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Omicron anecdata?


Not_a_Number

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1 hour ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

Stock photo of crowds in China outdoors. 
 

image.thumb.jpeg.be2416f9317e087eceb9b3ccb4235945.jpeg

Would that be accurate on a jogging path though? That looks like an outdoor market type scenario. I did look up recent news photos which supported my guess that the majority of people are wearing pleated procedure masks, with cloth masks being next most common from what I see. Makes sense for the one masked person infected by the jogger. 

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1 hour ago, KSera said:

Would that be accurate on a jogging path though? That looks like an outdoor market type scenario. I did look up recent news photos which supported my guess that the majority of people are wearing pleated procedure masks, with cloth masks being next most common from what I see. Makes sense for the one masked person infected by the jogger. 

I was in China many years ago.  But I will say in general their public spaces, parks, etc particularly in cities are typically much more crowded than anything we regularly see in US cities.  Maybe parts of NYC or LA.

That said, I do wonder about Chinese data.  This is from a country trying to paint the illusion of accounting for every case and trying to control it's population (ie masking everywhere all the time).  I have a REALLY hard time believing they aren't missing some cases/spread. 

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13 minutes ago, catz said:

I have a REALLY hard time believing they aren't missing some cases/spread. 

I’m certain they are as well, but I don’t think that would discount the results of this particular study where they did indeed capture these cases and sequence these cases. The close contacts were all quarantined in government facilities as far as I can tell. The at risk were placed on home quarantine. I also think that there are certainly good scientists in China who are doing solid research with good intentions. What they’re able to publish is I’m sure dependent on what the government allows, but I do think a lot of science is happening there. The particularly strict circumstances allows them data that we would never have here.

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2 minutes ago, KSera said:

I’m certain they are as well, but I don’t think that would discount the results of this particular study where they did indeed capture these cases and sequence these cases. The close contacts were all quarantined in government facilities as far as I can tell. The at risk were placed on home quarantine. I also think that there are certainly good scientists in China who are doing solid research with good intentions. What they’re able to publish is I’m sure dependent on what the government allows, but I do think a lot of science is happening there. The particularly strict circumstances allows them data that we would never have here.

I absolutely think there are good scientists there.  I also think Chinese authorities will only release what serves them.  Whether or not they are in the business of manipulating data, hard to say.  

And I am still masking quite a bit for the record.  Masking does help prevent spread.  I haven't had covid yet that I'm aware of.  So I'm not trying to discount this exact study.

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2 hours ago, KSera said:

Would that be accurate on a jogging path though? That looks like an outdoor market type scenario. I did look up recent news photos which supported my guess that the majority of people are wearing pleated procedure masks, with cloth masks being next most common from what I see. Makes sense for the one masked person infected by the jogger. 

My experience in Japan and the Philippines would say that it’s an outdoor market in just a regular park. So yes, there would be people trying to jog too. The American idea of a solitary jogging path is not something I experienced there. I would assume that China would be similar. 

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4 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

That was a really good read. Do you know anything about the author?

We went to a recital today, and we were one of maybe three families masked, and a solitary teacher was masked (but took it off at least some of the time when talking in a non-crowded hallway). I would guess there were about 120 people in the room--there weren't enough chairs for everyone. That's the best masking I've seen outside of healthcare since our mask mandate ended in 2021. Sigh. 

 

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4 hours ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

My experience in Japan and the Philippines would say that it’s an outdoor market in just a regular park. So yes, there would be people trying to jog too. The American idea of a solitary jogging path is not something I experienced there. I would assume that China would be similar. 

I have been to Japan and briefly to a big city in China. That image looks like an outdoor market - not a place where people would jog; they also do make a big deal of the effect of exercise on likely virus emission - so the patient zero was likely going at a good pace, which would not be very likely in the type of market above.

