95% of jobs growth in next decade make under 30K?

[Tabrett]

I watched this video yesterday from CBS Money Watch. It is only 1:48 minutes long.

 

Where the Jobs Are Video

 

It states that 95% of new jobs in the next decade are going to be unskilled service jobs that pay under 30K a year.

 

Anyone else bothered by this?

 

And how are they even going to have new service jobs if people are paid is so little? People are only going to buy what they absolutely need which will cause more service oriented job loss.

 

This is very scary.

 

What are all the new college grades going to be doing if only 5% of new jobs require education? How are they going to pay off college loans?

 

Is America going to become a welfare state?

Edited December 1, 2010 by Tabrett

[jld]

I didn't watch the video, but I certainly share your concerns. And what I find so sad is that it wouldn't have to be this way. But as long as voters are passive and uninformed (or misinformed), and as long as people vote based on prejudice and fear, rather than facts and a sense that we are all in this together, rich and middle class and poor alike, we may well face this sort of future.

 

It's not what many of us want for America, but it takes a majority to be concerned and to change things.

[Renee in NC]

America isn't going to become a welfare state because there won't be enough tax base to pay for welfare for all those people.:tongue_smilie: The American economy is not sustainable the way it is. We are not exporting near as much as we are importing. A service-based economy won't work long-term for the exact reasons you state - if most people are making low wages, then who is buying things?

 

And, for the record, *all* of those jobs mentioned - retail clerk, home health aid, and food service workers - make less than $20K here. Most are in the $7.50-8.00 an hour range.

[JenC3]

Until the American people vote for REAL TERM LIMITS we will only have a "few" people in DC who willing to vote against special interest groups. When I say term limits I am specifically talking about the ability to be reelected for DECADES!

 

I believe real change might begin at the local level, but people are actually bot very interested in their local officials most of the time:(

[ChandlerMom]

The following is my personal political opinion on the subject:

 

:rant:

 

....back to our regularly scheduled programming....

Edited December 1, 2010 by ChandlerMom

[Mejane]

People are starting to live much less expensive lifestyles to go along with the downswing in earnings. Obviously $30K is not much, but if you don't have the huge house, Hummer, expensive toys and vacations, you can live on much less. It's all part of the general trend.

 

It is disturbing that those jobs are unskilled and low-paying, but there are still good jobs to be had with proper training - healthcare, finance and computer services being a few fields that pay upwards of $50K.

[NoPlaceLikeHome]

I would like our government to do more to keep manufacturing here as well as invest in technology, alternative energy etc. which would help create jobs. I think it is vital for the security of our country that we decide that we need manufacturing, farming, technology, and alternative energy here. I am afraid other countries who are investing tons in alternative energy and manufacturing are going to leave us in the dust such as China. I am glad that we saved car manufacturing and that soon GM will be on its own 2 feet again:001_smile: I do think our government needs to do more for our security and for jobs.

[cathmom]

Until the American people vote for REAL TERM LIMITS we will only have a "few" people in DC who willing to vote against special interest groups. When I say term limits I am specifically talking about the ability to be reelected for DECADES!

 

I believe real change might begin at the local level, but people are actually bot very interested in their local officials most of the time:(

 

I voted against my congressman both in the primary and in the election because he is about 80 years old and has been in Congress for decades. However, he still rolled to a win with 75% of the vote. :tongue_smilie: People are for term limits in general, but when it comes to their guy who has been in office for ages, they just vote for him anyway.

 

So I agree with you.

[6packofun]

I think it is vital for the security of our country that we decide that we need manufacturing, farming, technology, and alternative energy here.

 

These are the exact areas that I feel are crucial as well. :iagree:

[Tabrett]

I would like our government to do more to keep manufacturing here as well as invest in technology, alternative energy etc. which would help create jobs. I think it is vital for the security of our country that we decide that we need manufacturing, farming, technology, and alternative energy here. I am afraid other countries who are investing tons in alternative energy and manufacturing are going to leave us in the dust such as China. I am glad that we saved car manufacturing and that soon GM will be on its own 2 feet again:001_smile: I do think our government needs to do more for our security and for jobs.

 

How will investing in technology help when all the tech jobs are outsourced?

 

Also how will alternative energy help?

 

:bigear:

 

I am all for alternative energy, but it needs to be affordable for the average person. Unfortunately, I believe there are many good alternative energy sources that would be great for individuals, but companies can't figure out a way to make money monthly so they refuse to mass produce the systems.

 

My dad actually SAW with is own eye a car that ran on compressed air in the 80's at a State Fair in NC. The man that invented could run any gas machine on his compressed air engine. His invention was bought for a huge amount of money by a big gas company and wan never heard or seen again.

 

I truly think there are many from of free energy that are not profitable so they are shelved.

[DarlaS]

 

My dad actually SAW with is own eye a car that ran on compressed air in the 80's at a State Fair in NC. The man that invented could run any gas machine on his compressed air engine. His invention was bought for a huge amount of money by a big gas company and wan never heard or seen again.

 

I truly think there are many from of free energy that are not profitable so they are shelved.

 

That's the first I've heard of this one (and I have the same suspicions you do), but how was the air compressed? I have an air compressor, but it needs a power source to compress the air.

 

I always wondered about that car that ran on water. A man converted a Ford Escort to run on water (It separated out the hydrogen.). That was just a couple years ago and it even made the news. Haven't heard about it since. (I can imagine something like that could be very dangerous to actually drive though...)

