CDC covid deaths

[gardenmom5]

This graph is from the CDC.    If you want to complain about their numbers, take it up with them.  I do think it is prudent to wear a mask while this is out there, but it's not as deadly as it was.

I know some are aware of a worldwide fast on April 10 (which included people from many faiths all over the world) praying this could be mitigated and controlled  - most ages peaked on the 11th, 75 and above peaked a week later on April 18th.

[Serenade]

Thanks for sharing this.

ETA:  I've notice that in my state, hospitalizations are going up while deaths are going down.  I wonder if patients are being hospitalized sooner, and if that is contributing to fewer deaths.

Edited July 15, 2020 by Serenade

[sassenach]

1 hour ago, Serenade said:

Thanks for sharing this.

ETA:  I've notice that in my state, hospitalizations are going up while deaths are going down.  I wonder if patients are being hospitalized sooner, and if that is contributing to fewer deaths.

I think it's a combo of improved treatments and overall younger people are driving the latest outbreak.

[Corraleno]

4 hours ago, gardenmom5 said:

This graph is from the CDC.    If you want to complain about their numbers, take it up with them.  I do think it is prudent to wear a mask while this is out there, but it's not as deadly as it was.

You cut off the bottom of the chart where it clearly states that those numbers only represent death certificates that had been received and coded by the National Center for Health Statistics as of that date, and do NOT represent all deaths in the period. The uptick in cases began in the middle of June, and the uptick in deaths began about three weeks later, exactly as expected. Current 7-day average is 760 and climbing — it's been over 900 two days in a row now.

 

Edited July 16, 2020 by Corraleno

[AngieW in Texas]

Remember that deaths lag hospitalization by 2-4 weeks. We were seeing deaths going down or staying steady at first. That is no longer the case.

[ktgrok]

3 minutes ago, AngieW in Texas said:

Remember that deaths lag hospitalization by 2-4 weeks. We were seeing deaths going down or staying steady at first. That is no longer the case.

Yup. People here kept saying, as the cases went up, "but deaths are not going up" as if that would stay true. It did not. We are at our highest level so far and going up on average. Maybe we didn't fast here in Florida. 

 

[prairiewindmomma]

10 minutes ago, AngieW in Texas said:

Remember that deaths lag hospitalization by 2-4 weeks. We were seeing deaths going down or staying steady at first. That is no longer the case.

Right, the drop of deaths in late April reflects the lockdown that went into effect in March which reduced infections.  Because people were mostly home in late March, fewer people died in late April. Quarantine worked. The tiny numbers now (late June, early July data) reflect that those death certificates haven't been processed yet.  140,000+ people have died so far in the US and almost 600,000 worldwide.  The vast majority of those deaths have happened since April 10. If you look at the logarithmic curve of total deaths on worldometer, it's not encouraging.  I have really been upset to see this graph and post in so many of my church friends' posts.  It reeks of pride instead of the real grieving that should be occurring because so many are suffering (economically, physically, emotionally). 

 

[Corraleno]

Here is a chart of actual daily deaths. The 7-day average as of April 10th (day of prayer/fasting) was 1918. Deaths continued to rise and exceeded 2000 for the next 3 weeks, finally coming back down to the April 10th level on May 4th, when the 7-day average hit 1920. Deaths continued to decline through mid-June because the shutdown kept cases low in states that hadn't had big outbreaks yet at the same time that the states that had recorded the majority of US deaths (NY/NJ/CT/MA) managed to seriously flatten their curves. Since states reopened in June, cases have exploded, and deaths have been rising since the low point of 515 on July 5th — 10 days later the average is 760, and we hit 1,002 today. 

Edited July 17, 2020 by Corraleno

[Bootsie]

New York has reported 430,277 cases and 32,495 deaths (7.55%)  New Jersey has 182,094 cases and 15,705 deaths (8.6%)

Currently, the US has 3,616,747 cases and 140,140 deaths (3.87%), which includes high death rate states such as New York and New Jersey.  That leaves 3,004,376 cases for the other 48 states and 91,940 deaths for the other states (3.1%).  If we had NO new cases in the US over the next four weeks, we would have to have 226,830 of newly reported deaths to reach the same death rate as what has been experienced in New York.  That would be 8,101 deaths reported per day in the US for each of the next 28 days.  Hopefully we do not see anything like that.  And, hopefully the death rate has dropped.

Of course, if there is broader testing now, and New York's case count was greatly under-reported, the death rate experienced there would be lower.  

 

[TCB]

I was under the impression that it was fairly well accepted that the number of cases early on was significantly higher than the testing available. I know our hospital was only able to do 2 tests a day for those first weeks in March.

[Ali in OR]

Do you think it makes a difference that the early part of the pandemic overlapped with flu season? Will it be more deadly in winter?

I do hope we're at least a little more experienced and knowledgable about how to treat patients.

[ktgrok]

8 hours ago, Ali in OR said:

Do you think it makes a difference that the early part of the pandemic overlapped with flu season? Will it be more deadly in winter?

I do hope we're at least a little more experienced and knowledgable about how to treat patients.

I think it will influence it, if only because more hospital beds will be needed. 

And I think that we are seeing that time indoors is bad. Right now, in the South where it is so hot, people are indoors, so they are spiking. We were not as bad in the spring when it wasn't as hot. Wondering if that is coincidence or a real thing, and if so if the north will be hit hard again once it is cold up there and people are indoors more. 

[Ali in OR]

1 hour ago, Ktgrok said:

I think it will influence it, if only because more hospital beds will be needed. 

And I think that we are seeing that time indoors is bad. Right now, in the South where it is so hot, people are indoors, so they are spiking. We were not as bad in the spring when it wasn't as hot. Wondering if that is coincidence or a real thing, and if so if the north will be hit hard again once it is cold up there and people are indoors more. 

And in Oregon, summer is when we're all outdoors. Our numbers are going up, though not as dramatically as in the south. So it's not enough to just think we're okay because it's our outdoor season; it still takes vigilance, physical distancing, and safe practices like masking and washing hands.

[sassenach]

10 hours ago, Ali in OR said:

Do you think it makes a difference that the early part of the pandemic overlapped with flu season? Will it be more deadly in winter?

I do hope we're at least a little more experienced and knowledgable about how to treat patients.

I think it will if for no other reason than the hospital systems will be more strained and we've seen that that alone increases death rates.

 

[Katy]

I thought the deaths were now lagging by 4-6 weeks, rather than the initial 2-4.  Just because treatments have slightly improved.