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Is the economy getting better or worse - in your experience?


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I've been trying to figure out if the economy is getting better or worse. Locally I had thought things were getting better. Restaurants are more full than they used to be and more jobs are coming to hubby (self employed). The newspaper has said our local tourist region is full (but with a side that people are spending less). I see more "hiring" signs, but all low end part time jobs. Nonetheless, I don't recall seeing the signs before. This is in PA.

 

However, when visiting relatives over the 4th I ended up with mixed thoughts. Talking with neighbors of theirs who are business owners, their work is VERY slow - esp for this time of year when they are normally hopping - and they are planning on more layoffs this coming WEEK unless some new work comes in. They feel badly, but can't do anything else. They had done layoffs before, but were able to rehire - till recently. This took place in VA.

 

Yet, there were far more and larger personal fireworks than I had seen in this same area before, so evidently, some folks have more disposable $$. Unless, of course, they are like our gov't and doing deficit spending? I find that hard to imagine with fireworks, but one never knows I guess.

 

I really enjoy watching the fireworks (and we spend exactly nothing), so it worked out well for us, but I still wonder about the future. Is it getting better - or worse - with your local "real" data? Anyone have any to share?

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Guest Virginia Dawn
I've been trying to figure out if the economy is getting better or worse. Locally I had thought things were getting better. Restaurants are more full than they used to be and more jobs are coming to hubby (self employed). The newspaper has said our local tourist region is full (but with a side that people are spending less). I see more "hiring" signs, but all low end part time jobs. Nonetheless, I don't recall seeing the signs before. This is in PA.

 

However, when visiting relatives over the 4th I ended up with mixed thoughts. Talking with neighbors of theirs who are business owners, their work is VERY slow - esp for this time of year when they are normally hopping - and they are planning on more layoffs this coming WEEK unless some new work comes in. They feel badly, but can't do anything else. They had done layoffs before, but were able to rehire - till recently. This took place in VA.

 

Yet, there were far more and larger personal fireworks than I had seen in this same area before, so evidently, some folks have more disposable $$. Unless, of course, they are like our gov't and doing deficit spending? I find that hard to imagine with fireworks, but one never knows I guess.

 

I really enjoy watching the fireworks (and we spend exactly nothing), so it worked out well for us, but I still wonder about the future. Is it getting better - or worse - with your local "real" data? Anyone have any to share?

 

I'm looking for signs that answer that question all the time. People don't talk about their own situations much but what I can see is:

 

No more major construction, increasingly empty store fronts, houses sitting on the market for ages - with price reduced signs, new construction sitting empty- especially outdoor mall areas and housing developements and condos.

 

My son who works at the Gap says sales are bad so they are giving employees less hours. All the stores I go in, grocery included, have large clearance areas that never end, up to 70% off. It is no longer seasonal.

 

My husband works in the tourist field, things are not horrible there. He thinks it is because people are choosing to spend money on things that are important to them, like family vacations, instead of other luxuries. Maybe that explains the fireworks.

 

Really, I think the worst has not hit the fan yet. People are hunkered down, learning to readjust, hoping for the best. Maybe it will be a slow downward progression, instead of a dramatic drop, but I do think things are going to get "worse."

 

I put quotes in worse because I think we were living in a fantasy world before. Anything is worse than believing we have unlimited financial and physical resources at our fingertips. Reality is harder to handle, especially if you are not used to it.

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It seems to me that things here are stagnant. Unemployment has gone down, but it is because of people leaving the area - not new jobs. The school system just laid off another 400 people. This are has been in a recession since 2007, so it has been a long haul at this point!

 

My uncle (a building inspector in our town) is doing his job and the code enforcer job (used to be 2 separate jobs.) He said they had more jobs lost for the next fiscal year, but managed to not lay anyone off. Some people retired and empty positions were eliminated. So, fewer jobs, but not an increase in unemployment.

 

At dh's job, attendance was WAY down this past weekend, even worse than in February. Tourism is slower in general. He's a little nervous about his job because he was the last one hired in his department, but I can't see how they would do with less. I see "Hiring" signs periodically, but for minimum wage jobs.

