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Anti-vaxxers and the COVID vaccine.


Not_a_Number
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I haven't closely read all responses.  However, I think this is going to be hard to parse out for the next 6-12 months.  Some people who aren't comfortable today, may be comfortable with more data.  As vaccines become more available, there may be other incentives to getting one (travel, certain venues, etc).  The numbers that I saw in gallup have shifted from early fall.  I get there is a contingency that says NEVER VAX that won't shift, but the more cautious vaxxers may assuming data continues to look positive, etc. 

https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx

We also don't have a great feel for how long covid immunity will last for the average person that gets it.  I just saw a small study out of our local research U that says for most immunity looked solid at 8 months post infection.  And it's 8 months because they had a decent number of  people (few hundred) that were that far out from infection.  So potential to last longer, hopefully at least a year.  That may help contribute to a herd immunity affect to get numbers down.  That doesn't mean we'll have zero cases in the foreseeable future, but we may see this become more like the flu where those with serious immune system issues are the most vulnerable depending on how vaccines behave.  If the vaxed really rarely to never come down with serious covid, I am much less concerned.  I know we have seen some reinfections, but we still don't have a clear sense of how common that is.  Some supposed reinfections are actually relapses or long covid and that has been proven in particular genome sequences in some individuals but no one is watching that closely.  

I think as numbers come down, it will become more clear what precautions we should be taking, how the vaccine is looking, etc.  Anyway - long story short, I don't know that it's particularly useful today to try to nail down people as pro-vax or anti-vax in the short term because I think there is a fair amount of fluidity in those numbers.  80-some percent of kids are fully vaccinated, and like 1-2% of kids are not vaxxed at all.  So I think as data becomes clearer, new vaccines come online, etc we may see things move.  

That said for fall of this year, if things are moving in person in particular in indoor spaces, I don't necessarily think it will be out of line for small groups to be asking for proof of vaccination for the adults involved or whatever.  

My kids through the elementary years enjoyed a mix of both after school style activities and homeschool classes, groups, etc.  I did organize/plan a fair bit of the homeschool stuff.  As they shifted to middle and high school they were enjoying schooled friends more, though we did enjoy a teen co-op  and still stayed on the fringe of some homeschool groups for discount tickets, etc.  I will say while we were homeschooling (my youngest is 16 so technically we still are but she is very outsourced right now and will do DE next 2 years), it was also important for ME to have some social connections there and I actually wish I had recognized that sooner.  I feel like I will be starting from scratch as we move to a new normal.

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29 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

 

Bottom line is, I will not care about passing on COVID to the unvaccinated after the vaccine has been properly rolled out and is widely available. I will take care of mine and me first and not care about if someone who chooses to remain unvaccinated will be affected if my family or I are carriers. Some friendships will not continue. 

For those that choose not to get it that is one thing, but it looks like there will be some contingent who can't get it due to allergic reactions to other vaccines, some who get it but it doesn't work well due to immune issues, and of course we have no idea when young children will be able to be vaccinated. For those people's sake, if nothing else, I'll continue to mask in crowded areas like a plane if the virus is still circulating significantly. 

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1 hour ago, Pam in CT said:

re "planning" for a contingency that's at least 9 months out in the future

I'm not following when you think you'll be ready to "hang out" with people. Unless you have some priority access, by the time your kids get the vaccine -- by the time kids in general in NYC or Boston have access to the vaccine -- there will be data on how well vaccine immunity holds. 

I can imagine hanging out with people when we're vaccinated, to be clear. Before kids are. At least, if people are still being cautious and numbers are low, I can imagine doing so. 

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2 hours ago, gardenmom5 said:

this isn't necessarily an anti-vaxxer thing.  yesterday I was reading an article claiming up to 60% of healthcare workers are waiting to get it.  Not because they are against vaccines, but because it was rushed to market and a lot of normal steps in the drug development process were skipped so they could get it to market faster.  

there have been some severe reactions - and i for one, would like to know why.  I have a compromised immune system.  I sure don't want to put something in me that is going to make things worse.

It is an allergy to propolylene glycol which is one of the components of the vaccine

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1 hour ago, regentrude said:

The answer to this will be known once the first vaccinated people become infected, so the LATER we know, the better. If we know soon, it means the protection only lasts for a short time. 

