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wathe

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Everything posted by wathe

  1. I think it just takes a long time. Canada has plans for a Novovax plant, but that's at least a year away. mRNA vaccines are complicated to make. That kind of infrastructure takes years to develop. We had a conservative government 2006-2015 that defunded government science and research programs. Now we are paying for that.
  2. If we ever get what we've bought. You are right that we've contracted for 4x as much as we need, and plan to give away the extra. But supply has been a serious issue - we don't actually have very much. We do not have any domestic production. We are at the mercy of export bans, including the US export ban @Lady Florida. posted about upthread. The US did send us a shipment of AstraZeneca (only because it's not approved there and would otherwise go to waste - which touches on @Farrar's point about countries not really feeling super grateful for getting what amounts to other countrie
  3. We've kept schools open, for the most part (they are closed in Toronto and a few other hotspot health units). It's actually the best thought-out and sensible shut-down order we've had so far.
  4. Provincially, we are at about 2% fully vaccinated and about 18% have had their first shot. We desperately need supply. The forecast is that all adults who want to be vaccinated will have the opportunity by July. (Were now booking 60+ year-olds, with all appointments filled to April 18th.)
  5. Here too. Covid ICU numbers are already hundreds higher than they were at the height of the last peak (572 today, vs 410 at peak of last wave), case numbers are higher, and the slope of our curve us ugly-steep. We are in a stay-at-home order that just started 3 days a go. Hospitals were all ordered to cancel elective procedures as of yesterday to make capacity, and the province just issued orders allowing for hospital transfers without consent, and allowing community HCW to be deployed to hospitals. The Toronto pediatric tertiary care centre (Hospital for Sick Children) has opened
  6. "Sports physicals" aren't really a thing here for youth recreational sports. They might be for elite athletes (I don't know), but that's not most kids in sport. And presumably these would be extra visits for return-to-play clearance post acute covid. Some youth sports do have requirements like this for return-to-play post concussion.
  7. Oh, I know how careful you are, and I absolutely believe that you really are as careful as you think you are. And, if I were hypothetically pregnant in a similarly tight bubble, I'd still vaccinate.
  8. All of this is valid, of course. What you would do during your hypothetical pregnancy, and what would worry you, sounds different than what I would do, and what would worry me. The individual R/B analysis will be imperfect, because the data are limited. Good individual R/B analysis might even be impossible for this right now, because we don't have enough granularity in the data yet. I think that we do have enough to make recommendations on a population level though. That strongly colours my opinion (Obviously, everyone should weigh the risks and benefits for themselves and make a we
  9. Also, my perspective on this tends to be from a population point of view. Populations are, of course, made up of individuals making individual decisions - I recognize that.
  10. Speaking for myself, If I were in your situation, during pandemic conditions, I probably would. Because the virus is a sneaky little devil. Because the actual vaccination data that we have, limited as it is, is reassuring. Because even the most careful can't control their future exposure - illness, accident, mishap, or situational emergency necessitating contact with the outside world can happen at any time (household emergencies necessitating repair people in the house, or medical emergencies including minor ones like for stitches). The probability of something going wrong in life that ne
  11. Sure, in and ideal world we'd all like that. But people who are pregnant ri now, i real world pandemic conditions now, have to make decisions now, with the data we've got now. Which favours vaccination. We have to do the best with what we've got.
  12. Right. I do think that people in general, under-estimate their real exposure risk, over-estimate how "careful" they are, and misunderstand data and statistics. Which will lead to excess deaths and excess morbidity in pregnant women who decline the vaccine because they are "careful"
  13. I think your definition (and practice) of careful might not match the popular reality 🙂
  14. The idea that pregnant women should instead be careful and limit their exposure (ETA as an alternative to vax) seems flawed to me. 1) lots and lots of pregnant women just can't - essential work etc and 2) even those who think they are being very careful usually aren't as careful as they think they are- limiting exposure is actually really, really hard. If I had a dollar for every covid patient I've seen who tells me "but I've been so careful" and "I don't go anywhere", I would have quite a lot of money!
  15. Yes to the bolded. Re what I would do personally if pregnant: I would vax. My exposure risk is higher than average and the benefit would clearly exceed the risk. FWIW, my pregnant (n=3) and breastfeeding (n=3) MD colleagues got vaccinated at the first opportunity (January for us). None declined.
  16. It is expensive at a systems/population level though. Most kids with covid have mild cases, and, here at least, most don't get any formal follow up at all (and beyond a test and a public health phone call, many may never have even seen an MD at all throughout their course of illness). And there are a lot of them. Necessitating an MD visit for return to rec level sport is a whole lot of MD visits that otherwise wouldn't take place. I'm interested to see if Canada follows suit - I suspect we won't.
  17. Vaxed vs not vaxed in pandemic conditions. Lots and lots of people are catching covid during the pregnancy time frame. Vs no evidence of harm from the vaccinec (and no plausible mechanism for harm) ETA and very good evidence of protection from the vaccine.
  18. I see. Where I am, I think the calculus for pregnant women is in favour of the vax, by a wide margin. We are in pandemic conditions here, with cases spiking. We have good reason to believe that pregnant women do worse with covid than non-pregnant women; and more importantly, people with covid definitely do worse than people who don't get covid; and that the vaccine is 95% effective. We do not have any evidence to suggest the vaccine is harmful for pregnant women, and we do not have a plausible mechanism by which the vaccine might be harmful to pregnant women. SOGC strongly recommend
  19. Are you talking about the term "significant" with respect to statistics? Because you were using the term with respect to data in a study, I am assuming you are. A lot of people think that "significant" means meaningful, or important. But it doesn't. It means a detectable difference not due to chance. In a statistical sense, "not significant" literally means no difference between groups, that the outcome for each group is statistically the same, that statistically, the difference is due to chance, that a difference was not statistically detectable. The opposite of what you seem t
  20. For emphasis: ICU admissions are already the highest they have ever been for covid, and we are just locking down now. This wave is nowhere near its peak yet. We're in big, big trouble.
  21. Add Canada to your slow-to-vax and now-in-big-trouble list. My province is in big, big trouble. Covid hospital admissions and ICU numbers at the highest levels since the pandemic started. Patients are younger. All attributed to the variants. Provincially, only 2% of the population is fully vaxed, and only 16% have had their first dose - supply has been an enormous problem since we are 100% dependent on import and do not have any domestic production. Our strictest lockdown of the whole pandemic will go into effect at midnight tonight. "Ontario has reported on average more than 2,
  22. I'm curious to know your sample size and sample characteristics (genuinely!). I'm sure some of the difference is local culture (I'm in Canada, where there is generally less vaccine hesitancy and generally more compliance with public health measures, I think). My sample is comprised of MDs with privileges at a large community hospital that's university affiliated and a satellite teaching centre, for what that's worth. As far as I know (and covid vax has been the hot topic of MD small talk for months here, and my sample size is in the 100's), not a single one has declined. RN's, I kn
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