And more importantly, keep in mind that the article considers anyone within 1 meter without prevention measures (presumably masks) as a close contact:  They don't make any mention of the ridiculous 15 minute cutoff that we have maintained in the US. So it is not clear it matters that much how crowded it was - anyone within 1 meter without a mask would be captured (and they do know the number of people in the 40+ acre park along a lake). What this article, if true, does appear to tell us is that with the newer variants, both outdoor and surface transmission is clearly something not to be considered lightly, and the absolute statements that scientists here have been making are probably simply a sign of ignorance  (or perhaps willful ignorance and wishful thinking).

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1 hour ago, Mom_to3 said:

I have been to Japan and briefly to a big city in China. That image looks like an outdoor market - not a place where people would jog; they also do make a big deal of the effect of exercise on likely virus emission - so the patient zero was likely going at a good pace, which would not be very likely in the type of market above.

And more importantly, keep in mind that the article considers anyone within 1 meter without prevention measures (presumably masks) as a close contact:  They don't make any mention of the ridiculous 15 minute cutoff that we have maintained in the US. So it is not clear it matters that much how crowded it was - anyone within 1 meter without a mask would be captured (and they do know the number of people in the 40+ acre park along a lake). What this article, if true, does appear to tell us is that with the newer variants, both outdoor and surface transmission is clearly something not to be considered lightly, and the absolute statements that scientists here have been making are probably simply a sign of ignorance  (or perhaps willful ignorance and wishful thinking).

?  I was born and raised in Japan. I do know what it is like there. 

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14 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

?  I was born and raised in Japan. I do know what it is like there. 

I haven’t been there myself, so I decided earlier today I just shouldn’t reply anymore on that point. I do think it’s worth saying though that Japan and China are very different places, as of course you well know. Japan, being a much smaller country, actually has a higher population density overall. That said, while China has lots of densely populated places that would look like that market, I can’t imagine that’s the kind of crowd that someone is going out for a jog through and I see lots of pictures online of various parks in China that have paved jogging paths that are really not dissimilar to a lot of the ones I’ve seen in US cities as far as how many people are on them. That seems more likely to be what they are talking about. There are also nature trail type jogging paths like we might have here, but given the number of people and the fact they called it a park, I would expect it to be more similar to how a city park might be here.

I wish they’d given the park name so we could look it up, as knowing the density of people would be useful. This seems a more likely way to imagine it than a wall to wall market area:

image.thumb.jpeg.6380714ce905513a6c087e62fb97dd08.jpeg


 

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I only travelled through the country once, and was lucky enough that it was during the cherry blossom festivals (so beautiful!) - so outdoor parks were probably as crowded as they can get. But as far as I recall not like in that picture, with bodies skin to skin everywhere (there WERE plenty of situations like that, but not in the parks). But as I said, it really doesn't matter, as the article controls for distance - a very crowded situation would have more close contacts within 1 meter) - so there is really no need to argue about density 🙂 We even have all the information to calculate how crowded it was" For 35 minutes, the Patient Zero jogged along a lake at a local [40+ acre] park without wearing a mask. Among the 2,836 people potentially exposed at the time,..." . If we think all of the 3000 people were in the park at the same time (probably fewer than that at any given time) and evenly distributed in the park, they were on the order of 7 meters distance apart on average (probably not true as the East Gate area seems to be particularly crowded with a "good flow of people" - there is a lot of information about potential exposure in that article from the video surveillance). And since the patient was jogging...he presumably wasn't standing or shopping next to the same people for a prolonged period of time (which would be a riskier exposure). Indeed, apparently only 13 [of the 33 park visitors who caught covid] were close contacts who had faced with or passed by Patient Zero." Also interestingly, "[d]uring the jogging time, there were 104 close contact who have a distance less than 1 meter with Patient Zero and without wearing masks", so if 13 of 104 "close contacts" (of course they wouldn't be close contacts according to the US CDC!) caught it, that is impressive. Now I have no idea to what extent this research is accurate, and even if it is accurate, to what extent this is a rare superspreader event.. Just like our CDC wants to send a certain message, I am sure their CDC does as well... 

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15 hours ago, catz said:

I was in China many years ago.  But I will say in general their public spaces, parks, etc particularly in cities are typically much more crowded than anything we regularly see in US cities.  Maybe parts of NYC or LA.

Parks are very busy in China. It's extremely rare for anyone in a city to have a garden/yard. 

