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Omicron anecdata?


Not_a_Number

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Here is a much better review, focusing on SARS-CoV-2 specifically, but many NPIs, including ventilation and filtration. Again, they did not find many real-world studies on air filtration; two of the four were using animal models.

 

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2023.0130

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The purpose of this review was to identify the effectiveness of environmental control (EC) non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 through conducting a systematic review. EC NPIs considered in this review are room ventilation, air filtration/cleaning, room occupancy, surface disinfection, barrier devices, CO2 monitoring and one-way-systems.

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19 references provided evidence for the effectiveness of NPIs: 12 reported on ventilation, 4 on air cleaning devices, 5 on surface disinfection, 6 on room occupancy and 1 on screens/barriers. No studies were found that considered the effectiveness of CO2 monitoring or the implementation of one-way systems. Many of these studies were assessed to have critical risk of bias in at least one domain, largely due to confounding factors that could have affected the measured outcomes. As a result, there is low confidence in the findings.

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Evidence suggests that EC NPIs of ventilation, air cleaning devices and reduction in room-occupancy may have a role in reducing transmission in certain settings. However, the evidence was usually of low or very low quality and certainty, and hence the level of confidence ascribed to this conclusion is low.

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we further conclude that community agreed standards for well-designed epidemiological studies with low risk of bias are needed. Implementation of such standards would enable more confident assessment in the future of the effectiveness of EC NPIs in reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and other pathogens in real-world settings. (bolding mine)

This review does include the MMWR school study, but no other school studies. The section on ventilation discussing the different studies they looked at and the quality of the evidence is very interesting.

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Somehow my reply got deleted when a new message posted while I was typing. Probably for the best. As I said, when only studies that support your conclusion count, no matter how poorly they address the question, it's pointless to discuss. It's fine for you to not be concerned about long covid or want to prevent it. Totally your prerogative.

Lol though about citing the Cochrane mask mess and then saying not to come back at you for it, when clearly you're aware of the mess 😂.

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27 minutes ago, KSera said:

Somehow my reply got deleted when a new message posted while I was typing. Probably for the best.

When I tried to embed the link to the article before, it (this box) tried to post everything I'd had on my clipboard . . . it was trying to embed research papers, cartoons, all sorts of things . . . it took a very long time to clear it all!

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2 hours ago, KSera said:

Somehow my reply got deleted when a new message posted while I was typing. Probably for the best. As I said, when only studies that support your conclusion count, no matter how poorly they address the question, it's pointless to discuss. It's fine for you to not be concerned about long covid or want to prevent it. Totally your prerogative.

Lol though about citing the Cochrane mask mess and then saying not to come back at you for it, when clearly you're aware of the mess 😂. 

I said I was aware of the Cochrane thing because it’s a waste of time to rehash the PR mess and spin. There is nothing wrong with the review.

 

“only studies that support your conclusion count”? 
LOL. No. How about you? 
 

The review I posted last is from a highly respected group and is an interesting read. Do you have the expertise in epidemiology and infectious disease to sift thousands of studies and properly evaluate their methodology and statistical analysis? I don’t, and observational research is quite tricky, so I appreciate papers like this one.

The first review (meta-analysis) I shared is led by a professor who is the head of a WHO advisory committee, so not really a slouch. That doesn’t mean every study they do is the best thing ever, but it speaks to the totality of real-world evidence right now. They mention that a review published in 2021 could not find any real-world evidence for HEPA filters and infectious disease; they broadened their inclusion of studies (maybe too much?) to have some to examine. You, I and others mentioned filtration potentially being beneficial beyond Covid- I believe you mentioned learning, I said asthma, etc. so it seemed relevant, even if people on this board are right and it’s not a great analysis.

It’s fine to think there is enough laboratory evidence already. That’s one way to look at it, but I have a different POV. I went looking and satisfied my own question: there are better studies in schools and nursing homes being done currently, and, maybe most personally relevant right now, there is no support for the sales pitch I get for UV light or a higher MERV rating than the very good system I already have,  from my HVAC guy, lol. 

 

Edited by Penelope
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22 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

China is experiencing an outbreak of some kind of pneumonia in kids. It’s unclear what is causing it, but it is affecting capacity at children’s hospitals.

