Menu
Jump to content

What's with the ads?

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Melissa in Australia

Ebola outbreak spreading

Recommended Posts

For what it's worth, I just did some calculations. 0.001% of the population of Guinea, where this outbreak originated, has died of Ebola. If it spread to the US and this death rate remained stable, that would mean about 3000 victims in the US. I would expect the death rate in the US to be lower due to better medical facilities and supplies, better nutrition, and better sanitation.

 

Of course, it's an ongoing thing, and the death rate in the end will probably be somewhat higher. But given that this has been going on for half a year now, I wouldn't expect it to be significantly higher from a whole-population standpoint, unless it became more easily transmittable.

 

(Edit: I found more recent numbers that put the death rate at closer to 0.004% of the population. Still very small, but I want to be accurate.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it's really hard to change cultural customs anywhere.  I do think the USA should have a 2-3 week quarantine for anyone who has passed through an affected country; at least until the outbreak is under control.

 

I read in the paper some where a CDC official said it was highly unlikely Ebola would make it to the USA, but I don't believe that for a minute.  In fact, I think it's likely it will make it here.  Perhaps it won't rise to the level of an epidemic, but I think there is a good chance it could land here.  All it would take would be an exposed person visiting relatives here who hopped the plane before they felt sick.

 

One strain already made it here (scary) and was airborne (even scarier) so I'm surprised that they say it's 'highly unlikely'.  In the past it seems like the virus burned itself out because it killed its hosts too quickly.  This time it seems to be hanging around longer or at least infecting more people.  Maybe I'm mistaken about that though?  I couldn't find online where it listed how long the other outbreaks lasted. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This outbreak has been larger and killed more people than any in the past (although the death rate has at least been lower), but that's largely because it's in a new place where there isn't familiarity with the disease. So far, it hasn't lasted longer, but it also doesn't seem to be winding down quite yet.

 

I think it's entirely possible it'll go to the US sometime, and maybe soon, but it's very unlikely to have the same effects there as it does in Africa.  I'm just having trouble seeing this as a major threat to anyone except close family members of people who already have the disease and health care workers.  If it spreads to a developed country, it will be contained quickly.  We have several friends in Liberia who are in no way concerned about this even there, and I don't think they should be.  Hopefully, once this outbreak is over and things have calmed down, education will make a big difference in reducing the risk and/or intensity of future outbreaks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree with the bolded; we have better treatment options.  I still wouldn't want to take that bet with my own health, though.

For what it's worth, I just did some calculations. 0.001% of the population of Guinea, where this outbreak originated, has died of Ebola. If it spread to the US and this death rate remained stable, that would mean about 3000 victims in the US. I would expect the death rate in the US to be lower due to better medical facilities and supplies, better nutrition, and better sanitation.

 

Of course, it's an ongoing thing, and the death rate in the end will probably be somewhat higher. But given that this has been going on for half a year now, I wouldn't expect it to be significantly higher from a whole-population standpoint, unless it became more easily transmittable.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just saw a report tonight on Fox that the two Americans infected with Ebola may be brought back to the U.S. for treatment.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, that was Ebola Reston.  It actually is a very different strain and originated in the Philippines with a shipment of Macaque monkeys.  How it (Ebola) got to the Philippines is a matter of speculation; one crew of scientists seems to think it originally came from Africa and mutated, and another crew of scientists think it evolved separately in the Philippines.  There is some evidence for both points of view.  Either way, it travelled through the air ducts at a US military research facility here, but didn't seem to infect humans.  That same Ebola Reston made it here twice, actually.  But the feds were on it after Reston, and those monkeys were quarantined in Texas when they came in from the Philippines the second time around and killed when they were found to be carrying the virus. 

 

The outbreak does seem to be more widespread this time, and I think that is common for spillover events as humans encroach upon places where they have not dwelled before.  HIV followed the same pattern.  It's scary...you don't have much of a chance, really, with the Ebola Zaire strain.

One strain already made it here (scary) and was airborne (even scarier) so I'm surprised that they say it's 'highly unlikely'.  In the past it seems like the virus burned itself out because it killed its hosts too quickly.  This time it seems to be hanging around longer or at least infecting more people.  Maybe I'm mistaken about that though?  I couldn't find online where it listed how long the other outbreaks lasted. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 I still wouldn't want to take that bet with my own health, though.

 

I agree. I think all precautions currently being taken are reasonable, and that there should perhaps be more of them. But it isn't keeping me awake at night (beyond arguing on the internet), either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, that was my question as well.. I'm sure these doctors took the ultimate precautions... If they even thought they had been exposed the they would have quarantined themselves... They know how lethal it is.. So I am wondering if they have figured out how they were exposed....

 

Thanks to everyone who weighed in on my original question about how the medical workers got infected. I was interested to hear about the strain differing slightly, with the unknowns that might bring. I read an article on CNN today which explained that one of their local colleagues had come to work for two days after becoming infected. They believe the infection crossed to the American workers in the 'scrub down room' if I am remembering correctly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On NPR this morning they said that the two Americans were improving slightly and that the Peace Corps and other development agencies were pulling all their workers (or maybe it was all nonessential?) workers out the three countries affected.

 

The news is so extra depressing lately.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is really good news.  I bet they are getting the best of care and fluid/nutritional support; care that's not normally available to poor residents of the affected nations.  I wonder if that 90% fatality rate in the Zaire strain could be substantially reduced with excellent medical care?

