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Omicron anecdata?


Not_a_Number

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1 hour ago, mommyoffive said:

It appears to be a paid post, so I can’t finish it, but from the beginning, I expect it to be disappointing. He was one of those who seemed to decide once he personally had had Covid and done okay with it that it actually wasn’t as big a concern as he thought. Does he acknowledge and follow all the other CDC guidelines in addition to “fever free for 24 hours?”  I notice almost everyone leans hard on that part of the guidelines as a way to insist, “hey, I followed the guidelines!” but they didn’t because they’re not staying distanced from people and mask wearing for five additional days after returning. Which is now the guideline for ALL respiratory illnesses. 

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1 hour ago, mommyoffive said:

The Covid wastewater map has become increasingly split north/south, with the north still having a lot of moderate to very high Covid level states and the south being in the moderate to low. Wonder if that’s just coincidence or reflecting something. 

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14 minutes ago, KSera said:

The Covid wastewater map has become increasingly split north/south, with the north still having a lot of moderate to very high Covid level states and the south being in the moderate to low. Wonder if that’s just coincidence or reflecting something. 

Yes, it is something. I am in Wisconsin and it hasn't even gotten cold her yet.  I mean a few days with highs in the 60s, but not real cold.  I would have thought the summer wave would have passed by now.  But then I look at NY and it is so low there.  But so high here.  

I wonder if that means we are going to have a better winter?  

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1 hour ago, mommyoffive said:

I wonder if that means we are going to have a better winter?  

Seems like some of the people whose stuff we share here are calling for a lower than normal holiday wave, and others are saying the XEC variant is coming in hot and might lead to an earlier holiday peak as opposed to a wave that peaks when people go back to school and work sick in January.

I plan to party in my KN95 or even an N95. Sigh. But we plan to see one person who will be flying. 

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1 hour ago, kbutton said:

others are saying the XEC variant is coming in hot

Anecdotally I'm hearing this one is hitting people really hard, but I don't know how any individual would even know that's the strain they have with it not yet dominant. This whole thing suuuuuuuuuucks.

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10 minutes ago, Starr said:

I’m traveling to Portugal to visit friends for a month. I’m older and haven’t had a vax since last winter. Should I get one now ? 

This seems like idea timing. Do you have at least two weeks before departure? That would give you the most protection. It’s looking like Pfizer/moderna reach higher antibody levels faster, but novavax lasts longer. Do with that what you may. 

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We are getting vaxed 2.5 weeks prior to our jaunt to Alabama for Thanksgiving, then hunkering down when we get back. Since MIl refuses to mask at her medical appointments, Mark said he is not masking in her house when he gets back. We have tried so hard for so long, and her obstinence is at epic levels now. His brother told him to let it go, and no worries. If she gets it, and it takes her out or puts her in a nursing facility, no one in the family is going to blame him.

My bachelors on the SW side of the state are wearing masks again at work and when they shop or socialize outside their pod. The hardest thing for them is that youngest ds travels for work so often. Since May 28, he has been to India 3 times, L.A. 2x, Mexico 1x, and Atlanta. It is a LOT of flying.

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21 minutes ago, Faith-manor said:

Since MIl refuses to mask at her medical appointments, Mark said he is not masking in her house when he gets back.

Doesn’t that just increase the risk for Mark? MIL isn’t the only one at risk. 

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On 10/9/2024 at 10:23 AM, mommyoffive said:

Why does this sound like covering their butts for next time rather than something helpful? We have more science on masking now, but what does anyone want to bet it will be a “value” next time, not science. 

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51 minutes ago, kbutton said:

Why does this sound like covering their butts for next time rather than something helpful? We have more science on masking now, but what does anyone want to bet it will be a “value” next time, not science. 

I was unimpressed as well. 

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2 hours ago, kbutton said:

Why does this sound like covering their butts for next time rather than something helpful? We have more science on masking now, but what does anyone want to bet it will be a “value” next time, not science. 

 

1 hour ago, KSera said:

I was unimpressed as well. 

Actually, this was the  only Covid article I have actually liked. It felt nuanced.  It felt like she was saying we were not bad for thinking differently.

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7 minutes ago, TexasProud said:

 

Actually, this was the  only Covid article I have actually liked. It felt nuanced.  It felt like she was saying we were not bad for thinking differently.