 

There are TONS of empty houses here. I also see a lot of "For Rent" signs, but rents haven't gone down enough for my tastes.:D

 

In NC, my dad says that while things are starting to pick up some, wages are being cut. This is not a good sign, but people *do* still have jobs.

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A respected economist, Arthur Laffer, feels the economy is only doing as well as it is this year because individuals and businesses that can are projecting as much income into 2010 as they can to avoid the tax hikes coming Jan. 2011.

 

Also, the prospect of rising prices, higher interest rates and more regulations next year will further entice demand and supply to be shifted from 2011 into 2010. In my view, this shift of income and demand is a major reason that the economy in 2010 has appeared as strong as it has. When we pass the tax boundary of Jan. 1, 2011, my best guess is that the train goes off the tracks and we get our worst nightmare of a severe "double dip" recession.

 

You can read the full article here: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704113504575264513748386610.html

 

I'm not sure it explains why people would be eating more in restaurants and buying more fireworks. Maybe more people are doing "staycations" instead of expensive travel.

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It's definitely worse in Michigan. Our official unemployment rate (which does not include people who never found a job but their benefits expired) is 14.5%. But, the actual rate is 24-25%. That's huge! Our closest city has lost 11% of it's population. The nearest town to us, population 1500, has 85 empty houses. In that town, a two-three bedroom/2 bath house on city utilities with a garage - maybe needs paint and carpet, no major repairs - sells for less than $20,000.00 That's right...and it's a very nice little town with just about zero crime!

 

Businesses are bankrupting left and right. If this continues, many of the rural towns of Michigan will be Ghost Towns, and the cities, even the suburbs, will be run-down and crime-ridden. One spot in Detroit has already seen "looting and pillaging" which is NEVER a good sign. Detroit is demolishing 10,000 buildings and Flint is planning 2000 with 800 of them being done this summer. I think that Lansing, Kalamazoo, and Grand Rapids are doing much better though. These locals have some very large pharmaceutical companies that are hiring and have helped keep the community afloat. I have heard that the heavily touristy areas, Petoskey, Charlevoix, Mackinaw, and Traverse Bay are hurting.

 

Oh and get this, our illustrious state governor has sent a bill to committee in which "ALL WATER SOURCES" are considered state property and homeowners will have to have meters installed on their wells and pay the state for water usage but the state will not have to maintain the well systems...the homeowner must pay for their well and maintance and then also pay to use the water!!!! Isn't she just a Jim Dandy gem of a politician? Rural Michigan hasn't been hit hard enough....now we are going to control the water that came with their property? I can't imagine what is going to happen to our small family farms. Many are struggling to keep their heads above water and now this? Can you imagine what it would cost to pay the state to water 400 dairy cows everyday? Oh, and this includes the pond as well. So, if you have dug a pond on your property, you pay a useage fee to swim in it - a monthly useage fee or the state will fill in your pond and put a lien on your property for the costs! I wonder what will happen on the farm where my horse is boarded? We water three horses, 32 sheep, six llamas, three pigs, a flock of chickens, three ducks, and barn cats. Will she be able to afford to continue with her animals? The horses are a hobby not a business. I don't even want to think about it!!

 

I am really hoping that the state legislature will be afraid of lynch mobs and refuse to even consider such a dangerous bill. Honestly, we do have some pretty desperate Michiganders in our area and I do think this one could cause some localized blood shed...truthfully, I think things are that bad here. When a man operates the family farm and his wife works part-time for some more cash and they work seven days a week, 12-14 hours days so that their profit, if they have one, is just a few thousand dollars (average family farm is clearing less than ten thousand dollars and some do not clear anything at all), and now this? I think somebody is going to snap and I really feel bad for the local sheriff and deputies who will be on the receiving end of trying to enforce the law.

 

Just my rant.....as I've said before....Michigan is the stench, of the sweat, of the armpit, of the economic crisis!

 

Faith

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government activites. The healthcare bill introduced a bunch of unknowns, and Obama promised to let the Bush tax cuts expire next year. They're just nervous about what the future will bring and waiting to hire. This nervousness means higher unemployment. Higher unemployment means lower tax revenue at the local, state and federal level.

 

Stagnation as far as the eye can see at least until November.

