s/o What is the recidivism rate for sex offenders?

[Plucky]

I thought it was pretty high, but I just read an article that puts it at 14-24%. Any thoughts, experience, opinions, research?

[Stayseeliz]

Hmmm. I don't think I buy that. If that includes the sex offenders that get in trouble for statuatory rape and learn their lesson-MAYBE. But you hear so very many cases of people committing the same kind of offenses over and over. Half the time it's within days of being released from jail.

[frugalmama]

I don't buy that either - I think it is artifically lowered.

 

There needs to be a distinction between types of sex offenders and the rates. It seems they are all lumped in together - the guy who molested a 4yo and the 20yo boyfriend of a 16yo. There is a BIG difference between the two - the first is a true sex offender, the second IMO really isn't as long as it was consensual between both parties.

[FaithManor]

I don't buy that either - I think it is artifically lowered.

 

There needs to be a distinction between types of sex offenders and the rates. It seems they are all lumped in together - the guy who molested a 4yo and the 20yo boyfriend of a 16yo. There is a BIG difference between the two - the first is a true sex offender, the second IMO really isn't as long as it was consensual between both parties.

 

 

This is the problem, the lumping. The boy down the street went to jail at 19 for consensual with a 15.5 year old girl...they were both in a bar with fake ID's. So, in reality, if he didn't realize her ID wasn't fake, he had no idea she was under age. Statuatory gets prosecuted around here a lot because our county DA is just a zero tolerance policy kind of guy...so if a s*x crime comes across his desk, he's going to go for the max.

 

The 19 year old is on the list and shouldn't be...his crime will be lumped in with the likes of really dispicable pervs. Therefore, I think these kinds of statistics are very, very hard to interpret.

 

Faith

[Dory]

Here's an article in the Wall Street Journal on it. http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/how-likely-are-sex-offenders-to-repeat-their-crimes-258/

[lionfamily1999]

This is the problem, the lumping. The boy down the street went to jail at 19 for consensual with a 15.5 year old girl...they were both in a bar with fake ID's. So, in reality, if he didn't realize her ID wasn't fake, he had no idea she was under age. Statuatory gets prosecuted around here a lot because our county DA is just a zero tolerance policy kind of guy...so if a s*x crime comes across his desk, he's going to go for the max.

 

The 19 year old is on the list and shouldn't be...his crime will be lumped in with the likes of really dispicable pervs. Therefore, I think these kinds of statistics are very, very hard to interpret.

 

Faith

This is what keeps me from being completely pro death penalty or castration (chemical or otherwise). We hope that only the truly guilty are convicted, but we cannot be sure. Statutory rape where the victim is perhaps not a victim in the sense we tend to think, and those cases where revenge is the motive (ie the perv is actually the victim of a liar) resulting in death or dismemberment ;) make those solutions too much. Imho :)

[TheReader]

I thought it was pretty high, but I just read an article that puts it at 14-24%. Any thoughts, experience, opinions, research?

 

I posted in Dory's spin off thread but will post it here, too.

 

A male relative had his first victim (his younger sister) around age 10. Some 50 yrs later, more or less, he had his last victim (she was around age 7). It eventually came to light that between Victim #1 and Victim #Last there were over 150 others, mostly unreported.

 

Victim #Last came after he served a short term in jail for the abuse of his 13 yr old daughter, and there were a handful of victims in the year between his 1st release from jail and his 2nd arrest.

 

In other words, I think 14-24% is awfully low. Tip of the Iceberg kind of low.

[Parrothead]

I just think they learn better how to not get caught.

[tomelay]

In light of the original thread, the questions hat come to my mind are:

 

1) how much more likely is it that your family will fall prey to a registered, repeat offender than an unknown, new offender, even if you live next door to the former? A registrant has got to know everyone in his hood knows about him.

 

2) how much time alone do you give your children? because,

 

3) are we talking about people who snatch or kidnap, or people who groom?

 

Specific to this thread, I don't know how they could have statistical analysis like everyone else said, statutory sex crimes fuzz the data.

[Dory]

In light of the original thread, the questions hat come to my mind are:

 

1) how much more likely is it that your family will fall prey to a registered, repeat offender than an unknown, new offender, even if you live next door to the former? A registrant has got to know everyone in his hood knows about him.

 

2) how much time alone do you give your children? because,

 

3) are we talking about people who snatch or kidnap, or people who groom?