[NoPlaceLikeHome]

How will investing in technology help when all the tech jobs are outsourced?

 

Also how will alternative energy help?

 

:bigear:

 

I am all for alternative energy, but it needs to be affordable for the average person. Unfortunately, I believe there are many good alternative energy sources that would be great for individuals, but companies can't figure out a way to make money monthly so they refuse to mass produce the systems.

 

My dad actually SAW with is own eye a car that ran on compressed air in the 80's at a State Fair in NC. The man that invented could run any gas machine on his compressed air engine. His invention was bought for a huge amount of money by a big gas company and wan never heard or seen again.

 

I truly think there are many from of free energy that are not profitable so they are shelved.

I have heard that China is investing in alternative energy and technology like crazy and doing so creates jobs IMHO. I think we should find ways to keep the jobs here with incentives, etc. I will ask dh for links:) Ultimately, I think it is a security risk to allow all of our jobs be outsourced.

Edited December 2, 2010 by priscilla

[K-FL]

I have heard that China is investing in alternative energy and technology like crazy and doing so creates jobs IMHO. I think we should find ways to keep the jobs here with incentives, etc. I will ask dh for links:) Ultimately, I think it is a security risk to allow all of our jobs be outsourced.

 

China is manufacturing many of the wind generators & planning on nuclear reactors as well. We'll just switch our dependence from OPEC to China (one enemy to another, IMO.) The oil restriction continuation announced yesterday continues the trend. No US workers making good wages, but we buy from the ChiComs or anyone else from drilling just a few miles further away off Cuba & Mexico.

 

Problem with much of the "alternative" energy is that it needs petroleum products to manufacture, like plastics and lubricants. Plus, things like wind & solar are not constantly reliable & take lots of acreage to produce an inferior product. All those electric cars should really be called coal-powered since the majority of our electricity here in the US is from coal-powered plants, BUT the administration has cut coal production, of course that means fewer well paying jobs too.

 

:rant:

[regentrude]

As long as the US have to import half their scientists and engineers because no qualified Americans can be found , I am not worried. A student who takes on a rigorous course of study to become a scientist or engineer will have an easy time to find a job. Alas, there may be less demand for college graduates with no specialized and marketable skills.

[jld]

As long as the US have to import half their scientists and engineers because no qualified Americans can be found , I am not worried. A student who takes on a rigorous course of study to become a scientist or engineer will have an easy time to find a job. Alas, there may be less demand for college graduates with no specialized and marketable skills.

 

Regentrude, do you think anyone can become a scientist or engineer? I really wonder. Is it just a question or hard work, or is natural talent required? I would really appreciate hearing your opinion on this.

[NoPlaceLikeHome]

As long as the US have to import half their scientists and engineers because no qualified Americans can be found , I am not worried. A student who takes on a rigorous course of study to become a scientist or engineer will have an easy time to find a job. Alas, there may be less demand for college graduates with no specialized and marketable skills.

 

I have heard of companies here that deliberately pass over very qualified US applicants so that they can pay imported workers a lot less:glare:

 

I do agree though that our schools are often a mess when it comes to adequately preparing students for college and for science and math:(

[Renee in NC]

As long as the US have to import half their scientists and engineers because no qualified Americans can be found , I am not worried. A student who takes on a rigorous course of study to become a scientist or engineer will have an easy time to find a job. Alas, there may be less demand for college graduates with no specialized and marketable skills.

 

Generally the people who are training/taking retail, home health care, and food service jobs are not people who could complete a rigorous course of study and become a scientist or engineer. I have high hopes for my dc, but I am also realistic enough to know that for some of them it isn't likely. Trades don't pay much anymore (compared to the past) and the decent paying "blue collar" jobs are gone. As we move towards the high school years, we will have to figure out what they *can* do and hope that it isn't a $9 an hour job.

 

My oldest has taken a rigorous course of study and he is working hard. That may not be enough for him to be an engineer or a scientist.

[Renee in NC]

I have heard of companies here that deliberately pass over very qualified US applicants so that they can pay imported workers a lot less:glare:

 

 

 

Doesn't surprise me at all. The real solution to the salary problem is that Americans are going to have to live on a lot less.;)

[mom31257]

As long as the US have to import half their scientists and engineers because no qualified Americans can be found , I am not worried. A student who takes on a rigorous course of study to become a scientist or engineer will have an easy time to find a job. Alas, there may be less demand for college graduates with no specialized and marketable skills.

 

Well, I believe we are having to import because of the current education system in America. My dh is a public school teacher. He is doing gifted certification classes right now. So far it has been about how to get more minorities into the gifted programs than how to actually help gifted kids achieve even more.

 

There is such a politically correct environment in the system that focuses more on equality of the students than actually letting the really smart kids take off and excel. What we will end up with is a whole nation of students that are mediocre to attain this level of equality.

 

There are higher level courses, but when an AP student tells you that they don't even have to study or do homework and getting A's, then even those classes can't be rigorous. To me rigour means you should challenge even more someone who is already good at something.

[regentrude]

I have heard of companies here that deliberately pass over very qualified US applicants so that they can pay imported workers a lot less:glare:

 

I doubt that. In order to obtain work permit, visa and residency status for a foreigner, the company (or university) has to document the application process and has to PROVE to the immigration services that no qualified US applicant could be found. Add to this the cost of obtaining visa and the lengthy and uncertain process (you don't know whether you get your employee into the country in three months or two years!), I do not think that would be cost effective for a company.