If that's how we find out, then yes, I'd rather it took longer! I don't know if you can do anything else to figure it out, though. 

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45 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

I was told by my BIL who is a doctor in the UK and has taken the Pfizer vaccine stage 1 and stage 2 possibly this week is up to 24 months depending on the person. 

How can they make a prediction like this when the virus hasn't been around for that long???

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1 hour ago, Not_a_Number said:

I may need to plan ahead, though. I like planning ahead đŸ™‚Â . Like, I might start a group for people who plan to get the vaccine -- if I did that, I'd need for it to have time to grow, so it's a good idea to think ahead. 

Also, is there actually a realistic world in which hanging out in a whole crowd of people who haven't gotten vaccinated is a good idea? I had the impression that our vaccine rates were likely to be low enough that we are unlikely to eradicate COVID. So then isn't it ALWAYS going to be a risk being in those settings from now on? So then we'd have to rely on vaccines to protect us perfectly to do this, right? Or am I missing something? 

If you and your are vaccinated and taking precautions, who cares?

I had more of anti-vaccine problem w flu vaccine since it is only about 60-70% effective, Moderna and Pfizer are in the 90's.

And as to health care earners refusing-  let the people who are going to med appointments all the time and interacting w those refusing have a chance then.

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re differentiating between long-haul precautions that are sustainable indefinitely vs where the "onerous" line lies

16 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

For those that choose not to get it that is one thing, but it looks like there will be some contingent who can't get it due to allergic reactions to other vaccines, some who get it but it doesn't work well due to immune issues, and of course we have no idea when young children will be able to be vaccinated. For those people's sake, if nothing else, I'll continue to mask in crowded areas like a plane if the virus is still circulating significantly. 

Yes. Me too. Wearing a mask in crowded spaces is well within the line of non-onerous measures I can and will sustain indefinitely, as long as the virus is still circulating significantly, beyond the point where the vaccine is available logistically and financially to all who want it, for the sake of those who genuinely for medical reasons can't take it/ for whom it won't work as well.

As I said, I'm not sure exactly where that "line of onerous-ness" lies for me. I can wear a mask on a plane or inside a movie theater as long as it takes. (Will it irritate me, that lots of other Muh Rights types won't?  Yes: it will irritate me. Will my own umbrella-holding be less effective in protecting the vulnerable, when the Muh Rights cough away freely? Yes: it will render my own umbrella-holding less effective. Nonetheless I will keep my own mask on, for the sake of the immuno-compromised who know perfectly well the risk they're taking by flying and who wouldn't be doing it unless they truly needed to.)

But once we've arrived at that everyone-who-wants-vaccine-can-get-it juncture, I will be champing at the bit to go to theater again, to restaurants, to museum exhibits.  Thus my hope about non-transmissability: I hope that my going to theater (masked) won't also mean I might inadvertently transmit to someone immuno-compromised.  Given the reported up-to-40% segment of Americans who currently say they won't vaccinate, though, I'm afraid optional activities like theater will be out of the question for the immuno-compromised no matter WHAT I do or where I end up drawing my personal onerous/not onerous lines.

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2 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

That is what the Pflizer trials assume according to BIL and they use the word upto not a hard and fast 2 years and they also include the caveat individual dependent. BIL thinks more one year for most people. 

But based on what do they come to that assumption? 

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I think that I'd go with some combination of prevalence in the community, outdoor get togethers, masking, and the realization that there are risks, especially to children, to not socializing for years that need to be weighed against the risk of actually getting the virus.

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1 minute ago, EKS said:

I think that I'd go with some combination of prevalence in the community, outdoor get togethers, masking, and the realization that there are risks, especially to children, to not socializing for years that need to be weighed against the risk of actually getting the virus.

Right. There are risks to not socializing for years. I can't do this for a few more years. We've managed just fine for now, but this can't continue forever. 

But I want to figure out how to move forward. 

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2 hours ago, Choirfarm3 said:

Yes, many heal are workers in our area are waiting.

I obviously only have anecdotal evidence.  In my ambulance company we have 68 employees. 22 got vaccinated.  The two major local hospital systems are reporting around 50% of employees are choosing to get vaccinated. 
 

