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  1. I'm not sure I see the difference. If I roll a dice, the outcome is completely predictable and deterministic, if I could somehow measure the precise initial conditions of the dice as it leaves my hand, and the conditions of the environment it bounces on, and if I could someone compute the physics involved. But we consider that infeasible, so we just say informally that the result of a fair dice roll is random. Likewise, with Moxie's friend who started a company, perhaps the success or failure of her company could be completely deterministic, if only she knew everything about all possible things that impacted the success of her company -- competitors entering or leaving, technology changes, weather, etc. etc. etc. But, like the physics of the dice, that's infeasible, so we say we can't 100% predict the success of the venture, and in the same way, the result is random. Perhaps not as random as a dice roll, but if you are starting a company, and you can't predict the outcome, you are to some degree, relying on luck for your success. In your language, you say "Randomness means there is no predictability". and "Risk means that a particular outcome is not 100%". I would say that if a particular outcome is not 100%, then it is not predictable. What am I missing?
  2. I don't know what "=\=" means, but risk means randomness is involved in the outcome. If something is a sure thing, there is no risk. I don't know why this bugs people so much. If someone takes a risk and succeeds, luck is at least partially at play. The dictionary defines risk as "The possibility of loss".
  3. To me, "risk" means that there is a non-trivial amount of randomness controlling the outcome.
  4. Please forgive the minor rabbit trail, but this touches on something I've been thinking about. Why is risk-taking seen as so critical to success these days? It seems so un-American to rely on taking risks to get ahead. Fundamentally, taking a risk means relying on luck, and the United States still has at our core the Puritan ideas of hard work, delayed gratification, and investment (perhaps in oneself) as key to success. Randomness as a key factor to success seems foreign and wrong to me. Obviously, there are no sure things, but it strikes me that the most American approach to that is to reduce risk by hard work, education, research, etc., not just by rolling the dice and taking a risk. I feel like we've completely lost the meaning of the work "risk". We use it colloquially as Moxie did above when talking about starting a business, but how much the the daughter really risk? Was she ever in danger of becoming homeless and not knowing where her next meal might come from if her business failed? I doubt it.
  5. I would also make sure that at least some of the questions are based on research you've done about that particular school. i.e. for the professor or academic advisor ask something like: "After looking at your catalog, I believe I would pass out of Math XXX and YYY, and my freshman year, I'd like to take ZZZ and BBB, does that sound right to you? I've sketched out a possible four year plan in my major, how does this look to you with these classes?".
  6. Couple of thoughts: I don't know what your Mom's vision is like, but a friend's mum with failing eyesight loves, loves, loves Siri. It has been life changing for her. I might consider getting one of those wireless charging do-hickeys, so she never needs to mess with those fiddly small plugs, just set it down in the right place.
  7. There hasn't been a single airplane crash fatality since 2009 in the US, which is really remarkable if you stop to think about how many flights there are every single day. For all we like to complain about the inconveniences of modern flying, the airlines, airplane builders and FAA are really on the ball when it comes to safety.
  8. The reason I won't fly Spirit airlines is that 1.) Most of their routes have 1 flight per day, or less; and 2.) They don't have interline agreements with other airlines to take passengers when flights are cancelled or delayed. The a-la-carte pricing of features other airlines may bundle into one price doesn't bother me, they are up front with that, and if you read their website, there shouldn't be any surprises there. But, if your flight is cancelled for weather or other reasons, and you are on a route where they only fly one plane a day, you are guaranteed to wait at least 24 hours before there's a free seat. As there is no certainty that the next flight will have enough free seats, you may have to wait several days to be accommodated, and without being reimbursed for hotels or meals. That risk isn't worth a few tens of dollars of difference in price for me. Maybe not even hundreds of dollars.
  9. The name "not-so-big" is a bit unfortunate. Perhaps "purpose-built" is a better idea. I would say that her ideas are that if you can afford a custom built house, you should also be able to afford a custom architect who can design it according to your needs. i.e. If you are the sort of family who never ever uses a formal dining room, perhaps your house doesn't need one. If you need a quiet place to read in a room where you can still see young kids playing, but maybe not hear every squeal, perhaps you could use an "away room". etc.
  10. In the spirit of trying to point out what I do like, as opposed to knocking that which I dislike, I'd like to share the "not so big house" architect, Sarah Susanka, whose work I puffy-heart love, and had I the money, would love to build a house like that. Her philosophy is that too many people try to maximum square footage per dollar, whereas she tries to maximize utility per square foot. Check out notsobighouse.com for non-mcmansions.
  11. Actually, violent crime rates have significantly decreased over the last 20 years.
  12. Like it or not, whether we are extreme free-range parents, extreme over-protectors, or something in the middle, all of our kids are guinea pigs in this experiment of parenting. Nothing is certain, and the conditions are always changing.
  13. Boy, that's a tough situation. I do think there's an aspect of this that a lot of folks have skipped over -- he didn't know it would be so expensive. Maybe she didn't either. Probably it isn't the kind of restaurant that has the menu posted outside, and I'm guessing that a teenager doesn't know all the conventions that point to the expense of any given restaurant. I can see how it would be really, really hard to leave after having been seated and handed a menu. I don't think I've ever done that. Maybe the lesson is to always "check the online reviews" of any new restaurant before trying it out, which is code for googling for prices before agreeing to go. Best of luck whatever happens.
