House prices

[madteaparty]

I wonder if anyone has done any work on this and can give me an informed thought. I realize this hyper-local, but I’m thinking amazing school districts within commute of large metro areas. What do you think house prices will do in next 12-18 months?

what I’m seeing here is bidding wars and houses gone within 3 days of list. Also seeing some houses that sit. There are some price cuts too actually. So, despite what the headlines and the realtors say, inventory is low but there are also not so many buyers as one would think and they are fairly limited or picky still. 
I’m trying to decide what to do with my house. We had an offer for ask but I’m strongly inclined to rent it for a year or so (have to relocate). 
 Thanks for any thoughts…

[klmama]

Before you rent it out, be sure you understand the tax ramifications of selling a home that is no longer your primary residence.  You would likely have to pay capital gains tax on all the increased value since you purchased. If you bought recently, the capital gain wouldn't be as much, but if you've owned a long time it could be substantial.  ETA: If you sell now while it's still your primary residence and buy someplace else, you don't have to pay capital gains tax if the increased value is under a certain amount.  I think it's up to $500k for a married couple, but you'll definitely want to verify.  

Edited May 3 by klmama

[madteaparty]

Thanks for your thoughts! I would not buy elsewhere no matter what I do with this one (would rent). If the primary residence test is at least 24 months in last 5 years I’d still be able to meet that next summer…

[klmama]

Is it that long?  I hope you’ll double check on all the related details!  Good luck with your decision!

[footballmom]

If you think you will return to the area to live, I would rent it out. If you don’t see a scenario where you would return, I would sell.

Many people, ourselves included, don’t love the general area where we live. But we can’t afford to sell, move and ever try to live here again. YMMV

[gardenmom5]

2 hours ago, madteaparty said:

I wonder if anyone has done any work on this and can give me an informed thought. I realize this hyper-local, but I’m thinking amazing school districts within commute of large metro areas. What do you think house prices will do in next 12-18 months?

what I’m seeing here is bidding wars and houses gone within 3 days of list. Also seeing some houses that sit. There are some price cuts too actually. So, despite what the headlines and the realtors say, inventory is low but there are also not so many buyers as one would think and they are fairly limited or picky still. 
I’m trying to decide what to do with my house. We had an offer for ask but I’m strongly inclined to rent it for a year or so (have to relocate). 
 Thanks for any thoughts…

Not all metros are created equal.  what's the job market like?    

Out of the blue offers tend to be serious low balls.  We get them regularly right now - low inventory, and we're on a desirable street.   we roll our eyes

how well a house is marketed will affect how fast it sells and for how much.   

if you really want to get an idea of how much your house is worth - talk to real estate agents.  Check out zillow/red fin (redfin at least) will bring up comps for your house.  That won't give you a solid number, and won't include how many houses are listed in your market and how long are they there - how many are selling for list/over and how many have to drop their prices.

[madteaparty]

19 minutes ago, gardenmom5 said:

Not all metros are created equal.  what's the job market like?    

Out of the blue offers tend to be serious low balls.  We get them regularly right now - low inventory, and we're on a desirable street.   we roll our eyes

how well a house is marketed will affect how fast it sells and for how much.   

if you really want to get an idea of how much your house is worth - talk to real estate agents.  Check out zillow/red fin (redfin at least) will bring up comps for your house.  That won't give you a solid number, and won't include how many houses are listed in your market and how long are they there - how many are selling for list/over and how many have to drop their prices.

It’s a stable market, NYC. We got an offer for asking price so it was not exactly a low ball. It’s just at the advice of a realtor (now fired for other reasons) we priced slightly lower then where we think it should be (he counted on it being bid up, and then went and took it off the market once an offer was on the table against explicit instructions to not do that). Bottom line is that I don’t think I want to sell right now even with a new realtor and at the “correct” price.

eta so many typos!

Edited May 3 by madteaparty

[madteaparty]

41 minutes ago, footballmom said:

If you think you will return to the area to live, I would rent it out. If you don’t see a scenario where you would return, I would sell.

Many people, ourselves included, don’t love the general area where we live. But we can’t afford to sell, move and ever try to live here again. YMMV

What I know for sure is that I won’t be living long term where we are moving (California). I would return to NYC area the moment my youngest child goes to college. But it would not necessarily make sense to retire in this house (people live here mostly for the schools). 

[Bootsie]

There does not appear to be a lot of pressure on mortgage interest rates right now, which has been a major drag on housing prices in many areas of the country over the past year.  One thing to consider is how your property taxes will be impacted if you rent the house; it varies greatly, but in my area, once you no longer receive a homestead exemption for the house being your primary residence property taxes go up significantly.  What would be the major deciding factor for me would be my lack of interest in being a landlord, especially if I am moving far away from the property.