[laughing lioness]

We are clearly in a social shift. The American culture is one of entitlement. We want what we want when we want it with little discomfort. Lots of other cultures in the world are willing to work hard to get what they want and are aware that discomfort is part of the deal. I think studying hard and a rigorous course of study is important but so is training our kids to realize that life is not fair and sometimes hard work and rigorous study isn't a guarantee that will ensure a certain life-style.

Again, I recommend reading the Post American World and checking out the 2 Million Minutes Website.

[NoPlaceLikeHome]

I doubt that. In order to obtain work permit, visa and residency status for a foreigner, the company (or university) has to document the application process and has to PROVE to the immigration services that no qualified US applicant could be found. Add to this the cost of obtaining visa and the lengthy and uncertain process (you don't know whether you get your employee into the country in three months or two years!), I do not think that would be cost effective for a company.

 

Check this out:

 

 

 

I saw an expose several years ago on this and it was quite convincing that there are easy ways around hiring US workers IMHO.

 

I do agree that Americans need a life-style re-adjustment. OTOH I think it is a shame and a disgrace that the middle class is disappearing and that the rich are getting significantly richer. Where is the trickle down and jobs from the historically low tax rates that we have had for the past decade? This has nothing to do with class envy since my dh and I are quite blessed and I strongly believe in capitalism but I also believe in fairness as well as hard work and frugality.

[Renee in NC]

We are clearly in a social shift. The American culture is one of entitlement. We want what we want when we want it with little discomfort. Lots of other cultures in the world are willing to work hard to get what they want and are aware that discomfort is part of the deal. I think studying hard and a rigorous course of study is important but so is training our kids to realize that life is not fair and sometimes hard work and rigorous study isn't a guarantee that will ensure a certain life-style.

Again, I recommend reading the Post American World and checking out the 2 Million Minutes Website.

 

This is so, so true. That's the American Way - work hard and you will get somewhere. Unfortunately, it doesn't take into account all the other people in the world who will work hard, too, but for much, much less.:lol:

 

Check this out:

 

 

 

I saw an expose several years ago on this and it was quite convincing that there are easy ways around hiring US workers IMHO.

 

I do agree that Americans need a life-style re-adjustment. OTOH I think it is a shame and a disgrace that the middle class is disappearing and that the rich are getting significantly richer. Where is the trickle down and jobs from the historically low tax rates that we have had for the past decade? This has nothing to do with class envy since my dh and I are quite blessed and I strongly believe in capitalism but I also believe in fairness as well as hard work and frugality.

 

This is true in the agricultural sector as well. The H1B visa allows ag businesses (which includes a whole range of companies - even landscapers) to bring workers in from other countries temporarily to work. They have to advertise, but rarely get American workers (pay is low and work is very hard.) In NC, there was some uproar a couple of years ago because American workers were being discouraged from applying. Why? The stereotype is that American citizens willing to work for low wages don't work hard, aren't reliable, and complain alot.:tongue_smilie: I don't know if it is based in reality or not, but it isn't much different. It all comes down to profit.

[Ali in OR]

From an engineering perspective:

 

I am someone who was able to get an engineering degree (i.e. had enough math skills), but my skills aren't strong enough to excel at it. Dh is one of those really smart guys who excels at it. He really should be an engineer. I got my master's in education after the engineering degree. I've been able to use both of my degrees. Teaching doesn't pay as well and is more stressful than engineering, but it does fit my interests and talents better.

 

I would only advise someone to go into engineering if they are like dh and can do it well. And love it. Frankly, many many engineering jobs are going overseas. He works in what was once an American company that is now a multinational company. They have locations all over the world. They have been shrinking their American workforce for years, but still hire engineers in other countries. Dh and his local peers who still have jobs are really the best at what they do. They solve problems that the cheaper engineers overseas can't. For now they have some job security in being able to do that. But many good people with good skills have been laid off from his company.

 

Also with engineering, you don't have as much freedom as to where to live. If you are in high-tech, you will probably be working for one of these large multinational companies. There is no owning your own business or (depending on your specialty) working for a small company. It is frustrating that our country is not making an effort to keep these skills in America. The decisions are getting made by companies who have a financial incentive (at least in the short term) in moving these jobs overseas. Doing the very difficult college work that is required to get an engineering degree is no longer a guarantee that you will have safe secure job opportunities when you graduate.

[NoPlaceLikeHome]

From an engineering perspective:

 

I am someone who was able to get an engineering degree (i.e. had enough math skills), but my skills aren't strong enough to excel at it. Dh is one of those really smart guys who excels at it. He really should be an engineer. I got my master's in education after the engineering degree. I've been able to use both of my degrees. Teaching doesn't pay as well and is more stressful than engineering, but it does fit my interests and talents better.

 

I would only advise someone to go into engineering if they are like dh and can do it well. And love it. Frankly, many many engineering jobs are going overseas. He works in what was once an American company that is now a multinational company. They have locations all over the world. They have been shrinking their American workforce for years, but still hire engineers in other countries. Dh and his local peers who still have jobs are really the best at what they do. They solve problems that the cheaper engineers overseas can't. For now they have some job security in being able to do that. But many good people with good skills have been laid off from his company.

 

Also with engineering, you don't have as much freedom as to where to live. If you are in high-tech, you will probably be working for one of these large multinational companies. There is no owning your own business or (depending on your specialty) working for a small company. It is frustrating that our country is not making an effort to keep these skills in America. The decisions are getting made by companies who have a financial incentive (at least in the short term) in moving these jobs overseas. Doing the very difficult college work that is required to get an engineering degree is no longer a guarantee that you will have safe secure job opportunities when you graduate.