 

Specific to this thread, I don't know how they could have statistical analysis like everyone else said, statutory sex crimes fuzz the data.

 

The larger majority of children that are molested are not molested by stranger, but by people they know. There is usually grooming involved which is why so many of them don't say anything. More often than not, it's not the creepy looking guys, but the ones that everyone likes, the charismatic type. The RAINN website has a few stats for the US.

[tomelay]

The larger majority of children that are molested are not molested by stranger, but by people they know. There is usually grooming involved which is why so many of them don't say anything. More often than not, it's not the creepy looking guys, but the ones that everyone likes, the charismatic type. The RAINN website has a few stats for the US.

 

Exactly,which is why registered offenders are less of a worry for me, as a mother of 4 children.

[LaxMom]

Another vote for "artificially low".

 

I think the aggregate rate has dropped since adding so many offenses - public urination, statutory offenses, etc - to the registry. The predators have a high rate of recidivism. I suspect the ones caught up in the "zero tolerance" net, or are victims of their "victims" (ie the fake ID) probably have a recidivism rate near zero.

[frugalmama]

The larger majority of children that are molested are not molested by stranger, but by people they know. There is usually grooming involved which is why so many of them don't say anything. More often than not, it's not the creepy looking guys, but the ones that everyone likes, the charismatic type. The RAINN website has a few stats for the US.

 

:iagree: Which is why my dd is NEVER out of my sight. If she goes to a workshop, I attend as a volunteer. If she goes to an activity, I sit near enough to watch her constantly. Maybe when she is older I will allow her to do more independent activities with adults I trust, but for now this is the way it is.

 

With her ASD issues she doesn't read people well and it would be so easy to groom her without her even realizing it.

[MyThreeSons]

There needs to be a distinction between types of sex offenders and the rates. It seems they are all lumped in together - the guy who molested a 4yo and the 20yo boyfriend of a 16yo. There is a BIG difference between the two - the first is a true sex offender, the second IMO really isn't as long as it was consensual between both parties.

 

And don't forget the guy who had too much beer and relieved himself where he thought no one could see him ...... he could end up having to register for the rest of his life.

[Plucky]

In light of the original thread, the questions hat come to my mind are:

 

1) how much more likely is it that your family will fall prey to a registered, repeat offender than an unknown, new offender, even if you live next door to the former? A registrant has got to know everyone in his hood knows about him.

 

2) how much time alone do you give your children? because,

 

3) are we talking about people who snatch or kidnap, or people who groom?

 

Specific to this thread, I don't know how they could have statistical analysis like everyone else said, statutory sex crimes fuzz the data.

 

I know. I just want to feel safe. I hate that we have to worry and take precautions.

[Dory]

:iagree: Which is why my dd is NEVER out of my sight. If she goes to a workshop, I attend as a volunteer. If she goes to an activity, I sit near enough to watch her constantly. Maybe when she is older I will allow her to do more independent activities with adults I trust, but for now this is the way it is.

 

With her ASD issues she doesn't read people well and it would be so easy to groom her without her even realizing it.

 

I did that for awhile, but with my sons APD I was noticing that the only person he was learning to understand was me. So now he spends time with other adults, but only in groups and his sibling always goes with. I have had numerous conversations with my kids about good touching and bad touching and about always telling things that scare you to an adult you trust, even if it scares you to tell them. I would love to bubble wrap my kids, but I don't want them to have the trust issues that I have. I've already noticed that my daughter has picked up a few of my issues with dealing with guys.

[KidsHappen]

In one of my law enforcement classes (a good 25 years ago) we were told about 90% so unless things have changed drasstically since then I think those numbers are totally bogus.

[LaxMom]

In one of my law enforcement classes (a good 25 years ago) we were told about 90% so unless things have changed drasstically since then I think those numbers are totally bogus.

 

25 years ago, you weren't convicted and registered for mooning.

[lionfamily1999]

25 years ago, you weren't convicted and registered for mooning.

 

:iagree:

[Desert Strawberry]

I agree that "sex offender " is a largely meaningless term.

 

There are 2 kinds of child molesters : preference pedophiles, and opportunistic offenders.

Preference pedophiles go after children of their specific target age group and gender as a first choice. These are the guys who coach soccer teams and lead scout groups. They will groom their victims. They typically molested many, many children before they get caught and develop tactics to avoid getting caught.

