So, do you believe all the recent "we are on our way to recovery" talk?

[LizzyBee]

Obviously, different areas of each state are hit differently. Here in Indiana, the state average is 10.7%, but one industrial town, heavily influenced by GM, leads the cities within Indiana with a whopping 18.8%.

 

This is very true, and maybe Holly meant localized areas, not whole states, when she said some states are at 25%.

[LizzyBee]

It's mind-boggling that there are people buying into that, isn't it?

 

Especially the decision-makers in DC who should know better!!!!!!

[Jugglin'5]

NO And don't believe the soon to come lies about GM's great and mighty recovery either. My husband sells for Ford, the only one of the three who isn't on the dole. GM is now undercutting the competition by 6,000-12,000 per vehicle. :svengo:They just came out of bankruptcy, had their debt resolved, and thanks to gov bailout are underselling at great losses. WHy? How long will Ford be able to handle the consumer bleed to GM before they too go under? How long will the taxpayers be able to support GM not making any profit on vehicles? Until Ford is unstable and under?:001_huh:

 

Hubby himself lost 3 customers so far this month to Gm because who wouldn't purchase a vehicle that far under price. The other sales people have similar losses. (And yes, while there is some markup, that markup is almost all in used cars. New cars have very little wiggle room to wiggle with, much less $6,000 to cut, $600 yes, $6,000 no way.)

 

IF that is happening across the nation, GM will report huge sales increases far above the experts predictions and thus give "proof" that bailing out large corporations is great for the economy. While ignoring that it came only because the taxpayer supported selling cars at terrific losses. Even the people buying GM admit it is only because the price is just too far below realistic to not do it. THey will never get a better deal on a new car.

 

This really depresses me. I was all set to become a Ford customer in the future (I currently own a Suburban) because I don't want to buy a govt. subsidized vehicle. It sounds like they will be gone too, by the time we are ready for a new vehicle. :eek: Maybe they will hold on by the skin of their teeth until the govt. stops subsidizing GM and Chrysler (I am trying to repress my inner pessimist). I hope you guys are able to ride this out, too. :grouphug: My dh has already had to make a career change (real estate to offshore oil rig electronics technician - big change, yes?:lol:)

[mcconnellboys]

Oh, I don't believe that they buy into it at all. They know better. But they've hedged their bets, so their families will be secure much longer than the average American family.... Welcome to the new feudalism....

[Supertechmom]

This really depresses me. I was all set to become a Ford customer in the future (I currently own a Suburban) because I don't want to buy a govt. subsidized vehicle. It sounds like they will be gone too' date=' by the time we are ready for a new vehicle. :eek: Maybe they will hold on by the skin of their teeth until the govt. stops subsidizing GM and Chrysler (I am trying to repress my inner pessimist). I hope you guys are able to ride this out, too. :grouphug: My dh has already had to make a career change (real estate to offshore oil rig electronics technician - big change, yes?:lol:)[/quote']

 

 

Thanks! Most of Ford's customers are saying the same thing. They won't buy from the ones who took gov money. IF the majority of car buyers would do the same Ford will probably come out on top. Ford was actually in pretty good shape when this crisis started and has been rebounding rather well the last 4 months. They may just beat it. we've tried to make a career change of any kind but there is nothing anywhere in our state and the housing market here makes it virtually impossible to sell, pick up and move. We can only hope to ride it out.

[runninmommy]

In a word....NOPE.

[A.D.]

On the way? Yes.

Unemployment is a lagging indicator, and will worsen in the next few months. The data will slowly go from "bad" to "less bad", and then we should see a recovery from there. Right now we are bouncing along a trough.

A positive GDP number in the 3rd and 4th quarters would not surprise (well, maybe the 3rd a little), and we should see growth by the 1st of next year.

 

Regarding inflation, no I do not expect to see hyper inflation anytime soon. We could see a spike over time, depending on what plans the Fed has to leak money back out of the system. I can say that inflation in an economy the size of the US is a lot more complex than the amount of dollars printed.

[TravelingChris]

No, we are not only not in a recovery, it will get much worse. I was ranting about it to my dh today as we were driving home from church. I was saying that as a cautious person, I would be very unlikely to be an entrepreneur. However, I think our economy depends on may small businesses. Three bills making their way through Congress will devastate them. The energy bill which amkes the companies including small business pay the bill. THe health plan which also makes the same companies pay. Finally, the increase in taxes that many companies will be paying. Three giant increases can't possibly make small business attractive. If people are wary about increasing investments in businesses now, why would they be more willing to invest if the business was making a lot less profit? They wouldn't and without investments, business can't grow. With less profit, many small businnesses will have to close. That is extremely bad news for our economy.