On NPR this morning they said that the two Americans were improving slightly and that the Peace Corps and other development agencies were pulling all their workers (or maybe it was all nonessential?) workers out the three countries affected.

 

The news is so extra depressing lately.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I saw something on the news yesterday that the CDC was issuing a call not only for aid workers to return but also to domestic doctors to ask about travel and be on the lookout.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is really good news.  I bet they are getting the best of care and fluid/nutritional support; care that's not normally available to poor residents of the affected nations.  I wonder if that 90% fatality rate in the Zaire strain could be substantially reduced with excellent medical care?

 

It is good news.  I haven't checked again, but I hope they're still stable.  Also encouraging in a more long term way was another NPR story from yesterday where they talked with a scientist who said we might be as little as three to five years away from a vaccine for ebola, which seems positive.

 

Still, it's spreading now and it seems like it's going to get worse before it gets better, honestly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, they are bringing the infected Americans here to the U.S. for treatment.  They will be taken to Atlanta.  I really hope this improves their chances for survival, as right now, I'd say they're somewhere between "slim" and "none".

 

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/07/31/first-ebola-case-coming-to-atlanta-for-treatment.html

 

This article is on HuffPost, but the source is Reuters: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/31/ebola-patient-coming-to-u_n_5639847.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks to everyone who weighed in on my original question about how the medical workers got infected. I was interested to hear about the strain differing slightly, with the unknowns that might bring. I read an article on CNN today which explained that one of their local colleagues had come to work for two days after becoming infected. They believe the infection crossed to the American workers in the 'scrub down room' if I am remembering correctly.

given the varying incubation periods for different people, I would expect more to become ill.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

media hare is saying that it is spread by all body fluid, including sweat. 

 

there was one man who recovered.  it was found LIVE in his semen ***61*** DAYS after he "recovered".

*

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, they are bringing the infected Americans here to the U.S. for treatment.  They will be taken to Atlanta.  I really hope this improves their chances for survival, as right now, I'd say they're somewhere between "slim" and "none".

 

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/07/31/first-ebola-case-coming-to-atlanta-for-treatment.html

 

This article is on HuffPost, but the source is Reuters: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/31/ebola-patient-coming-to-u_n_5639847.html

 

Yes, apparently Emory has a special quarantine facility that they designed with the CDC and never knew if they'd need to use.

 

Of course Donald Trump (or Donald Trump's hair…if you follow the Celebrity Aliens thread) is making inane comments about that.  Kind of makes me want to house them at Trump Tower.  

 

Ugh.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, apparently Emory has a special quarantine facility that they designed with the CDC and never knew if they'd need to use.

 

Of course Donald Trump (or Donald Trump's hair…if you follow the Celebrity Aliens thread) is making inane comments about that.  Kind of makes me want to house them at Trump Tower.  

 

Ugh.

 

He is such a nutjob.

 

He is like a lemming trying to drag people over the cliff of insanity. (I know lemmings don't really jump off cliffs)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm getting nervous for people going to Hajj. We're talking 2 million people from all over the world.

 

ETA: Early October

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm getting nervous for people going to Hajj. We're talking 2 million people from all over the world.

 

ETA: Early October

 

Hopefully they can contain it before it reaches the area. :(

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wasn't sure which thread to bump.  I wanted to ask if anyone knows or has read about long-term recovery & prognosis?   I'm reading "The Hot Zone" - thanks to the threads here. It's a *great* book on the subject of Ebola.   I'm about 150pages from the end (they're busy trying to contain the Reston facility).    Anyway, the article I've read about the doctor in Atlanta said that he was "near death" but has recovered.   From the book it sounds like "near death" is pretty seriously ill and it seems very hard to come out without long-lasting repercussions.  I know it probably depends on which organ it starts to break down first, but wouldn't most patients have kidney, liver, brain, or other organs that are seriously compromised?   The book says that Ebola turns the body into a mushy fluid.   So, if someone is really "near death" but recovers, what is their long-term prognosis?   No one ever seems to talk about it - it's treated like a deadly flu- when you recover, you recover.  So far, that's the way it sounds in the book too.  But gosh, the book also makes it sound like it really attacks the body hard. 

 

Thoughts? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

'

 

Thanks!  I knew someone here at WTM would be more well read on this subject than me. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wasn't sure which thread to bump.  I wanted to ask if anyone knows or has read about long-term recovery & prognosis?   I'm reading "The Hot Zone" - thanks to the threads here. It's a *great* book on the subject of Ebola.   I'm about 150pages from the end (they're busy trying to contain the Reston facility).    Anyway, the article I've read about the doctor in Atlanta said that he was "near death" but has recovered.   From the book it sounds like "near death" is pretty seriously ill and it seems very hard to come out without long-lasting repercussions.  I know it probably depends on which organ it starts to break down first, but wouldn't most patients have kidney, liver, brain, or other organs that are seriously compromised?   The book says that Ebola turns the body into a mushy fluid.   So, if someone is really "near death" but recovers, what is their long-term prognosis?   No one ever seems to talk about it - it's treated like a deadly flu- when you recover, you recover.  So far, that's the way it sounds in the book too.  But gosh, the book also makes it sound like it really attacks the body hard. 

 

Thoughts? 

 

I'm so glad you asked this! I'm also reading "The Hot Zone" right now, and it's quite frightening. I've been wondering the same thing about how one really recovers from Ebola. I did read yesterday that the woman who was treated at Emory was still having many issues and had a great deal of recovering to still do at home. Since reading THZ, I've been wondering if that means that she'll have lifelong problems from it, though I hope she won't.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...