Things that make you go, huh?

[TexasProud]

We are under a marginal risk of severe weather.  So police, weather channel everybody is saying look out for golf ball size hail and wind and lots of rain..  But then when I look at future radar I see no rain at all.  When I look at hourly forecast the biggest chance I see for any rain is 20 percent for the next 24 hours...    

I guess I just don't understand.  If we had a 50 percent or 75 percent chance of rain, then I would get it...  But how can we be at risk for bad weather when we may not get any rain at all. 

Edited May 8 by TexasProud

[rebcoola]

I would assume that its the route that may or may noy hit you.  That the weather system will be severe where it does hit. 

[TexasProud]

Just now, rebcoola said:

I would assume that its the route that may or may noy hit you.  That the weather system will be severe where it does hit. 

Ok, I guess I get that.  I am just afraid all of this will end up in a cry wolf situation. 

[TexasProud]

I mean so my area has a 1 out of 5 chance for weather to hit and then a 2 our of 5 chance that weather might be severe..   My math skills are not good enough to figure out the odds. 

[Katy]

There’s multiple factors. Basically heat & moisture from the gulf collide with cold dry air coming from the Rocky Mountains and when it hits at certain conditions with the right amount of wind shear they can predict severe storms and tornados about 10 days in advance. 

When we lived in Oklahoma we took a free online government tornado spotting class and started following a meteorologist named Aaron Tuttle on the advice of a neighbor. He has a free weather app that’s very good for Tornado Alley and he has social media channels where he goes live and explains all the science if you’re interested. 

[TexasProud]

16 minutes ago, Katy said:

There’s multiple factors. Basically heat & moisture from the gulf collide with cold dry air coming from the Rocky Mountains and when it hits at certain conditions with the right amount of wind shear they can predict severe storms and tornados about 10 days in advance. 

When we lived in Oklahoma we took a free online government tornado spotting class and started following a meteorologist named Aaron Tuttle on the advice of a neighbor. He has a free weather app that’s very good for Tornado Alley and he has social media channels where he goes live and explains all the science if you’re interested. 

I remember him from the time I lived there.  No, I get the factors that make it possible for the storms to form.  I just don't get why we have the dire warnings when we have a 20 percent chance of a 20 percent chance.  Like I said, we cannot live on alert 24/7.  Warn me when I need to worry. But we are getting so many, so often.  If I did my math correctly, which I definitely may not have, we have a 4 percent chance of the large hail and such.

[Pawz4me]

Marginal or slight risks of severe weather are common for us this time of the year. Today we have a slight risk. I don't know anyone who would think it was a "crying wolf" kind of thing if nothing happened. I mean . . everyone hopes it doesn't happen.

[Carrie12345]

We’ve seen what happens when a low ish-percentile area isn’t prepared for slight shifts that cause major change. There IS a wolf. And there’s a good chance it will stay away. But it has a mind of its own. 

[Katy]

32 minutes ago, TexasProud said:

I remember him from the time I lived there.  No, I get the factors that make it possible for the storms to form.  I just don't get why we have the dire warnings when we have a 20 percent chance of a 20 percent chance.  Like I said, we cannot live on alert 24/7.  Warn me when I need to worry. But we are getting so many, so often.  If I did my math correctly, which I definitely may not have, we have a 4 percent chance of the large hail and such.

I don’t think you did the math right. The hourly means that 20% of your area will be stormy in that hour. It’s going to partially form in your area. Last night we had a few spotty storms and one of them blew away one cushion from my patio set, after blowing the outdoor sofa up above waist high and slamming it back down. 

[TexasProud]

38 minutes ago, Pawz4me said:

Marginal or slight risks of severe weather are common for us this time of the year. Today we have a slight risk. I don't know anyone who would think it was a "crying wolf" kind of thing if nothing happened. I mean . . everyone hopes it doesn't happen.

Because typically if it is marginal risk, then that means I check the radar every hour.  I do not have the bandwidth nor the sleep deprivation to do that multiple times a week.

