Insulin is one but there are others.

Okay, first I'll mention my bona fides, such as they are, so people will know where I am coming from. I live in a town with a large packing plant and live fairly close to some others. We live where we do because of my husband's job. He has an agribusiness degree and is a grain merchant. He is working from home, so, in addition to discussing it directly with him, I hear some of his discussions with customers and coop members. The current worst case scenario that the industry is talking about is farmers slaughtering 3,000,000 hogs without sending them to market. That sounds like a lot, huh? And it is a lot, but it is about a week's slaughter. That, without other confounding issues in production and distribution, wouldn't create a huge shortage in supermarket shelves. Especially since the freezers have been full. They have been rendering pork belly for dog food since this started, since they didn't have room to store more. Something like 60% of bacon consumed in the US is eaten at restaurants. While there has been a lot of talk in the industry of farmers slaughtering the hogs, it hasn't been happening much yet. Farmers have, over all, been attempting to draw it out. The processing plants have been paying some (not what market value would have been) for fat hogs and rendering them. This isn't as good as farmers selling their hogs for meat processing, but it is better than the farmers just killing them. The hope at this point is that the plants will be running at 2/3 capacity, with 2 shifts processing and 1 shift cleaning. They are putting in other safety measures, too. I don't have time to say much more. I have an online Spanish lesson to teach soon. But here are two thoughts to leave with you. Meat has become the new tp. While there will be glitches in supply chains and blips in production, the immediate problem has been overbuying. The true shortages, if they materialize, will likely come later. Remember, the freezers were too full to store more product recently. And, to everyone saying that people should just eat less meat, you should consider that some of the main byproducts of the processing plants are medicines. There will probably be empty spots at the grocery store occasionally off and on (wish I had time to expound on that more) and that will be more of an inconvenience than an emergency. The reduction of medicine could have a bigger impact.

Thought I posted last night. I'll be back after read aloud. I'm from the opposite side of the state from Blsdmama (👋) and my husband works in a different part of the industry.

Yes.

Dd16 has read something like 40 books in the almost 7 weeks we have been home, some ebooks from the library and some from my shelves. I bought a Harry Potter box set. It came today and should keep her busy through the weekend. The other kids have only been reading from my shelves. I bought about 10 books for our Tolkien study next year. I don't want the boys to read them since they will read them for school soon. I won't forbid it but we have plenty of other books. I will buy more if they want something in particular, but I will also recommend rereading favorites. I have been trying to cull books and it is slow going at this point. I like my collection.

https://www.virology.ws/2020/04/05/infection-fatality-rate-a-critical-missing-piece-for-managing-covid-19/ But is that 3% infection ratio accurate, and if not, what is the real number? To understand this, we need to understand the difference between case fatality rate (CFR) and infection fatality rate (IFR). CFR is the ratio of the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed (preferably by nucleic acid testing) cases of disease. IFR is the ratio of deaths divided by the number of actual infections with SARS-CoV-2. Because nucleic acid testing is limited and currently available primarily to people with significant indications of and risk factors for covid-19 disease, and because a large number of infections with SARS-CoV-2 result in mild or even asymptomatic disease, the IFR is likely to be significantly lower than the CFR. The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) at the University of Oxford currently estimates the CFR globally at 0.51%, with all the caveats pertaining thereto. CEBM estimates the IFR at 0.1% to 0.26%, with even more caveats pertaining thereto.

April 3, 2020, Research Update This report from Imperial College in London and others provides updated estimates of the infection fatality ratio (IFR, deaths/all infections, including mild and asymptomatic) and the case fatality ratio (CFR, death/symptomatic or confirmed infections). They estimate a mean duration from symptom onset to death of 18 days and for survivors the time from symptom onset to hospital discharge of 25 days. They do a good job of trying to adjust for biases in the data attributable to oversampling of severe cases early in a pandemic, failure to adjust for age, and the lag between case identification and death. The overall IFR is estimated to be 0.66%, and the overall CFR is 1.38%. The CFR increases from 0.06% for those in their 20s to 0.15% in their 30s, 0.30% in their 40s, 1.3% in their 50s, 4.0% in their 60s, 8.6% in their 70s, and 13.4% for those 80 and older. The proportion hospitalized increases from 1% in their 20s to 4% in their 40s to 12% in their 60s. Written by Mark H. Ebell, MD, MS, on March 31, 2020. (Source: Verity R, Okell LC, Dorigatti I, et al. Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis. Lancet Infect Dis. [Published online March 30, 2020]. https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7.pdf) As more testing is done, I believe the IFR will continue to drop.

My county has just started to get bad within the last week, but we are on our 7th week of being home, not under official SIP orders, just home. People are going to be tired of it long before it is done here.

Because by then we'll have been home for more than two months, maybe three? Once we are clearly on the downhill side, I think we will get together with one other family who has kids my kids are friends with, so it isn't like we'll be going crazy with it. It will be summer and we can have them over for a cookout.

I think this is true. My parents are much more...accepting? philosophical? than I am. They are taking the vitamins I sent them and mom listened carefully when I told her to use the pulse oximeter that I ordered for them last week. They aren't being stupid, but they also aren't panicking. We have been careful. We actually started staying home more than a week before it was suggested most places. We've been home for almost 6 weeks and it is just now hitting our area. We will continue at home until it peaks in our area. After that, we will widen our circle a bit.