  14. Forgive me for continuing to not answer your original question, but there's something important here. I think there's still all kinds of informal sources of valuable information at college, but it is on the individual student to go out and find this information, and evaluate how accurate or applicable it may be. Making connections with upperclassmen, especially in your major, can be very useful. A major-related club can be a great way to do this. Having conversations with professors that don't just revolve around grades and test scores is another. Graduate students and TAs can often be veritable founts of knowledge. In some places, the departmental secretaries know more about what is going on than anyone. Obviously, your advisor is a big part of the picture, but the more people you talk to, the better view you get of that picture, but the student has to take the initiative to find this information.
  15. I, too, went through the old-fashioned, low-tech process, where we walked around to different buildings to register for classes in those departments. What I now appreciate about that process is that you talked to a live human being (usually a TA) for every class, in your major or not, that you were about to take. And even though those TAs weren't bona-fide advisors, they all knew their particular department well, and could give useful, though last-minute advice about what to take, or not to take.
  16. Some colleges have major-specific advisers composed of faculty in that department. Other colleges, especially for undecided majors, or maybe for underclassmen, have general purpose full-time advisers, staff who aren't faculty. I think a lot of problems can happen when being advised from the latter category, as there is no way any one person can understand all the details of all programs in a college or university of any size.
  17. Totally agree with the above. I remember in grammar school being in the path of a partial (?) eclipse, and the one thing I remember is how quickly the temperature dropped, and what that felt like. I totally wouldn't have gotten that feeling from watching the eclipse over the internet. That temperature drop made me understand how much energy we get from the sun, and how pre-scientific people must have been terrified by the loss of the sun.
  18. Boy, seems like he's come a long way. This must have been hard for you, but you seem to have a great relationship with him, and you should be very proud of that. If it were me, I would tell him that he need to keep his stocking job, but his new task is to figure out what a good long-term job would be, and how to prove to himself that this new job would be something he can do, something he can be good at, and something that he won't hate. He's learned something from the stocking job -- that he doesn't like it. I would ask him to think about, and maybe write down why he doesn't like it, and think about jobs that he would like that don't have those characteristics. Maybe get some career books from the library, like "What Color Is My Parachute". Maybe have some talks and do research about the jobs he thinks he'd like, and try to verify that he would indeed like those jobs. I don't know how social he is, but I think that a lot of the video game companies have very large teams of programmers and artist building their games, that there is a lot more social interaction required than a lone programmer working in a basement. Here's a idea: he says he wants to write, and you say that he was good at grammar. I wonder if there are work-from-home online jobs as editors or proofreaders that he would be good at. It might have some of the aspects of writing that he like, but perhaps with a bit more structure that he may need, especially initially. Good Luck!
  19. I don't know much about Latin Alive, but no Latin program can have enough reading, so I'd start him out reading from the beginning in Cambridge. The early readings should be easy, but they are fun, part of a connected story, and he should be able to complete them quickly. When he slows down, that's where you can pick up. Typically, the first two Cambridge books are used together to complete one year of high schools Latin, then 3 and 4 are one year each themselves.
  20. While I applaud this young lady's work ethic, I would suggest that, if my math is correct, this works out to an hourly rate of $30 to $40 an hour, which may be possible for a hard-working teen nanny in Marin County, CA, but perhaps not in most places in this country. This reminds me how very unevenly distributed our economic recovery is.
  21. This is why, when the tyrant Julius Caesar was assassinated, Rome went back to being a republic, and never had another military emperor after that. Or, when Stalin died, the USSR immediately became a free-enterprise democracy, etc. etc. etc.
  22. Haven't done it, but it sounds like fun, if one could find the money and time. Looking at the deal site, though, my first thought was "if I could pick any 7 cities in a round-the-world trip, I'm not sure I'd choose those seven (London, Luxembourg, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Shanghai, New York, Frankfurt)". Then I spent the next few minutes daydreaming about what cities I would go to. Generally, I think the rule is you aren't allowed to backtrack -- So, thread-jacking, I'll ask the hive -- what 7 cities would you choose, without backtracking? And how long in each city?
  23. I think there's a lot of surprising side-effects of all of our new information technology, that as a whole, tend to mean fewer opportunities for lower-skilled or entry-level workers. Managers now have access to sophisticated scheduling software, and can more easily predict demand at their stores. Combined with better communication tools, businesses can micro-manage their scheduling so that hourly employees have the fewest possible hours per week. Grocery and other retail stores are pushing more customers to automated self-checkout lines. Gas stations now operate with no attendants for long stretches of time. Online retail is way more efficient, people-wise than local bricks and mortar. When we get self-driving over-the-road trucks, the shock to our economy will be deep.
  24. We have a neighbor girl, a great 16 year old, responsible, smart etc., who was so excited this summer to get her first real outside-the-house job. After many applications, she was finally hired by a well-known fast food chain. She told them, she'd be happy to work up to 30 hours a week during the summer, and would try to reschedule her other activities around work. In her first three weeks on the job, she's had 6 hours, 6 hours and 4 hours of work per week, with no prospect for any increases.
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