 

:iagree: I think it should be harder to ship our jobs overseas since it is a security threat IMHO if we cannot do these things for ourselves. Will we be solely dependent upon China who is a potential enemy for all of needs? Will we lose the ability to do for ourselves as a country? I think our country needs to somehow protect our jobs and abilities IMHO.

[WeeBeaks]

As long as the US have to import half their scientists and engineers because no qualified Americans can be found , I am not worried. A student who takes on a rigorous course of study to become a scientist or engineer will have an easy time to find a job. Alas, there may be less demand for college graduates with no specialized and marketable skills.

 

I don't know if this has already been mentioned as I am still reading the thread (hopefully before the kids catch me - haha), but at least when I was in college (graduated 2002 as an adult), most science and engineering majors were all impacted, allowing no one in who wasn't straight from high school basically (so no transfers in), even though I had the grades and the prereqs satisfied. I WANTED an engineering degree but settled for Cognitive Science and Math instead. If we need engineers, we need to provide a way for them to get degrees too. That comes to my mind every time I hear of the lack of engineers available here. Plenty of room and encouragement though had I wanted to be an art history major (I had taken lots of those classes out of interest - nearly enough for a major).

[Mama Geek]

Without establishing trade embargoes or eliminating the minimum wage, the unions, corporate taxes, SS taxes, etc. Companies will continue to send work over seas.

 

Why would you hire some one here and pay a whole lot more for what you get when you can send the work to a place like China for a whole lot less?

 

My understanding is that it is cheaper for us to send raw materials to China, have them manufacture whatever said item is and then ship it back to the US, than for a company to try to manufacture things in the US.

 

We also do have a fairly large portion of society that has the lifelong entitlement attitude. My db is living with one of those types:glare:

[Mama Geek]

There are plenty of engineers in this country, there are not enough willing to work for as little as the people coming in on H1B visas. There is not much engineering work to be had right now.

[TechWife]

It states that 95% of new jobs in the next decade are going to be unskilled service jobs that pay under 30K a year.

 

 

This goes beyond outsourcing, education and debt. It encompasses how we think about work.

 

I am reading a book right now that has some insight on the "unskilled service jobs" that are becoming more common. It is Shop Class as Soulcraft: An Inquiry into the Value of Work by Matthew B. Crawford. It is a very interesting book on the value of the technical arts.

 

In this book, he discusses how jobs have been simplified to the point that no one has to think about anything to get the work done. This started with the time & motion studies that began early in the 20th century. As employers break tasks down into smaller and smaller pieces, the workers have to think less about their job & thus performed it more quickly than if they had a comprehensive task. No one becomes an expert at anything, and no one "masters their stuff." Even the automatic faucets make assumptions about the general public - some people forget to turn the water off, so we are going to take that decision away from them - one less thing for us to discipline our brains to do.

 

He also talks about how it takes a great deal of attention to master a technical craft - you must listen and problem solve until you get it right. In his business, it's a matter of life and death. Because things have been broken down into very basic training and decision trees, people aren't encouraged to master their craft, instead they are encouraged to follow the plan. If the plan fails, they are not responsible for the outcome, after all, they did what they were told to do. Employees have no investment in completing the process correctly nor do they have any personal responsibility for correcting the process should it be faulty, after all, the process doesn't belong to them, it belongs to the company.

 

The automated systems and processes that are implemented remove us from the decision making. The fewer decisions we make, the less we are going to be equipped with the problem solving skills that lead to the technical expertise needed to engage in solving a problem related to the technological arts.

 

It's a great book and has given me a great deal to ponder - they very idea that the mechanic who has spent thousands of hours at his craft is acquainted with the engine of my car more so than the people who manufactured the engine. All they know about it the one part they put in - they don't need to have the big picture. Knowing that the mechanic who goes to the manufacturer's training is being taught a process of elimination, rather than a skill of listening and paying attention to what the car owner says and what they themselves observe as they operate the vehicle is also very thought provoking.

 

It has made me look at the increasing demand for Nurse Practitioner's and Physician's Assistants in an entirely new light. While these folks are certainly helping us bring down health care costs, we cannot get away from the fact that they undergo less education and less training than the physicians that they are replacing. They are less skilled.

 

To take this back to the original post, the less skilled people make less money because they are less skilled - it is the lower level of skill needed to perform the oversimplified jobs that drives down wages.

[In The Great White North]

Quote:

Originally Posted by priscilla

I have heard of companies here that deliberately pass over very qualified US applicants so that they can pay imported workers a lot less:glare:

 

I doubt that. In order to obtain work permit, visa and residency status for a foreigner, the company (or university) has to document the application process and has to PROVE to the immigration services that no qualified US applicant could be found. Add to this the cost of obtaining visa and the lengthy and uncertain process (you don't know whether you get your employee into the country in three months or two years!), I do not think that would be cost effective for a company.

 

Visas only apply to people physically working in the US. The work can be done overseas and emailed here, which deprives an American engineer of a job (and America of another trained engineer) just as effectively as hiring a foreigner on a visa. And the cost of living (and therefore salary required) can be MUCH less than in the US.

[NoPlaceLikeHome]

Without establishing trade embargoes or eliminating the minimum wage, the unions, corporate taxes, SS taxes, etc. Companies will continue to send work over seas.

 

Why would you hire some one here and pay a whole lot more for what you get when you can send the work to a place like China for a whole lot less?

