Just saw this H1N1 article on yahoo: What do you think?

[calledtobehome]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091024/ap_on_go_pr_wh/us_obama_swine_flu

[Erica in PA]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091024/ap_on_go_pr_wh/us_obama_swine_flu

 

Vent: I am so totally confused about this whole H1N1 thing. When I took my 13 yos to the Dr. last night for flu symptoms, she told me no one is testing for it anymore-- that anyone with flu symptoms is assumed to have H1N1. A friend who is a nurse at a local ER told me the same thing. If this is being done all across the country, how does anyone have *any* idea how many people have H1N1?

 

The pediatrician also told me that she encourages the vaccination, but that their office wouldn't be getting any-- kids will get them in school. Since my dc are homeschooled, she said I would have to find community clinics. I asked her about kids 10 and under having to get two vaccinations 3 weeks apart, and asked, "So I am supposed to find two community clinics that are three weeks apart??" Not likely when almost every one in my area is being cancelled because they don't have any vaccines to offer, and hundreds of people are being turned away when one is held. And are the schools all giving two doses, three weeks apart, to kids under 10? Her reply, "Well, who knows if there will even be enough vaccine to give any of the kids two doses?" :confused: She told me not to worry about getting the vaccine, because my family may have already had it anyway, and the cases she's seen haven't been very serious.

 

I just think the whole thing is a BIG MESS. There is so much bad information out there, I don't even know where to look for anything accurate. I think we're just going to forget about the vaccines, stay home as much as possible, and hope for the best.

[LauraGB]

Vent: I am so totally confused about this whole H1N1 thing. When I took my 13 yos to the Dr. last night for flu symptoms, she told me no one is testing for it anymore-- that anyone with flu symptoms is assumed to have H1N1. A friend who is a nurse at a local ER told me the same thing. If this is being done all across the country, how does anyone have *any* idea how many people have H1N1?...

 

...I just think the whole thing is a BIG MESS.

:iagree: If no one is being tested, if people are told not to come in to the hospital, how in the world can there even be accurate numbers? Who knows if we just were sick w/the regular flu a week ago, or if they should add 3 more to thier roster? We didn't go in, so we wouldn't be counted. And I know that's the case for, dare I say, most people who were sick.

[Stacie]

The part I find most disturbing is that they will gather less information from the patient to expedite the process. I can't imagine this being a good thing. What information is best left out...medical history, family health problems, medications taken, details about symptoms, next of kin contact, doctor's name, etc.? I think treatment can become overly complicated without proper information to put the symptoms in context, and be able to contact regular physicians and family members.

[Scuff]

The article said 100 people died. That's terrible for those 100 people and those that loved them, but how does that consitute a national emergency?

[LauraGB]

The article said 100 people died. That's terrible for those 100 people and those that loved them, but how does that consitute a national emergency?

1000 people, about 100 of which were children.

[mom31257]

My dh had flu at the end of September. The doctor told him he had type A, and that there's been a lot of media hype about H1N1, so I'm not sure they tested for H1N1 or not. He treated him like he would for any other flu. I think H1N1 is a subvirus of type A, isn't it? Would it show up as type A on a regular flu test?

 

What upset me the most was my dh didn't go to the doctor until the 4th day(needed a doctor's excuse for work), yet they prescribed Tamiflu. It says on the material from the pharmacy to take it within 1-2 days of symptoms. If there is a shortage, then maybe it's because of situations like that. The kids got sick, too, but I only took my ds because he sounded like it was getting in his chest. He did have the flu (had symptoms for 5 days), and they tried to prescribe Tamiflu. I turned it down. I felt like it wouldn't help at that point.

[Scuff]

Oops, read that wrong.

[cdrumm4448]

"The government doesn't test everyone to confirm swine flu so it doesn't have an exact count."

 

Since it sounds like no one is being tested, they are just guessing as to how many people have H1N1. I don't make health decisions based on someone else's "guess". According to Mercola's website, this whole thing is totally overblown. According to a printable flyer:

 

1 Multi-dose vials of both seasonal and injectable H1N1 swine flu vaccines contain mercury, which is a known neurotoxin.

 

2 Some swine flu vaccines contain formaldehyde and exposure to it has been shown to increae the risk of developing certain cancers.

 

3 It is unknown whether H1N1 swine flu vaccine is safe to give to all pregnant women, children and adults, especially if they are chronically ill or sick at the time of vaccination.

 

4 There was an increased risk of developing Guilain-Barre Syndrome, a sometimes fatal inflammation of the nerves, after swine flu vaccination in 1976.

 

5 GBS and brain inflammation has been reported after seasonal influenza vaccination.

 

6 H1N1 swine flu vaccines have not been evaluated for the ability to cause cancer, damage genes or impair fertility.

 

7 It is not know whether H1N1 swine flu vaccines can harm the fetus if given to a pregnant woman.

 

8 One H1N1 swine flu vaccine manufacturer product insert states that immune response and safety was evaluated "in 31 children between the ages of 6-26 months."

 

9 The live virus nasal spray H1N1 swine flu vaccine is not recommended for pregnant women, children under age two or anyone with a history of asmatha.

 

10 The H1N1 swine influenza has not been associated with more serious disease or more deaths than seasonal influenza strains that have circulated in the past few decades.

