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5221:52

SHAREDRadiation levels at Chernobyl abnormal, says UN atomic power chief

The head of the UN's atomic agency says radiation levels at the former Chernobyl nuclear power station, the scene of weeks of fighting after the Russian invasion, are "abnormal".

International Atomic Energy Agency director general Rafael Grossi told reporters Russia's weeks-long occupation of the site was "very, very dangerous", according to AFP.

The disused power station was the site of history's worst nuclear disaster in 1986 and is still used to contain nuclear waste

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A respected Russian military analyst (retired from a military career, now a columnist) went on Russian state TV and said the Ukrainians have better morale because they are fighting for their homeland, the "saber-rattling" at Finland is a big mistake, Russia is now totally isolated, and basically there's no good way out of this mess. The host keeps trying to interrupt him and continue to push the propaganda, but he keeps going. And this is state media, so someone somewhere in the hierarchy had to approve his appearance on this show...

 

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9 hours ago, Corraleno said:

A respected Russian military analyst (retired from a military career, now a columnist) went on Russian state TV and said the Ukrainians have better morale because they are fighting for their homeland, the "saber-rattling" at Finland is a big mistake, Russia is now totally isolated, and basically there's no good way out of this mess. The host keeps trying to interrupt him and continue to push the propaganda, but he keeps going. And this is state media, so someone somewhere in the hierarchy had to approve his appearance on this show...

 

Mikhail Khodarenok - a retired colonel.  He has previously spoken out - so it would be interesting to know if someone gave him permission to speak out, or if he just earned himself a one-way ticket to a siberian gulag.  But the russian people need to hear the truth.

putin needs to be taken out - some supposition the rx he's on, or perhaps whatever ails him, has made him crazy and paranoid.  people are dying brutal deaths because of him.

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A friend of me is together with somebody that went over there for a private military company and he said there is no way that Russia can win or be successful. However, he is really traumatized.

He believes that the NATO should go in to avoid further destruction but I really hope it won't be necessary that they go in.

I am grateful that the US military is there and secures the border to Poland and other nations. It is very very scary and Putin is completely crazy. 

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One bit I continue to ponder is with re: to Taiwan.  I believe we've chosen to donate as heavily as we have as a nation (with re: to equipment, intelligence, etc.) because we're demonstrating to Taiwan and China that we really do go to bat for allies.  We've been able to re-secure some alliances that had felt a bit bumpy within NATO, and I do believe Putin still has an eye on Poland and elsewhere, but Ukraine is about so much more than Ukraine, iykwim.

China domestically has its hands full with covid, energy shortages, etc. much like us, but it's been very clear that it wants control of Taiwan.  Taiwan is the only place in the world right now with the machines to make the machines that make certain kinds of chips. TSMC in Taiwan and Samsung in South Korea are the only places that make 5 nanometer chips.  ASML, a Dutch company, is the only place that makes the lithography equipment for those chip machines.  If China takes control of Taiwan's chips, it pretty much will bring the world to its knees. 

But, we don't really talk about that a lot. And I don't know why. And I don't know we as Americans don't really talk about or understand that China is painting us as the baddies in the Ukraine conflict. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/6/china-media-coverage-ukraine-war

It just makes me a bit nervous that we are depleting our arms stock (we've sent 1/3 of our Javelin anti-tank missile stock to Ukraine already, having difficulties restocking) three months into what is now likely to be a long conflict.

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@prairiewindmomma I have been wondering about the effects of everything going on in Ukraine on the situation in Taiwan as well. I have strong sympathies with Taiwan, so that's my bias going in.

There were some things written at the very start of the war and just before about how China would be watching to see how it went - how did the world respond when Russia tried to take over Ukraine. And they'd be taking cues. Well, if they're taking any cues, then obviously that cue would be "maybe... don't invade your breakaway provinces that have American and international support"? I have no idea if they actually would or not. China's military is not as bumbling as Russia's. Their commitment to taking Taiwan is not as much strategic (though it's that as well) as it is about culture and pride and face. Plus, China is possibly dealing with growing resistance to their handling of the Covid crisis as more shutdowns loom. What happened in Shanghai is pretty widely known and people aren't happy about the possibility of a Shanghai style shutdown in their own cities.

Then again, with the world focused on a million other crises - Ukraine chief among them - maybe that's a better time for an invasion. And maybe it's just what a restless nation "needs" to distract them from perceived government failures. So. Basically, I have no clue. But I'm also worried.

