Coronavirus may be cyclical. What does that mean...

[Excelsior! Academy]

for the future?  Will we need to significantly alter our way of life and prepare for future quarantines?

[Pawz4me]

I think we may, until a vaccine is developed and widely available. An effective treatment would help too, of course.

[Guest]

I hope it means we will get reliable vaccines and modes of treatment before many more cycles erupt. But I do think the long range face of the disease may look like the flu. Some people will die every year. 

I do think this pandemic permanently changes many things, some for the better, probably some not. 

[Ausmumof3]

If it happens like that we will probably need new vaccines as it mutates?  I’m not totally convinced that it will work out that way.  But it’s one possibility. 

[Guest]

11 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

If it happens like that we will probably need new vaccines as it mutates?  I’m not totally convinced that it will work out that way.  But it’s one possibility. 

I have thought about that; it’s why I was wondering about the flu and if repeated flu shots over years improves overall flu resistance, even to new strains. 

[Katy]

We'll likely need annual vaccines as it mutates, like the flu.

[Carol in Cal.]

I am unclear about why 'they' think it will be cyclical.

Can anyone explain?  

What I have inferred is that for reasons that I don't understand this virus is believed to hate the heat and supposed to die out in the summer.  (How this can be true if it's a big issue in the Southern Hemisphere I do not understand.)  Is that what 'cyclical' refers to?

[prairiewindmomma]

It's hitting 90F in a lot of areas with outbreak in Asia. I think the seasonality thing is just wishful thinking.

There is some question as to how stable the virus is. RNA viruses tend to mutate pretty rapidly. If it is stable, hopefully we can have a one and done vaccine. That is probably unrealistic though. It will become like the influenza vaccine, need it yearly.  Another question is how long antibodies from getting the virus last. If they only last a year, same thing as influenza. Just because you had a strain previously doesn't mean that you still have resistance to it.

If this is cyclical, I think it will be because in the summer we are out and about more, our vitamin D levels are higher, and we're eating more healthy food. Our bodies will be better able to resist it.  We tend to be more ill in winter when our vitamin D levels are lower, when we're eating less fresh produce, and when we're breathing air recycled through HVAC.

[BeachGal]

I just spoke with the lead scientist of one of the places developing a vaccine for Covid19 this morning. He said based on how SARS and MERS behaved, it’s unlikely the virus will mutate enough to need annual changes to the vaccine.

In a few years, we will also have a universal flu vaccine roll out. It will work on most or all strains of influenza so you won’t need annual shots. Info about Flu-v in this article.

https://www.contagionlive.com/news/universal-flu-vaccine-candidate-shows-protection-in-new-trial

[EmseB]

6 hours ago, Katy said:

We'll likely need annual vaccines as it mutates, like the flu.

I am reading the opposite...

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-mutates-more-slowly-flu-011800790.html?.tsrc=daily_mail&uh_test=1_02

[Katy]

5 hours ago, EmseB said:

I am reading the opposite...

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-mutates-more-slowly-flu-011800790.html?.tsrc=daily_mail&uh_test=1_02

 

I don't disagree, I was just explaining what whoever meant when they claimed it was becoming cyclical.

[ktgrok]

17 hours ago, prairiewindmomma said:

It's hitting 90F in a lot of areas with outbreak in Asia. I think the seasonality thing is just wishful thinking.

 

It's about that here in Florida, and our cases are growing daily. (and we are barely testing - we did add a drive up option wednesday here in Orange County but you have to be over 65 and have the right symptoms). So yeah, I doubt it. 

15 hours ago, ByeByeMartha said:

If it's true that it's cyclical, then that could mean people will likely get it one way or another at some point in time. But as it goes through the "herd" and people develop immunity it will not run as rampant through our society. If it slows down this summer and spikes up again during the winter months, people who haven't acquired immunity will be facing it yet again. My concern is that we'll be dealing with this again plus influenza next fall.  But since it's supposed to be so contagious, who knows how many people have developed immunity to it already? And by fall we will have more knowledge about this virus and hopefully our hospitals will have replenished their supplies and better treatment will be available. Maybe the worst will be all behind us comes June. We can only pray.

Actually, that's exactly what models are showing - that it will slow down late summer then come back in the fall. But the main reason seemed to be that we would do what we are doing, it fizzles out here, we relax social distancing. But it is still active in other areas and then makes its way back here again in the fall/winter. Lapping the globe, basically. 

That is why some experts are calling for rolling lock downs - easing and then tightening up the social distancing restrictions as needed until we have a vaccine.