 

Also according to Mercola's website, the CDC claims that H1N1 is so radically different from the regular flu, but then says the vaccination is safe because it's so similar to the one we use for regular flu. Sounds like a contradiction to me. We will not be getting any of the vaccinations. My children and I take daily probiotics, supplement with vitamin D, get exercise, eat healthy, organic food (mostly), and practice good hygiene. If anyone looks like they're starting to come down with anything, we push oil of oregano every hour until it's gone (usually by the end of the day). Oil of oregano is my "go-to" supplement when we suspect illness. Hasn't failed us in 2 years.

[lovetobehome]

I would recommend the videos AND the text here:

CBS Reveals that Swine Flu Cases Seriously Overestimated

http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2009/10/24/CBS-Reveals-that-Swine-Flu-Cases-Seriously-Overestimated.aspx

 

I am not worried at all about swine flu; we will just practice good hygiene, rinse with salt water each night, and eat well. :-)

[Guest janainaz]

My neighbor has three boys (10, 7, and 6). All three of her boys were sick with the Swine flu (according to their school nurse - she did some nasal swab test). My neighbor told me that other than one of her boys having a problem with vomiting (he needed some medication) and all three of them running higher than normal fevers, it was not that bad.

 

I know a lot of kids that have been sick lately, but so far it seems that they are all recovering just fine.

[Tree House Academy]

Vent: I am so totally confused about this whole H1N1 thing. When I took my 13 yos to the Dr. last night for flu symptoms, she told me no one is testing for it anymore-- that anyone with flu symptoms is assumed to have H1N1. A friend who is a nurse at a local ER told me the same thing. If this is being done all across the country, how does anyone have *any* idea how many people have H1N1?

 

The pediatrician also told me that she encourages the vaccination, but that their office wouldn't be getting any-- kids will get them in school. Since my dc are homeschooled, she said I would have to find community clinics. I asked her about kids 10 and under having to get two vaccinations 3 weeks apart, and asked, "So I am supposed to find two community clinics that are three weeks apart??" Not likely when almost every one in my area is being cancelled because they don't have any vaccines to offer, and hundreds of people are being turned away when one is held. And are the schools all giving two doses, three weeks apart, to kids under 10? Her reply, "Well, who knows if there will even be enough vaccine to give any of the kids two doses?" :confused: She told me not to worry about getting the vaccine, because my family may have already had it anyway, and the cases she's seen haven't been very serious.

 

I just think the whole thing is a BIG MESS. There is so much bad information out there, I don't even know where to look for anything accurate. I think we're just going to forget about the vaccines, stay home as much as possible, and hope for the best.

 

AMEN! I just posted a rant about this myself!!!

[Quiver0f10]

I was sick last week ( not flu) and went to the Dr. They tested me for the flu anyways and I asked the nurse how many people are testing postivie for swine flu. She said they aren't testing for swine but anyone who test positive for A is assumed to have swine and they will treat it as swine. So I have no idea how they are getting the numbers they are coming up with.

[sthompson]

I just heard today that some offices are not testing for swine flu because of the way the swab is done. The swab goes up the nose and around down into the throat. Very uncomfortable for anyone, let alone children. So the findings are definintly going to be off. Not good enough figures for me to have the vaccine.

[Erica in PA]

Yes, this is another thing that confuses me. My sil's pediatrician told her that her son should have the injection rather than the nasal spray because she noted on his chart that that he has asthmatic reactions to colds in the past. This is not something that the average school student has listed on his/her school record-- and yet all of the students in schools in our area are getting the nasal spray. What about all the children like my nephew who should have the injection?? Is anyone looking into these sorts of things and differentiating between who should have which type of immunization? And now medical information is going to be glossed over even more?

 

It just doesn't mesh, all this information that is being presented to us. Everything is a contradiction. On the one hand, we're being told, "Everyone must be immunized against this terrible threat!" But then we're told, "There's not enough for everyone, but don't worry, it's not that serious." We're told there are many, many people affected, but then we learn that hospitals and doctors aren't keeping any track of how many people have it. We're told that certain people should have certain vaccination-types, but then schools and clinics are giving the same form to everyone. It just seems that everything I've heard, I've also heard that same fact completely contradicted by another fact.

 

If the government and health care organizations want us to take their warnings seriously, they are going about it the wrong way. They are not inspiring any sort of trust with the way information is being presented to the public.

[Erica in PA]

Who knows if we just were sick w/the regular flu a week ago, or if they should add 3 more to thier roster? We didn't go in, so we wouldn't be counted. And I know that's the case for, dare I say, most people who were sick.

 

We *did* go in, and we still won't be counted. Nor will anyone who visits our local ER, according to my friend who works there, unless they are sick enough to be admitted. Only then will they be tested, and their results counted. So they are only counting people sick enough to be hospitalized?

 

My friend also said that she treated a baby in the ER for flu symptoms, who had been immunized just a week before. Although fairly seriously ill, the baby wasn't admitted, so there goes another statistic that won't be counted. :confused:

[Erica in PA]

My dh had flu at the end of September. The doctor told him he had type A, and that there's been a lot of media hype about H1N1, so I'm not sure they tested for H1N1 or not. He treated him like he would for any other flu. I think H1N1 is a subvirus of type A, isn't it? Would it show up as type A on a regular flu test?

 

What upset me the most was my dh didn't go to the doctor until the 4th day(needed a doctor's excuse for work), yet they prescribed Tamiflu. It says on the material from the pharmacy to take it within 1-2 days of symptoms. If there is a shortage, then maybe it's because of situations like that. The kids got sick, too, but I only took my ds because he sounded like it was getting in his chest. He did have the flu (had symptoms for 5 days), and they tried to prescribe Tamiflu. I turned it down. I felt like it wouldn't help at that point.