[Harriet Vane]

Speaking as someone who has been renting a house in another state for a decade:

Renting to others from a long distance is awful, even when your tenants are nice people. It's just rough and there are always logistics. And no matter how nice your tenants are, they will NOT take care of that property the way that you do. I've seen this time and time again. It's simplest to unload the house and be free, unless you think you might move back and live in that same house again within a short time (1-3 years).

[SanDiegoMom]

1 hour ago, madteaparty said:

What I know for sure is that I won’t be living long term where we are moving (California). I would return to NYC area the moment my youngest child goes to college. But it would not necessarily make sense to retire in this house (people live here mostly for the schools). 

Aww what's NYC got over CA weather and coastline! Stay...😀

[gardenmom5]

1 hour ago, madteaparty said:

It’s a stable market, NYC. We got an offer for asking price so it was not exactly a low ball. It’s just at the advice of a realtor (now fired for other reasons) we priced slightly lower then where we think it should be (he counted on it being bid up, and then went and took it off the market once an offer was on the table against explicit instructions to not do that). Bottom line is that I don’t think I want to sell right now even with a new realtor and at the “correct” price.

eta so many typos!

That's bizarre considering the RE wanted to get a bidding war (reasonable with a desirable property in a hot market).   Yeah, don't need that crap.   I had a friend whose house was underpriced - I told to to not look at/accept offers until monday . . . they took the first offer over list. . . This was at a time when I was seeing starting houses going for $100K over list. (sometimes more, sometimes less)  I just shook my head.

1dd's house was being sold by a relo company.  They didn't care.  They had three offers, she was 5k over list.  the listed it on wednesday and accepted her offer on thursday.  They didn't take it off the MLS - and there were TEN PEOPLE over the weekend who wanted to make an offer.   

1 hour ago, Harriet Vane said:

Speaking as someone who has been renting a house in another state for a decade:

Renting to others from a long distance is awful, even when your tenants are nice people. It's just rough and there are always logistics. And no matter how nice your tenants are, they will NOT take care of that property the way that you do. I've seen this time and time again. It's simplest to unload the house and be free, unless you think you might move back and live in that same house again within a short time (1-3 years).

We had some friends who did that, and seriously regretted it.  The issue for which they moved had resolved, and they wanted to move back a couple years later, but it was just way too expensive.  Even in that two year period they could no longer afford a house in this market.

35 minutes ago, SanDiegoMom said:

Aww what's NYC got over CA weather and coastline! Stay...😀

2dd moved to CA for dsil's job.  Their plan was to stay a year.  (2dd would fly back every couple months to work a couple shifts at the hospital. It wasn't worth it to her to get a license in CA when the plan was to only be there a year.)

Within two weeks, dsil wanted out.  They loved the weather, the outdoor opportunities, they really liked the people at church - but there were a lot of other things they really didn't like . .  And then there's the prices (their townhouse - with no yard - was half the size of their Texas house and their CA friends kept saying "you live in a palace") and the politics.    They moved back to Texas after six months anyway after dsil's accident  He now works the same job - remotely. and travels to CA every other month.  

[SanDiegoMom]

15 minutes ago, gardenmom5 said:

 

Within two weeks, dsil wanted out.  They loved the weather, the outdoor opportunities, they really liked the people at church - but there were a lot of other things they really didn't like . .  And then there's the prices (their townhouse - with no yard - was half the size of their Texas house and their CA friends kept saying "you live in a palace") and the politics.    They moved back to Texas after six months anyway after dsil's accident  He now works the same job - remotely. and travels to CA every other month.  

It is insane here. This is the third time we've lived here, the first time we could afford to buy, and if we had bought a year later it would have been impossible.  I don't know what the future holds, but if our kids end up somewhere else because of cost of living, we might move to be near them.  

 

[Clarita]

2 hours ago, madteaparty said:

3 hours ago, footballmom said:

If you think you will return to the area to live, I would rent it out. If you don’t see a scenario where you would return, I would sell.

Many people, ourselves included, don’t love the general area where we live. But we can’t afford to sell, move and ever try to live here again. YMMV

What I know for sure is that I won’t be living long term where we are moving (California). I would return to NYC area the moment my youngest child goes to college. But it would not necessarily make sense to retire in this house (people live here mostly for the schools). 

You can check the home prices of the area in CA vs. the housing prices in NYC. Since in this very specific case it could be that the housing prices are such that a house swap could work...

Those two can be unique (logic defying) housing markets. 

[madteaparty]

1 hour ago, SanDiegoMom said:

Aww what's NYC got over CA weather and coastline! Stay...😀

CA is such a culture shock to me. The schools, the architecture, the vibe. It’s all so… new? I think I was a crotchety pilgrim witch in an earlier life 🤣

[madteaparty]

I would love to hear more about what you all think re house prices in 12-18 months 🙏

[prairiewindmomma]

Imo, interest rates aren’t likely to budge much in the next year. There might be a slight softening, but we aren’t likely to go back to 2.5%. We can’t afford, as a nation, to go back to super cheap money/capital. Imo, the best way to reduce inflation is going to be to raise taxes—we both need the money for social spending and it takes supply off the market. But, no one wants to raise taxes in an election year so the Fed is likely to keep rates higher.