Oh, I hadn't heard that. I wonder if it's post-covid related. I know so many people who had pneumonia this year. Not directly after Covid, but I wonder if there's underlying damage which comes into play with a later infection.

Article today about a young man who ended up with post-covid myelitis. Rare but not good at all - again the guess is it's to do with brain and spinal inflammation. Mackay man put in wheelchair for months by rare case of myelitis likely caused by COVID-19 - ABC News

And a Queensland researcher has done some good work in regards to the post covid brain fog, which seems to be a speeded up version of the stuffed brain cells we get in aging: Turning back the clock on brains aged by COVID-19 - UQ News - The University of Queensland, Australia

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7 minutes ago, bookbard said:

Oh, I hadn't heard that. I wonder if it's post-covid related. I know so many people who had pneumonia this year. Not directly after Covid, but I wonder if there's underlying damage which comes into play with a later infection.

Article today about a young man who ended up with post-covid myelitis. Rare but not good at all - again the guess is it's to do with brain and spinal inflammation. Mackay man put in wheelchair for months by rare case of myelitis likely caused by COVID-19 - ABC News

And a Queensland researcher has done some good work in regards to the post covid brain fog, which seems to be a speeded up version of the stuffed brain cells we get in aging: Turning back the clock on brains aged by COVID-19 - UQ News - The University of Queensland, Australia

Yes I wondered that as well. Or maybe just a mishmash of other viruses making a come back now they’ve dropped restrictions. 🤞

I hate to see what our response would look like to a second pandemic back to back that’s for sure.

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11 hours ago, kbutton said:

Hmmmm, the HCWs pictured are in full-on hazmat gear.

I'm sure (or hoping) that's because there are unknowns with the appearance of this new virus (& it's infectiousness), but given China's history of being less-than-forthcoming with information in general, as well as the previous pandemic, it's a little unsettling to be told "it appears like pneumonia" while all HCWs are running around in hazmats.

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4 hours ago, Happy2BaMom said:

Hmmmm, the HCWs pictured are in full-on hazmat gear.

I'm sure (or hoping) that's because there are unknowns with the appearance of this new virus (& it's infectiousness), but given China's history of being less-than-forthcoming with information in general, as well as the previous pandemic, it's a little unsettling to be told "it appears like pneumonia" while all HCWs are running around in hazmats.

My phone doesn’t show any pictures with the article I posted.

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4 hours ago, Happy2BaMom said:

Hmmmm, the HCWs pictured are in full-on hazmat gear.

I'm sure (or hoping) that's because there are unknowns with the appearance of this new virus (& it's infectiousness), but given China's history of being less-than-forthcoming with information in general, as well as the previous pandemic, it's a little unsettling to be told "it appears like pneumonia" while all HCWs are running around in hazmats.

The images in the Telegraph article (which is the one I think you are referencing?) are old ones from the height of covid.  I did a reverse image search and found the same images in countless other older covid articles.  Here it is in a Business Insider article from 2020.

Media like to stick stock images in news articles, and aren't often very transparent about the practice.  Our national news uses another image ( of a nurse in PPE at the bedside in the ICU) over and over and over  for various health care stories.  

 

 

Screen Shot 2023-11-23 at 1.25.53 PM.png

Screen Shot 2023-11-23 at 1.33.25 PM.png

Edited by wathe
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Eldest ds and daughter in law are quarantined..sigh. They let an old college acquaintance crash with them for a few weeks. College acquaintance is a dingbat, no common sense, and doesn't think of others until it is too late. Went out over the weekend, went to a huge concert out of state in an area with high number of cases, didn't mask, then came down with covid yesterday. Ds and dil are livid and told him he has 48 hrs after testing negative to be out of their apartment. Jerk also expected them to cook him a Thanksgiving dinner today. They gave him a hot dog on bun and some chips. And of course, they had planned to be at my mom's for T Day with Mark's mom and some cousins (we are in Bama with the grands), so they didn't have any T day supplies. Thankfully, dil had a roasting chicken in the freezer which she pulled out to thaw, and they had potatoes and carrots as well plus some rolls in the freezer. Ds is NOT a good candidate to get covid so this is extra upsetting. He and dil have been wearing N95's whenever they exit their bedroom, and have been staying hunkered down in there watching movies on laptop as well as eating in there. They hope that by relegating the couch surfer to the half bath, and running fans, using the full bath themselves, that maybe it will be okay. But they were breathing this idiot's air before he came down with it, so I think there is little they can do. Either their vaccines hold and they manage not to get sick, or they are sunk.

