Covid: Tool for location based Risk Level calculation for attending events

[mathnerd]

If you are planning to travel for the holidays, you can check the current risk level at your destination using Georgia Tech's covid Risk Assessment Tool (or even in your own county if you want to know how your hometown is affected).

It shows the risk level of attending an event, given the event size and location. The risk level is the estimated chance (0-100%) that at least 1 COVID-19 positive individual will be present at an event in a county, given the size of the event.

Here is the tool: https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu

PS: the other larger threads might already have a link to this tool, not sure if it was posted before.

[Lady Florida.]

Wow, people broke the site! Here's the message I got. I guess it's good that people want to know the risk.

Too Many Users

Sorry, but this application has exceeded its quota of concurrent users. Please try again later.

[IfIOnly]

15% for a gathering of 15 in our county. We have a two week statewide freeze though starting Nov 18, and only 6 people max from 2 households max are allowed for indoor gatherings, except faith-based, which is still 25 indoor and 50 outdoor. No visitation in long-term health care facilities either. We always spend Thanksgiving and Christmas alone anyway. No family nearby and friends all have family things going on. 

Edited November 14, 2020 by IfIOnly

[Carrie12345]

Thank you for that.  One of our organizations intends to decide on the status of their planned Christmas party next week.  It’s almost entirely decided to cancel, but not official yet.  I counted myself out weeks ago.  The CURRENT calculation is a minimum of 33% risk.  That’s obviously unlikely to go down in the next several weeks.

[Ottakee]

Does this model predict numbers based on the idea that most attendees will come from different households?

I just wondered if the risk is lower if the group is 10 people, 5 from each of 2 households vs the risk of 10 people from 10 households gathering together.

 

[J-rap]

22 minutes ago, Ottakee said:

Does this model predict numbers based on the idea that most attendees will come from different households?

I just wondered if the risk is lower if the group is 10 people, 5 from each of 2 households vs the risk of 10 people from 10 households gathering together.

 

Darn, I found a tool the other day where you choose both the number of people and the number of households involved.  I can't seem to find it now, but I'll keep looking and post it if I do.

[Carrie12345]

14 minutes ago, Ottakee said:

Does this model predict numbers based on the idea that most attendees will come from different households?

I just wondered if the risk is lower if the group is 10 people, 5 from each of 2 households vs the risk of 10 people from 10 households gathering together.

 

I didn’t try to look into the methods used, and I’m not a good stats person, but I assume it’s a sort of average for all individuals. Like, my youngest boys have 0 risk contribution through their individual actions, but dh and dd bring them higher risk. Sending just the two of them to someone else’s house isn’t going to make the other household all that much safer than taking in all 6 of us.  They carry the average of all of our risk.

If you take in 10 people who have quarantined, your actual odds will be better than just taking my two actual kids.  But, to make math work in a generalized manner, you have to work with averages rather than individual circumstances.  One high-risk person in a random group of ten might be more risky than my family of 6 put together, depending on what their actual actions are.

It’s still a relatively useful guide for groups without detailed information about each individual.

[Bambam]

I've used the GA Tech risk assessment tool for several months. BUT, I've noticed now that with our local sky-rocketing case numbers (42.99 cases/100,000 - much higher than it has ever been before), the risk assessment for my county is now 60% (going down) for a group of 50. But earlier in the year, with case numbers much smaller, it often had a risk assessment of 87-98% for the same size group.  I haven't looked to see where they get their data from nor what their calculations are based on, but for my county, I do still look at it, but I don't take it as the final answer. For my county, I think it is way off. Either that or the calculations are 3 weeks behind the current increasing loads.  It doesn't make sense with increasing cases, risks are going down.