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Things seem much better than they were last year. Last year a ton of folks we knew got laid off and had trouble finding jobs. I haven't heard of any IRL acquaintances getting downsized in quite a while and pretty much everyone who had been unemployed is now back working. I'm also hearing of folks who are currently employed interviewing for better jobs, which is another sign that the job market is improving. Finally, a friend of ours just started his own firm a few months ago and when we saw him last week he said it is taking off.

 

Pretty much the only negative stuff I've been hearing has been the whole state budget mess.

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Things were looking up this Spring, many friends who were laid off had found jobs, there was less economic uncertainty, and it seemed like everyone I knew breathed a common exhale of relief, but more recently since the summer, it feels like the panic is back. Three more friends have gotten potential layoff notices, another friend's foreclosure is proceeding, and now it feels like we are entering back into the thick of the bad times again.

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It's been worse for our small business and other friends in small business. Less construction, fewer contracts, fewer hours, clients not paying on bills.

 

DSS18 has put out over 50 applications and hasn't had so much as an interview.

 

MIL (teacher's assistant at a local private school) says they are going from 3 classes at each age to 2 or in some cases 2 and then a 'bridge' class (for example, mixed 2nd and 3rd graders) because fewer people can afford the tuition.

 

The business FIL works for has not bothered to rehire for the part-time posistions they used to have. The fulltime workers are just expected to pick up the slack.

 

A friend who manages a Costco says sales have been falling for 2 years.

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Out of curiosity, I looked up the unemployment rate for my county. It's currently 10.9%, which is higher than a year ago (when it was 10.3%) but down from the peak of 12.1% in January. The county where we lived last year shows a similar pattern (8.8% now vs. 9.7% in Jan and 8.6% a year ago) as does the city of S.F. (9.2% now vs. 10.4% in Jan and 9.0% a year ago).

 

But it's still a far cry from the 3.5-5% rate we had before the economy tanked. :(

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I think we are holding our own here in South Texas. I don't see to many changes, some layoffs in the oil field. But nothing we haven't seen before. There are houses for sale that aren't going anywhere, but I think that is more about the Ingleside Navy base being closed. There are still jobs here to be had. The biggest change I see is that more employers are cheaping out on insurance, and insurance companies are charging massive deductables. But I see more people use medicaid too, especially for the kids. The health clinics are seeing more people too.

 

For the most part, things are much better here than other places.

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Out of curiosity, I looked up the unemployment rate for my county. It's currently 10.9%, which is higher than a year ago (when it was 10.3%) but down from the peak of 12.1% in January. The county where we lived last year shows a similar pattern (8.8% now vs. 9.7% in Jan and 8.6% a year ago) as does the city of S.F. (9.2% now vs. 10.4% in Jan and 9.0% a year ago).

 

But it's still a far cry from the 3.5-5% rate we had before the economy tanked. :(

 

The unemployment rate is misleading. It doesn't count people who aren't looking actively anymore. It doesn't count people who are underemployed. It doesn't count people who have cobbled together 2-3 PT jobs just to keep going.

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The unemployment rate is misleading. It doesn't count people who aren't looking actively anymore. It doesn't count people who are underemployed. It doesn't count people who have cobbled together 2-3 PT jobs just to keep going.

 

:iagree:

OTOH, I haven't seen any indication among folks I know IRL that there are greater numbers of these than a year ago.

 

One of my cousins did decide to go back to school to train in a different field when he got laid off, but it was something he'd talked about doing for a long time. The unemployment just lowered the "opportunity cost" of his going back to school.

 

Similarly, I know several women who decided to become SAHM's and have a 2nd (or 3rd) kid after getting laid off. Again this was something they'd been thinking of doing anyways and the lousy economy was merely the catalyst.

 

It's a lot harder to walk away from one's job to go back to school or become a SAHM than it is for someone to make that decision after the paid position disappears.

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I am in a small town in central Texas. Doesn't seem to be too much change around here. The housing market is slower, but it is generally slow to begin with. I don't know anyone who has been laid off or anything. Texas economy is typically good.

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Talking with neighbors of theirs who are business owners, their work is VERY slow - esp for this time of year when they are normally hopping - and they are planning on more layoffs this coming WEEK unless some new work comes in. They feel badly, but can't do anything else.