My SIL, a first responder, got hers two days ago and wound up in the ER with a delayed reaction(no know health conditions or allergies). Unfortunately now several people she knows have changed their mind about getting it.

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2 minutes ago, Mrs Tiggywinkle said:

My SIL, a first responder, got hers two days ago and wound up in the ER with a delayed reaction(no know health conditions or allergies). Unfortunately now several people she knows have changed their mind about getting it.

Oof, sorry to hear that. What happened? 

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3 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

But I want to figure out how to move forward. 

My point is that there isn't a perfect solution where you will be able to eliminate risk.  But I do think that outside get togethers with masking coupled with the adults in the household being vaccinated will go a long way towards reducing the risks of getting the disease while also reducing the risks associated with a lack of in person socializing.

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2 minutes ago, EKS said:

My point is that there isn't a perfect solution where you will be able to eliminate risk.  But I do think that outside get togethers with masking coupled with the adults in the household being vaccinated will go a long way towards reducing the risks of getting the disease while also reducing the risks associated with a lack of in person socializing.

I don't necessarily want to eliminate all risk, but I don't know if I'm comfortable hanging out with unvaccinated adults or not. I am sure I can resume my kids' social life without doing that. The question is whether I should. 

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2 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

I may need to plan ahead, though. I like planning ahead đŸ™‚Â . Like, I might start a group for people who plan to get the vaccine -- if I did that, I'd need for it to have time to grow, so it's a good idea to think ahead. 

Also, is there actually a realistic world in which hanging out in a whole crowd of people who haven't gotten vaccinated is a good idea? I had the impression that our vaccine rates were likely to be low enough that we are unlikely to eradicate COVID. So then isn't it ALWAYS going to be a risk being in those settings from now on? So then we'd have to rely on vaccines to protect us perfectly to do this, right? Or am I missing something? 

If you start a group for people who plan to get the vaccine, what happens if, as more evidence is available, they change their mind or there is a reason that the vaccine is contraindicated for them.  Will they be kicked out?  

 

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42 minutes ago, regentrude said:

But based on what do they come to that assumption? 

From what I've seen it's based both on work with SARS/MERS and extrapolating the data they have at the 8-9 month point on immunity looking strong for the vast majority post infection.  But I agree, wait and see.  If immunity slides significantly earlier, it will come out in the vaccine studies.  

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22 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

In my case, I plan to draw a hard line between those who do not vax because of whatever and people who have genuine issues like an allergic reaction. One is philosophical and people I will not associate with anyway when it did not matter before. Like if my doctor is allergic to the vaccine I will still go but change doctors if they do not believe in the vaccine at all.

Honestly, it's also just a numbers game. If I start with 100 people who plan to get it, even if some change their mind, I'll have a group that's like 80 percent vaccinated. If I start with our main group, we'll wind up with a group that's 20 percent vaccinated. Those are different numbers! 

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1 hour ago, Not_a_Number said:

Oof, sorry to hear that. What happened? 

About three hours later her heart rate jumped into the 160s and she was short of breath and passed out.  She does have very well controlled exercise asthma but nothing else. The ER diagnosed it as a delayed vaccine reaction. 
She still plans to get the second dose as long as her primary care doctor feels it’s appropriate. 

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Based on what is currently known and theorized, reliance on the vax could give people a false sense of security, especially when there are many cases in the community.  Absent other considerations, I'd feel safer with people who are using other measures to address Covid, including maintaining good health and taking reasonable non-chemical measures to reduce the spread.

I thought they hadn't yet tested the vaxes on kids anyway.  Waiting until reasonable test data are in seems a very reasonable parenting decision to me.

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3 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

I'm not so worried about the 95%, especially since it seems to cut severe disease even more. 

I'm more worried about how long immunity lasts, and moreover, whether anyone is going to KNOW the answer to this question anytime soon!! 

Wouldn't this be the same issue regardless of whether the folks you hang with are pro or anti vax?

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Just now, SKL said:

Wouldn't this be the same issue regardless of whether the folks you hang with are pro or anti vax?

If they are vaccinated, I would assume they are less likely to be sick and spread it to us, obviously. (This is assuming vaccination cuts transmission. If it doesn't, then the point is moot. But I am going to assume it does until I know otherwise.) 