Almost 3 million people died in the US in 2019, about 8,000 per day.

The goalposts have absolutely been moved. I think the powers that be knew they wouldn't get buy in if they had said months at the beginning, especially if they had said many months. If you wanted to, you could go back and see the change of language on this board. And, no, I am not going to look for links. My area is just beginning to have an increase in cases. I think we will be hit hard in the next couple of weeks. Hopefully not too hard, but we won't know until we weather it. After the worst has past here locally, we (my family) will evaluate how to proceed. We will continue to be careful, but I doubt we will be as limited as we are now.

Unless there is clear reason not to, we will see my parents in June or July.

I read that article yesterday, and I couldn't decide which part of it was the most absurd. I think I have decided on the anti-conservative bias. We all know that the homeschool world is diverse and becoming more diverse all the time. But even if it were 90% conservative Christians, so what? It isn't bad being either conservative or Christian. And it isn't bad to want to raise conservative Christian kids. Her bias is blatant and ugly. It amuses me that she feels homeschool kids are lacking "ideas about nondiscrimination and tolerance of other people’s viewpoints,”. Oh, the irony!

This reminded me of a time when my sister answered 0 to a math problem in college. The answer was negative, but it was asking about crop yield. Since there would be no yield, she answered 0. She and the teacher did not see eye to eye on it. LOL

It isn't just the money for the move. We have been moved three times with Dh's job and paying the movers is only a small part of that.

Dd16 would be in charge, but the next three would be pretty well self-sufficient. They would all look after Dd5. We should have plenty of food in the house, but they could ask a neighbor to drop milk off by the door.

could you tell me if it would be worth it in this case? My daughter has finished level two. She likes AAR, but she is my only child to have used it. My others have all started with the HOP yellow book and then moved on to Phonics Museum. At least one of them also did Turbo Reader or Pathway Readers in addition to Phonics Museum. After Phonics Museum, they read the picture books in First Favorites and then easy chapter books. My daughter finished AAR 2 in February, and I have dragged my feet on buying the next one mainly due to cost. I can buy it, I am not sure I should buy it. She has about 5 more Phonics Museum readers left and will then start reading the picture books. I have the Pathway Readers which she could start now. I have about 3 linear feet of easy readers that I have mostly accumulated from garage sales, as well as McGuffey's and other sets. I have the First Favorites books. I can give her enough practice reading without AAR, but she likes AAR and is fully expecting the next book to come any day. She continues to ask about it and has requested that they be given to her for her to use with her kids. Are the exercises in the book worth buying the whole program? Would the readers be worth getting on their own?

Have you ever driven through the midwest? (Not being snarky. Some people haven't and it can be hard to imagine for someone who hasn't done it.) There are some long, lonely stretches out here. We drove all day/night from IA to FL last fall. We drove from IA to NV in one day this spring. I drive the night stretches. The gas stations that cater to truckers were full over night, but so were the rest stops. When they pull over to sleep for the night, I am sure they would like to use the restroom both before and after sleeping. Truckers also have a very strict number of hours they can work. If they spent x number of hours per day in a dump or loading line on a given day, they only get y hours for driving, including any stops they make. If they have fewer places to stop, the places they can stop will be busier (slower) and more crowded.

We've spent more on groceries. I always have some in the pantry, but with a family of 7 we could be quarantined for a long time if a sickness passes through the whole family. I am trying to get a bit more each time we go than what we actually need. It is tricky because I won't take anything that is low in stock in case someone has an immediate need. So some things I am buying are more expensive. I am also buying more snacks. Our family can eat a bag of chips in one sitting. I don't usually buy chips, but if they add a bit more fun to a family movie or game night.... So I am buying enough snacks to get something out a few times per week. It is all adding up to 50-100 more per week, at least. Eventually we will eat it down, so we will have some lower shopping trips in the future. Gas is way down. We are spending about $20/two weeks on gas. Dh has to drive almost half an hour to work, and he has to work in the office every other week. He can drive my vehicle which gets better gas mileage, since I don't have anywhere to go. Those two things balance each other pretty well, but we are spending way, way more right now than we would if life was normal. I have already spent more money at the local game store than I would otherwise. For my son's sake, I really want him to stay in business. I will continue to spend money there during this cards, since he is selling gift cards now. And we will pay a year's tuition to the dojo this month (for 7 people, plus adding Jui Jitsu for Dd10). We will also purchase a number of things that we may or may not have purchased eventually. Ds13 wants to mess around with a kama form while we are home, for example. Most of our extra spending is focused on keeping the two local businesses most important to us doing well.

I prebought candy and reuse everything else each year (baskets, plastic eggs, grass), so the only difference will be staying home for church.

The neighbor kid asked if we had been quarantined for two weeks. He wanted to hang out with Ds15. We weren't fully quarantined- Dh had been to the office 8 days prior and I had been to the grocery store 7 days prior. If both families had been fully quarantined, we would have let them get together.

We will buy several gift cards from the local game store during this time to cover the once per week play my son will do when things open up again.

Maybe you could ask her if she will sell gift cards during this time?

The people I know are taking this seriously and are not gathering even when they technically are allowed. I went grocery shopping last week. Dh didn't leave our property at all. It is his turn to work in the office this week. I will probably go grocery shopping again this week. I'd like for him to stop and get some fruit trees, because I was too late last year. But I am still debating whether or not it would be worth the extra stop.