Additionally, your local market supply numbers will give you more insight. I live somewhere with a strict urban growth boundary so almost all new housing going in is apartments. Single family homes are likely to continue to skyrocket in price as the only new SFH are built on infill. Your local market conditions will vary, but our home value has nearly doubled in the last five years. If we sell here we are not likely to be able to buy back in.

[gardenmom5]

1 hour ago, SanDiegoMom said:

It is insane here. This is the third time we've lived here, the first time we could afford to buy, and if we had bought a year later it would have been impossible.  I don't know what the future holds, but if our kids end up somewhere else because of cost of living, we might move to be near them.  

 

I was encouraging 1ds to take a job elsewhere, with a lower COL (dsil really wanted (his boss) to hire him, but that was before the job he's in now).   But he really wants to be here - and given what his rent is for a puny bedroom apartment . . . 

[madteaparty]

16 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

Imo, interest rates aren’t likely to budge much in the next year. There might be a slight softening, but we aren’t likely to go back to 2.5%. We can’t afford, as a nation, to go back to super cheap money/capital. Imo, the best way to reduce inflation is going to be to raise taxes—we both need the money for social spending and it takes supply off the market. But, no one wants to raise taxes in an election year so the Fed is likely to keep rates higher.

Additionally, your local market supply numbers will give you more insight. I live somewhere with a strict urban growth boundary so almost all new housing going in is apartments. Single family homes are likely to continue to skyrocket in price as the only new SFH are built on infill. Your local market conditions will vary, but our home value has nearly doubled in the last five years. If we sell here we are not likely to be able to buy back in.

There are no SFH being built here as far as I can tell. Just new luxury Condos that they’re trying to sell for more than SFH…

[popmom]

On 5/3/2024 at 11:52 AM, Harriet Vane said:

Speaking as someone who has been renting a house in another state for a decade:

Renting to others from a long distance is awful, even when your tenants are nice people. It's just rough and there are always logistics. And no matter how nice your tenants are, they will NOT take care of that property the way that you do. I've seen this time and time again. It's simplest to unload the house and be free, unless you think you might move back and live in that same house again within a short time (1-3 years).

So you are the owner/landlord? Your advice to us is to not do it. I'm curious what factors make you decide to continue renting a house out for a decade when you are telling others not to do it. If this sounds argumentive...that's not my intent. It just piques my interest.

Dh and I would like to move. We are also considering renting out this house in case we want to return to this area. Selling would certainly be the simplest option, but I feel like we might regret selling an asset that is potentially income producing AND appreciating in value. I already regret that we sold the condo our kids lived in while in college. 

 

Edited May 6 by popmom

[Harriet Vane]

34 minutes ago, popmom said:

So you are the owner/landlord? Your advice to us is to not do it. I'm curious what factors make you decide to continue renting a house out for a decade when you are telling others not to do it. If this sounds argumentive...that's not my intent. It just piques my interest.

Dh and I would like to move. We are also considering renting out this house in case we want to return to this area. Selling would certainly be the simplest option, but I feel like we might regret selling an asset that is potentially income producing AND appreciating in value. I already regret that we sold the condo our kids lived in while in college. 

 

Our situation is unique. We originally chose young in our marriage to move to an impoverished neighborhood in which we are in the racial minority. It was a purposeful choice in the pursuit of racial reconciliation. We lived there many years and invested our resources and our hearts into rehabbing an old Victorian fixer upper. We joined the Block Club and made a point of being involved. We never intended to be landlords. Job changes eventually led us to live in another state. We chose to rent our home to friends who feel the same pull towards racial reconciliation. Both families we have rented to are undoubtedly wonderful for the neighborhood—they made friends and joined the Block Club and they do all the things. The first of the two families have spent decades of their lives running youth programs for inner city youth. The second family works for non-profits that support inner city neighborhood development. But much as we love and appreciate both families’ commitment to the neighborhood, the house has gotten beat up. We do what we can to be good landlords—we have a local handyman who fixes what breaks and we invest each year in property upkeep and improvements. And knowing that both families are low income we don’t charge a market rate. So for us it’s a labor of love to the neighborhood and in support of people who are actively doing what we wanted to be doing when we were there. 

[Wheres Toto]

I'm in the NYC metro area and we just recently had an appraisal done for a refinance.   I don't see anyway the price of our house could go up from that appraisal.  It is ridiculously high for our house.   We are definitely super HCOL area but too many people are getting priced out of any house at this point, most of the new build seems to be condos and "luxury" apartments, but some $$$$ houses do seem to be sitting a little bit longer than they were last year.   Anyone looking for anything remotely "affordable" tries to get the inside scoop before things hit the market.  I don't see how it's possibly sustainable for much longer.