[Pawz4me]

2 minutes ago, TexasProud said:

Because typically if it is marginal risk, then that means I check the radar every hour.  I do not have the bandwidth nor the sleep deprivation to do that multiple times a week.

Gently -- That's your own issue (anxiety?). It's not a problem with the way the weather is forecast. The NWS, local forecasters and law enforcement agencies can't adapt their PSAs to suit your particular issues, they have to frame them for the public as a whole.

[TexasProud]

Just now, Pawz4me said:

Gently -- That's your own issue (anxiety?). It's not a problem with the way the weather is forecast. The NWS, local forecasters and law enforcement agencies can't adapt their PSAs to suit your particular issues, they have to frame them for the public as a whole.

But I am sorry, how is a 20 percent chance of a 20 percent chance a marginal risk????????    And there are LOTS of people like me who will eventually just ignore it.  They should save it for higher chance of stuff. 

[marbel]

16 minutes ago, TexasProud said:

Because typically if it is marginal risk, then that means I check the radar every hour.  I do not have the bandwidth nor the sleep deprivation to do that multiple times a week.

Why do you feel you need to check the radar every hour?  If you have stuff to protect from severe weather - like, I dunno, pets, glass stuff on the back deck, tender plants, whatever - then why not prep for the weather in case it comes, and then stop worrying about it?  I mean unless it's a possible tornado for which you'd have to go to the cellar, but aren't there usually alerts/warnings when one is imminent? We get alerts on our phones when dangerous/severe weather is imminent, including the two tornados that blew through in the 17 years I've lived here. 

[TexasProud]

Just now, marbel said:

Why do you feel you need to check the radar every hour?  If you have stuff to protect from severe weather - like, I dunno, pets, glass stuff on the back deck, tender plants, whatever - then why not prep for the weather in case it comes, and then stop worrying about it?  I mean unless it's a possible tornado for which you'd have to go to the cellar, but aren't there usually alerts/warnings when one is imminent? We get alerts on our phones when dangerous/severe weather is imminent, including the two tornados that blew through in the 17 years I've lived here. 

Yeah, the one that hit my house when I was growing up had no warning at all.  I still remember what the sky looked like.  So I am on the lookout for that kind of sky. 

[marbel]

Just now, TexasProud said:

Yeah, the one that hit my house when I was growing up had no warning at all.  I still remember what the sky looked like.  So I am on the lookout for that kind of sky. 

Well that must have been scary. So, do you check the sky constantly now, looking for a tornado, or just when there is a possibility of bad weather? 

IIRC you have a nice basement in your house. Is it a real basement, like safe for a tornado? If I was that anxious, I think I'd outfit it with the things I'd want and need if a tornado hit, and hang out there when there was a threat of one. I mean I'd make it very comfy and luxurious, so it'd be a nice hangout. Not a place to sit and worry. (Maybe that's the wrong approach for anxiety, I don't know, but it's what I think I would do.)

 

[TexasProud]

Just now, marbel said:

Well that must have been scary. So, do you check the sky constantly now, looking for a tornado, or just when there is a possibility of bad weather? 

IIRC you have a nice basement in your house. Is it a real basement, like safe for a tornado? If I was that anxious, I think I'd outfit it with the things I'd want and need if a tornado hit, and hang out there when there was a threat of one. I mean I'd make it very comfy and luxurious, so it'd be a nice hangout. Not a place to sit and worry. (Maybe that's the wrong approach for anxiety, I don't know, but it's what I think I would do.)

 

I only do that if we have a high risk for it.  Which is why it matters to me if the risk is real or not. If that makes sense.  Otherwise, I don't want to think about it at all. 
 

Yeah, no basement and no good interior room either.  We go to a tiny little half bathroom.  That is the only interior room. 

[marbel]

16 minutes ago, TexasProud said:

I only do that if we have a high risk for it.  Which is why it matters to me if the risk is real or not. If that makes sense.  Otherwise, I don't want to think about it at all. 
 