Yeah, I can see that. I feel like it was more of them just saying what people want to hear rather than what they need to hear, which didn’t used to be how public health worked. Once they started understanding AIDS a bit, they didn’t decide they wouldn’t tell people to use condoms because they might not be willing to do so. OTOH, the whole beginning decade or so of the AIDS crisis was a crap show too, and this has a lot of similar mistakes. So I’m hoping it means eventually we will get there.  But oh, what a mounting toll of morbidity and disability in the meantime 😞

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On 10/7/2024 at 5:03 PM, KSera said:

This seems like idea timing. Do you have at least two weeks before departure? That would give you the most protection. It’s looking like Pfizer/moderna reach higher antibody levels faster, but novavax lasts longer. Do with that what you may. 

Well I missed that window and am sick with Covid 

 

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48 minutes ago, Starr said:

Well I missed that window and am sick with Covid 

 

Oh nooo, so sorry! Did you catch it on your way to Portugal or have you not left yet?

I hope you have a mild and short course and that you recover 100% in time to enjoy your trip (I'm unclear if you are already there or if it is upcoming).

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There was an interesting article in the Australian edition of The Guardian about the latest statistics for deaths. Covid was #3 in 2022, and dropped to #9 in 2023. The difference in actual numbers was huge. 

The main gist of the article is about the rise of dementia. 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/oct/10/dementia-set-to-become-australias-leading-cause-of-death

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If anyone else is a fan of the fantastic Ed Yong (An Immense World, We Contain Multitudes, and the most excellent of pandemic journalism), a really excellent talk he just gave at the XOXO conference was just released:

https://youtu.be/ddy5uMdzZB8?feature=shared

I watch very little in video format, but I always find him worth it. He’s as good a speaker as he is writer. 

 

 

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6 hours ago, KSera said:

I was unimpressed as well. 

Did not like this much. "Be clear what’s data and what’s values"...Public health has done a tremendous job at hiding the data and delaying communication on science when it is not a message they want to relay, while they latch on to any bit of positive news and rush it out. They have long put values over data and science (heck, I remember very well that it was clear when they dropped mask mandates because they thought that vaccines were our saving grace that Delta was able to overcome vaccination pretty easily; there was early and timely data from Asia).

 

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2 hours ago, KSera said:

Oh nooo, so sorry! Did you catch it on your way to Portugal or have you not left yet?

I hope you have a mild and short course and that you recover 100% in time to enjoy your trip (I'm unclear if you are already there or if it is upcoming).

I haven’t left yet . I can see how it goes and change my flight if need be. The fever and chills are miserable .

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1 hour ago, KSera said:

If anyone else is a fan of the fantastic Ed Yong (An Immense World, We Contain Multitudes, and the most excellent of pandemic journalism), a really excellent talk he just gave at the XOXO conference was just released:

https://youtu.be/ddy5uMdzZB8?feature=shared

I watch very little in video format, but I always find him worth it. He’s as good a speaker as he is writer. 

 

 

Ed Yong is amazing! Will have to find a time to watch the whole thing. And his "An Immense World" was a birthday gift for one of my kids a while back.

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6 hours ago, KSera said:

Yeah, I can see that. I feel like it was more of them just saying what people want to hear rather than what they need to hear, which didn’t used to be how public health worked.

Yes, and I think they are doing that to set the stage to excuse themselves from doing their job the next time around.

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33 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

Her Covid weather report is less than useful now 😞. She says “Covid is nosediving” and “enjoy the lull”, but Covid levels vary widely across states right now, with some at VERY HIGH and many at HIGH levels even on the CDC wastewatermap. If anyone uses her as their source for what’s happening with covid, they’re not going to get accurate, actionable data and may take risks they wouldn’t have had they known the actual COVID levels their area. 

IMG_1701.thumb.jpeg.9ff79108220be1ca7ebe0f71dcc4b0e6.jpeg

 

She says her kids are always sick now so it’s fine for them to spread whatever they have as long as they don’t have a fever, in which case she will keep them home. She says she will test them “if they are visiting their great grandparents” so apparently other high risk people don’t matter to her, only their own great grandparents 😞

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@KSera Your 2 points in the letter were exactly my thoughts.  I know in WI we are still high.  And then not testing her kids for their sicknesses? Wow, OK.   I am sure most people are doing that, but I didn't think someone in this area would be doing it.  Says the mom who is still testing her kids every time they get sick.