 

No more major construction, increasingly empty store fronts, houses sitting on the market for ages - with price reduced signs, new construction sitting empty- especially outdoor mall areas and housing developements and condos.

 

 

This is our experience as well.

 

We own a remodeling company. Business is slow slow slow. We've survived only by the grace of God. More than one small business we know in the industry is down to the owner and one employee -- everyone else has been let go.

 

Healthcare and taxes this year are killing us. :001_huh: I don't know exactly why that is, but it ofter makes me want to cry.

 

I feel like we're hanging on by a thread and I hope the economy gets better soon.

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This is our experience as well.

 

We own a remodeling company. Business is slow slow slow. We've survived only by the grace of God. More than one small business we know in the industry is down to the owner and one employee -- everyone else has been let go.

 

Healthcare and taxes this year are killing us. :001_huh: I don't know exactly why that is, but it ofter makes me want to cry.

 

I feel like we're hanging on by a thread and I hope the economy gets better soon.

 

My mother had to drop healthcare for her employees - she couldn't afford it anymore. As for taxes, though - she isn't making a profit so there aren't any other than the regular payroll taxes and sales taxes (which she collects.)

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This is our experience as well.

 

We own a remodeling company. Business is slow slow slow. We've survived only by the grace of God. More than one small business we know in the industry is down to the owner and one employee -- everyone else has been let go.

 

Healthcare and taxes this year are killing us. :001_huh: I don't know exactly why that is, but it ofter makes me want to cry.

 

I feel like we're hanging on by a thread and I hope the economy gets better soon.

 

We redefined our business and no longer have "employees" but rather use "subcontractors" (same group of guys, mind you) to avoid increases to taxes and healthcare. It wasn't ideal for anyone, but it was better than us going out of business and no one having a job.

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My dad only cleared $1000.00 after expenses in his LLC Fireplace/Heating/AC/Alternative Energy shop for 2009. He worked 65-80 hours per week and my mother worked 40 hours per week. For this, they drew a combined salary of only $28,000.00 and the business paid 35% taxes on that thousand! They also paid taxes on inventory that hadn't sold by January 31st, so their total tax biil was $8000.00. Dad had to sell a bunch of inventory at loss and then borrow some cash in order to pay the taxes.

 

He has four other employees one of whom is my nephew. Dad is desperately trying to get his grandson a new job because though two of the other three employees are currently "laid off", at least one will be permanently fired since there aren't any new constructions in a three county radius, most of the contractors he did heating systems for have gone bankrupt, and he doesn't see any sign of recovery. I would say that when the new taxes for 2011 hit, he and mom will fire the rest of their employees, he'll move some inventory and all of his tools into the pole barn on their home property, and he'll let the bank repossess the building. He and mom will do what work he can scrounge up out of their home which is thankfully paid off and never was used a collateral for the business.

 

Our church is cutting two full-time positions to part-time because offerings are down. Twenty LPN's were let go at our local hospital...I really don't know what patient care is going to be like.

 

Faith

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My dad only cleared $1000.00 after expenses in his LLC Fireplace/Heating/AC/Alternative Energy shop for 2009. He worked 65-80 hours per week and my mother worked 40 hours per week. For this, they drew a combined salary of only $28,000.00 and the business paid 35% taxes on that thousand! They also paid taxes on inventory that hadn't sold by January 31st, so their total tax biil was $8000.00. Dad had to sell a bunch of inventory at loss and then borrow some cash in order to pay the taxes.

 

Faith

 

We no longer stock any inventory precisely because of the taxes. When a client needs something, we buy it from our wholesaler and then resell to to the clients as "non-inventory cost-of-goods-sold." Again, it's not ideal but it works.

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We eat out nearly every day and the restaurants here have been pretty empty most weeks since Christmas.

 

This past year, I've seen more and more stores setting up big sale sections to try to move seasonal merchandise that just isn't moving.... I've never seen this before to this extent or in as many stores.

 

I couldn't get folks to sign up for field trips last fall and gave up on trying to do them. They just can't afford the gas, even when the trips are free. I think there are other factors involved in that, too, but I did hear lots of complaints about gas costs.....