 

My understanding is that it is cheaper for us to send raw materials to China, have them manufacture whatever said item is and then ship it back to the US, than for a company to try to manufacture things in the US.

 

We also do have a fairly large portion of society that has the lifelong entitlement attitude. My db is living with one of those types:glare:

 

:iagree: But I also see this as a big security threat IMHO and therefore I think we should have strong incentives from our government to keep jobs here. What would we do if we ever went to war with China and lost all memory of how to make things? I think we would be in big trouble:(.

 

Also, allowing all of these jobs to go overseas hurts the very existence of the middle class. Soon we will be a banana republic with only the haves and the have-nots:(

[laughing lioness]

Will we be solely dependent upon China who is a potential enemy for all of needs? Will we lose the ability to do for ourselves as a country? .

 

According to Zakaria (Post American World) and Easterbrook (sonic Boom, Globalization at Mach Speed) the 3 big powers will be the U.S., China and India. It's not so much that we won't be the big dog on the block, it's that we'll be sharing the block.

Easterbrook says the shift is here, get used to it. Contract labor will be the norm, benefits won't. Job security is a thing of the past. I reviewed both books on my blog here and here.

[creekland]

Also with engineering, you don't have as much freedom as to where to live. If you are in high-tech, you will probably be working for one of these large multinational companies. There is no owning your own business or (depending on your specialty) working for a small company. It is frustrating that our country is not making an effort to keep these skills in America. The decisions are getting made by companies who have a financial incentive (at least in the short term) in moving these jobs overseas. Doing the very difficult college work that is required to get an engineering degree is no longer a guarantee that you will have safe secure job opportunities when you graduate.

 

This solely depends on which engineering one specializes in. Hubby is a Civil Engineer and he can pick anywhere to live as Civil Engineers are needed literally everywhere from rural to city. We picked every single place we've moved to including our current home. Granted, in this economy, work is much slower, but there is still some work out there.

 

And... hubby has owned his own small business for 11 years now. Many civil engineers work for small businesses or own their own.

 

Back in college he saw the "difference" looming ahead and switched from mechanical to civil. We're enjoying the freedom.

 

And yes... when he was looking for a new employee a few years back it was highly suggested to him that he employ someone in India instead for much less money (e-mailing back and forth). He didn't end up employing anyone - and in this economy - we're glad we made that decision or they'd have had to be laid off by now.

[Tabrett]

To take this back to the original post, the less skilled people make less money because they are less skilled - it is the lower level of skill needed to perform the oversimplified jobs that drives down wages.

 

I understand what you are saying, but I don't agree with this statement. I am starting to believe that our intelligence has replaced the need for human labor.

 

Let me give an example of what I am trying to say.

 

In the past we needed local musicians to play at all sorts of functions from aristocratic balls to peasant dances, weddings, churches, ect... Musicians needed to be local and skilled. With the advancement of technology we don't need skilled musicians anymore. All we need now is a recording of the best in the WORLD. We plop it onto our iPods and plug it into speakers and we can have any type of music and any volume necessary.

We don't need as many skilled musicians. I know there are still musicians who play at special functions, but most do it as a side job, not as their main job like musicians did in the past.

 

What about engineers? The more skilled engineers our WORLD produces the lower the pay becomes.

 

I think our intelligence has replaced "skill" to the point we don't NEED skilled workers anymore. We only need one person to invent or streamline a product, let it be automated in production then have unskilled workers sell the product.

 

Here is a list of skill that were needed locally for THOUSANDS of years:

 

Tailors

Bakers

Carpenters

Furniture makers

Farmers

Weavers

Musicians

People who work with metal

 

We don't need these skilled people anymore. It has all been automated. All we need are people who can run the machine and push the button, pack a box, drive a truck and run an automated cash register. And a few skilled people who can fix the machines.

 

Not everybody is mathematically or scientifically inclined. But that doesn't mean that they wouldn't have been excellent at a trade.

 

Our intelligence is removing the need for human labor, thus removing jobs for people with and without skill.

[TravelingChris]

That was a misreading of the report. It isn't that 95% of jobs will be under 30K but that 95% of jobs will be in the service industry. That includes what is highlighted as good paying jobs that will have demand like RN, software engineer, and higher ed teachers.

 

I think that well over 65% of current jobs are service industry and of course, that will only increase. Manufacturing is done more and more by robots.

[creekland]

Well, I believe we are having to import because of the current education system in America...

 

There is such a politically correct environment in the system that focuses more on equality of the students than actually letting the really smart kids take off and excel. What we will end up with is a whole nation of students that are mediocre to attain this level of equality.

 

This is incredibly true in the high school where I work too. It's sad. I work with low level students and "top" level students. The "top" average keeps decreasing in knowledge each year, but not in numbers of students there. Few students even WANT to learn. The mindset is to "get by."

 

When my oldest started middle school we went in to ask the principal what there was for him (academically talented student) at the school. We were flat out told:

 

"Schools are not there to educate the academically talented students. They will do well anyway no matter what. Schools are there to educate the "average" student, and around here, the average student works at ____, joins the military, or goes to community college."

 

We pulled our son out a couple of years after that as we saw he was right. We probably should have done it sooner. His younger brother (pulled out after 6th grade) has done even better than oldest, and oldest wasn't a slouch academically). Sadly, my youngest is back in ps - by his wish - due to other issues going on in his life. Fortunately, he's been homeschooled long enough to see the difference in his attitude toward learning and the "masses." He's rather enjoying being the "smart nerd" right now, but even with that, we're still supplementing his education because the "smart students" won't do well no matter what! They actually do need the EDUCATION to do well. My son has had students ridicule him for getting A's asking him why he puts so much time into it. They've said a C is just fine and they wouldn't want A's... I worry about our country.