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22 minutes ago, SKL said:

Absent other considerations, I'd feel safer with people who are using other measures to address Covid, including maintaining good health and taking reasonable non-chemical measures to reduce the spread.

I have no clue what good health is supposed to have to do with COVID. 

What non-chemical measures do you mean? I would prefer for my kids to be able to interact with other kids without masks and without distancing. I'm not at all bitter about masking or distancing, but I think that they do inhibit spontaneous play. 

I would probably also prefer people to be avoiding crowding areas and whatnot. But that's probably harder to control. 

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5 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I have no clue what good health is supposed to have to do with COVID. 

What non-chemical measures do you mean? I would prefer for my kids to be able to interact with other kids without masks and without distancing. I'm not at all bitter about masking or distancing, but I think that they do inhibit spontaneous play. 

I would probably also prefer people to be avoiding crowding areas and whatnot. But that's probably harder to control. 

You don't know what good health has to do with Covid?  I recommend you do some research on that, because it is a huge factor in who comes down with Covid and hence how it spreads.

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1 minute ago, SKL said:

You don't know what good health has to do with Covid?  I recommend you do some research on that, because it is a huge factor in who comes down with Covid and hence how it spreads.

I don't understand this comment - isn't much of the spread driven by folks who are so healthy that they never develop Covid symptoms, but are still highly infectious?

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Just now, SKL said:

You don't know what good health has to do with Covid?  I recommend you do some research on that, because it is a huge factor in who comes down with Covid and hence how it spreads.

From what I've seen, you're at higher risk of severe disease if you have certain health conditions, although not others. Do you have links that support the idea that certain conditions make you more likely to actually get COVID, other than being immunosuppressed or something? 

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Just now, regentrude said:

I don't understand this comment - isn't much of the spread driven by folks who are so healthy that they never develop Covid symptoms, but are still highly infectious?

That was certainly my impression. I'm obviously going to stay away from people with actual cold symptoms!! 

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I think the short answer is, if you are immunized, you are pretty safe, and if your child is immunized, your child is pretty safe.  If both occur at the earliest you can manage them, it matters little [to your personal health] whether or when others choose to vax.

Unless you or your child has a very serious risk factor, I would be confident enough with a 95% prevention rate + reduced symptoms in the other 5%.

That said, I don't think serious planning is possible now, other than outdoor summer stuff, which I would have allowed in summer 2020 also.

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Just now, SKL said:

I think the short answer is, if you are immunized, you are pretty safe, and if your child is immunized, your child is pretty safe.  If both occur at the earliest you can manage them, it matters little [to your personal health] whether or when others choose to vax.

Unless you or your child has a very serious risk factor, I would be confident enough with a 95% prevention rate + reduced symptoms in the other 5%.

That said, I don't think serious planning is possible now, other than outdoor summer stuff, which I would have allowed in summer 2020 also.

I feel like I keep answering this over and over again -- yes, that's how I feel about most vaccines, but we don't have data on how long immunity lasts yet and won't for a long time. So I don't know how comfortable I am relying on that. I also would guess kids won't be vaccinated for a long enough time to be a problem. 

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Just now, Not_a_Number said:

I feel like I keep answering this over and over again -- yes, that's how I feel about most vaccines, but we don't have data on how long immunity lasts yet and won't for a long time. So I don't know how comfortable I am relying on that. I also would guess kids won't be vaccinated for a long enough time to be a problem. 

I think you are making this more complicated than it is.  If the vax isn't to be relied on, then you stay away from everyone, regardless of whether they vax.  If the vax is reliable, then your being vaxed gives you a high degree of protection, regardless of whether others vax.

If the vax peters out after, say, 6 months, then the question is, can you get another vax every 6 months?  If you can, then it doesn't matter what others do.

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6 minutes ago, SKL said:

I think you are making this more complicated than it is.  If the vax isn't to be relied on, then you stay away from everyone, regardless of whether they vax.  If the vax is reliable, then your being vaxed gives you a high degree of protection, regardless of whether others vax.

If the vax peters out after, say, 6 months, then the question is, can you get another vax every 6 months?  If you can, then it doesn't matter what others do.