We are one of the few who is only affected directly by the bad economy in that our college age son has not yet gotten a job to pay for his college books. My husband's job is secure and he will actually get a small pay raise in Jan., I believe. I really would rather we not get that pay raise but that our children wouldn't be burdened with the enormous debt our country now has and seems to want to increase it as fast as it can. How completely irresponsible of our elected officials.We will get inflation, high unemplpyment and minimal GNP growth in otherwords, Jimmy Carter's stagflation once again. I lived through that as a young teen and it was not a fun time at all. My mom and brother had problems getting employment or enough employment and prices rose very fast so we had much less money.

[KidsHappen]

NO! and I am scared, very scared. My hubby is currently home, has been for two weeks and will be again this next week. He only worked a two weeks out of the previous month. I have never had to worry about his job before.

[Karenciavo]

What do you think? Is recovery imminent? Are we "on our way" to recovery? (who knows how long we'll take to get there :). Or are we walking in the dark?

 

Recovery could take a while, maybe another 3.5 years.

[RegGuheert]

No, we are not in a recovery, IMO.

 

I also have the following beliefs about the economy:

- The government cannot solve the problems we are facing by doing more of the things which caused the problem in the first place: borrowing and spending.

- I have come to believe that inflation is an increase in money supply PLUS credit available. As such, I expect that since credit is contracting at such a high rate there is NO AMOUNT of money printing that can be done to increase the total amount of money and credit in the system. Therefore I fully expect a deflationary depression rather than stagflation. If you remember back during the stagflation years, personal incomes were going up rapidly during the 1970s. Today, the only people who are experiencing increases in their personal incomes are government workers. Most of us are experiencing sharp decreases in our incomes.

- I expect there will eventually be a backlash between those in the private sector who have very little in terms of entitlements and those in the public sector who have an enormous amount of entitlements. Does it really make sense that a single individual in California on a state government pension receives US$500,000 per year?! It's no wonder they are experiencing serious financial problems!

- Recovery will be about a decade off if it occurs.

- We in the US will never recover to levels prior to this recession. Why not? Because many "real" jobs are now overseas and there is not an increasing amount of energy available to grow the global economy. The economic belief in forever exponential growth is a myth, since it ignores the limits of living on a finite planet.

 

OTOH, I hope I am wrong about much of this!

Here is another site with information accurate up until June 2009.

Those numbers are the "Official" Unemployment Rate, U-3, which are the number used in headlines. There are other official unemployment numbers published by the government that give a more realistic picture of the unemployment rate. These include categories of people who are now discouraged and no longer looking, those who have dropped from the unemployment roles and those who desire full-time employment but can only get part-time employment. U-6 is the largest of these numbers and currently sits at 16.5%, seasonally adjusted.

 

For those who are interested, here is a blog post which explains this in some detail. Click on the last chart in that post in order to see all the unemployment numbers which the government releases (U-1 through U-6).

[Julie in CA]

However, I think our economy depends on may small businesses. Three bills making their way through Congress will devastate them. The energy bill which amkes the companies including small business pay the bill. THe health plan which also makes the same companies pay. Finally, the increase in taxes that many companies will be paying. Three giant increases can't possibly make small business attractive. If people are wary about increasing investments in businesses now, why would they be more willing to invest if the business was making a lot less profit? They wouldn't and without investments, business can't grow. With less profit, many small businnesses will have to close. That is extremely bad news for our economy.

:iagree: As one of those small-business owners, it's my opinion that if the government would step out of the way of small business, recovery could happen sooner rather than later. We are a (large)farm family, and at this point, we are still mostly ok--just struggling a bit. If the government would stay out of our way for a little while, I think we might weather the storm. Food production is one of those necessary industries that I think is a truer prediction of economic depression than many other numbers people use to measure such things. If the farmers go down, it's an indicator that it's gone way past the point where people are cutting back--it means that they are cutting back on the neccessities of life, and not just the things we've come to expect as part of our American lifestyle.