Yeah, no basement and no good interior room either.  We go to a tiny little half bathroom.  That is the only interior room. 

Ah OK sorry about that. I must have mixed you up with someone else or something. I was sure I remembered past threads where you talked about a basement where your husband had exercise equipment. 

[TexasProud]

Just now, marbel said:

Ah OK sorry about that. I must have mixed you up with someone else or something. I was sure I remembered past threads where you talked about a basement where your husband had exercise equipment. 

Nope.  We do have a very old exercise bike (AS in from his childhood in the 70's...) in a playroom. But yeah, it has 2 outside walls.

No worries.  I can't keep anyone straight either. 🙂

 

[regentrude]

42 minutes ago, TexasProud said:

But I am sorry, how is a 20 percent chance of a 20 percent chance a marginal risk????????    And there are LOTS of people like me who will eventually just ignore it.  They should save it for higher chance of stuff. 

I don't understand what your issue is. "Marginal" means small. 20% of 20% is quite small. That's exactly what marginal means. For higher chance they would use a different word.

[TexasProud]

3 minutes ago, regentrude said:

I don't understand what your issue is. "Marginal" means small. 20% of 20% is quite small. That's exactly what marginal means. For higher chance they would use a different word.

Because our local tv station our county emergency preparedness is posting be on the lookout stuff.  

[regentrude]

6 minutes ago, TexasProud said:

Because our local tv station our county emergency preparedness is posting be on the lookout stuff.  

That is their job.

[TexasProud]

3 minutes ago, regentrude said:

That is their job.

I understand.  But as you said, it is not that big a risk, so to make a HUGE deal about LOOK OUT FOR GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL and Tornadoes....again, it is a cry wolf situation.  I don't mind if they do that if the risk is 3 out of 5 or higher with a big chance of the storm hitting us.  But as I said, when I look at the future radar, there is no rain coming. 

[TexasProud]

I've got way too many things to worry about and I need to be able to put this aside and not worry about it.   That is my point. 

[marbel]

1 minute ago, TexasProud said:

I've got way too many things to worry about and I need to be able to put this aside and not worry about it.   That is my point. 

Then set it aside and get on with your life. 

I don't know, maybe it's from growing up with earthquakes (never any warning) but I don't think you can sit around waiting for weather to happen.

Weather forecasters are in a damned if they do/don't situation. Either they warn too much, or they don't warn enough. Either way, someone's always upset. 

[TexasProud]

Just now, marbel said:

Then set it aside and get on with your life. 

I don't know, maybe it's from growing up with earthquakes (never any warning) but I don't think you can sit around waiting for weather to happen.

Weather forecasters are in a damned if they do/don't situation. Either they warn too much, or they don't warn enough. Either way, someone's always upset. 

Ok, thank you.  Then I won't worry about it.  I just needed someone to tell me it is ok. 

[marbel]

10 minutes ago, TexasProud said:

Ok, thank you.  Then I won't worry about it.  I just needed someone to tell me it is ok. 

Uh, why? And why would you take my advice anyway?  

(Note to self: don't post anything that might be construed as giving advice/permission in future)

[TexasProud]

Uggh.  Well never mind. The weather service just revised us to 95 percent chance of severe weather including super cell tornados. I guess it won't get here until after midnight.  Won't be sleeping much tonight. 

[TexasProud]

Just in case anyone else is in the area:
 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0705.html?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR2gmgGApXGqHRPmtbWcvkt4ldkthmDJim8MVV9yVGHBl8DksYsOedW5mCY_aem_AYapLadoFu-ZkydTRiioSBs5FWy0YRP2JA2Y9isQUqRVgjRigBcEIt3PY8F_m543hCywJbTgJRQSjxq-of6FBUPA

[prairiewindmomma]

I grew up in tornado country. One of the ways I coped was just acknowledging that if a super cell got me, it got me. Like, there’s not much you can do if an EF4 or 5 mows you down.