 

Ha, and I had the exact opposite!!! I specifically took my ds to the dr. yesterday because it was within 48 hours of his first symptoms and I wanted him to get the Tamiflu, and the dr. refused to give him a prescription because they were "saving it for the most extreme cases." How extreme does a case usually get within 48 hours from the first symptom? So ds was within the time frame, and they wouldn't give it to him, and your dh was outside of it, and they tried to give it anyway!? :001_huh:

[LauraGB]

Although fairly seriously ill, the baby wasn't admitted, so there goes another statistic that won't be counted. :confused:

 

See, there's something odd going on. Our gov't researches EVERYTHING. Our tax dollars go to fund researches for the most ... questionable...things. Medical information is harvested by someone somewhere who will research the living snot out of it and use the data. But in the face of a pandemic of astronomical proportions, they stop collecting information? The stop testing? Take the test vaccine if we can get it to you?

 

I'm not sure what's going on, and I don't have any truly legitimate theories, but it just seems really off to me.

[TN Mama]

Yes, this is another thing that confuses me. My sil's pediatrician told her that her son should have the injection rather than the nasal spray because she noted on his chart that that he has asthmatic reactions to colds in the past. This is not something that the average school student has listed on his/her school record-- and yet all of the students in schools in our area are getting the nasal spray. What about all the children like my nephew who should have the injection?? Is anyone looking into these sorts of things and differentiating between who should have which type of immunization? And now medical information is going to be glossed over even more?

 

 

 

A parent has to sign a consent form before a child can get a vaccine at school. I just wouldn't sign the form because I know my daughter's health history and know the flumist is not something she can have because of breathing issues.

 

ETA: The consent form that was sent home last year specifically asked about breathing issues.

[LizzyBee]

Yes, this is another thing that confuses me. My sil's pediatrician told her that her son should have the injection rather than the nasal spray because she noted on his chart that that he has asthmatic reactions to colds in the past. This is not something that the average school student has listed on his/her school record-- and yet all of the students in schools in our area are getting the nasal spray. What about all the children like my nephew who should have the injection?? Is anyone looking into these sorts of things and differentiating between who should have which type of immunization? And now medical information is going to be glossed over even more?

 

My oldest dd has asthma, and it's definitely in her school records. A medical hx is part of the enrollment package for ps here.

 

More importantly, dd's school emailed a notice about the vac (mist) being available and said that if you want your child to have the vac, you have to come in and sign a permission slip. I knew my dd couldn't have the mist, so we didn't give permission. I assume it's the same in all schools - kids are not given the vac without parental permission.

[Tree House Academy]

Are you all a as frustrated with this as I am? They are telling us all these horror stories, but no facts. If only 1000 people have died out of "millions" and 100 children - 70-80% of which had underlying conditions - when they are saying 1 in every 5 kids have been infected....UMMM? Are those truly big numbers? I mean, I get it...younger people are more prone to it, 20-30% of the kids that died had NO underlying conditions. BUT do we know how these kids were cared for? Do we know if they received Tamiflu? Could death have even been CAUSED by tamiflu in some cases? Do we know if the parents were attentive? Do we know if they went to the doctor at all? And the list goes on. It is scary to read that even 1 or 2 kids died from some disease, but is it mass hysteria scary when we don't even know all of the surrounding conditions?

 

Same for adults. My personal theory on why people my age are dying from this is that we are the LAST ones to take care of ourselves. If my kids get sick, I generally am on the phone with the dr. If I get sick, it has to get pretty bad before I will even consider seeing a doctor. If most 24-65 year olds are this way, the I am not shocked that 55% of those 900 adult deaths were people my age. We realize that is about 500 people, right...and that, of those 500 people, a good percentage had underlying health conditions. Now I am starting to wonder if we are all running out to get the vaccine, essentially, because about 300 healthy people (out of MILLIONS) died from a virus.

 

I have been learning all I can about this disease...and there was a time I was literally terrified of it. Now I am starting to see the inconsistencies and feel very - um - mislead.

[AuntieM]

The part I find most disturbing is that they will gather less information from the patient to expedite the process. I can't imagine this being a good thing. What information is best left out...medical history, family health problems, medications taken, details about symptoms, next of kin contact, doctor's name, etc.? I think treatment can become overly complicated without proper information to put the symptoms in context, and be able to contact regular physicians and family members.

 

Admittedly, this is my own reading between the lines, but I interpreted this as a way to get the shot to non-US citizens.

[Renai]

Yes, this is another thing that confuses me. My sil's pediatrician told her that her son should have the injection rather than the nasal spray because she noted on his chart that that he has asthmatic reactions to colds in the past. This is not something that the average school student has listed on his/her school record-- and yet all of the students in schools in our area are getting the nasal spray. What about all the children like my nephew who should have the injection?? Is anyone looking into these sorts of things and differentiating between who should have which type of immunization? And now medical information is going to be glossed over even more?

 

The permission slips at the schools here specifically asks about certain conditions (Does your child have/ever had.... with a delineated yes/no list). They had both the mist and the injection available, and several children received injections (at least at the school where I student teach).

[Devotional Soul]

Why would they over exaggerate and not do proper research? What is the fear propaganda doing? Who profits from it? The answers aren't too hard to see.

[Mabelen]

Admittedly, this is my own reading between the lines, but I interpreted this as a way to get the shot to non-US citizens.

 

Why would non-US citizens not get the shot? Many non-US citizens are here legally (among them MY family and I) and pay our taxes like any other US citizen. But, let's say you meant ilegal immigrants, still, are they any less contagious because of their migratory status?