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10 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

Even a better code for Bonafide masks

30% OFF

PROMO CODE: THX30

*Discount at checkout

*Coupon code limited 2 uses per customer

*Not valid on custom printed masks or large volume category

That’s a great discount. We just ordered on Sun, and they shipped on Mon, so the turn around time is fast right now.

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Just now, Spryte said:

That’s a great discount. We just ordered on Sun, and they shipped on Mon, so the turn around time is fast right now.

Yes,  we ordered last week and got them super fast.  Of course with only the 20% off coupon code.  Every time I order anything online after I order there is a better sale.

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1 minute ago, mommyoffive said:

Yes,  we ordered last week and got them super fast.  Of course with only the 20% off coupon code.  Every time I order anything online after I order there is a better sale.

Oh yes, I hear you! Same here. We did use the 20% off promo, but at this point Injust plan on seeing a better sale within days. 🤣

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30 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

Well this sucks.

d7f4957a-0515-422b-bd8e-bc9f78d1cf25

Ugh. Many of us in the EMS community were hopeful that telehealth would be expanded to treat patients at home with a paramedic and a telehealth doctor, for minor thing that don’t necessarily need an emergency room.  NYS did a pilot program which included Medicare reimbursement for these services. Results were mixed but there was a lot of hope that insurance companies would move towards paying for it.

But why pay for something like might actually improve healthcare. 

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37 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

Well this sucks.

d7f4957a-0515-422b-bd8e-bc9f78d1cf25

Ugh. Telehealth has been so, so helpful. It’s disappointing to see that while overall they’re keeping mental health telehealth covered, it requires going in in person periodically. That means that for people who have chosen a provider that is too distant from them to go in person, they may not be able to see them anymore and their choices may be severely limited. Being able to choose someone on the other side of the state or in a big city for people who live rural has really expanded mental health care access for many people. 
 

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2 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

Since the vaccine doesn’t prevent all deaths and the vast majority of Americans are vaccinated (and especially the vast majority of elderly people who are most likely to die of Covid), this is not a surprise in the least. Unfortunately, many people will take just the headline statement as reason not to vaccinate, thus increasing their chance of death:

“Let’s take a look at deaths in August, when the highly contagious BA.5 variant reached its peak: 

  • That month, unvaccinated people aged 6 months and older died at about six timesthe rate of those who had received their primary series of shots. 
  • People with one booster dose were even better protected. Unvaccinated people over the age of 5 had about 8 times the risk of dying from a coronavirus infection than those who received a booster shot. 
  • Among individuals who were eligible to receive additional booster shots, the gap is even more striking. Unvaccinated people 50 and up had 12 times the risk of dying from covid-19 than adults the same age with two or more booster doses.”

 

80% of the US population is vaccinated, 90% of those over 18 and 95% of those over 65. It’s concerning that given those numbers we still have as many people dying of Covid every week as we do, but without the vaccines it would be many times over the current numbers. 
 

(Not directed at you @mommyoffive, I know you know this stuff, but just saying in general and especially for anyone who sees that headline and thinks it means something it doesn’t.)

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Telehealth was the one good thing to still remain from the pandemic. They've killed everything else. Now they kill telehealth. It seems to me they don't actually want people to be able to access health care. Why?!?

Have they already determined when this will expire? I think we get a 60 day warning period?

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5 minutes ago, KSera said:

Sore throat and sneezing both appear to be really common with current Covid variants (with the sore throat being severe for many people), so it’s surprising to see them listed here as “rare”. 

Good point.  Wondering when the chart was made.  Maybe based off of a different variant?

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On 11/19/2022 at 6:09 PM, Mom_to3 said:

Wasn't sure if I should create a separate thread for this - but if this study from China about outdoor transmission is true...wow!

https://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/doi/10.46234/ccdcw2022.209

Just saw a MPH on Mastadon putting forth some potential yellow flags with this study--including, according to him, that all the authors work for the Chinese government. Also none of the sequencing has been uploaded to the public databases. Given the situation in China right now, I can see a case to be made for the study being suspect. (Personally, I would like for that to be the case, because if it's accurate, it really changes things. But above that, I just want to know what is true and what is not.)

