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Omicron anecdata?


Not_a_Number

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On 3/11/2024 at 1:06 PM, kbutton said:

Oh, that’s twisted. People in the ICU might not be able to mask, and we know nosocomial infections are super common. There is NOTHiNg that a person could be in the ICU for that suggests getting Covid would be a good idea, even if they fully recover. Just what every critical person needs—more misery or a long time being ill!!! 

I’m the only one who wears a mask in the ICU where I work. I can’t remember how long it’s been but many months. Occasionally other people will wear one if they have a lot of symptoms going on. I know they probably think I’m crazy but they don’t say anything any more. I worked one day, felt absolutely fine, and then woke up sick the next day. Tested negative for Covid several times but I was still thankful I had been careful around the patients and didn’t seem to pass it on to anyone.

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1 hour ago, TCB said:

I’m the only one who wears a mask in the ICU where I work. I can’t remember how long it’s been but many months. Occasionally other people will wear one if they have a lot of symptoms going on. I know they probably think I’m crazy but they don’t say anything any more. I worked one day, felt absolutely fine, and then woke up sick the next day. Tested negative for Covid several times but I was still thankful I had been careful around the patients and didn’t seem to pass it on to anyone.

DH is one of just a few people in his ER that mask, and I think the rest mask only during waves.

There are two are hospitals that reinstated masking this winter for providers and staff, but not his. 

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2 hours ago, TCB said:

I know they probably think I’m crazy but they don’t say anything any more.

One of my kids is the only person who masks at work and clearly their coworkers find it strange, but also, my kid is the one filling in on all the shifts for everyone who keeps being sick from coworkers coming to work sick and spreading it to everyone else. I wonder if any of them have even made the connection that dc is the only one of them that hasn’t been sick.

 

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1 hour ago, whitestavern said:

That is encouraging if true, though I also think that the high rate of Covid infection still makes this a big societal burden. I am not going to argue that the flu is not serious though—it has long-term effects much more often than we give it credit for.

I wonder at what point after the 1918 flu pandemic that people stopped seeing a dramatic difference in after effects and illness rates. I know they had post-infection complications (Awakenings movie) that unfolded much later.

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15 minutes ago, Laura Corin said:

I had a full neuropsych evaluation in 2018, and did a reassessment in 2022 as a LongCovid patient.  The good news was my IQ was intact.  The bad news was my processing speed had dropped a full standard deviation…  

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3 hours ago, kbutton said:

That is encouraging if true, though I also think that the high rate of Covid infection still makes this a big societal burden. I am not going to argue that the flu is not serious though—it has long-term effects much more often than we give it credit for.

I wonder at what point after the 1918 flu pandemic that people stopped seeing a dramatic difference in after effects and illness rates. I know they had post-infection complications (Awakenings movie) that unfolded much later.

Agree with you on all of that. We’ve long known post viral illness is a thing, though this particular Australian study is the only one that I’ve seen that has indicated a similar rate after Covid as after the flu. As one of the researchers states in the article, it may be specific to Australia, where almost everyone had been vaccinated by the time they got Covid. Since it does appear that vaccination reduces the risk of long Covid (though unfortunately not nearly enough), I can certainly see that making a difference there versus the other places where studies have shown the post viral illness rate being significantly higher post Covid.

Related and also in The Guardian today:

‘Alarming’ rise in Americans with long Covid symptoms

This article also mentions what Kbutton does above about the even longer-term effects that we don’t even know about yet such as seen post polio, post 1918 flu, and with a number of other viruses.

 

Edited by KSera
Forgot to proofread
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Just FYI, apparently, the information from the Guardian article quoted above came from the abstract for a conference presentation (twitter link) and hasn't been peer reviewed or published, nor is the observational study available online. Even so, it is being used as solid evidence by the Daily Mail and the New York Post to claim, on Long COVID Awareness Day, that "Long COVID is fake."

Edited by Amoret
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1 hour ago, Amoret said:

Even so, it is being used as solid evidence by the Daily Mail and the New York Post to claim, on Long COVID Awareness Day, that "Long COVID is fake."

It’s so disgusting. I mean, what would one expect from the New York post, but this is low, even for them. Just disgusting when people are suffering like this.

image.thumb.jpeg.310caebd2d7e0fc01c8b0d45ec46fa3b.jpeg

More personal stories on Long Covid Moonshot

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4 hours ago, Amoret said:

Just FYI, apparently, the information from the Guardian article quoted above came from the abstract for a conference presentation (twitter link) and hasn't been peer reviewed or published, nor is the observational study available online. Even so, it is being used as solid evidence by the Daily Mail and the New York Post to claim, on Long COVID Awareness Day, that "Long COVID is fake."