 

The super talented kids the last couple of years have been Asian exchange students. Out of our high school I can only think of one student that might be on par with them - their average. Asian students here are DRIVEN to learn even with the language barrier. We used to get some talented European exchange students, but I haven't even seen one of those in a while. (We still have exchange students from Europe, but their knowledge, ability, and desire matches our students sadly.)

 

The US will keep educating the world's best (in colleges) as many send their students here, but I fear we won't even keep pace with India and China in the near future.

 

And it's not "just" engineers and physicists though Asian kids head that way or medical due to $$. They are equally as driven to learn other subjects. Our kids seldom are, at least, not in my high school.

[Renee in NC]

That was a misreading of the report. It isn't that 95% of jobs will be under 30K but that 95% of jobs will be in the service industry. That includes what is highlighted as good paying jobs that will have demand like RN, software engineer, and higher ed teachers.

 

I think that well over 65% of current jobs are service industry and of course, that will only increase. Manufacturing is done more and more by robots.

 

I think that you will see the same downward pressure in those job areas as well. Nursing assistants will do more and more of the work that RN's do, more graduate students to do the higher ed teaching (as more and more people go to grad school because it will be the new BA), and software engineers? A bunch of those jobs are already going overseas now.

 

I think it will be as someone else said elsewhere in the thread - globalization over time will lower our standard of living and increase other countries' standard of living until it all levels out. There will be an "elite" that will hold most of the wealth, but most everyone will be "average."

[TechWife]

OTOH I think it is a shame and a disgrace that the middle class is disappearing and that the rich are getting significantly richer...This has nothing to do with class envy since my dh and I are quite blessed and I strongly believe in capitalism but I also believe in fairness as well as hard work and frugality.

 

What is the problem with rich people getting richer? I have never understood this.

 

How are you defining fairness? Is it fair that some people in our country pay no income tax while others pay 40% of their wages to the government?

[Renee in NC]

What is the problem with rich people getting richer? I have never understood this.

 

How are you defining fairness? Is it fair that some people in our country pay no income tax while others pay 40% of their wages to the government?

 

Nothing wrong with the rich getting richer at all. I'd like to be rich myself!;) It just seems to be a fact of life. I do think that some of this is going to backfire in the future, though. When the only motive is profit at whatever cost, the economy actually does suffer. I think we have seen evidence of that over the past couple of years.

 

As for tax rates, the highest 1% (over $250K) has an effective tax rate of 24.7% for 2011, which returns it to 2001 levels. The lowest quintiles rate is -3.2%. Add social security/medicare in and the rates are 30.2% and 4.45%, respectively (factored on $250K - as the income goes up, the rate actually goes down due to the ss wage base.) Our tax system if progressive and has been since the start. Sales taxes are regressive and property taxes seem to be neutral (because they are based on assets, not income.)

[TechWife]

I am starting to believe that our intelligence has replaced the need for human labor.

 

 

But is has not. For example, unless people can find a way to be smarter than the laws of physical science, evaporation and friction will always occur. This means that the oil in your car will always need to be checked and changed.

 

We don't need as many skilled musicians. I know there are still musicians who play at special functions, but most do it as a side job, not as their main job like musicians did in the past.

I would rephrase this to be that we don't want skilled musicians at the local level. Because we are used to getting music on demand, we don't see a need to pay someone to provide live music for us. We don't value the craft that a local musician has.

What about engineers? The more skilled engineers our WORLD produces the lower the pay becomes.

This follows a supply/demand economic model. I've never seen statistics that back this up in the engineering field. Do you have some you can share with me? (I'm getting ready to teach a class on career exploration in our co-op & info. like this would be helpful).

 

I think our intelligence has replaced "skill" to the point we don't NEED skilled workers anymore. We only need one person to invent or streamline a product, let it be automated in production then have unskilled workers sell the product.

The process you are describing does exist, but it is satisfactory only as long as the culture maintains it's "throw away" mentality (which is greatly encouraged by the manufacturers).

 

Also, invention is almost never the work of one person.

Here is a list of skill that were needed locally for THOUSANDS of years:

 

Tailors

Bakers

Carpenters

Furniture makers

Farmers

Weavers

Musicians

People who work with metal

 

We don't need these skilled people anymore. It has all been automated. All we need are people who can run the machine and push the button, pack a box, drive a truck and run an automated cash register. And a few skilled people who can fix the machines.

Yes, this is one of the points he makes in his book. Technology has removed us from the process, so the specialized training that skilled craftsmen have is devalued. Why take a pair of pants to the tailor to get the waist taken up when you can just throw them away and get a new pair? The hemming has to come pretty cheaply and be done well for this process to make sense to anyone in today's culture.

 

Not everybody is mathematically or scientifically inclined. But that doesn't mean that they wouldn't have been excellent at a trade.

Exactly.

Our intelligence is removing the need for human labor, thus removing jobs for people with and without skill.

No, the system is being intentionally reworked to the financial advantage of the producers. Even if we wanted to fix our tv sets, we couldn't because of the way they are being made. They are put together on an assembly line by many different people who only know their specific job. They are not familiar with electronics, only with assembly. This is cheaper for the producers, so it is the model that they go with. It doesn't necessarily mean the qualitatively better, it's just different and cheaper.

