Is there anywhere with herd immunity?

[Teaching3bears]

I was wondering if there was a place (country, city, etc. ) that has achieved what might be considered herd immunity or close to it. If so, what happened and what is going on there now?

[Sneezyone]

Short answer...no. There is no place with herd immunity right now.

[Syllieann]

I believe the Indian slums are closest.  https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/12/asia/herd-immunity-coronavirus-india-intl-hnk-dst/index.html

[ashfern]

Sweden?

[kokotg]

15 minutes ago, ashfern said:

Sweden?

The latest estimate I could find puts Sweden at only about 15% having had it. https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200813/swedens-no-lockdown-policy-didnt-achieve-herd-immunity

 

 

Edited August 19, 2020 by kokotg

[Pen]

18 hours ago, Sneezyone said:

Short answer...no. There is no place with herd immunity right now.

 

18 hours ago, Syllieann said:

I believe the Indian slums are closest.  https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/12/asia/herd-immunity-coronavirus-india-intl-hnk-dst/index.html

 

Both of these. No place with proven herd immunity, but Dharavi is probably closest .

 

[73349]

Even the hard-hit areas of Spain and Italy are nowhere near it. We will not get herd immunity without vaccination without huge, huge numbers of deaths.

[JennyD]

13 hours ago, square_25 said:

I think some neighborhoods of NY actually had very high rates of infection. But of course, people don't stay put in those neighborhoods... 

 

Here's the map.  

[Pam in CT]

The New York Times published an article yesterday summarizing the results of a monthlong widespread antibody testing program to estimate how many people had been exposed (testing was so severely constrained at the worst of NYC's crisis that only people with symptoms and medical personnel were able to get tested, which had a number of wonky rippling effects on a number of data measures). But this more recent antibody testing is an ex post attempt to begin to get a handle on the question of how many were exposed. FWIW, the antibody test is not as reliable as the antigen test.

The article's lede:

Quote

New York City on Tuesday released more than 1.46 million coronavirus antibody test results, the largest number to date, providing more evidence of how the virus penetrated deeply into some lower-income communities while passing more lightly across affluent parts of the city.

In one ZIP code in Queens, more than 50 percent of people who had gotten tested were found to have antibodies, a strikingly high rate. But no ZIP code south of 96th Street in Manhattan had a positive rate of more than 20 percent.

Across the city, more than 27 percent of those tested had positive antibody results. The borough with the highest rate was the Bronx, at 33 percent. Manhattan had the lowest rate, at 19 percent.

 

A little further down, caution that we still do not know one way or the other the extent or duration to which antibodies actually provide ongoing protection (the premise on which the hopes for "naturally occurring" "herd immunity" are based):

Quote

Some hard-hit areas may fare better during a second wave

Much remains unknown about the degree of protection against Covid-19 that antibodies may offer, or how long that protection may last. But the neighborhoods with more residents who were infected at the height of New York’s outbreak in March and April may be less likely to be among the hardest hit during a second wave...

..Of course, neighborhoods are not sealed off from one another, and even under the most optimistic predictions, most neighborhoods — and millions of New Yorkers — remain vulnerable to infection in a second wave.

Still, the relatively high prevalence of antibodies may partly explain why New York has not seen a significant uptick in cases over the past several months, even as the city has begun to reopen and some New Yorkers have begun to relax their social distancing.

In interviews, epidemiologists have generally expressed surprise and relief at the relatively low rate of new infections in New York City, chalking it up to a variety of measures: widespread use of face coverings, adherence to social distancing recommendations and the continued ban on indoor dining and bars.

 

The city posted the raw data from the study here (I have not pored over it, I give you, @square_25 )

[Pen]

On 8/19/2020 at 2:07 PM, ashfern said:

Sweden?

 

Discussion about Sweden ;

https://youtu.be/WkkDgcwmzR4

https://youtu.be/WkkDgcwmzR4

 

 

Edited August 21, 2020 by Pen