Yes, I came here to post about this - you need to look at the expert reactions to this, which Amoret's twitter feed linked to https://www.scimex.org/newsfeed/expert-reaction-long-covid-may-be-no-different-to-other-long-term-virus-effects. I also suspect this  timing of the release of this publication  Long Covid Awareness Day is the start of an attempt to cancel long covid, just as they are cancelling everything else - covid precautions, data collection, testing, air filters (yes - some employers threw out their air filters at the end of the public health emergency!) etc. 

Is it sad that I went to check if Ashish Jha retweeted this Guardian article? And while he has (not yet) done that, he did retweet a series of tweets by someone that includes gems like "immunity prevents most of the effects of SARS-CoV-2 infection, from heart problems to longCOVID." and " they have remained in the fear of the virus, the zeroCovid movement...They keep their fear in denying immunity and its effects, which now make SARS-CoV-2 comparable with other respiratory viruses."

And even if it is the case the rate of long covid is just like the rate of "long flu" - I don't know many people who catch the flu every single year multiple years in a row (what is the average number of covid infections for Americans up to now, approximately 3 years after we abandoned most precautions?). Covid is just so much more infectious...

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14 hours ago, Mom_to3 said:

I also suspect this  timing of the release of this publication  Long Covid Awareness Day is the start of an attempt to cancel long covid,

Yes, that was talked about when this article came out in Time a few months back that is conflating LC with ME/CFS.

14 hours ago, Mom_to3 said:

Is it sad that I went to check if Ashish Jha retweeted this Guardian article?

You're not alone in this (see this recent profile of Jha from The Pandemic Accountability Index).

14 hours ago, Mom_to3 said:

(what is the average number of covid infections for Americans up to now, approximately 3 years after we abandoned most precautions?

 Here is one estimate (Twitter)

COVID-19 Forecast, March 11, 2024
    đŸ”¹3.5 cumulative infections per person on average in the U.S. so far
    đŸ”¹7.3 cumulative infections per person on average in the U.S. in four years, IF transmission continues according to the status quo of the linear trend
    đŸ”¹Many caveats noted below

    — Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA (@michael_hoerger) March 13, 2024

Edited by Amoret
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17 hours ago, Mom_to3 said:

Is it sad that I went to check if Ashish Jha retweeted this Guardian article? And while he has (not yet) done that, he did retweet a series of tweets by someone that includes gems like "immunity prevents most of the effects of SARS-CoV-2 infection, from heart problems to longCOVID." and " they have remained in the fear of the virus, the zeroCovid movement...They keep their fear in denying immunity and its effects, which now make SARS-CoV-2 comparable with other respiratory viruses."

Martin Kulldorf, one of the three co-authors of the Great Barrington Declaration, still claims that being infected with covid provides lifelong immunity that is superior to vaccination, and he opposes vaccination for anyone but the elderly and high risk. He also claims that the mRNA vaccines are dangerous and should never be used, preferring the J&J and AZ vaccines — despite lower efficacy rates and serious issues with blood clots.

He was just fired from Harvard Med School a few days ago and posted a long diatribe claiming he is being censored and silenced for telling The Truth the government doesn't want you to know. And of course 99% of the comments on that post are a crazy train of antivax, anti-government conspiracy theories (with a side of antisemitism), while the 1% who try to cite actual scientific studies are attacked as "shills for Big Pharma," accused of being Fauci using a false name, etc.

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8 hours ago, Corraleno said:

Martin Kulldorf, one of the three co-authors of the Great Barrington Declaration, still claims that being infected with covid provides lifelong immunity that is superior to vaccination, and he opposes vaccination for anyone but the elderly and high risk. He also claims that the mRNA vaccines are dangerous and should never be used, preferring the J&J and AZ vaccines — despite lower efficacy rates and serious issues with blood clots.

I really hoped that a lot of those who were uncomfortable with mRNA vaccines (and the adenovirus vaccines) would rush to get Novavax; however, no one I have mentioned it to has even heard of it. I wonder if most people know there is an effective vaccine available that uses more traditional technology. It seems like that should have been important messaging when Novavax became available to most last fall.

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34 minutes ago, iamonlyone said:

I really hoped that a lot of those who were uncomfortable with mRNA vaccines (and the adenovirus vaccines) would rush to get Novavax; however, no one I have mentioned it to has even heard of it. I wonder if most people know there is an effective vaccine available that uses more traditional technology. It seems like that should have been important messaging when Novavax became available to most last fall.

Plus Novavax doesn't seem to have the harsh side effects of the mRNA vaccines — I purposely sought out Novavax for the fall booster (XBB) for myself and my kids, and none of us even had a slightly sore arm, whereas Moderna absolutely kicked my butt for a few days each time.

