This year's flu shot's efficacy?

[stephanier.1765]

Has anyone heard how well this year's vaccine is doing? There are years where the predict the wrong strain so the vaccine doesn't do well and this year the flu hospitalizations are way up. Is that why? Or is this strain especially virulent? Or are people just not getting the vaccine?

[mommyoffive]

I think part of it is that the flu season hit earlier this year.  But also the last 2 years there have been covid mitigation rules in place most places that protected people against the flu too.

Fingers crossed over here as ds has been partnering with a girl all week at ballet for the upcoming show and she puked in class yesterday.    He at least was wearing a Kn95 (she was maskless) and has a recent covid booster and flu shot.  Before our old pediatrician would say don't get your flu shot until after Thanksgiving, but everything I was hearing was get the shot early.  I got everyone done in October.  It is going to be a long winter.

What you should know about getting a flu vaccine this year, according to an expert (msn.com)

How Effective is the Flu Shot This Year? Here's When We'll Know (healthline.com)

With the potential for virus ‘mismatch’, how long will it be before we know if this year’s shot is effective against the more prevalent flu types?

Unfortunately, it might still be a couple of months before experts have a better understanding.

In recent years, the flu shot has provided around 43% protection against disease. Although year-to-year that has ranged widely from 60% in the 2010-2011 flu season to 19% in the 2014-2015 flu season

This year flu cases are rising, but the peak of the season is yet to begin. And it’s not until more people become sick that experts can identify the most common strains and see how these line up against those used for the shot.

For instance, it wasn’t until mid-December of the 2021 flu season that researchers discovered the vaccine strains and circulating flu viruses didn’t fully align. However, because the flu shot is created to work against more than one strain, they stated that it still offered a level of protection.

As the flu season unfolds, data is continuously collected to shed light on the bigger picture. “Estimates for the 2022-23 flu season will continue to update through the rest of the year,” stated Boden-Albala. After this, “the CDC will produce a report on vaccine effectiveness.”

Experts say the flu shot can also help lessen symptoms for people who end up developing the disease.

For instance, the CDC notedTrusted Source that, in Chile, where the flu season began in January, the primary strain circulating was a type of influenza A(H3N2) virus. The virus also started spreading earlier in the year than usual and resulted in more hospitalizations than during the 2020-21 flu season.

However, “the reliability of this approach is debatable,” Matt Weissenbach, DrPH, senior director of clinical affairs at Wolters Kluwer Health, shared with Healthline.

This is primarily because it doesn’t take into consideration “confounding variables and limitations, such as missing data or external factors that couldn’t be controlled.”

That said, Weissenbach continued, “it’s still a worthwhile exercise when examining projections for overall incidence, timing, and season duration.”

As mentioned, the flu season in Chile began earlier than usual — and Weissenbach believes we may see a similar pattern in the US.

“We’re already seeing early season upticks in influenza transmission in some regions,” he stated. “It’s quite possible that we’ll see continued increases in early activity this season, as was noted in many of the Southern Hemisphere countries.”

 

Boden-Albala shared that epidemiologists have predicted the upcoming flu season might be ‘bad’. This is partly because one of the main strains expected to circulate is linked to more severe symptoms.

But another reason more people could be impacted? The after-effects of pandemic-related measures, such as mask-wearing, social distancing, and staying at home.

“Community mitigation measures implemented throughout the pandemic are thought to have influenced influenza virus transmission to some degree,” stated Weissenbach.

Furthermore, Boden-Albala explained, these actions “have limited [our] exposure in the last few years to flu.” As such, “it’s expected that flu may be worse because of lower levels of circulating antibodies.”

 

Edited November 13, 2022 by mommyoffive

[Corraleno]

Seems to be a good match this year, although unfortunately uptake is quite low. This was published last week:

"Current evidence suggests that the influenza vaccine for this year comprises influenza A(H3N2) viruses that are genetically and antigenically similar to currently circulating strains, thus indicating that these vaccines should offer sufficient protection against severe disease and/or infection. An increasing number of influenza A(H1N1) viruses, which are also included in the yearly influenza vaccine, have also been reported nationally."

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20221106/Influenza-hospitalizations-at-highest-level-in-ten-years-predicting-a-severe-US-flu-season.aspx

 

 

Edited November 13, 2022 by Corraleno

[TexasProud]

I also wonder, have no clue if anyone has done any studies or not ( though if they did I wouldn't be able to understand them anyway) if the immunity is strengthened by repeated shots.  I haven't gotten the flu since I started getting flu shots well over 20 years ago.  Just wonder if my body has pretty good defenses after all of the vaccines.  I plan to get one Covid shot and one flu shot every year from now on. Masks, no. 