Mastadon post link:

https://mstdn.science/@noah/109418378064454059

 

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

Long Covid Weekly: #22 - Long Covid Weekly Newsletter (substack.com)

Quote

Majority of people with long Covid ‘report experiencing some form of stigma
From the Independent:

Researchers for the study, published in the journal Plos One, found 95% of sufferers have experienced some form of stigma, while 76% reported experiencing it “often” or “always”.

Dr Marija Pantelic, lecturer in public health at Brighton and Sussex Medical School, said: “The stigma attached to long Covid is harming people living with long Covid and is likely to leave a devastating mark on our society and health service provision.

Some 61% of people said they were very careful who they tell about their condition, with around one third (34%) of respondents regretting telling people about it.

I am really curious who gives them flack. Is it employers wanting hale workers? Is it the same people encouraging everyone to drop masks and abandon protocols? The vaccinated and cautious? 

I know that I am less gracious in my mind to people who have long Covid but were also showing up at our governor's private residence in the middle of the night to bang pots and pans in protest of very, very flexible guidelines in our state, screaming about vaccines, etc., but I hope I would keep that to myself in front of them and be kind.

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27 minutes ago, kbutton said:

I am really curious who gives them flack. Is it employers wanting hale workers? Is it the same people encouraging everyone to drop masks and abandon protocols? The vaccinated and cautious? 

I know that I am less gracious in my mind to people who have long Covid but were also showing up at our governor's private residence in the middle of the night to bang pots and pans in protest of very, very flexible guidelines in our state, screaming about vaccines, etc., but I hope I would keep that to myself in front of them and be kind.

I have definitely noticed a “don’t admit it’s Covid” strategy among Covid deniers who then get Covid. There is this obvious avoidance of saying the actual cause of the pneumonia etc. I have even noticed this with people who have had a family member die. The person died from “sepsis “ or “multiple organ failure “ but no one will say what caused it. Then months later it will slip out that it was Covid. 
 

(I pray for all sick no matter the reason and don’t need to keep track of formal diagnoses. Ditto for deaths. I just noticed this hush-hush culture around it because it seems more tied to a kind of shame around the diagnosis in a specific group of people. I don’t notice this same reluctance to talk about a Covid diagnosis among people who got it despite taking precautions.). 

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31 minutes ago, kbutton said:

Majority of people with long Covid ‘report experiencing some form of stigma
From the Independent:

Researchers for the study, published in the journal Plos One, found 95% of sufferers have experienced some form of stigma, while 76% reported experiencing it “often” or “always”.

Dr Marija Pantelic, lecturer in public health at Brighton and Sussex Medical School, said: “The stigma attached to long Covid is harming people living with long Covid and is likely to leave a devastating mark on our society and health service provision.

Some 61% of people said they were very careful who they tell about their condition, with around one third (34%) of respondents regretting telling people about it.

All of this is one of the reasons that when people say, “I don’t know anyone who has any lasting effects from Covid” they just don’t know what they don’t know.  

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22 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I have definitely noticed a “don’t admit it’s Covid” strategy among Covid deniers who then get Covid. There is this obvious avoidance of saying the actual cause of the pneumonia etc. I have even noticed this with people who have had a family member die. The person died from “sepsis “ or “multiple organ failure “ but no one will say what caused it. Then months later it will slip out that it was Covid. 
 

(I pray for all sick no matter the reason and don’t need to keep track of formal diagnoses. Ditto for deaths. I just noticed this hush-hush culture around it because it seems more tied to a kind of shame around the diagnosis in a specific group of people. I don’t notice this same reluctance to talk about a Covid diagnosis among people who got it despite taking precautions.). 

21 minutes ago, KSera said:

All of this is one of the reasons that when people say, “I don’t know anyone who has any lasting effects from Covid” they just don’t know what they don’t know.  

Both of these resonate with my local experience in some ways, but then there are people that are both anti-vax, etc., who are known to have long Covid and get a lot of sympathy. It's very weird here.

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