 

Their recidivism rate is around 100%. At some point they get too old to manage the complexities, they go to prison or they die.

 

Opportunistic offenders have very low impulse control, and no apparent morals. They abuse because they can. These guys are often drug abusers (which lowers inhibitions and clouds judgement), stepfathers who abuse stepdaughters once they reach puberty, guys who commit statutory rape. This is the reason we don't leave our kids with random neighbors and people we don't know well.

 

 

Some of these guy will grow out of it. They will get the clue that just because you can rape a small child, doesn't mean you should. Kicking an addiction helps that process along. But in the meantime, they can do a stunning amount of damage.

 

Forcible rapists of adult women follow a similar pattern, which begins with fairly inoccuous acts like peeping and ends with horrific violence.

 

For these types of offenders, recidivism rates are stunningly high.

[rlugbill]

This is taken from the Wikipedia article on sex offender recidivism:

 

"A 2002 study by the United States Department of Justice indicated that recidivism rates among sex offenders was 5.3 percent; that is, about 1 in 19 of released sex offenders were later arrested for another sex crime. The same study mentioned that 68 percent of released non-sex offenders were rearrested for any crime (both sex and non-sex offenses), while 43 percent of the released sex offenders were rearrested for any crime (and 24 percent re-convicted).[2]"

[gardenmom5]

I thought it was pretty high, but I just read an article that puts it at 14-24%. Any thoughts, experience, opinions, research?

It *greatly* depends upon level. In our state, there are at least three levels that range from the brutal stranger rapist/pedophile to the teens going too far into inappropriate territory. the former will almost certainly offend again until they are stopped.

[Joanne]

Of actual pedophiles (not a 20 year old in a consentual relationship with a mid teen), I believe the rate to be nearly 100%.

 

I think most don't get caught, reported, or stopped.

[Plucky]

It *greatly* depends upon level. In our state, there are at least three levels that range from the brutal stranger rapist/pedophile to the teens going too far into inappropriate territory. the former will almost certainly offend again until they are stopped.

 

Yes, I found out he's a level II and developmentally delayed. The police officer said to be wary. :(

[tntgoodwin]

http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/how-likely-are-sex-offenders-to-repeat-their-crimes-258/

 

In debates over laws monitoring released sex offenders, it’s common to hear claims that they’re sure to commit more sex crimes. “‘What we’re up against is the kind of criminal who, just as soon as he gets out of jail, will immediately commit this crime again at least 90 percent of the time,” a California legislator told the New York Times in 1996. (Other examples of such rhetoric are collected here.) Fox News — like the Wall Street Journal owned by News Corp. — said of child molesters in 2005, “Not only are they almost certain to continue sexually abusing children, but some eventually kill their young victims.”

But as my print column this week points out, the numbers don’t bear this out. Recidivism rates vary widely depending on which crimes are counted, the timeframe of the studies, and whether repeat offenses are defined by convictions, arrests, or self-reporting. But even the author of a widely published report suggesting a recidivism rate of 52%, Wisconsin psychologist Dennis Doren, told me of the notion that all sex criminals are likely to re-offend, “There is no research support for that view, period.” Dr. Doren, evaluation director at the Sand Ridge Secure Treatment Center in Mauston, Wisc., added, “You’re not talking to a bleeding-heart kind of guy here.”

 

 

 

http://www.corrections.com/news/article/24500-facts-and-fiction-about-sex-offenders

 

A 1998 Canadian Government study by Karl Hanson and Monique Bussiere, entitled “Predicting Relapse: A meta-Analysis of Sexual Offender Recidivism Studies,” examined 61 research efforts between 1943 and 1995 with a combined sample of 28,972 sex offenders. The overall recidivism rate for new sex offenses was 13.4 percent during the average follow-up period of four to five years. Of the 9,603 child molesters in the combined cohort, the rate was 12.7 percent. Some of these studies dated back to the period when only stereotype serial sex offenders went to prison, thus weighting the results toward greater recidivism.

Edited June 12, 2012 by tntgoodwin

[KidsHappen]

25 years ago, you weren't convicted and registered for mooning.