I would like to pound this person so it is a good thing I am not around!

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4 hours ago, Matryoshka said:

Dh finally got covid. On Thanksgiving Day. Sigh. He started coughing last night, and assured me it was 'just a cold.'  I wore a mask to bed.

He finally tested just before we headed out to Thanksgiving dinner.  Yep, Covid.  Sigh. I'm negative... so far. 

I’m sorry. I hope you stay healthy and your dh recovers 100% quickly. I always wonder when people declare it “just a cold” before there could be any way to know. I’m sorry this time it didn’t end up being the case. 

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Some good news re: the protective effects of vaccines against long covid [aka PCC or Post-Covid Conditions] from a large Swedish study (n= 590K) published yesterday in the British Medical Journal:

"Vaccine effectiveness increased with increasing number of vaccine doses before covid-19. Adjusted hazard ratios for one dose, two doses, and three doses were 0.79 (0.68 to 0.91), 0.41 (0.37 to 0.45), and 0.27 (0.23 to 0.32), with a respective vaccine effectiveness of 21%, 59%, and 73%."

https://www.bmj.com/content/383/bmj-2023-076990

 

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8 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Some good news re: the protective effects of vaccines against long covid [aka PCC or Post-Covid Conditions] from a large Swedish study (n= 590K) published yesterday in the British Medical Journal:

"Vaccine effectiveness increased with increasing number of vaccine doses before covid-19. Adjusted hazard ratios for one dose, two doses, and three doses were 0.79 (0.68 to 0.91), 0.41 (0.37 to 0.45), and 0.27 (0.23 to 0.32), with a respective vaccine effectiveness of 21%, 59%, and 73%."

https://www.bmj.com/content/383/bmj-2023-076990

 

Thanks. Makes me glad dh and I have both had 6 doses before it caught up with us!

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1 hour ago, Corraleno said:

Some good news re: the protective effects of vaccines against long covid [aka PCC or Post-Covid Conditions] from a large Swedish study (n= 590K) published yesterday in the British Medical Journal:

"Vaccine effectiveness increased with increasing number of vaccine doses before covid-19. Adjusted hazard ratios for one dose, two doses, and three doses were 0.79 (0.68 to 0.91), 0.41 (0.37 to 0.45), and 0.27 (0.23 to 0.32), with a respective vaccine effectiveness of 21%, 59%, and 73%."

https://www.bmj.com/content/383/bmj-2023-076990

 

I didn't take statistics, so I don't understand what this means re: long covid. Is the bolded saying the more doses you've had, the less likely you are to get long covid?  In a group of 100 people that received 3 doses before finally contracting covid, would 73% of them (potentially) avoid long covid? 

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10 hours ago, Shoeless said:

I didn't take statistics, so I don't understand what this means re: long covid. Is the bolded saying the more doses you've had, the less likely you are to get long covid?  In a group of 100 people that received 3 doses before finally contracting covid, would 73% of them (potentially) avoid long covid? 

The more doses you've had the less likely you are to get PCC (long covid), but the numbers represent relative risk compared to unvaccinated people, not absolute risk. They had roughly 300,000 adults in each category (vaxed/unvaxed), and during the study period only 1200 vaccinated people were diagnosed with long covid (0.4%) compared to 4100 unvaccinated (1.4%). With 3 doses, your risk of being diagnosed with long covid is 73% lower than an unvaccinated person.

Edited by Corraleno
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13 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

The more doses you've had the less likely you are to get PCC (long covid), but the numbers represent relative risk compared to unvaccinated people, not absolute risk. They had roughly 300,000 adults in each category (vaxed/unvaxed), and during the study period only 1200 vaccinated people were diagnosed with long covid (0.4%) compared to 4100 unvaccinated (1.4%). With 3 doses, your risk of being diagnosed with long covid is 73% lower than an unvaccinated person.