 

Yes, professionals are designing new products and manufacturing processes that remove people from the picture as much as possible. That means that we are no longer a skilled people. If we are not a skilled people, why should we earn the wages that the professionals do?

[Renee in NC]

Yes, professionals are designing new products and manufacturing processes that remove people from the picture as much as possible. That means that we are no longer a skilled people. If we are not a skilled people, why should we earn the wages that the professionals do?

 

They shouldn't. We just need to be ready to return to the living standards of the past (in this country.) Countries with lower standards of living will increase their levels. It seems that progress is the ultimate equalizer.;)

 

The pendulum will swing, though, when people no longer have enough income to continue our consumption-based economy. We will be service-based, but there will be fewer people to pay for services overall. It's kind of like China today - most of the people doing the production do not make enough to buy the products they are producing - the same will be true of the service-workers in this country.

 

I wonder what effect this will have on the American culture regarding work? As mentioned before, in the past children were taught to work hard and be successful. That isn't necessarily true anymore. I also wonder what effect it will have on college educations? How long will people pay thousands and thousands of dollars for an education that is likely to have them earning less than $30K?

[TechWife]

That was a misreading of the report. It isn't that 95% of jobs will be under 30K but that 95% of jobs will be in the service industry.

It actually says that 95% of new jobs will be in the service industry. That doesn't mean 95% of all jobs.

 

That includes what is highlighted as good paying jobs that will have demand like RN, software engineer, and higher ed teachers.

The piece highlights these jobs as jobs where there will be growth (meaning more of these professionals will be needed). The careers mentioned in your quote above are professional jobs, not service jobs. They would make up part of the 5% of the new jobs w/in the next ten years. Again, this is adding to the existing jobs. These are areas where there will not be job shrinkage or stagnation, but growth.

 

The last part of the piece is about the growth in service industry positions, which are unskilled positions such as home health aides and sales clerks. The service industry is expected to produce 95% of all new jobs in the next decade.

 

The word new is very important context.

Edited December 2, 2010 by TechWife

[Tabrett]

But is has not. For example, unless people can find a way to be smarter than the laws of physical science, evaporation and friction will always occur. This means that the oil in your car will always need to be checked and changed.

 

My dh's dad used to own a car service center. He paid $12+ an hour to his most menial employees in the 80's. Since he sold the company, they have hired all hispanics at $8 an hour. Hence very low paying UNSKILLED job. Maybe I should say the need for SKILLED human labor.

 

I would rephrase this to be that we don't want skilled musicians at the local level. Because we are used to getting music on demand, we don't see a need to pay someone to provide live music for us. We don't value the craft that a local musician has.

 

We want music, but technology has removed the need for locally skilled musicians. If we didn't have the technology, we would hire musicians on a regular basis.

 

This follows a supply/demand economic model. I've never seen statistics that back this up in the engineering field. Do you have some you can share with me? (I'm getting ready to teach a class on career exploration in our co-op & info. like this would be helpful).

I was referring the the other post about the engineers that have been hired from India that will do the job for less than American engineers. According to the other poster it is causing our American engineers to have to take less pay or they job will be taken by one from India.

The process you are describing does exist, but it is satisfactory only as long as the culture maintains it's "throw away" mentality (which is greatly encouraged by the manufacturers).

 

Also, invention is almost never the work of one person.

 

Yes, this is one of the points he makes in his book. Technology has removed us from the process, so the specialized training that skilled craftsmen have is devalued. Why take a pair of pants to the tailor to get the waist taken up when you can just throw them away and get a new pair? The hemming has to come pretty cheaply and be done well for this process to make sense to anyone in today's culture.

 

 

Exactly.

 

No, the system is being intentionally reworked to the financial advantage of the producers. Even if we wanted to fix our tv sets, we couldn't because of the way they are being made. They are put together on an assembly line by many different people who only know their specific job. They are not familiar with electronics, only with assembly. This is cheaper for the producers, so it is the model that they go with. It doesn't necessarily mean the qualitatively better, it's just different and cheaper.

 

Yes, professionals are designing new products and manufacturing processes that remove people from the picture as much as possible. That means that we are no longer a skilled people. If we are not a skilled people, why should we earn the wages that the professionals do?

 

Technology (developed from our intelligence) has removed the need for people to be skilled. If you were the most skilled TV repairman it would not matter. You are not going to be able to make a living off being very a skilled tv repairman because people are not willing to pay a living wage for their tv to be fix when they can buy a new tv. I still believe our intelligence has removed the need for the masses to be skilled workers.

[Tabrett]

It actually says that 95% of new jobs will be in the service industry. That doesn't mean 95% of all jobs.

 

The piece highlights these jobs as jobs where there will be growth (meaning more of these professionals will be needed). The careers mentioned in your quote above are professional jobs, not service jobs. They would make up part of the 5% of the new jobs w/in the next ten years. Again, this is adding to the existing jobs. These are areas where there will not be job shrinkage or stagnation, but growth.

 

The last part of the piece is about the growth in service industry positions, which are unskilled positions such as home health aides and sales clerks. The service industry is expected to produce 95% of all new jobs in the next decade.

 

The word new is very important context.

 

Trying to make sure I understand what you are saying.

 

New jobs are job that didn't exist before=position created.

 

Non-new Job=person retire or person fired and a new person replaced the job.

 

Am I right so far?