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We test, too. I can’t imagine sending sick kids out and about to infect others without testing, even if testing is imperfect.

We are on day 9 of sicknesses in our house right now, and have tested three times. We called ahead to long-awaited specialist appointments to see how they wanted to handle us. One had us mask and sit in a different waiting area, one had us reschedule to January (gaaaaah!), another rescheduled for next week, and one said as long as you’re not vomiting just come in (we masked). We had soooo many specialist appointments this week, terrible timing. 

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On the testing, I will say that I understand there’s a financial barrier for some people, particularly if they didn’t stockpile free tests. And that’s a government failure, as in many European countries, rapid tests are like a dollar each. That’s not the reason she’s not testing though. She’s not testing because she thinks it doesn’t matter to know if it’s Covid (when I know she actually has the information to know that it does in fact matter, but that’s just too hard to deal with, so she’s taking the easier path. If you ignore it, you don’t have to do hard things because of it (until you become one of the ones whose entire life becomes one giant difficult thing you don’t have the luxury to ignore  because of what started as a mild Covid infection)).

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2 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/the-dose-this-weeks-public-health-17a?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=281219&post_id=150015091&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=q2z70&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

Does anyone know what she does professionally now or who she works for? She has said in many interviews that this substack is a "side hustle," and I recall at one point that she said that she left the children's hospital in TX where she worked when she was offered a job at a public health think tank in CA, but gave no details beyond that and now, that information seems to be gone. Just curious...

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4 minutes ago, Amoret said:

Does anyone know what she does professionally now or who she works for? She has said in many interviews that this substack is a "side hustle," and I recall at one point that she said that she left the children's hospital in TX where she worked when she was offered a job at a public health think tank in CA, but gave no details beyond that and now, that information seems to be gone. Just curious...

Ah. lol (or alternatively 😭), I just found it—She works for the CDC now:

“My biggest passion is teaching,” says Jetelina, who left her position at UT in 2022 and is now a scientific-communications consultant to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 
 

Suddenly the shift makes sense. 

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9 minutes ago, KSera said:

Ah. lol (or alternatively 😭), I just found it—She works for the CDC now:

“My biggest passion is teaching,” says Jetelina, who left her position at UT in 2022 and is now a scientific-communications consultant to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 
 

Suddenly the shift makes sense. 

Yes, I saw that, too. But usually, consultants aren't permanent employees (though her adherence to the CDC's official messaging has been clear for a long time).

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8 hours ago, Amoret said:

Yes, I saw that, too. But usually, consultants aren't permanent employees (though her adherence to the CDC's official messaging has been clear for a long time).

Yes. I wouldn't be surprised if she is hoping for a position in the new administration (I can't help but think of Ashish Jha). I couldn't help but notice the subtle word choice in her last newsletter - testing before visiting the "great grandparents". This suggests that only the "very" old or "very" sick (the ones close to death even without covid?) need to be protected from an infection - making it harder for all of us to ask for accommodation for ourselves or our loved ones (who is old or sick enough)? Words matter...

And on the CDC Wastewater, please keep in mind how it is calculated for covid https://www.cdc.gov/nwss/about-data.html#data-method: ""The value associated with the Wastewater Viral Activity Level is the number of standard deviations above the baseline, transformed to the linear scale." And: "For site and method combinations (as listed above) with over six months of data, baselines are re-calculated every six calendar months (January 1st and July 1st) using the past 12 months of data." At least in my area, and according to biobot, the baseline appears to be increasing (I haven't done the calculations, but it sure does look like it to the naked eye). So wouldn't their reporting seem to help to minimize covid in the long run?

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On 10/11/2024 at 9:30 PM, Amoret said:

Pulling from that article:

Lastly Marrazzo insists that researchers cannot wear masks because “we’re still all traumatized,” and “none of us are over it.”

A moment for the absurdity of the statement that you cannot use a safety tool that very literally saved lives during a traumatic event because you’re psychologically triggered by it. It is akin to saying you can’t wear a seatbelt because you were in a bad car accident and people died. Go to therapy. Wear the seatbelt. Definitely do not project your personal psychological problem with seatbelts onto the people fighting for auto safety.