I read it late last night, and it’s pretty dense with findings, so I want to go back and reread. It had pretty different (and more encouraging) results than any of the other long Covid studies I’ve seen, but also what appears to be a more robust data set, and confines PCC to those who have reached the point of actually being diagnosed with it by their doctor (hence the lower percentage of people affected). Of course, not really any comfort to all those who have been 3+ times vaxed and still ended up with long Covid. Hopefully people don’t just take the 0.4% and decide that means it’s “rare” and not worthy of concern. It also doesn’t take into account increased risk with each infection.

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7 hours ago, KSera said:

I read it late last night, and it’s pretty dense with findings, so I want to go back and reread. It had pretty different (and more encouraging) results than any of the other long Covid studies I’ve seen, but also what appears to be a more robust data set, and confines PCC to those who have reached the point of actually being diagnosed with it by their doctor (hence the lower percentage of people affected). Of course, not really any comfort to all those who have been 3+ times vaxed and still ended up with long Covid. Hopefully people don’t just take the 0.4% and decide that means it’s “rare” and not worthy of concern. It also doesn’t take into account increased risk with each infection.

Good point. I've run across a few people that say they have long covid but haven't been formally diagnosed, (no insurance, doctors that don't know what to make of their symptoms, doctors being technical jerks about it because the patient only did a home test to confirm, etc) . The numbers on long covid may be an undercount. 

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1 hour ago, Shoeless said:

doctors that don't know what to make of their symptoms, doctors being technical jerks about it because the patient only did a home test to confirm

Yes, I've seen this as well. I think studies with a very loose definition are an overcount and ones with a very strict definition are going to be an undercount. I think it would be helpful to have different classifications for the different "types" of long covid. And of course all the people who feel like they recovered well but then have heart attacks or strokes due to covid-induced vascular damage aren't counted in any of that at all.

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22 hours ago, Corraleno said:

The more doses you've had the less likely you are to get PCC (long covid), but the numbers represent relative risk compared to unvaccinated people, not absolute risk. They had roughly 300,000 adults in each category (vaxed/unvaxed), and during the study period only 1200 vaccinated people were diagnosed with long covid (0.4%) compared to 4100 unvaccinated (1.4%). With 3 doses, your risk of being diagnosed with long covid is 73% lower than an unvaccinated person.

I feel like this vindicates the original vaccines that even the relatively vaccine enthusiastic people seem to now find optional (colloquially) and makes a case for making vaccination accessible to kids, but I wish I could use it to judge risk going forward after having had a mild case in spite of masking and strict protocols. I am concerned about repeat infections.

12 hours ago, KSera said:

And of course all the people who feel like they recovered well but then have heart attacks or strokes due to covid-induced vascular damage aren't counted in any of that at all.

DH seems to be seeing this affect patients’ histories and presentation at work consistently. He spontaneously commented on it, so I think it’s looking more like a noticeable thing and less like anecdata in real life encounters. His coworkers don’t really mask unless they are seeing someone with likely Covid (and maybe not then) or if they have Covid themselves (then N95 is required, not sure if they have to stay home at all now or not). I hope the facility starts requiring it again over the holidays. 

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We’ve had a weird Covid strain floating through my husband’s coworkers(I work two shifts a there a month so I guess mine too).  Our boss and two supervisors went to Los Vegas in late October and came back with it.  One of the supervisors has sarcoidosis now post Covid and can no longer do physical work. The boss caught it, did okay but still has massive fatigue and brain fog—in my 12 years there he’s never made a mistake and last week he forgot to submit payroll. Then a pregnant employee came down with Covid, probably exposure from one of the above, and developed a PE.  Another employee developed bilateral pneumonia a week after recovering and is hospitalized.  It is sweeping through like wildfire, but to be fair, nobody masks anywhere except with Covid suspected or positive patients. Most of us got a Covid booster in the last six months and everyone had the original three shot series.  I was exposed last Sunday(my work partner went home at 5pm, woke up sick from a nap at 9pm and tested positive) and woke up today with body aches and GI symptoms, so crossing my fingers. 
Definitely seeing a spike in blood clots and pneumonia overall in the community right now. I’m expecting another spike in a few weeks due to Thanksgiving.