 

That is true. That barely registered a laugh from the state police. :tongue_smilie:

[Bluegoat]

http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/how-likely-are-sex-offenders-to-repeat-their-crimes-258/

 

 

 

 

http://www.corrections.com/news/article/24500-facts-and-fiction-about-sex-offenders

 

Yeah. I am not sure I find the numbers that off myself - I think this sort of thing is almost impossible to judge by anecdotal experience. I don't think it is very easy to guess at the rates based on exposure through the media or even through experience in many professional capacities - in most cases those will only give exposure of people who do re-offend.

 

And fictional tv, even though we know it is fiction, tends to distort our impressions as well.

 

It is true we hear a lot about repeat offenders. We hear a lot about first time offenders.

 

But really, how often would you expect to hear about offenders who finshed their sentences and then went on to NOT do anything else? No one is going to report that or write about it, and those people will not produce more victims or end up in jail again.

[Farrar]

I think this sort of thing is almost impossible to judge by anecdotal experience.

 

:iagree:

 

I haven't researched the statistics in question, so I can't really say what the ins and outs are, but one person's anecdote about that horrible guy who molested again and again doesn't negate a researched and verified statistic. It's a single case.

 

The way that people grasp onto statistics that they agree with and dismiss those they don't drives me nuts.

[rutamattatt]

This is not statistical at all, but one of our best friends is a sex crime detective, and for years he focused on child sex crimes. From what he has seen, he is skeptical that a sex offender can be rehabilitated and gain lasting control over the urges/illness that lead them to offend in the first place. He is a Christian who also firmly believes in the life changing, healing power of God...but in his experience he does not see evidence of fully healed and healthy violent sex offenders.

 

He also says they aren't who we think they are (as a PP said). We always (half) joke that once you get to know this friend and he shares a little about his work, you never look at a stranger the same way. :001_huh:

 

I do feel a little sorry for those sex offenders who are 19 and with their 16 year old girlfriend consensually. Yes, they broke the law and should be held accountable for that, but I cannot imagine a worse stigma in society to carry around the rest of your life.

[JennyD]

My understanding is that the recidivism rates for convicted sex offenders is very low because their sentences tend to be long and by the time they get out of prison they are simply much older and therefore less dangerous. I would have to look for the numbers, but I believe that property crimes (theft, etc.) have the highest rates of recidivism, even higher than drug offenses.

Edited June 12, 2012 by JennyD

[TheReader]

:iagree:

 

I haven't researched the statistics in question, so I can't really say what the ins and outs are, but one person's anecdote about that horrible guy who molested again and again doesn't negate a researched and verified statistic. It's a single case.

 

The way that people grasp onto statistics that they agree with and dismiss those they don't drives me nuts.

 

just for the record, I shared the story about "the one horrible guy" not to prove or disprove the numbers, because you are right -- he's just one guy, and one single example in a pool of hundreds of thousands throughout the US, and his pattern does not prove that the estimates are low.

 

I shared the story, though, to show that even if only 1% of offenders follow a similar pattern, then it's a safe bet that Reported Cases are just Tip of the Iceberg. With that one guy, and however many more are like him, he had only 2 reported victims at the time of his 2nd arrest. But those 2 victims were, in reality, only 2 of 150+ who went unreported over a period of at least 4 decades.

 

My point was (and remains) -- number of victims/the numbers saying how many girls or boys are abused in this manner is likely much lower than actual victims, as it so often goes unreported. Likewise, number of repeat offenders, how often they'll reoffend, etc is likely equally low - for the same reason. Too many offenses go unreported.

 

I have no idea what the real numbers might be, and I do agree with the statement in the quote TNT posted that a lot depends on which offenders are included in the studies -- obviously, which crimes are followed will sway the results of how often they reoffend once released from jail. Also, the very severity of their crime which determines the length of time in jail in the first place factors in. This "one terrible guy" I'm talking about, while he had far too many victims before going to jail, is unlikely to ever have more now because his sentence was so great and even if he lives until he's eligible for parole, it's unlikely parole would be granted. The release rate then being largely those with the more minor crimes in the first place, I would think it's safe to expect that the reoffense rate of those guys is lower than if the really terrible ones were released.

 

Point being, I think it is next to impossible to get an accurate number, period. There are just too many different variables, and inadequate/inaccurate reporting measures.

[Laurie4b]

Here's an article in the Wall Street Journal on it. http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/how-likely-are-sex-offenders-to-repeat-their-crimes-258/

 

Very balanced article.