[KSera]

3 hours ago, TexasProud said:

I also wonder, have no clue if anyone has done any studies or not ( though if they did I wouldn't be able to understand them anyway) if the immunity is strengthened by repeated shots.

Unfortunately, there have been several studies indicating the opposite--a flu shot seems to work better on average for people who did not have a shot the previous season. I used to bounce back and forth getting them and not depending on the flu season in part for that reason (wanting to "save it" for the years the flu was bad), but then switched to figuring some protection each year was better than good protection some years and no protection other years.

[Dianthus]

I tested positive for covid on Nov 4th and was pretty sick and finally feeling better though have quite a bit of residual congestion and cough. My energy is much better. I feel like this is my usual prolonged sinus clogging. How soon can I get my flut shot? Now because I'm feeling ok?

[vonfirmath]

8 hours ago, stephanier.1765 said:

Has anyone heard how well this year's vaccine is doing? There are years where the predict the wrong strain so the vaccine doesn't do well and this year the flu hospitalizations are way up. Is that why? Or is this strain especially virulent? Or are people just not getting the vaccine?

We have had trouble getting the flu shot. Our doctor's office has not had appointments when I've tried. I signed up for Walgreens and got there and they didn't have the kids vaccine.

 

[stephanier.1765]

6 minutes ago, vonfirmath said:

We have had trouble getting the flu shot. Our doctor's office has not had appointments when I've tried. I signed up for Walgreens and got there and they didn't have the kids vaccine.

 

We had good luck with Publix, if you have one of those.

[Corraleno]

I was able to find appointments for the 65+ shot, but when I tried to find a regular shot for DD, I was only seeing appointments that were 30 miles and/or 3-4 weeks away. I tried CVS, Walgreens, WalMart, Costco, Kroger, and RIteAid. Rite Aid was booking appointments for late December and January! I started calling the doctor's office asking about cancellations and eventually managed to score her a same-day appointment, but she had to leave work in the middle of the day to go get it. And yet I had no trouble at all getting DS a quick appointment within walking distance of his apartment in another state.

Edited November 14, 2022 by Corraleno

[TravelingChris]

I haven\t gotten the flu shot yet because I got the flu in early October, very soon after I came back from Hawaii.  I normally get it in October and was planning to get it the following week.  Now I will probably get it next week.

[Lawyer&Mom]

It was a huge hassle to get a flu shot this year.  Our local clinic stopped doing its annual walk-in clinic, and all the pharmacies were booked out at least a month.  I managed to stumble across a pharmacy that was randomly doing walk-ins that day, usually they are too understaffed.  I know everyone in the healthcare system is stretched thin, but I’m doing this to try to keep our ER unclogged this winter.  Why does it have to be so hard!?!  I can’t imagine what it is like for people who aren’t hell-bent on getting a shot.  No wonder uptake is low. 

[EmilyGF]

The years I've gotten the flu, I've always gotten it late March/early April. I've had really bad cases where the doctor has chided me for not getting a shot, even when I did. So, I'm waiting until the end of this month to get the shot so that the immunity doesn't wear off as much by spring.

On TWIV, they were saying the shot seemed to be about 50% effective in the southern hemisphere this year. It isn't great, but there isn't another option.

Emily

[ScoutTN]

No trouble getting a flu vax at a pharmacy here. We all got it a bit early since flu has already hit hard here. My doc said they are predicting and earlier than normal peak this year, based on data from the southern hemisphere. 

Edited November 14, 2022 by ScoutTN

[Dmmetler]

3 hours ago, EmilyGF said:

The years I've gotten the flu, I've always gotten it late March/early April. I've had really bad cases where the doctor has chided me for not getting a shot, even when I did. So, I'm waiting until the end of this month to get the shot so that the immunity doesn't wear off as much by spring.

On TWIV, they were saying the shot seemed to be about 50% effective in the southern hemisphere this year. It isn't great, but there isn't another option.

Emily

What my immunologist has recommended is to get one in late Sept/early Oct, and one in January. That way I'm protected all the way through.  I got it with my bivalent booster :). 

[kbutton]

The only problem we had getting the flu shot is that our teen couldn’t get it at the particular pharmacy (no kids), so he had to go to Little Clinic and that the pharmacy computer was sooo slooow that day.