 

If I understand this correctly-Of the millions of jobs that have been lost in industry, ect and of all the people who are fresh out of school/university... 95% of the jobs these people are going to have to take are low paying service jobs. Unless someone retires or is fired and their position becomes open. Right?

[laughing lioness]

Technology (developed from our intelligence) has removed the need for people to be skilled. If you were the most skilled TV repairman it would not matter. You are not going to be able to make a living off being very a skilled tv repairman because people are not willing to pay a living wage for their tv to be fix when they can buy a new tv. I still believe our intelligence has removed the need for the masses to be skilled workers.

 

We are definitely living in a disposable society. But just like the industrial revolution changed the landscape of our country - how people lived, worked, related, etc, the techno-shift we are in now will too. Things will be different, but I don't see that we are entering into a state where the majority of folks will be grunts. The need for skilled, moderately and unskilled labor will still follow a bell curve imho. I'm thinking that I'm currently training my kids for jobs that might not even exist right now. Adapt, improvise and overcome is oft quoted around here and a phrase that I believe our kids will have to live out even more than we have.

[My3Boys]

This solely depends on which engineering one specializes in. Hubby is a Civil Engineer and he can pick anywhere to live as Civil Engineers are needed literally everywhere from rural to city. We picked every single place we've moved to including our current home. Granted, in this economy, work is much slower, but there is still some work out there.

 

And... hubby has owned his own small business for 11 years now. Many civil engineers work for small businesses or own their own.

 

Back in college he saw the "difference" looming ahead and switched from mechanical to civil. We're enjoying the freedom.

 

And yes... when he was looking for a new employee a few years back it was highly suggested to him that he employ someone in India instead for much less money (e-mailing back and forth). He didn't end up employing anyone - and in this economy - we're glad we made that decision or they'd have had to be laid off by now.

 

My dh is also a civil engineer (we live in PA as well) and his firm currently has 2 positions they can't find anyone qualified to fill. The firm he works for was started by one guy and grew to a successful medium-sized company. This has been the case with all 4 companies he has worked for. He says civil/environmental engineers are in demand and he could find a job in just about any area of the country.

 

I think part of the problem is when college students are choosing a career they need to research where the areas of need are and not choose a major based solely upon their interests.

[TechWife]

Trying to make sure I understand what you are saying.

 

New jobs are job that didn't exist before=position created.

 

Non-new Job=person retire or person fired and a new person replaced the job.

 

Am I right so far?

If I understand this correctly-Of the millions of jobs that have been lost in industry, ect and of all the people who are fresh out of school/university... 95% of the jobs these people are going to have to take are low paying service jobs. Unless someone retires or is fired and their position becomes open. Right?

Yes, old jobs will become available as people change careers, become stay at home parents, retire and are fired, laid off, etc.. People just entering the job market for the first time will be able to apply for existing jobs that are open and new jobs that are created. Keep in mind that some college graduates and underemployed people will be exchanging a job in a service industry for a professional job as well. A large number of people are expected to retire over the coming decade as "baby boomers" age out of the working population, so keep that in mind as well (I forget what the statistic is, but it's out there somewhere). This model assumes that the employers will fill every job that becomes open, however. Many employers right now are not hiring to replace retiring workers as a cost savings measure.

 

It is also entirely possible that two professional jobs can be broken down into smaller tasks and that two professionals who retire can be replaced with one professional and two service workers, the two service workers costing the employer less money than the professional that they are replacing. The net effect of this would be one professional job lost, two service jobs gained for a net effect of zero on the total number of jobs available, but with a decrease of one professional job and an increase of two service jobs. I think that this strategy is one of the reasons that service jobs will increase, especially in the medical fields. That is the one field that will have to drastically cut costs in order to provide for the new health care measures.

 

To say that 95% of the people will have to take low paying service jobs is incorrect. It is applying the statistic about potential job availability to actual employment, they are two different things. Just because a job is available it doesn't mean that someone is going to fill it. It also does not take into account that some of the people in professional jobs currently may choose a service job as a career change or a "retirement job" or those who are currently underemployed in a service job that will move into a professional job.

 

There are a lot of employment statistics that can be confusing.

[mcconnellboys]

Well, I tend to think we've already gone down the road to welfare state. I've been reading articles about future jobs for a couple of years now and they all sound pretty much the same. Yes, I'm exceedingly concerned....

[creekland]

My dh is also a civil engineer (we live in PA as well) and his firm currently has 2 positions they can't find anyone qualified to fill. The firm he works for was started by one guy and grew to a successful medium-sized company. This has been the case with all 4 companies he has worked for. He says civil/environmental engineers are in demand and he could find a job in just about any area of the country.

 

I think part of the problem is when college students are choosing a career they need to research where the areas of need are and not choose a major based solely upon their interests.

 

Hello neighbor! :D

[Margaret in GA]

Check this out:

 

 

 

I saw an expose several years ago on this and it was quite convincing that there are easy ways around hiring US workers IMHO.

 

I do agree that Americans need a life-style re-adjustment. OTOH I think it is a shame and a disgrace that the middle class is disappearing and that the rich are getting significantly richer. Where is the trickle down and jobs from the historically low tax rates that we have had for the past decade? This has nothing to do with class envy since my dh and I are quite blessed and I strongly believe in capitalism but I also believe in fairness as well as hard work and frugality.

:iagree:

 

And if 95% of jobs will be non-skilled then what is the point of nearly 30% of our population getting a college degree? Especially when you see that the average college student is $20,000 in debt. We are being sold a bill of goods by our corporate owned government

 

Margaret