Is it just me, or has there been a shift?

[Dmmetler]

I just had an ad banner pop up for "The online MBA program you probably can't get into".

 

And I was thinking that this seems to be a major shift in how college was viewed. When I was looking at schools, the whole focus seemed to be "picture yourself here". Everyone applied to just a few schools, and most people got accepted by most or all of the schools they applied to.

 

Now it seems like the whole focus is "see how many people don't get in?", and people apply to many, many more schools, with the expectation that even amazing students WILL get rejected, but that by being accepted, you're somehow more special.

 

I don't know that I like it. I'm not a fan of "awards for everyone". but at the same time, I do feel that the college choice should be finding a great fit for the specific student, not winning some lottery. I've heard of students being rejected and waitlisted from even our local State U-which really isn't all that competitive (most 7th graders who qualify for talent search will have ACT scores in the upper 50% of their typical entering freshman class) who were more than capable of succeeding there.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SparklyUnicorn]

I still think there are plenty of schools that take plenty of average students.  Which makes sense because most students are probably average.

 

 

[creekland]

It's just an advertising gimmick.  If they make people think there's more competition than there is (for this online deal), then more will want it.  They've shown that more people call phone numbers with TV advertising if they are told "Lines are busy, so keep calling!" rather than "Operators are waiting now, so call!"

 

It probably is similar for lottery schools (undergrad), but those schools also often are the best with aid and are highly rated overall giving a couple of completely different draws than just competition.

[Jen in NY]

I think there has been a shift in advertising. It is a huge business and colleges are hiring PR firms to handle the marketing. Even in the last two years, since my older daughter applied to school, there seems to have been a huge uptick in the e-advertising ... my second daughter received an obscene number of e-mails daily from colleges marketing their wares. A lot of them had nothing to do with what she was interested in at all... they just bought some list of kids that had taken a standardized test and her name was on it. It is seriously nuts. Lucky for me I am a cynical you-know-what, and my kids, having inherited my genes, are not interested in the least in the slick mailers and 'click here' emails. Ironically, instead of distinguishing the colleges from each other, all the marketing is very similar, so even schools that are very different from each other look the same. Except UChicago. They have interesting stuff. They are the only one.

 

Because of the stupid rating systems and common app, application rates soar. Is it really more competitive? Or are more people just applying to more places? Or are people self selecting to apply to the right type of schools for them?

 

But yes. In all of this, I want to ask, what will my student actually learn if she comes to your school? It is a school, after all. What will the courses be like? What will the job prospects be? Are people intellectually curious? That kind of stuff is rarely addressed.

 

ETA: I am not disparaging at all what actually goes on at the colleges my daughters attend(ed) ... they have had great learning experiences and professors at the local community community college and at a well known Universities. It's the marketing process that I take issue with. Ick.

 

 

[musicianmom]

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Edited May 22, 2022 by musicianmom

[FaithManor]

Seriously?! I thought it was automatic admission if you met minimum requirements. Has that changed?

No, there is no such thing as automatic admission.

 

Our ds will be attending U of MI. A friend's daughter who had more AP's and a slightly higher ACT (both of them in the range that placed them in the top 20% of the typical freshman class at U of MI) but slightly lower GPA, was rejected. We suspect it was his participation in TARC or his letters of recommendation or the fact that they have been trying harder for economic diversity and so her zip code may have dinged her...not certain. It's a quirky thing these days.

 

Minimum requirements are simply suggestions of what the bottom is that they will accept, but that doesn't mean the student gets in for meeting them. If the rest of the applicant pool has done more, or has some other attribute that is desirable to the school, it's entirely possible to be waitlisted and or rejected even as a very strong, competitive student.

[creekland]

No, there is no such thing as automatic admission.

 

Our ds will be attending U of MI. A friend's daughter who had more AP's and a slightly higher ACT (both of them in the range that placed them in the top 20% of the typical freshman class at U of MI) but slightly lower GPA, was rejected. We suspect it was his participation in TARC or his letters of recommendation or the fact that they have been trying harder for economic diversity and so her zip code may have dinged her...not certain. It's a quirky thing these days.

 

Minimum requirements are simply suggestions of what the bottom is that they will accept, but that doesn't mean the student gets in for meeting them. If the rest of the applicant pool has done more, or has some other attribute that is desirable to the school, it's entirely possible to be waitlisted and or rejected even as a very strong, competitive student.

 

Seeing a little bit more of what is going on, I'm thinking zip code can be a big deal - either pro or con.  I don't know that it's economic diversity as much as geographical diversity - even within a state.  I'm thinking our more rural location is actually a hook for many schools as long as those schools are more than 3-4 hours from us and as long as students have reasonable stats for the school.  It doesn't help below average students get in (I'm sure of that), but it helps those with reasonable or good stats get in at higher percentage rates.