 

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On 3/16/2024 at 5:24 AM, Amoret said:

Just FYI, apparently, the information from the Guardian article quoted above came from the abstract for a conference presentation (twitter link) and hasn't been peer reviewed or published, nor is the observational study available online. Even so, it is being used as solid evidence by the Daily Mail and the New York Post to claim, on Long COVID Awareness Day, that "Long COVID is fake."

This ran in the ABC. The second author of the study was the QLD health minister who was responsible for the decision to drop many COVID restrictions. There’s a huge conflict of interest.

Edited by Ausmumof3
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10 hours ago, Corraleno said:

Plus Novavax doesn't seem to have the harsh side effects of the mRNA vaccines — I purposely sought out Novavax for the fall booster (XBB) for myself and my kids, and none of us even had a slightly sore arm, whereas Moderna absolutely kicked my butt for a few days each time.

 

Exactly! I keep reading things that say the differences in side effects are minimal, but my experience was similar to yours. My side effects from Pfizer weren't terrible, but I needed to take it easy the day after and my arm was sore a few days. I drove an hour to a bigger city to get Novavax, and I'm a fan: zero side effects. I kept pushing on my arm because I couldn't believe it wasn't sore.

Plus, I read a few things that say it may have longer efficacy. Finally, some researchers think mixing types may be helpful. So many pluses, yet if I Google "Novavax" I get articles about stock, and if I do a search with more words there are very few articles, and the newest article I get is from December. It just seems like it makes sense to get out the message that there is a vaccine without some of the (perceived and/or real) downsides of the mRNA options.

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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-21/shingles-cases-increasing-nsw-covid-rise/103600746

I have seen this personally. They actually rolled out the new Shingles vaccine at the end of last year I think (in Australia) free for anyone over 65. I think they should roll it out younger, but at least you can choose to pay and get vaccinated (unlike Covid!)

https://www.croakey.org/long-covid-headlines-raise-questions-for-the-media-and-medical-conference-promoters-amongst-others/

Good article analysing the recent 'study' about long covid.

Edited by bookbard
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33 minutes ago, bookbard said:

Good article analysing the recent 'study' about long covid.

I read several good responses. This is a very good one I hadn’t seen yet; thanks for sharing. 
 

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35 minutes ago, bookbard said:

What do you make of the rising trend having started in 2019? I wish it included about 10 more years of data going back to see what rates were like prior to 2018. Perhaps 2018 was an abnormally low year, can’t say based on this chart.

Separately, there was another story linked within the story that was a good piece on long Covid:

Scientists say there's been a 'revolution' in understanding long COVID, but sufferers are still feeling left behind

On nomenclature, I’m actually hearing a lot of Long Covid sufferers being inclined to move onto a different name, just because people don’t seem to understand the long Covid name. People often think that it means you got Covid and you just continue to have acute Covid symptoms for a long time and/or they think it means you’re still contagious.

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37 minutes ago, KSera said:

What do you make of the rising trend having started in 2019? I wish it included about 10 more years of data going back to see what rates were like prior to 2018. Perhaps 2018 was an abnormally low year, can’t say based on this chart.

Separately, there was another story linked within the story that was a good piece on long Covid:

Scientists say there's been a 'revolution' in understanding long COVID, but sufferers are still feeling left behind

On nomenclature, I’m actually hearing a lot of Long Covid sufferers being inclined to move onto a different name, just because people don’t seem to understand the long Covid name. People often think that it means you got Covid and you just continue to have acute Covid symptoms for a long time and/or they think it means you’re still contagious.

I noticed shingles increasing pre Covid. I think there’s some evidence that reexposure to chicken pox is protective. So we are increasing the rate of shingles temporarily but hopefully decreasing it for the next generation who are vaccinated and won’t catch it. (Hopefully)

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On 3/20/2024 at 8:16 PM, KSera said:

What do you make of the rising trend having started in 2019? I wish it included about 10 more years of data going back to see what rates were like prior to 2018. Perhaps 2018 was an abnormally low year, can’t say based on this chart.

 

Here's long-term data on shingles in the US:

https://www.cdc.gov/shingles/surveillance.html

 

As someone else mentioned, less exposure to chicken pox in the community  (because of vaccination in children) is thought to lead to higher rates of shingles among adults because our immunity to the virus isn't getting regularly boosted through small exposures. Falling rates among those over 55 would be due to the shingles vaccine being given to those age groups.

There are a few reasons cases could have spiked in recent years. The stress of dealing with a pandemic is one reason--I'm confident that is why I got shingles in the summer of 2020. Stress is a known risk factor. So is illness. Anything that lowers the body's immune system. Since community exposure to chicken pox in the wild likely still plays a role in boosting our defenses against the virus hiding away in our own bodies, isolation and masking during the pandemic could also have contributed to a rise in shingles cases.