 

We just took a trip across southern Indiana and almost every little town we went through had up signs asking for donations to help with fireworks displays. Our neighborhood asked this year for the first time, too. I've heard that lots of towns had to cancel their displays.

 

I had heard at the beginning of the summer that lots more folks were going to be traveling this year, but I haven't seen any indication of that around here.

 

The small business owners I've talked to in the past few months have been saying that taxes and regulations, plus inability to get loans (still) is keeping them from growing.

 

My husband, an audit manager, has been talking about taxes that are coming down the pike in the next 1-3 years and I think he said it's going to be the largest tax increase in history. I don't think that's going to really help increase spending, but I guess we'll see soon enough.....

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My dad only cleared $1000.00 after expenses in his LLC Fireplace/Heating/AC/Alternative Energy shop for 2009. He worked 65-80 hours per week and my mother worked 40 hours per week. For this, they drew a combined salary of only $28,000.00 and the business paid 35% taxes on that thousand! They also paid taxes on inventory that hadn't sold by January 31st, so their total tax biil was $8000.00. Dad had to sell a bunch of inventory at loss and then borrow some cash in order to pay the taxes.

 

He has four other employees one of whom is my nephew. Dad is desperately trying to get his grandson a new job because though two of the other three employees are currently "laid off", at least one will be permanently fired since there aren't any new constructions in a three county radius, most of the contractors he did heating systems for have gone bankrupt, and he doesn't see any sign of recovery. I would say that when the new taxes for 2011 hit, he and mom will fire the rest of their employees, he'll move some inventory and all of his tools into the pole barn on their home property, and he'll let the bank repossess the building. He and mom will do what work he can scrounge up out of their home which is thankfully paid off and never was used a collateral for the business.

 

Our church is cutting two full-time positions to part-time because offerings are down. Twenty LPN's were let go at our local hospital...I really don't know what patient care is going to be like.

 

Faith

 

I am trying to figure out the taxes - 15.3% for self-employment, 10% federal tax, and the rest state tax? That self-employment tax gets people every time. Normally your employer pays half and the employee has the other half deducted, but self-employed people pay both sides.:glare:

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I am generally pessimistic about the economy. I'm not convinced that the bottom has fallen out of the housing market, for example.

 

However, I do have one anecdotal rumor, that IF it is true, means that the economy is doing a lot better than we all imagine.

 

Allegedly, the father of C3 has gotten a job -- a GOOD job! (We'll call him "D".)

 

Please put this into perspective:

 

D is in his late 20s. He has no college or tech degree. He has no job history. He does have a felony, has served prison time, and has a history of anger/behavioral issues. He also has a history of drugs and dealing.

 

For the 21 months that I babysat for his son, his work history was spotty and not on the books. It was below him to apply/work for minimum wage. It is below him to do volunteer work (for example: Habitat for Humanity). He would talk about wanting to work construction, but it was below him to work at a construction site picking up stuff and proving himself. He wanted to be hired as a journeyman right away.

 

Once, he paid child support. It wasn't the full amount for even one month....but he did pay it once.

 

He has been evicted from two apartments in this time and nearly lost his privileges for mooching off his folks again. (Special allowances have been made for the sake of his son C3.)

 

Because of his idiocy, the car his parents helped him to get was towed/impounded. He was too lazy to borrow an airpump his dad has in the garage to pump up the tire and get his car home. He let the impound fees accumulate until they were more than the car is worth before he told his folks.

 

Even his parents, who are respected businessmen, homeowners, and local citizens, couldn't pull in enough favors to get him a job.

 

Now, allegedly, D has a job at 3M. One that will pay good, possibly union wages, allow him to catch up on the minimal amount of child support he owes, and give him benefits.

 

Is this another story of D's? or has hell frozen over? Is 3M that desperate for workers that they can't pick up some of the hundreds of workers laid off from other local companies who have 8-12+ years of good references and steady work history?

 

If even D can get a job like this, then the economy is in a lot better shape than any of us thinks!

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my husband works for commission in Houston and we're doing VERY well this year. i know it's been said that Houston has been insulated from the worst parts, but last year was his worst year in the past 5 years. this year promises to be his biggest year ever if things continue at this rate.

 

his company is trying to hire a new guy and they can't get anyone, so i don't guess anyone is hurting for work around here either!