The point is that we won't really know when it wears off. I don't feel like finding out by getting sick, which is where I wonder whether layering protections (being vaccinated and also hanging out with people who are careful or vaccinated both) is a good idea. 

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Just now, Not_a_Number said:

The point is that we won't really know when it wears off. I don't feel like finding out like getting sick, which is where I wonder whether layering protections (being vaccinated and also hanging out with people who are careful or vaccinated both) is a good idea. 

By the time you will have a chance to get the vaccine, they will know better how long it lasts, since that won't be for many months.
The issue how long the vax lasts is really secondary (there may be regular revaccines, like for the flu) -it won't affect what you plan for the summer (assuming the vax is available by then)

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Just now, regentrude said:

By the time you will have a chance to get the vaccine, they will know better how long it lasts, since that won't be for many months.
The issue how long the vax lasts is really secondary (there may be regular revaccines, like for the flu) -it won't affect what you plan for the summer (assuming the vax is available by then)

I still feel like it's both less predictable and more endemic than most diseases we vaccinate for. 

If my kids' friends don't have the measles vaccine, I'm not as worried, because there isn't that much measles around and because we understand the vaccine pretty well. If my kids' friends and their parents don't have the COVID vaccine, I feel nervous. And I don't know that I'm paranoid to feel nervous. 

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Just now, Not_a_Number said:

I still feel like it's both less predictable and more endemic than most diseases we vaccinate for. 

If my kids' friends don't have the measles vaccine, I'm not as worried, because there isn't that much measles around and because we understand the vaccine pretty well. If my kids' friends and their parents don't have the COVID vaccine, I feel nervous. And I don't know that I'm paranoid to feel nervous. 

I understand feeling nervous. I mainly pointed out that the concern about how long the vax lasts is really not that relevant at the moment - when the vaccination is not even available to you and won't be for a long time. That's an issue so far down the road, who knows what developments have occurred by then.

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1 hour ago, Dreamergal said:

In my case, I plan to draw a hard line between those who do not vax because of whatever and people who have genuine issues like an allergic reaction. One is philosophical and people I will not associate with anyway when it did not matter before. Like if my doctor is allergic to the vaccine I will still go but change doctors if they do not believe in the vaccine at all.

To me there is a difference between choosing a doctor that I agree with philosophically about medical and health care and simply associating with people who do not share my same philosophical view on a particular subject.  My relationship with my doctor is about health care issues.

My life would be a lot less enriched if I did not associate with people who did not share my same philosophical views on vaccinations, drinking caffeine, smoking, wearing seat belts, corporal punishment, drinking alcohol, sex outside of marriage, and many other topics. 

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1 hour ago, Dreamergal said:

In my case, I plan to draw a hard line between those who do not vax because of whatever and people who have genuine issues like an allergic reaction.

How do you propose to discern so you can draw your hard line? People do not owe you an explanation of their medical conditions, allergies included. I cannot fathom how I would know whether people around me are vaccinated or not, unless they are close friends who have chosen to disclose this information. 
 

Edited by regentrude
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This may not help your coop issue, but as far as finding non homeschool community friends: dance classes, library chess club, board gaming groups, scouts, 4H, neighborhood (we specifically moved into town instead of the woods for my younger kids to have peers around), gymnastics, town sports, town summer programs, moms clubs.

You will need to do the reaching out to other parents  if you want plan outside meet ups. 

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1 hour ago, regentrude said:

I understand feeling nervous. I mainly pointed out that the concern about how long the vax lasts is really not that relevant at the moment - when the vaccination is not even available to you and won't be for a long time. That's an issue so far down the road, who knows what developments have occurred by then.

I have to pick who I hang out with right now. Because they'll probably be my kids' friends when it does become an issue! 

Look, if this is absurdly early planning for you, I understand. I'm merely setting out what my personal feelings and constraints are and am trying to figure out how to maneuver. If I decide "this is not a problem" right now, I can see this biting me later. So I'm thinking through this. 

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46 minutes ago, Hilltopmom said:

This may not help your coop issue, but as far as finding non homeschool community friends: dance classes, library chess club, board gaming groups, scouts, 4H, neighborhood (we specifically moved into town instead of the woods for my younger kids to have peers around), gymnastics, town sports, town summer programs, moms clubs.

You will need to do the reaching out to other parents  if you want plan outside meet ups. 