Edited by Mrs Tiggywinkle Again
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On 11/25/2023 at 3:25 AM, KSera said:

I read it late last night, and it’s pretty dense with findings, so I want to go back and reread. It had pretty different (and more encouraging) results than any of the other long Covid studies I’ve seen, but also what appears to be a more robust data set, and confines PCC to those who have reached the point of actually being diagnosed with it by their doctor (hence the lower percentage of people affected). Of course, not really any comfort to all those who have been 3+ times vaxed and still ended up with long Covid. Hopefully people don’t just take the 0.4% and decide that means it’s “rare” and not worthy of concern. It also doesn’t take into account increased risk with each infection.

Unfortunately doctors are pretty bad for diagnosing chronic fatigue type syndromes

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Our county’s public health district put out a notice that we have enough pediatric pneumonia cases for it to qualify as an outbreak. Unlike the press about China, cough is a frequent symptom. They’ve sampled several instigating pathogens, including mycoplasma and adenovirus.

We also have pertussis going around.

 

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1 hour ago, mommyoffive said:

I think it’s too bad she chose to use the “immunity debt” phrase that’s been misused in other ways. I know she doesn’t mean the inaccurate meaning of immunity debt, but it becomes confusing for people when she uses the same phrase, as shown by reading the comments section.
 

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A vent…you cannot safely donate blood in my area because the blood bank insists you remove your mask not only for vitals (which they also do on a crowded bus and won’t step outside for) but for the actual donation because “you need extra oxygen while you donate.”

I tried to donate today at my son’s school. I was unlikely to be successful (historically I clot and can’t finish), but I have a relatively recent change in meds that might me less likely to clot. I’m so disgusted; the major blood donors in my family are now ineligible, and my son has received blood, so I would like to do my bit.

I told the blood bank bus that we already have ERs going on divert because they can’t manage illness, and they just looked at me like I have three heads.

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3 hours ago, kbutton said:

A vent…you cannot safely donate blood in my area because the blood bank insists you remove your mask not only for vitals (which they also do on a crowded bus and won’t step outside for) but for the actual donation because “you need extra oxygen while you donate.”

 

That is nuts. I've never had a problem wearing a mask while donating. How frustrating! I wonder who decided on that policy?

Just heard about a local who caught Covid twice, a month apart. How awful. 

 

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4 hours ago, kbutton said:

A vent…you cannot safely donate blood in my area because the blood bank insists you remove your mask not only for vitals (which they also do on a crowded bus and won’t step outside for) but for the actual donation because “you need extra oxygen while you donate.”

I tried to donate today at my son’s school. I was unlikely to be successful (historically I clot and can’t finish), but I have a relatively recent change in meds that might me less likely to clot. I’m so disgusted; the major blood donors in my family are now ineligible, and my son has received blood, so I would like to do my bit.

I told the blood bank bus that we already have ERs going on divert because they can’t manage illness, and they just looked at me like I have three heads.

That is very strange.    

I think I might ask to see a copy of the written policy.   (Dollars-to-donuts it doesn't actually exist, or doesn't actually say what the staff think it says).  If there really is a policy that prohibits mask use during donation, I might follow-up with a letter or email to the medical director, because that doesn't make any medical sense.  

From the American Red Cross: "The Red Cross follows a high standard of safety and infection control and will continue to socially distance wherever possible at our blood drives, donation centers and facilities. While donors are no longer required to wear a face mask, individuals may choose to continue to wear a mask for any reason. The Red Cross will also adhere to more stringent face mask requirements per state and/or local guidance, or at the request of our blood drive sponsors."    bolding mine.

For what it's worth, Canadian Blood Services has this to say about masks and donation: "Although no longer required, masks are known to help curb the spread of COVID- 19 and are welcome in our environments and available to anyone who chooses to wear them," and  "Masks, including N95s, are available to staff, volunteers, donors and visitors," and "Yes, you can wear your own mask. Surgical face and N95 masks provided by Canadian Blood Services are also available."

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Regional wastewater report is somewhat eye-popping this week:

image.thumb.png.b3fa45c98aa85376ea0c3ac348e2f44b.png

Shaded area with dashed line is incomplete data to be interpreted with caution, but tracks with the giant uptick in covid admissions we've seen in the hospital over the past 3 weeks or so.  I think provisional data will prove true.

Edited by wathe
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