[AuntieM]

Why would non-US citizens not get the shot? Many non-US citizens are here legally (among them MY family and I) and pay our taxes like any other US citizen. But, let's say you meant ilegal immigrants, still, are they any less contagious because of their migratory status?

 

Yes, I guess I meant to say illegal aliens, and was trying to come up with a less politically charged way to say it. Failed at that, I guess! I certainly meant no offense by the term I selected.

 

I also never stated or meant to imply that anyone was nondeserving, should they truly wish to receive the vaccination. I can only imagine that some may be in a difficult situation due to residency status, maybe they feel they will get in trouble if they come to a shot clinic, and making a public statement that seems to imply "fewer questions asked" may help some be more forthcoming about getting the vaccine, should they want it.

 

I hope that makes sense. I certainly meant it as a judgment-free observation and I do apologize if any offense seemed implied. It just seemed to be one item in that article that stood out to me.

[Perry]

It is true that the actual numbers are fairly low. So far at least. But from the beginning it's been clear that the pattern is different. Flu is unpredictable. No one knew, and still no one knows, how this is going to progress. As time has gone on, it is playing out to be mild for most people. I am less worried the more we see mild and uncomplicated cases. But we're still getting the vaccine, if we can find it.

[Perry]

"The government doesn't test everyone to confirm swine flu so it doesn't have an exact count."

 

Since it sounds like no one is being tested, they are just guessing as to how many people have H1N1.

 

No, they don't test everyone, but that doesn't mean they don't test anyone. There are elaborate surveillance systems in place that test everyone in certain areas who present with influenza-like-illness.

CDC

Overview of Influenza Surveillance in the United States

 

Overview in PDF version ( 38KB, 4 pages)

The Epidemiology and Prevention Branch in the Influenza Division at CDC collects, compiles and analyzes information on influenza activity year round in the United States and produces FluView, a weekly report from October through mid-May. The U.S. influenza surveillance system is a collaborative effort between CDC and its many partners in state, local, and territorial health departments, public health and clinical laboratories, vital statistics offices, healthcare providers, clinics and emergency departments. Information in five categories is collected from eight different data sources that allow CDC to:

 

 

• Find out when and where influenza activity is occurring

• Track influenza-related illness

• Determine what influenza viruses are circulating

• Detect changes in influenza viruses

• Measure the impact influenza is having on deaths in the United States

 

 

I don't make health decisions based on someone else's "guess". According to Mercola's website, this whole thing is totally overblown. According to a printable flyer:

 

1 Multi-dose vials of both seasonal and injectable H1N1 swine flu vaccines contain mercury, which is a known neurotoxin.

Thimerosal in vaccines hasn't been shown to cause any neurologic problems. But if you don't want it, the single dose vials and flumist don't have thimerosal.

 

2 Some swine flu vaccines contain formaldehyde and exposure to it has been shown to increae the risk of developing certain cancers.

Trace amounts. There's formaldehyde everywhere.

Formaldehyde

Formaldehyde is naturally produced in very small amounts in our bodies as a part of our normal, everyday metabolism and causes us no harm. It can also be found in the air that we breathe at home and at work, in the food we eat, and in some products that we put on our skin. A major source of formaldehyde that we breathe everyday is found in smog in the lower atmosphere. Automobile exhaust from cars without catalytic converters or those using oxygenated gasoline also contain formaldehyde. At home, formaldehyde is produced by cigarettes and other tobacco products, gas cookers, and open fireplaces. It is also used as a preservative in some foods, such as some types of Italian cheeses, dried foods, and fish. Formaldehyde is found in many products used every day around the house, such as antiseptics, medicines, cosmetics, dish-washing liquids, fabric softeners, shoe-care agents, carpet cleaners, glues and adhesives, lacquers, paper, plastics, and some types of wood products. Some people are exposed to higher levels of formaldehyde if they live in a new mobile home, as formaldehyde is given off as a gas from the manufactured wood products used in these homes.

3 It is unknown whether H1N1 swine flu vaccine is safe to give to all pregnant women, children and adults, especially if they are chronically ill or sick at the time of vaccination. NO, it's not been shown to be safe in ALL people. Some people will probably have an adverse reaction.

 

4 There was an increased risk of developing Guilain-Barre Syndrome, a sometimes fatal inflammation of the nerves, after swine flu vaccination in 1976. This vaccine is prepared differently than the 1976 vaccine, and is much more similar to the seasonal flu vaccine, which is not associated with GBS.

 

5 GBS and brain inflammation has been reported after seasonal influenza vaccination. But the risk of GBS associated with vaccine is LOWER than the risk of getting GBS as a complication of influenza. CDC

 

6 H1N1 swine flu vaccines have not been evaluated for the ability to cause cancer, damage genes or impair fertility.

I don't know of any reason to suspect that it would cause those things.

 

7 It is not know whether H1N1 swine flu vaccines can harm the fetus if given to a pregnant woman. The safety of seasonal vaccine for pregnant women and fetuses is well established, so there isn't any reason to think it would. OTOH, the danger of influenza to pregnant women and infants is clear.

 

8 One H1N1 swine flu vaccine manufacturer product insert states that immune response and safety was evaluated "in 31 children between the ages of 6-26 months."

 

That was sanofi, and that is just one of the immunogenicity studies. Safety studies were larger:

This randomized, placebo-controlled, multicenter trial was conducted by sanofi Pasteur to determine the immunogenicity and safety of the vaccine, given as a two-dose schedule, 21 days apart. A total of 474 children were enrolled in the trial in two age cohorts: 229 children 6 months through 35 months of age; and 245 children 3 years through 9 years of age.