 

I don't want to drag this thread into the realm of the political, but regardless of how you feel about the health care issue, now is just *not the time* to fix it. Now is also not the time to increase regulation regarding the environment. My apologies to those of you who think that those issues are so important that they can't wait, but the "fix" that people are crying for is coming at the exact time that businesses cannot possibly sustain the burden.

[Kathy in MD]

I'm finding it hard to swallow. I guess I really believe the financial sector is much worse off than we are hearing. I don't believe we have hit bottom yet, especially in the housing market. I read recently that some banks were beginning to put off foreclosures as long as possible so they wouldn't have to reveal the depth of their losses.

 

What do you think? Is recovery imminent? Are we "on our way" to recovery? (who knows how long we'll take to get there :). Or are we walking in the dark?

 

I haven't read the other responses, but I think that "imminent" recovery is for the people (and lawmakers) that want things resolved NOW!.

 

It took us years to get into this mess, and it will take years to get out. Just like it takes time for individuals to get their financial act together. Unfortunately too many can't accept this.

 

Now if people just remember that there was a reason for all the banking regulations that went into effect during the depression, and reestablish good regulations plus a few other items, we might avoid another similar mess.

[My3Boys]

Nope, I see the economy will be worse. The basic economics of printing money (trillion of new spending) and we are headed to super inflation and worse case bankrupt nation.

 

The spending has not stopped. The people have been indoctrinated into the nanny state. They want more government programs to be taken care of.

 

We will have inflation and higher taxes.

 

I also believe that with all the new programs the poor will be taken care of, the rich will take their money out of the country and the middle class as always will bear the burden of all the spending.

 

The fairy tale that this administration has sold to the public is unattainable.

 

:iagree: And well said.

[Margaret in GA]

I think we have a few more hurdles, but all in all I think we'll get out OK in the next year. At least our portfolio is looking better. And the businesses my husband and I own seem to be maintaining. To put things in perspective, I found these numbers:

 

from CNN July 2: The unemployment rate rose for the ninth straight month, climbing to 9.5 percent from 9.4 percent.

 

from U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics in 1981: Ronald Reagan's first year in office, the U.S. average unemployment rate stood at 7.6 percent. During Reagan's presidency, it reached a high of 9.7 percent, and had declined to a level of 5.5 percent when Reagan left office. In other words, it was worse for a few years under Reagan than Carter, then better again. I think we forget that sometimes.

 

We all lived through that and we'll live through this, too IMHO.

 

Margaret

[tricia]

NO, NO, and NO. Honestly, what idiot can think that it is when foreclosures are up, people still losing jobs, etc. HOW on earth can a recovery happen with totally OBVIOUS negative things happening. I wish I could remember where I read it but somewhere I read that "technically" speaking looking at the numbers that we are already in a depression. Again, not remembering where that came from it could have even been an opinion. But I agree with me dh anyway when he says "some people ARE in a depression" in our country. They are hurting that bad. :001_smile:

[RegGuheert]

Deleted.

Edited July 20, 2009 by RegGuheert
I think I was mistaken on this point...

[RegGuheert]

- I expect there will eventually be a backlash between those in the private sector who have very little in terms of entitlements and those in the public sector who have an enormous amount of entitlements. Does it really make sense that a single individual in California on a state government pension receives US$500,000 per year?! It's no wonder they are experiencing serious financial problems!

Pension spiking is a perfect example of the kind of entitlements to which some public workers have afforded themselves that will cause the backlash which I am predicting:

 

"Pete Nowicki had been making $186,000 shortly before he retired in January as chief for a fire department shared by the municipalities of Orinda and Moraga in Northern California. Three days before Mr. Nowicki announced he was hanging up his hat, department trustees agreed to increase his salary largely by enabling him to sell unused vacation days and holidays. That helped boost his annual pension to $241,000.

 

Mr. Nowicki's situation isn't unique. Contracts that permit a jump in salary just before retirement -- boosting the pension payout -- have been around for years. But as tough times are putting more scrutiny on public pensions, Mr. Nowicki's case has sparked particular anger from colleagues and local residents. Some recently demanded an explanation from the department trustees and others have lobbied the Orinda council to divert funds away from the fire department."

[MomLovesClassics]

Unemployment in my state is above 10%, and it is even higher in other states. State employees including teacher are taking furloughs. Even private business are having furloughs. I look around and see too many examples of how the economy is not improving.