to pay rent - sometimes, it may even mean being fired. Unfortunately. It isn't fair, but it happens.

[Tree House Academy]

I can't believe one country (can't remember which) has ordered the slaughter of all of the swine in their country. Oh my! :( We have a freezer full of pork and don't have swine flu. What is wrong with people!?

[Kathleen in VA]

2 suspected cases have been reported in Virginia now. Both were folks who had travelled to Mexico and both cases were mild - no hospitalization required.

[fshinkevich]

We have more cases in Santa Clara County, and one in SF.

 

4 more schools in our county are closing.

[HeatherInWI]

I can't believe one country (can't remember which) has ordered the slaughter of all of the swine in their country. Oh my! :( We have a freezer full of pork and don't have swine flu. What is wrong with people!?

 

That was Egypt. I suspect it was actually a political attack on a religious minority, cloaked in supposed fears of swine flu. Egypt is a majority Muslim country in which the native Egyptian Christians (Copts) are often harassed. In this case, since Muslims don't eat or touch pork, all of the pigs belonged to the Copts. Since there was the swine flu as an excuse, the government decided to order all of the pigs killed, but with no restitution/renumeration because they declared that the pork could still be sold. Right, like when slaughtering an entire country's pig population there will be a lot of people willing to pay high prices for the pork? And if the government was legitimately fearful that the pigs were carrying the flu, wouldn't they have declared the meat unsafe?

 

I'm wondering what the rest of the world can do to help this poor, harassed minority.

[Cathy in IL]

There seems to be a rush on the hospitals here. Children's Memorial had over 300 children pass through the ER from midnight to this morning. They had 80 children waiting at about 10am. I am just hoping we don't have any emergencies any time soon with numbers like that in the ER!

[Perry]

That's what I find confusing and is why I don't get it. If indeed the mortality rates are higher for the swine flu, then why aren't there already deaths in the the U.S. since so many people have gotten it? Will the mortality rate only show itself higher with the potential second wave??

No one knows what the case fatality rate (cfr) is yet. That's the trouble- we can't calculate rates without better data, and it takes some time to get it.

 

We have ~100 (known) cases in the US. If it is similar to or milder than the seasonal flu, with an estimated 1/1000 cfr, we wouldn't be likely to see any deaths for awhile. If the cfr is higher than with seasonal flu, we should start seeing deaths soon. Every day we go without a death is more reassuring. It's become pretty clear over the last couple days that this isn't going to be a repeat of 1918. But there was no way of knowing that a week ago.

[Perry]

The funny thing to me about the CDC recommendations: doesn't everyone do them already??

 

Who kisses and cuddles people who are sneezing? And I stay away from others if I'm sick. I think it's very rude to expose other people to a cold let alone the flu.

 

And I wash my hands all the time already.

 

Maybe these things seem super obvious to moms since this is the sort of thing we're teaching our kids every day.

 

Alicia

 

Oh, I wish they did!

 

You know, it's difficult to even get doctors to wash their hands between patients. I think this is better than it used to be, but it's still a big problem. And restaurant workers are notorious for going to the bathroom and returning to work without washing their hands. Happens all the time. YUK.

 

So no, many people don't follow even the most basic principles of hygiene, even those who have no excuse.

[Perry]

My question, "How certain are they that the whole thing started with the 5yo?" has been answered by this article: Scientists struggle to understand swine flu virus

 

A current theory is that the outbreak started in the town of La Gloria on the eastern coast of Mexico, because a 5-year-old boy was the first known case. He first suffered flu-like symptoms in late March. However, Mexican health officials have downplayed claims the outbreak started in La Gloria, because mucous samples of other patients from there found nothing.

 

Barb

 

Great article! Thanks for posting it.

[Tree House Academy]

Out of curiousity...

 

If the government were to close down EVERYTHING for a week, couldn't the spread be severely slowed. I mean, I am thinking, if this were something terrible - like Ebola - isn't there something they could do? Could they not be really drastic for a few minutes and put a huge hault to the whole thing? My hubby sure would like a week off work. ;)

[Perry]

This doesn't make sense to me:

 

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D97SRNG80&show_article=1

 

Hospitalized in Brownsville a month ago, transferred to Houston.....but went shopping first? Or are they saying the Brownsville hospital stay was unrelated? From other reports I thought I understood that he had been ill and hospitalized for nearly a month and transferred when things went downhill.

 

There is a detailed timeline here

[elise1mds]

It's crazy how many people have been heading to the doctor today. There were so many heading to the system I work for (as a home-based MT for an out-of-state company) that the dictators actually overloaded the system. The IT department had to bring a second server online to handle the case load. Crazy crazy... but I'm definitely glad things are settling down.

[Perry]

Is the WHO rating really about how quickly the virus is spreading rather than how dangerous it is? I would feel a lot better if that were the case, because while it does seem to be spreading quickly, if it's really not unlike regular flu, I can live with that.

 

An influenza pandemic means that a novel influenza virus has emerged in humans, and that since it is new, there is no immunity to it, resulting in widespread infection. Pandemics usually result in elevated numbers of serious illness and death, but it's certainly possible to have a "mild" pandemic that looks similar to seasonal flu. The key, for influenza, is that it is a new virus that hasn't previously been seen in humans.

 

In a pandemic, you usually see rapid transmission, but it doesn't necessarily have to occur that way. It's theoretically possible that the illness could spread slowly, though I can't think of an example where that's happened.