9 The live virus nasal spray H1N1 swine flu vaccine is not recommended for pregnant women, children under age two or anyone with a history of asmatha.

True

 

10 The H1N1 swine influenza has not been associated with more serious disease or more deaths than seasonal influenza strains that have circulated in the past few decades.

Numbers are sort of confusing right now. But the PATTERN of disease is clearly very different than seasonal flu.

 

Also according to Mercola's website, the CDC claims that H1N1 is so radically different from the regular flu,

 

Where does it say this? It's different enough that our immune system doesn't recognize it, but it's still an H1N1 virus.

 

but then says the vaccination is safe because it's so similar to the one we use for regular flu. Everything about the vaccine is the same except the strain change. Strain changes are made every year. Sounds like a contradiction to me.

 

 

 

 

It just doesn't mesh, all this information that is being presented to us. Everything is a contradiction. On the one hand, we're being told, "Everyone must be immunized against this terrible threat!"

 

You know, I am just not seeing this. CDC is recommending vaccine. But they aren't saying "everyone must be immunized" and they aren't saying it's a terrible threat. At least I've never heard this from anyone.

 

But then we're told, "There's not enough for everyone, but don't worry, it's not that serious." We're told there are many, many people affected, but then we learn that hospitals and doctors aren't keeping any track of how many people have it. We're told that certain people should have certain vaccination-types, but then schools and clinics are giving the same form to everyone. No, this is not true.

 

If the government and health care organizations want us to take their warnings seriously, they are going about it the wrong way. They are not inspiring any sort of trust with the way information is being presented to the public.

I don't think you can blame the government and health care organizations for the media's poor reporting.

 

See, there's something odd going on. Our gov't researches EVERYTHING. Our tax dollars go to fund researches for the most ... questionable...things. Medical information is harvested by someone somewhere who will research the living snot out of it and use the data. But in the face of a pandemic of astronomical proportions, they stop collecting information? The stop testing? Take the test vaccine if we can get it to you? Because of inaccurate results, testing everyone with rapid tests isn't going to give any kind of useful information. Testing everyone with good tests is completely out of the question. They are expensive, time consuming, and can only be done in specialty labs by specially trained lab personnell. We are talking about tens, possibly hundreds of millions of tests! There is no possible way that can be done. Serosurveillance studies will help answer questions about the prevalence of disease, but they require planning and are time consuming. They don't happen overnight.

 

 

.

[Perry]

I tried to multiquote, but it's too long so I'm dividing this post up.

 

that anyone with flu symptoms is assumed to have H1N1. A friend who is a nurse at a local ER told me the same thing. If this is being done all across the country, how does anyone have *any* idea how many people have H1N1?

I just think the whole thing is a BIG MESS. There is so much bad information out there, I don't even know where to look for anything accurate. I think we're just going to forget about the vaccines, stay home as much as possible, and hope for the best.

 

1. They aren't testing, because the test available in offices is so inaccurate that a negative test (when prevalence of disease is high) is meaningless. Whether the test is useful depends a lot on the prevalence of disease. If prevalence is low, a negative test is probably real. If prevalence is high, it's not so accurate. The tests were more meaningful over the summer, when there wasn't as much flu around.

 

 

From CDC

The tables won't copy, but they are at the link.

Clinical Considerations of Testing When Influenza Prevalence is Low

 

When disease prevalence is relatively low, the positive predictive value (PPV) is low and false-positive test results are more likely. By contrast, when disease prevalence is low, the negative predictive value (NPV) is high, and negative results are more likely to be true.

 

The interpretation of positive results should take into account the clinical characteristics of the case. If an important clinical decision is affected by the test result, the rapid test result should be confirmed by another test, such as viral culture or polymerase chain reaction (PCR).

 

 

Clinical Considerations of Testing When Influenza Prevalence Is High

 

When disease prevalence is relatively high, the NPV is low and false-negative test results are more likely. When disease prevalence is high, the PPV is high and positive results are more likely to be true.

The interpretation of negative results should take into account the clinical characteristics of the patient. If an important clinical decision is affected by the test result, then the rapid test result should be confirmed by another test, such as viral culture or PCR.

 

If a patient has an influenza-like-illness they are assumed to have flu. Some (possibly most) patients will actually not have flu, but will have one of the other common respiratory viruses (adenovirus, rhinovirus, parainfluenza, etc.). There really isn't any treatment for those, and flu tends to be more serious, so cases of ILI are generally assumed to be flu.

 

When cases of ILI are low, the number of cases that are caused by influenza is low. As ILI cases go up, they are more likely to be caused by influenza. Here's a summary for 2004-2008 . The black line is percent positive. You can see that as flu increases, the percent of positive samples go up. At its highest, only about 30% of samples are positive. This is a very unusual year though, and I'd be surprised if we don't see a different pattern , with higher percent positives. Currently, it's about 37 percent. Anyway, it's probably true that much of what is being diagnosed clinically in outpatients isn't influenza.

 

 

 

 

 

 

2. I agree that there is an enormous amount of bad information. I do not believe that the CDC is giving bad information.

 

 

:iagree: If no one is being tested, if people are told not to come in to the hospital, how in the world can there even be accurate numbers? Who knows if we just were sick w/the regular flu a week ago, or if they should add 3 more to thier roster? We didn't go in, so we wouldn't be counted. And I know that's the case for, dare I say, most people who were sick.