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1 hour ago, mommyoffive said:

This is scary:

"We found significantly reduced grey matter in whole-brain analyses in patients with an acute COVID-19 infection in the left inferior frontal gyrus, the insular cortex and the basal ganglia compared to healthy controls. This decline could also be retraced in recovered patients compared to healthy controls in similar regions suggesting persistence of these changes over the period of acute illness.

  1. A decline in executive function and especially verbal fluency was found in acute patients, partially persisting in recovered. Changes in gray matter volume and white matter tracts included mainly areas involved in networks of executive control and language."

  2. Obviously there's a lot of concern about the increased risk of long covid from repeated infections and the potential effect on the economy of increasing numbers of workers being disabled by chronic fatigue. Now imagine the potential impact of those repeated infections also causing permanent (and possibly cumulative) brain damage and a reduction in executive function skills in a wide swath of the current workforce! And with children likely to be infected at least yearly, if not more frequently, that really does not bode well for the future.

Edited by Corraleno
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41 minutes ago, maize said:

Since community exposure to chicken pox in the wild likely still plays a role in boosting our defenses against the virus hiding away in our own bodies, isolation and masking during the pandemic could also have contributed to a rise in shingles cases.

Thanks for the link to data. I agree the overall rise in shingles incidence that started in the nineties is likely due to childhood vaccination. I don’t know that pandemic masking could account for the current rise though. I don’t expect there has been enough wild chickenpox out there for those encounters to be making a significant impact on older people’s immunity for quite a while, so the lack of those encounters doesn’t seem it would change it. Not to mention that for much of the country, nobody masked for years anyways. It would be interesting though to look at the shingles rates by location and see if the current rates are higher or lower in states that had schools closed and people masking for longer and if they are higher or lower in states that experienced the highest rates of Covid disease. 

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35 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Now imagine the potential impact of those repeated infections also causing permanent (and possibly cumulative) brain damage and a reduction in executive function skills in a wide swath of the current workforce! And with children likely to be infected at least yearly, if not more frequently, that really does not bode well for the future.

I can’t figure out why this is mostly being ignored, despite the fact it keeps being found to be true. I guess its kind of like climate change—so big and overwhelming and disastrous that it’s easier to pretend it isn’t happening. 

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56 minutes ago, KSera said:

Thanks for the link to data. I agree the overall rise in shingles incidence that started in the nineties is likely due to childhood vaccination. I don’t know that pandemic masking could account for the current rise though. I don’t expect there has been enough wild chickenpox out there for those encounters to be making a significant impact on older people’s immunity for quite a while, so the lack of those encounters doesn’t seem it would change it. Not to mention that for much of the country, nobody masked for years anyways. It would be interesting though to look at the shingles rates by location and see if the current rates are higher or lower in states that had schools closed and people masking for longer and if they are higher or lower in states that experienced the highest rates of Covid disease. 

In the category of "research on human populations is always going to involve lots of complicating factors"--if we can find a shingles rate breakdown by locality we would also need to cross-check it with shingles vaccination rate by locality. 

 

Screenshot_20240322_101421_Chrome.jpg

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38 minutes ago, maize said:

if we can find a shingles rate breakdown by locality we would also need to cross-check it with shingles vaccination rate by locality. 

True! I had gone looking for more detailed rate information, but I was only finding data for rates of shingles vaccination. Shingles isn’t a reportable illness, so apparently our case rate data isn’t very good.

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And some are linking the rise in shingles to Covid itself.

In 2020 I used first principles to note that where there was T cell death, there would likely be dysfunction of the immune system subsequently

It is still highly contentious but there are deniers that would prefer you not attribute shingles to Covidhttps://t.co/PLFdz2h3WK

— AJ Leonardi, MBBS, PhD (@fitterhappierAJ) March 21, 2024

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12 minutes ago, Amoret said:

And some are linking the rise in shingles to Covid itself.

In 2020 I used first principles to note that where there was T cell death, there would likely be dysfunction of the immune system subsequently

It is still highly contentious but there are deniers that would prefer you not attribute shingles to Covidhttps://t.co/PLFdz2h3WK

— AJ Leonardi, MBBS, PhD (@fitterhappierAJ) March 21, 2024

Right. I think the million dollar question remains about to what degree illnesses that appear to be increasing since 2020 are a result of the effects of covid on the immune system. I gather it's going to take a good deal of time before that hypothesis is either accepted or discarded. I don't know why the suggestion is so controversial to so many people though--clearly the virus has impacts on the immune system, so it stands to reason it needs to be investigated how covid impacts immunity to other viruses.

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On 3/22/2024 at 2:44 PM, Amoret said:

If you look at the COVID "year over year" numbers on the Biobot chart, you'll see that this spring, infection is the highest ever.

How do you mean? Do you mean highest it’s been at this point in the year? It appears to have come way down from the winter peak, but does look not as far down as on this date in other years. 

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