The watches are helpful if you have choices about your day—parking in your garage versus out in the driveway to avoid hail damage, or staying close to town versus going out on the lake. You might delay coming home on your errand run if a storm is blowing through town and you’re out aways. You know your baseball game might get canceled or you’ll be holding down tent straps at an outdoor wedding if stuff happens in the evening.
 

But, really, aside from finding a biking helmet and your extra cell phone battery, and maybe choosing to sleep downstairs rather than up, no amount of worrying is going to fix a tornado problem. Either you will be in its path or you wont. No sense in being hypervigilant about it (but I acknowledge hypervigilance is another trauma thing and this may not be under your control right now).

[freesia]

3 hours ago, Carrie12345 said:

We’ve seen what happens when a low ish-percentile area isn’t prepared for slight shifts that cause major change. There IS a wolf. And there’s a good chance it will stay away. But it has a mind of its own. 

Exactly. My town had a tornado touch down a couple of weeks ago. Even though we had a watch, there was hardly a chance of anything for most of the day. But then, suddenly the alert changed to—there is a large and dangerous tornado heading your way. Your life is in danger. That was sobering. Fortunately it just touched down twice at level O with little damage and no loss of life. It’s the first time since 1975 or something. So lots of crying wolf—but a real chance!

[TexasProud]

Just now, freesia said:

Exactly. My town had a tornado touch down a couple of weeks ago. Even though we had a watch, there was hardly a chance of anything for most of the day. But then, suddenly the alert changed to—there is a large and dangerous tornado heading your way. Your life is in danger. That was sobering. Fortunately it just touched down twice at level O with little damage and no loss of life. It’s the first time since 1975 or something. So lots of crying wolf—but a real chance!

BUT I CANNOT LIVE WITH THAT HIGH LEVEL OF ALERT ALL THE TIME

[lovinmyboys]

Do you have tornado sirens where you live? When we lived in places with tornados, I had a plan for what we would do if the sirens went off. When I knew we were under a watch/chance of bad weather, I would just note it and carry on with my day knowing if the sirens went off, then I would go to our tornado safe place. Typically the sirens give you enough time to get to safety.

[freesia]

Well I just assume we won’t get hit in general.  I keep valuables/papers in the basement. I don’t ignore when they say to go in the basement. To me the chance is lower than a car accident tbh. 
 

Do you have a cellar?  There’s no reason you need to live at a high level of alert bc other than going to the cellar there’s nothing to be alert to do. 

Edited May 8 by freesia

[freesia]

Just now, lovinmyboys said:

Do you have tornado sirens where you live? When we lived in places with tornados, I had a plan for what we would do if the sirens went off. When I knew we were under a watch/chance of bad weather, I would just note it and carry on with my day knowing if the sirens went off, then I would go to our tornado safe place. Typically the sirens give you enough time to get to safety.

And now there are phone alerts.

[TexasProud]

We live rurally, so no sirens.

[freesia]

Just now, TexasProud said:

We live rurally, so no sirens.

Tbh the sirens are hard to distinguish from the wind your cell phone should give you a loud alert. 

[TexasProud]

Just now, freesia said:

Tbh the sirens are hard to distinguish from the wind your cell phone should give you a loud alert. 

I will have to see.  How do you get alerts like that on your phone without them going off for the nearest city ( which isn't all that near).  How do they know where YOU are. 

[marbel]

I'm not being snarky when I say... if the weather in your area is causing you so much anxiety that you can't function, maybe it is time to move. Find a place where the incidence of tornados/other extreme weather is very low and discuss moving. Sell the farm, downsize, move someplace you will feel more comfortable. I know you said your husband loves where you live but... he's had his time there, maybe it's your turn to live in a place you love and can relax. You can travel to Kenya etc from anyplace.

Edited May 8 by marbel

[TexasProud]

Just now, marbel said:

I'm not being snarky when I say... if the weather in your area is causing you so much anxiety that you can't function, maybe it is time to move. Find a place where the incidence of tornados/other extreme weather is very low and discuss moving. Sell the farm, downsize, move someplace you will feel more comfortable. I know you said your husband loves where you live but... he's had his time there, maybe it's your turn to live in a place you love and can feel more comfortable. 