Well, there CAN'T be accurate numbers, but this is nothing new. We've always had to rely on estimates and surveillance data, because it would be impossible to count all cases. Most people with ILI aren't going to the doctor, and wouldn't even if it was recommended that everyone with symptoms be seen.

[Erica in PA]

See, there's something odd going on. Our gov't researches EVERYTHING. Our tax dollars go to fund researches for the most ... questionable...things. Medical information is harvested by someone somewhere who will research the living snot out of it and use the data. But in the face of a pandemic of astronomical proportions, they stop collecting information? The stop testing? Take the test vaccine if we can get it to you?

 

I'm not sure what's going on, and I don't have any truly legitimate theories, but it just seems really off to me.

 

I agree with you completely. It is very, very odd. Now I'm starting to get more nervous about what our government is *doing* here than about the actual virus. :tongue_smilie:

[Erica in PA]

.

 

When you said, "No, this is not true," regarding my comment, what were you referring to?

[Devotional Soul]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/2009/jun/21/quotes-by-prince-philip

 

Quote from Prince Philip, the husband of Queen Elizabeth:

 

"In the event that I am reincarnated, I would like to return as a deadly virus, to contribute something to solving overpopulation." (1988)

[lovetobehome]

Here is another interesting link...it talks about many things, but one of them is inflated numbers of reported flu deaths.... even regular flu...essentially driving panicking Americans to go buy flu shots and boost profits of the vaccine manufacturers....

We have never gotten flu shots, and I have no plans to in the near future. I just feel like we can't trust the FDA, CDC, or the medical community to be straight with us, because they are so wrapped up into the hype and their livelihood depends on forcing vaccines. Even well-meaning doctors and nurses have been given such biased info and flawed study results (and they usually have little to no time to independently research all of this extensively)...and the AMA will wreck them if they start suggesting that maybe all these vaccines aren't GOOD for us. In fact, I have had doctors dismiss me and my children as patients because their insurance etc is jeapordized if they have too many clients who don't get all the vaccines they 'recommend.'

It really is too bad that we can't trust our government to look out for US, instead of Big Pharma.

 

http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2009/10/21/Special-Swine-Flu-Update.aspx

 

Here is part of it, from Mercola's site:

"Nearly all of them, just like the CDC and mainstream media, use the statistic that 36,000 people die from the influenza every year. I actually wrote an article about this fallacy more than five years ago.

Interestingly that number has remained static as if carved into stone all these years.

However, the truth is that less than 1,000 people actually died from type A or type B influenza. The other 35,000 died from pneumonia. This is actually clearly listed on the CDC's own website, yet virtually everyone ignores this fact.

Dr. David Rosenthal, Director of Harvard University's Health Services, brings further clarity to this confusion.

Most of these so-called influenza deaths are in fact bacterial pneumonias -- not even viral pneumonias -- and secondary infections. Furthermore, a study in the Journal of the American Medical Academy shows that many of these deaths are a result of pneumonias acquired by patients taking stomach acid suppressing drugs.

So, for example, if we are to take the combined figure of influenza and pneumonia deaths during the flu season of 2001, and add a bit of spin to the figures, we are left believing that 62,034 people died from influenza.

The actual figures are 61,777 died from pneumonia and only 257 from influenza.

Even more amazing, in those 257 cases, only 18 were lab confirmed as positive for the influenza virus!

In my opinion, there's a vast difference between 257 deaths and 36,000 deaths from influenza..

A separate study conducted by the National Center for Health Statistics for seasonal influenza seasons between 1979 and 2002 reveals that the range of annual influenza deaths were between 257 and 3,006, for an average of 1,348 influenza deaths per year.1

Again, nowhere near the 36,000 mortality mark that has been etched into stone by those who are advocating annual flu shots.

Although the loss of even a single life is tragic, I don't think anyone would look at these numbers and say that a mortality rate of less than 1,350 is cause to label influenza a "deadly disease" that requires mandatory influenza vaccination."

Edited October 25, 2009 by lovetobehome

[Perry]

When you said, "No, this is not true," regarding my comment, what were you referring to?

We're told that certain people should have certain vaccination-types, but then schools and clinics are giving the same form to everyone.

 

They aren't giving the mist to people with contraindications. Or they aren't supposed to be.

[Erica in PA]

My oldest dd has asthma, and it's definitely in her school records. A medical hx is part of the enrollment package for ps here.

 

More importantly, dd's school emailed a notice about the vac (mist) being available and said that if you want your child to have the vac, you have to come in and sign a permission slip. I knew my dd couldn't have the mist, so we didn't give permission. I assume it's the same in all schools - kids are not given the vac without parental permission.

 

My nephew doesn't have asthma-- once when he was a toddler, he had bronchitis and had an asthmatic response to that illness. That would not be in his school records. I guess parents are expected to know which form of the vaccine their children should have and to report that accurately to the school? Has it been widely reported that any child who has had any sort of breathing problem in the past (not just a chronic problem) should not have the mist? I have been following the news pretty closely and have never heard that. My sil is the one who told me what her ped. told her. I would think it is very likely that many parents will want their child to have the vaccine, and would eagerly turn in a permission slip without considering the different types of vaccine, etc. Without a doctor's guidance, parents may not know that an event from their child's past could make the mist a problem for them, and if parents don't know, it doesn't sound to me like the schools would have any way of knowing either.

[Erica in PA]

A parent has to sign a consent form before a child can get a vaccine at school. I just wouldn't sign the form because I know my daughter's health history and know the flumist is not something she can have because of breathing issues.

 

ETA: The consent form that was sent home last year specifically asked about breathing issues.