Watching people get infected and die during a pandemic is certainly traumatizing. But…masks didn’t do that. SARS-COV-2 did. The same virus you’re spreading when you refuse to acknowledge and mitigate it, despite being well-aware of the long-term and cumulative harms of continual reinfections. By claiming the mask is triggering your trauma by reminding you of COVID, you are essentially saying that you exist in a state of utter denial that COVID currently surrounds you. 

It’s doubly astounding to dare use the word “trauma” to describe the relationship of health officials toward masks while dismissing the trauma of patients being gaslit, ignored, further disabled, and forcibly reinfected by society at large- all while those who claim to want to heal them participate in stigmatizing the best prevention tool available.

…ITA!

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On 10/11/2024 at 6:30 PM, Amoret said:

She knocks it out of the park again. Hard to choose just one quote to share…

Quote

To debunk several misapprehensions, there is no special kind of person who gets Long COVID. There is, conversely, no special, “healthy” kind of person who cannot develop Long COVID. A person who has had COVID three times and feels okay is not now “immune” to Long COVID. 

Quote

 

But Dr. Marrazzo and her colleagues, instead of focusing on how to halt the spread of COVID at their Long COVID research meeting, are focused on how to preserve their psychological denial that they, personally, are special people who are not at risk of developing Long COVID. 

There is no scientific basis for this idea; it is the fantasy of the crowd, the collective delusion of people much less informed than they are, who are desperate to resume pre-pandemic life and have been fed years of propaganda about COVID’s supposed harmlessness. To participate in this public delusion rather than attempt to pop it is a social decision, not a scientific one. Marrazzo’s statement admits as much.

Quote

 

Marrazzo states that she took public criticism of the lack of masks “seriously”. She then goes on to provide an entirely unserious response, dismissing said criticism by whining, “people just want to live a normal life.” 

What, exactly, is meant by this? What population is seen as “people”, who is excluded, and what is “normal” in the construction of this odd sentence? 

Quite clearly, Marrazzo and her colleagues do not want to live the life Long COVID patients and other disabled people are now forced to live- a life of continual infection avoidance. They do not want to wear masks, be associated with those who wear masks, be seen as “disabled,” as “other,” as “sick,” “vulnerable” or “abnormal”. They want to be normal- in other words, abled and ableist.


I better stop there. I could quote all night. So much nailing it. 
 

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I was sharing some parts of the above piece with my husband this morning, and I didn’t share this one last night, but it’s so important:

“Patients are not merely harmed by the superspreader events Marrazzo and her colleagues continue to hold- although they and surrounding communities certainly are harmed by the spread of the virus itself- they are also harmed by the blasé attitude of officials which leads the families and friends of Long COVID patients to doubt the seriousness of their condition, or the need for precautions. Long COVID patients are unsafe in their own homes because masking has been so stigmatized that their own spouses, parents, and children will not stop reinfecting them. 

If the head of the NIAID declares that she cannot wear a mask because she wants to be “normal,” what hope does an ill patient have to convince her husband to buck the social, political and professional pressure he faces in public life to consistently mask? When the very public health leaders who should be stressing the importance of tools that prevent reinfections are stigmatizing them, framing them as weird, abnormal and scary?”

Bolding is mine and so, so accurate. It’s tragically common for someone with long covid to feel desperately hopeless because they live in a household where no one is willing to mask to protect them and they keep getting reinfected, with the result that their condition gets worse and worse. 😢

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Yes, yes, yes. If masking had been normalized, we would all be living in a safer environment, making lives better for all. They are the ones who decided to stigmatize masking. They proudly removed the masks in their leadership roles, with their unmasked selfies from crowded health conferences and CDC work meetings and vaccination campaigns in nursing homes. 

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Thousands of patients caught COVID in NSW hospitals last year and hundreds died, new data shows

Quote

Mr Fernando's mother was admitted to St George Hospital in Sydney's south after suffering a subarachnoid haemorrhage due to a ruptured brain aneurysm in late June 2022. She had successful emergency surgery and, for a few days, seemed to be recovering well in the ICU. But soon she began deteriorating and the hospital informed Mr Fernando that Thelge had caught COVID, most likely from one of her nurses.

 

Obviously, this problem doesn't just apply to Australia.

Edited by KSera
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