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The Javelins are being used for their intended purpose: taking out Russian tanks. And they (in combination with UK/Swedish NLAWs and Carl Gustav M4s, howitzers, and drone strikes are doing a spectacular job.

The Ukrainians are seriously degrading Putin's tank forces. The best use.

No need to keep huge piles of these in "reserve." Taiwan will not  defend themselves against China with anti-tank weapons.

This conflict has to be giving China pause. The situation is different. Ukraine can be supplied by land through NATO countries and the European military allience is strong, but isolating one's nation against the industrialized free world is not a good path for a country like China.

They see what's happening. The coming weeks and month are going to go very badly for the Russian army. UKR forces now have the intelligence capabilities (with help) to monitor and target all Russian positions and troop movements and to strike them with precision guided weapons. 

Putin's forces are going to get pounded.

Bill

 

 

 

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I don't think they invade right now.

The US is back and strong again. After a couple of years where the world (especially Europe) was wondering if the US is still a reliable, morally strong ally, half of the world is now standing strong behind the US again. 

China can not be without the European and US market and I think they would not risk it for Taiwan right now.

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Russian soldiers raping Ukrainian women.

They are still horrible.

My dad was born 1940 in Germany. After the war they had US, French and Russian soldiers everywhere. All the people I know that lived at that time said the same thing.

US and French soldiers helped feed the people, gave kids breakfast, helped building up the country. Of course stuff happened but it was never ever accepted by their leadership and soldiers got in trouble if they did wrong things.

Russian sodiers stole everything even from the poorest and before they left even shot all their animals so they could not eat and raped the women and it was completely accepted by their leadership.

It seems like not much has changed.

It makes me so sick to my stomach.

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  • 8 months later...

I've been following the war pretty closely and the sheer magnitude of Russian incompetence has been staggering. They are just throwing wave after wave of untrained, unprepared, vastly undersupplied conscripts at the front line with no planning or command structure, no backup, no artillery cover, no medics for wounded soldiers who are just left behind to bleed out or freeze to death, etc. What little equipment they have breaks down, or doesn't work at all, and a lot of the supplies that exist on paper do not exist in reality because of rampant corruption. Billions that were supposed to have been spent on a state of the art military went to mega-yachts and overseas villas instead.

And then there are the mercenaries privately funded by Putin, Kadyrov's Chechens and Prigozhin's Wagner Group. Putin is currently very unhappy with Prigozhin, who was generously funded in return for the promise that the convicted murderers and rapists Prigozhin recruited from prisons would be much more effective than the Russian military and would provide Putin with desperately needed victories. But after months and months of brutal fighting, Wagner still has not been able to take Bakhmut, which isn't even a city of strategic importance. The only reason Ukraine is still defending it is because the Russian losses there have been so much higher than their own. Of the 50,000 Wagner soldiers sent to Ukraine, only 10,000 are still fighting, the rest have been killed, wounded, captured, or deserted.

The Kadrovites get mocked as "TikTok warriors" because they generally try to stay as far from the front line as possible and their main job seems to be shooting retreating Russian soldiers and making fake combat videos. The biggest losses for the Kadrovites seem to be when Ukrainian forces blow up the hotels they're staying in.

All the media reports on which countries were going to send which tanks to Ukraine seem to have had the desired effect of panicking the Russian military into starting their big "spring offensive" prematurely, in the hope of getting better positions before the tanks arrived, but it's not going well. The Ukrainian military claimed the highest one-day casualty figures yesterday, with more than 1000 Russians killed. Take that number with a grain of salt, but it is certainly true that as Russia increasingly relies on sending totally untrained, unmotivated, unequipped conscripts on what are essentially suicide missions, the casualty figures are escalating — and it will only get worse when Western tanks arrive.

 

 

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

One year today since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

This summary of the situation by an Orthodox Christian cleric shortly before that says it best:

“The Ukrainian and Russian peoples came out of the Dnieper baptismal font, and the war between these peoples is a repetition of the sin of Cain, who out of envy killed his own brother. Such a war is not justified either by God or by people.

I call on everyone to common sense, which teaches us to solve our earthly problems in mutual dialogue and mutual understanding, and I sincerely hope that God will forgive us our sins and God’s peace will reign on our earth and throughout the world!"

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