 

That's good that at least breathing issues were mentioned on the consent form. Hopefully parents will read that carefully, and think carefully about their child's past medical history, and convey the appropriate information to the school. Seems to me that there is a lot of room for error there. I still think it makes a lot more sense for doctors who have access to children's medical records to be handling these immunizations. Why *are* these being given by the schools and community clinics??

[Vida Winter]

Here they do not test for flu unless the person is *admitted* to the hospital. I had something (perhaps H1N1) earlier this year and did not get tested. What would be the point? And now, certain assumptions have got to be made. I just don't see what the benefit of widespread testing would be; would it make a difference in treatment? I doubt it.

 

If my children were sick I'd probably stay away from the ER unless it looked like serious fever, dehydration, or other serious complications (as in breathing). And I wouldn't bother with even asking about getting them tested for H1N1.

[Erica in PA]

They aren't giving the mist to people with contraindications. Or they aren't supposed to be.

 

I think your second comment there is important. All the schools that I know of are giving only the mist, and yet there are many children who should not be given the mist. Does anyone really think that schools are going to identify every child who has had any kind of breathing problem at any time in his/her past, and make sure he/she doesn't get the vaccination? Many parents will fail to realize the issues here as well.

[Erica in PA]

Here they do not test for flu unless the person is *admitted* to the hospital. I had something (perhaps H1N1) earlier this year and did not get tested. What would be the point? And now, certain assumptions have got to be made. I just don't see what the benefit of widespread testing would be; would it make a difference in treatment? I doubt it.

 

If my children were sick I'd probably stay away from the ER unless it looked like serious fever, dehydration, or other serious complications (as in breathing). And I wouldn't bother with even asking about getting them tested for H1N1.

 

Yes, it's the same here-- if you are admitted to the hospital you are tested. Even then, it's only identified as Type A, and then assumed to be H1N1, though it could be something else. To me, the reason it bothers me that widespread testing is not being done is that it makes me not trust the numbers that are announced. I feel like I don't know how widespread it really is, or what percentage of cases turn deadly, etc. When I hear that the President has declared this a national emergency, it makes me question, "Based on what? They don't have any idea how many people even have gotten this illness."

[LauraGB]

I have a question about the chart Perry posted. It shows H1N1 statistics for 06/07...I thought that this was a new strain identified only this year with the child from Mexico. Obviously, I'm wrong. Did I get confused? Is H1N1 different from the Swine Flu? Or are the differences with this one just subtle enough to fall into that same strain?

[Perry]

I think your second comment there is important. All the schools that I know of are giving only the mist, and yet there are many children who should not be given the mist. Does anyone really think that schools are going to identify every child who has had any kind of breathing problem at any time in his/her past, and make sure he/she doesn't get the vaccination? Many parents will fail to realize the issues here as well.

Hopefully the parents know if their kid has asthma, and they have to have parental permission to get vaccinated. Even if some are missed, it's very unlikely to cause a problem. Of course, I hope know one screws up.

Comparison of the efficacy and safety of live attenuated cold-adapted influenza vaccine, trivalent, with trivalent inactivated influenza virus vaccine in children and adolescents with asthma.

 

Fleming DM, Crovari P, Wahn U, Klemola T, Schlesinger Y, Langussis A, Øymar K, Garcia ML, Krygier A, Costa H, Heininger U, Pregaldien JL, Cheng SM, Skinner J, Razmpour A, Saville M, Gruber WC, Forrest B; CAIV-T Asthma Study Group.

Northfield Health Centre, Birmingham, United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Despite their potential for increased morbidity, 75% to 90% of asthmatic children do not receive influenza vaccination. Live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV), a cold-adapted, temperature-sensitive, trivalent influenza vaccine, is approved for prevention of influenza in healthy children 5 to 19 years of age. LAIV has been studied in only a small number of children with asthma. METHODS: Children 6 to 17 years of age, with a clinical diagnosis of asthma, received a single dose of either intranasal CAIV-T (an investigational refrigerator-stable formulation of LAIV; n = 1114) or injectable trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV; n = 1115) in this randomized, open-label study during the 2002-2003 influenza season. Participants were followed up for culture-confirmed influenza illness, respiratory outcome, and safety. RESULTS: The incidence of community-acquired culture-confirmed influenza illness was 4.1% (CAIV-T) versus 6.2% (TIV), demonstrating a significantly greater relative efficacy of CAIV-T versus TIV of 34.7% (90% confidence interval [CI] 9.4%-53.2%; 95% CI = 3.9%-56.0%). There were no significant differences between treatment groups in the incidence of asthma exacerbations, mean peak expiratory flow rate findings, asthma symptom scores, or nighttime awakening scores. The incidence of runny nose/nasal congestion was higher for CAIV-T (66.2%) than TIV (52.5%) recipients. Approximately 70% of TIV recipients reported injection site reactions. CONCLUSIONS: CAIV-T was well tolerated in children and adolescents with asthma. There was no evidence of a significant increase in adverse pulmonary outcomes for CAIV-T compared with TIV. CAIV-T had a significantly greater relative efficacy of 35% compared with TIV in this high-risk population.

 

[hornblower]

I have a question about the chart Perry posted. It shows H1N1 statistics for 06/07...I thought that this was a new strain identified only this year with the child from Mexico. Obviously, I'm wrong. Did I get confused? Is H1N1 different from the Swine Flu? Or are the differences with this one just subtle enough to fall into that same strain?

 

There is more than one H1N1. Several seasonal flu's are H1N1.