That will never happen. Besides with climate change no where is safe from some kind of weather event.  Our house can't flood here and I don't know where you go now that doesn't have tornadoes.  Our entire family is in Texas, so we are not moving from here. Well, two of our kids don't live here, but things are so fluid for them that we will not move to be near them. But his mom and siblings are in Houston. 

[TexasProud]

And most of the time I am not this anxious about it.  I am just in a tailspin right now as it feels like everything is caving in, so it is the straw that broke the camel's back today.  Most days, I am not this bad unless they do super cells like they are saying today.  But that has been rare. 

[lovinmyboys]

Just now, TexasProud said:

And most of the time I am not this anxious about it.  I am just in a tailspin right now as it feels like everything is caving in, so it is the straw that broke the camel's back today.  Most days, I am not this bad unless they do super cells like they are saying today.  But that has been rare. 

I have anxious days sometimes too. Do you have to go anywhere today? Can you just stay close to home?

Would a weather radio work? I know they are still recommended even with phone alerts. 

[TexasProud]

Our weather radio is in the RV.. LOL.  No I am here.... just spending hours watching radar.......  

[freesia]

12 minutes ago, TexasProud said:

I will have to see.  How do you get alerts like that on your phone without them going off for the nearest city ( which isn't all that near).  How do they know where YOU are. 

GPS? Do you have something like weather bug on your phone? I think it’s the same people who send out the tornado watches who do the phone alerts

[prairiewindmomma]

9 minutes ago, TexasProud said:

I will have to see.  How do you get alerts like that on your phone without them going off for the nearest city ( which isn't all that near).  How do they know where YOU are. 

For me, in my phone settings:

Settings: weather: location on

settings: weather: cellular data on

settings: weather: notifications: always deliver immediately critical alerts, persistent banner style, sounds on, badges on,

Then scroll down to weather notifications settings at the bottom of that window and turn on that.

My area also offers everbridge emergency notifications. (It did in TX too.) Sign up for everbridge with your home address.

[marbel]

Just now, TexasProud said:

Our weather radio is in the RV.. LOL.  No I am here.... just spending hours watching radar.......  

How about setting yourself a timer to check the radar every... I don't know, hour, 2 hours? And then go do what you need/want to do? 

Or, read a book/listen to an audio book while you keep the radar close at hand to glance at, if you really can't tear yourself away? Watch a movie? 

[annandatje]

3 hours ago, TexasProud said:

But I am sorry, how is a 20 percent chance of a 20 percent chance a marginal risk????????    And there are LOTS of people like me who will eventually just ignore it.  They should save it for higher chance of stuff. 

Here is how:  .2 * .2 = .04 which is a 4% chance.  If I made computational error, please correct me, board members.

Of course, this does not factor in other weather attributes that could affect probability of severe weather.  

Edited May 8 by annandatje

[TexasProud]

5 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

For me, in my phone settings:

Settings: weather: location on

settings: weather: cellular data on

settings: weather: notifications: always deliver immediately critical alerts, persistent banner style, sounds on, badges on,

Then scroll down to weather notifications settings at the bottom of that window and turn on that.

My area also offers everbridge emergency notifications. (It did in TX too.) Sign up for everbridge with your home address.

So do you have a weather app on your phone then?  I don't. 

[prairiewindmomma]

My iphone has it built in.

[prairiewindmomma]

Are you android? Let me poll my kids what they do. I know they have everbridge, but I think they also do something else.

[TexasProud]

3 minutes ago, annandatje said:

Here is how:  .2 * .2 = .04 which is a 4% chance.  If I made computational error, please correct me, board members.

Of course, this does not factor in other weather attributes that could affect probability of severe weather.  

Yeah, that is the way I was looking at it and that was true for today.  Sounds like it is shifting for tonight.  We are now under a tornado watch. On the weather channel we are completely in red now