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Interesting. Now that people mention it, we went walking through a mall the other day and walked out with 5 shirts and a pair of shorts all with a decent name brand from a store that I previously never shopped at much due to their higher prices and we only paid a whopping $50. We didn't even go there to shop for clothes - just decided to look around after eating at Chick Fil A (which was full for lunch).

 

I'm thinking retail, construction/remodeling, and housing are down, but perhaps small splurges like inexpensive restaurants and a "once per year" fireworks are up?

 

The tourist area we live near (Gettysburg) always does well in a recession economy (so I read) since we are close enough to some major cities for many to consider it a staycation. The newspaper said there were plenty of tourists, but per capita spending was down.

 

It all does seem to fit what people are seeing IRL (in general).

 

As for us, we're still day to day. We used to have a backlog of 3 - 6 months, but on the phone today hubby told a prospective new client that he could have a job done in 2 weeks. 'Tis true. He just finished a couple of other jobs, so phone calls with new jobs are welcome. Due to many people paying slowly he also now requires a decent downpayment. His usual bigger clients have slowed way down and some have gone under as have a couple competitors. I like to think things are improving. Time will tell.

 

We have a couple investment rental properties we tried to sell to cash out some equity even at a loss of some of the original. No one was buying even significantly under current appraisal values. However, we were able to raise rent (new tenants, not on ones already there) on both places since there are oodles of people looking. In both houses we have people who would have liked to have bought, but couldn't get financing. I think their mortgage payment would have been less than the rent had they qualified for financing, but silly me to question the banks. At least the rent more than covers the mortgages we owe (and taxes, etc). IF the economy improves, we're better off not selling anyway. I wish we had more cushion in the bank now though. Such is life.

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I think it is better in some sectors and worse in others. It will get worse for some. We've seen some chinese restaurants close, but not too many other business failing. We've seen a lot of businesses continue to expand.

 

It doesn't matter if unemployment is only .1% if you are that .1% then it is devastating to you.

 

I think the doom and gloomers will be wrong and the every thing is rosy will be wrong.

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This is the worst economy I've seen. In spite of that, there are many people that aren't struggling. Some of this is due to good fortune, and some of it is due to good choices earlier, and some is a combination of both. Seeing this has given me a new perspective on insulating or protecting oneself against a poor economy.

 

When my husband quit his job in February, he had three different job offers. He's a software programmer.

 

Things I have learned in the past year or so:

 

College degrees often help. When times are tough, every little bit can give you an edge against other applicants when applying for a job. If the job is between two highly qualified people and one has a college degree and one doesn't, the job will likely go to the person with the degree. Having a college degree in a lucrative field is even better. :)

 

Networking over the years helps tremendously. Dh build relationships over the years and has helped many people along the way. He has been careful to never burn bridges even when he worked with difficult people.

 

Living below one's means during good times takes off lots of pressure when times are lean. Although we've stayed employed, having a savings account and little to no debt was a comfort--even when the stock market was tanking.

 

Staying current in one's industry (particularly the software industry) causes one to be much, much more marketable. (This has not been easy.) This is a field that changes quickly. Dh regularly researches and learns new skills on his own time. This has paid dividends as far as his marketability.

 

The health care field seems recession proof--at least for the near future. Two of our dds are interested in this field, and we are strongly encouraging them in this direction.

 

Having good benefits, especially health insurance, has been a huge cost savings over the years. For about five years my dh was self-employed. Our insurance was very expensive. While he's has opportunities to do software consulting under his own business, he's chosen to work for companies that offer benefits. He's chosen to give up independence for low-cost life, health, and disability benefits. He's had the privilege for working for companies that have very low cost health insurance premiums that offered excellent coverage. For a larger family, the cost savings to us has been thousands and thousands of dollars each year--even when there isn't any major sicknesses. (Braces for 4 kids, glasses or contacts for 5 people, dental cleanings, well-checks, prescription meds, and so on.)

 

I'm not saying the above to rub in the fact that we're doing well while others aren't. I hope my comments above do not offend. My dh has tried helping others that are out of work over the years. I do think the choices dh made many years ago have paid dividends today, and I wanted to share that.

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