Yes, I'm pretty good at cultivating other moms and have always known how to do that. However, we've so far had worse luck with after school stuff than with homeschool stuff -- people are just busier. DD8 does have friends from other activities, but the friendships have been harder to maintain. 

We're in NYC, so there are ample activities of all the varieties. But correspondingly, there are also many more ambitious parents who have LOTS of activities for their kids... 

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1 hour ago, regentrude said:

How do you propose to discern so you can draw your hard line? People do not owe you an explanation of their medical conditions, allergies included. I cannot fathom how I would know whether people around me are vaccinated or not, unless they are close friends who have chosen to disclose this information. 

It does come up in conversation, for one thing. I know about a lot of our friends, although not all of them. 

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Just now, kand said:

I agree with that overall, but when their philosophical views are actually dangerous to me and mine, then it’s going to have an impact on whether and how I interact. If my friend doesn’t believe in seatbelts, I’m not sending my kids in the car with her. If she’s going to be smoking in the car with my kids, then I’m driving them, not her. This is more like that.

Exactly. If this was an abstract philosophical stand, then I wouldn't have this issue to begin with, since we wouldn't have been friends with people who aren't vaccinated in the first place. 

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26 minutes ago, kand said:

 

I agree with that overall, but when their philosophical views are actually dangerous to me and mine, then it’s going to have an impact on whether and how I interact. If my friend doesn’t believe in seatbelts, I’m not sending my kids in the car with her. If she’s going to be smoking in the car with my kids, then I’m driving them, not her. This is more like that.

Someone who is not vaccinated because of a medical reason is just as dangerous to you as someone who is not vaccinated because of philosophical views.  It is the smoking, or the lack of seatbelts, or the lack of vaccination that is causing the risk, not the other person's philosophical views.  

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If you expect your and your kids' vaxes and everyone else's to wear off at some random time, then you probably should stay away from everyone until you are sure your vaxes are up to date and effective.  Otherwise it is basically the same as not having a vax.

What kind of planning are you doing that can't wait for more information?  I wouldn't make any unshiftable plans right now.

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Just now, SKL said:

If you expect your and your kids' vaxes and everyone else's to wear off at some random time, then you probably should stay away from everyone until you are sure your vaxes are up to date and effective.  Otherwise it is basically the same as not having a vax.

Of course it'll wear off at some point. What are you trying to say here? There's no reason to expect them to last forever. 

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Just now, Dreamergal said:

My doctor shares my vaccine philosophy. I did not have to wonder about that in the country I came from as vaccination is mandatory there unlike here. Thus I will not associate with a doctor otherwise and a vaccine is a part of health care issues especially for children and mine travel to places regularly outside the US. 

Not everything is created the same. Drinking caffeine and driving is not the same as driving drunk. Someone who drinks alcohol, yes. Someone who thinks drinking and driving is ok, hell no. Neither will they get an invite to my house for parties because who wants to be responsible for such a person. Same with seat belts. I come from a country where seat belts are optional and car seats non existent. But we always use seatbelts and carseats even when people think we are high maintenance because when you know better you do better. Who would be ok with someone driving without seatbelts or carseats especially for kids in America ? None I have met and if they exist  I would not want to be friends with them anyway.

I will never ever be ok with someone who thinks corporal punishment is ok and mix with them because they may hit my kids. I believe in diversity of culture and background, but more and more I am becoming tribal in my values especially if they endanger my kids especially.

Wow, first of all, people who believe in corporal punishment for their own kids don't go around hitting other people's kids.  Secondly, a very high % of Americans have spanked their kids, so good luck with that.

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3 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Of course it'll wear off at some point. What are you trying to say here? There's no reason to expect them to last forever. 

I said some "random" time.  If we know how long they last, then there can be a schedule for boosters or whatever, at which time you can address risk the same way as if the first vax was permanently effective.

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1 minute ago, Dreamergal said:

Anti-vaxxers are usually quite vocal especially now. Previously it would not matter, now it does.

Bingo. I know who a lot of the anti-vaccine people are. It's the pro-vaccine people that are quieter around here, which is actually a bit of a problem, since it's easy to rule people out (if I wanted to) but not to necessarily narrow down to who I DO want. 

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