This is a new flu but the same category. CBC is still calling it swine flu, some are calling it novely 2009 A/H1N1 or some variation.... But to clarify, there are more than one variety of H1N1.

[LauraGB]

And I have another question in addition to the one above. Forgive me if this has already been covered; I must have missed it. But I thought Tamiflu didn't help with the Swine Flu, so why is it the first go-to for everyone who presents flu symptoms, especially since we have been told to assume if we have flu symptoms it is probably H1N1?

[LauraGB]

There is more than one H1N1. Several seasonal flu's are H1N1.

This is a new flu but the same category. CBC is still calling it swine flu, some are calling it novely 2009 A/H1N1 or some variation.... But to clarify, there are more than one variety of H1N1.

 

Thank you!

[Erica in PA]

Hopefully the parents know if their kid has asthma, and they have to have parental permission to get vaccinated. Even if some are missed, it's very unlikely to cause a problem. Of course, I hope know one screws up.

 

I'm not sure if you read my other posts, but this issue came to my attention through my sil, whose son does not have asthma, but was advised by her pediatrician not to have the mist because of a bad case of bronchitus he had when he was a toddler, when he needed a nebulizer for a short time. The reason this concerns me, is that most parents who are filling out permission forms will not have a pediatrician's advice on this, and will give permission not knowing that there are more situations than just having asthma that make the mist a bad idea. My sil told me that she wouldn't have thought twice about that incident in relation to this vaccine, and would not have checked "yes" if asked if her son had asthma. Her son would have been given the vaccination if he were in school, in other words. I'm wondering how many others in a similar situation will be given it, as well. I also hope that no serious problems result because of this.

[Kate CA]

If anyone looks like they're starting to come down with anything, we push oil of oregano every hour until it's gone (usually by the end of the day). Oil of oregano is my "go-to" supplement when we suspect illness. Hasn't failed us in 2 years.

 

What form do you use this and how much do you give? I would really like to know.

 

Thanks!

[hornblower]

And I have another question in addition to the one above. Forgive me if this has already been covered; I must have missed it. But I thought Tamiflu didn't help with the Swine Flu, so why is it the first go-to for everyone who presents flu symptoms, especially since we have been told to assume if we have flu symptoms it is probably H1N1?

 

 

Tamiflu aka oseltamivir DOES help with swine flu (aka novel 2009 H1N1). It should be administered within the first 48h of symptom onset for best results. There have been a handful of cases showing Tamiflu resistance worldwide. If resistance to Tamiflu in swine flu becomes widespread, that would be a problem.

 

Swine flu is already resistant to amantadine and rimantadine so those are no help. FDA just approved the use of some new IV antivirals - I haven't heard how those are stacking up against H1N1.

 

Some SEASONAL flus otoh are starting to show a lot of resistance to Tamiflu.

 

hth :-)

[wulfbourne]

Ok, I did a little more digging on the CDC website, and most of the deaths that are being attributed to H1N1 are based on the person having 'influenza or pneumonia like symptoms' rather than an actual positive test.

 

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/us/

Diagnosis based on:

 

Influenza and Pneumonia Syndrome* (Hospitalizations- 21,823) (Deaths- 2,416)

Influenza Laboratory-Tests** (Hospitalizations- 8,204) (Deaths- 411)

 

When H1N1 first hit EVERYONE who had a slight sniffle was being tested. It overwhelmed the system so they decided to stop testing in the majority of cases. The result now is they ASSUME who has H1N1. According to the numbers I posted above they only have positive tests for about 38% of the cases they are labeling as H1N1, the rest they are labeling based on the diagnosis of symptoms which are almost identical to traditional flu. So I'm guessing seasonal flu deaths are getting lumped in with H1N1.

 

Declaring a national emergency is extremely premature. Its not like getting things ready before a hurricane hit's landfall. It's like getting things ready when the storm is barely a tropical storm way, way out at sea.

 

ETA: I will add that I am really glad my kids aren't in school right now though. Nasty germ breeding grounds....

[Catwoman]

What form do you use this and how much do you give? I would really like to know.

 

Thanks!

 

I'm interested in this, too. I've read quite a bit about it on these forums, but am still a little confused about it. Is it safe for everyone? Are there any side effects?

 

Thanks!

 

Cat

[Tree House Academy]

Ok, I did a little more digging on the CDC website, and most of the deaths that are being attributed to H1N1 are based on the person having 'influenza or pneumonia like symptoms' rather than an actual positive test.

 

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/us/

Diagnosis based on:

 

Influenza and Pneumonia Syndrome* (Hospitalizations- 21,823) (Deaths- 2,416)

Influenza Laboratory-Tests** (Hospitalizations- 8,204) (Deaths- 411)

 

When H1N1 first hit EVERYONE who had a slight sniffle was being tested. It overwhelmed the system so they decided to stop testing in the majority of cases. The result now is they ASSUME who has H1N1. According to the numbers I posted above they only have positive tests for about 38% of the cases they are labeling as H1N1, the rest they are labeling based on the diagnosis of symptoms which are almost identical to traditional flu. So I'm guessing seasonal flu deaths are getting lumped in with H1N1.

 

Declaring a national emergency is extremely premature. Its not like getting things ready before a hurricane hit's landfall. It's like getting things ready when the storm is barely a tropical storm way, way out at sea.

 

ETA: I will add that I am really glad my kids aren't in school right now though. Nasty germ breeding grounds....

 

So, according to the CDC, there have been 2,416 deaths linked to something that was like the flu...but they are only sure that 411 WERE actually the flu by a confirmed lab test? So where does the 1000 people dying of H1N1 come from then????