 

Typical pandemics *result* in increased severity of illness, elevated death rates, and rapid transmission. But they aren't necessary for an infectious disease to be considered a pandemic.

 

I don't have first hand information about the cases and how rapidly it's being transmitted, but I'm not convinced it's really spreading all that quickly. Almost all of the US cases seem to be in people with recent travel to Mexico. I know there are some infected family members, but I would have expected more extensive transmission within a community by now if it was going to spread rapidly.

 

As I said before though, that could change in a hurry.

[Perry]

Have there been reports of abnormal hoarseness with the H1N1 flu other than that seemingly bogus e-mail from the doctor that was posted here earlier?

 

I ask because I have a friend in Knoxville, TN. She is a nurse and about a week ago, she had this bizarre illness where she had a sore throat, then popped a fever of about 102. The fever lasted a day or so and then she got this really odd hoarseness. She never had fever again, never felt all that bad, but even her doctor said that was "weird." Then I read about odd hoarseness with the H1N1 flu and it made me think...hmmmm. LOL - not to mention that I spent the day with her this Saturday! (for the first time in about 2 years that we had not seen each other. Go figure!)

 

I don't know if it is especially common with this swine flu, but hoarse voice is occasionally seen with influenza (and various other respiratory infections) in general.

[Perry]

Several people have asked for advice on what to do about traveling, attending school, going out in public, use of masks, etc.

 

First, I don't feel entirely comfortable giving that sort of advice - everyone has their own comfort level with potentially risky situations, and people have different levels of risk tolerance. Some may feel comfortable letting their kids jump on a trampoline while others are horrified by the idea. There just isn't a correct answer.

 

I think it's really important to keep perspective. There are over 40,000 fatalities a year from car crashes. You are MUCH more likely to be killed in a wreck tomorrow than die of the flu.

 

My personal approach is to look at this flu like any other flu, and do what I can to minimize risk. As far as travel, I guess it depends on the situation. I would heed CDC's advice about avoiding non-essential travel to Mexico. I wouldn't let seasonal flu keep me from going to social events or on vacation, and I wouldn't let this one either, unless things take a turn for the worse.

[Sebastian (a lady)]

I hear people saying "They found a case in my state, should I still go buy groceries?" and have to cock my head sideways and say "huh?"

 

I think that my personal answer is that if the family needed to stay home for a week (from chicken pox or lice or flu or whatever) would you have the resources on hand to do that. If I don't want to be dipping into my typhoon kit, I need to make a grocery store run. But that's because I haven't been to the store in almost a week and I'm out of eggs, bread and milk. Will I take the opportunity of the trip to also get an extra box of tissue, a bottle of children's motrin and some hand sanitizer? You bet.

 

I don't think that I'm being fearful. I think that I'm practicing prudence. I live overseas and should something happen (from earthquake to the upcoming typhoon season to an illness) odds are, dh will be away and family is even further away.

 

However, on the subject of grocery trips before emergencies, before hurricanes, much of what is sold is chips and beer. That has always made me laugh.

[WishboneDawn]

I don't know if it is especially common with this swine flu, but hoarse voice is occasionally seen with influenza (and various other respiratory infections) in general.

 

I've got it with the bronchitis I'm dealing with at the moment. I suspect any infection that has you coughing a lot for a few days or two will result in some hoarseness.

[fivetails]

 

Who kisses and cuddles people who are sneezing?

 

Well, that depends who the sneezing person is ;)

 

I still give kisses & cuddles & hugs to our kids when they're sick - usually they *want* and *need* the extra affection because they feel so blech. If I catch their germs, well, then I catch their germs. And I usually do. :tongue_smilie:

[Heather in AL]

I hear people saying "They found a case in my state, should I still go buy groceries?" and have to cock my head sideways and say "huh?"

 

 

I feel the same way. People here are canceling everything, and the grocery stores seem to be empty of shoppers...but the teens and kids out of school are going to the malls and movies. :001_huh: I did have the kids skip their band practice because it's in a VERY small building that tons of hsers plow through, and I *always* feel that the place runs on the germy side. I was going to allow my ds to go to his piano lesson until the teacher called to cancel.

 

I figure that I'm trying not to panic, so I'm treating this as any other flu outbreak, and that it's one that we're very possible to get. Especially since two kids in our area have "probable" cases and all schools in the county are closed, so it's most likely here. Our area also has a HIGH number of business travelers going to/through Dallas. When deciding whether or not to do something or go somewhere, I'm asking myself "would I do this/did I do this during the normal flu season?", and if the answer is "yes", then we'll do it. Of course, that may change if new info comes out.

 

I will say, however, that it's hard to keep a level head when the media keeps 'reporting' on every little thing. And with the suspected cases here, the local media is having a field day!

 

May we all stay healthy....

[fivetails]

...but the teens and kids out of school are going to the malls and movies. :001_huh:

 

Most of them prolly have an empty house because their folks have to be at work...nobody there to make sure they stay home.

[Catwoman]

Well, that depends who the sneezing person is ;)

 

I still give kisses & cuddles & hugs to our kids when they're sick - usually they *want* and *need* the extra affection because they feel so blech. If I catch their germs, well, then I catch their germs. And I usually do. :tongue_smilie:

 

Same here! I really go overboard with things like handwashing and hygiene, but I am probably extra-cuddly when ds is ill.

 

Cat