[Guest aliana04]

When I was applying to college, I remember being told to cross my fingers--that just because I had good grades, that didn't mean I would get in. My impression was the colleges were seen as doing us a favor by accepting us. That was possibly just the way my guidance counselor liked to run things, though. :-(

[Guest]

People respond with more interest to exclusivity than inclusivity in advertising. Sad but true. It's the sports car effect. If everyone had one, the cachet would be lessened.

[musicianmom]

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Edited May 22, 2022 by musicianmom

[FaithManor]

Creekland, I think that in her case, location is probably key though I can't prove it. She went to a private, prep school in a wealthy neighborhood and of the 75 graduates that year, 3/4 of the class applied to U of MI and most of them did so thinking it was a "safety" which just kind of cracks me up because UHM it may be a state school but it is currently ranked in the top 30, and the same internationally as well. It's not a safety type school. She applied to it as her top and only choice. I can almost guarantee that the admission's department thought to themselves, "NO way are we going to achieve the diversity we seek by offering spots to 56 students from the same school!

 

I do think the other thing that might have been a ding is she had mostly 3's and 4's on her 12 AP's, and a GPA of 3.79 but declared a "pre-med" major. In their minds, that might mean she would iffy in terms of MCAT scores and if there is one thing that U of MI doesn't want if they can help it, an undergraduate that not only won't get into their med school but no one else's either.

 

That said, we hail from a rural area with a low college attendance rate and of those that attend four year uni's, the good students nearly always head to MSU, the Big Ten rival of U of MI and they like nothing other than to steal each other's prospective students, and those that aren't in the top 25% of their classes usually do not apply to MSU and just go to Central or super, duper but very cheap crappy state U in the city west of here, or they head to one of the two good CC's. There are VERY FEW from this area that ever apply to U of MI, so that may have been a boon to ds.

 

 

[FaithManor]

Well, I went to the school that dmmetler is talking about. Twenty years ago it was everyone's safety, the commuter school that you chose kind of sheepishly if you couldn't afford anything else. So the idea of qualified applicants getting turned away is astounding.

It is largely due to the fact that there are about 2700 four year colleges and unis in the US and a record 3.5 million students applied to college this year. That is 1296 students per institution, many of these scholls not having that many seats to begin with so a lot more competition than when we wer e all applying to school. Due to the cost of room and board, good commuter schools with decent reputations are reporting triple to quadruple the number of applicants than even a decade ago but withlittle funding to build and hire faculty. That means they are seeing a much deeper applicant pool and can now afford to be very choosy for any number of criteria they deem important.

 

It is so different from when most of us applied to college.

[creekland]

It is largely due to the fact that there are about 2700 four year colleges and unis in the US and a record 3.5 million students applied to college this year. That is 1296 students per institution, many of these scholls not having that many seats to begin with so a lot more competition than when we wer e all applying to school. 

 

This is why I'm not so sure any bubble is going to burst overall, though I still expect some smaller schools to close.

 

Here's some interesting  gov't stats:  (And I've no idea if they are including foreign students or just US students.  Foreign students add quite a few to the population of some schools.)

 

http://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=372

 

Enrollment

In fall 2014, some 21.0 million students are expected to attend American colleges and universities, constituting an increase of about 5.7 million since fall 2000 (source).

Females are expected to account for the majority of college students: about 12.0 million females will attend in fall 2014, compared with 9.0 million males. Also, more students are expected to attend full time than part time (an estimated 13.0 million, compared with about 8.0 million, respectively)(source).

About 7.3 million students will attend 2-year institutions and nearly 13.7 million will attend 4-year institutions. Some 18.0 million students are expected to enroll in undergraduate programs and about 3.0 million will enroll in postbaccalaureate programs (source).

Increases in the traditional college-age population and rising enrollment rates have contributed to the increase in college enrollment. Between 2000 and 2012, the 18- to 24-year-old population rose from approximately 27.3 million to approximately 31.4 million (source). The percentage of 18- to 24-year-olds enrolled in college also was higher in 2012 (41.0 percent) than in 2000 (35.5 percent) (source).

In 2012, there were about 13 million students under age 25 and 8 million students 25 years old and over. Both the number of younger and older students increased between 2000 and 2012 (source).

[Crimson Wife]

Budget cuts and an increased set-aside of seats for higher-paying OOS and foreign students have played a major role in the increased selectivity of the UC's and Cal States. A few years back during the height of the recession our local Cal State branch had around a 35% acceptance rate, down from roughly 2/3. It has since rebounded back up to 2/3 but there were a LOT of local kids who got a nasty shock when their "safety" school rejected them.

 

ETA: Here's an article on it: http://www.sfgate.com/education/article/How-CSU-East-Bay-made-list-of-competitive-colleges-2325477.php

[FaithManor]

It seems that some of the state commuter schools admit the students, then require a certain gpa to be admitted to a particular dept. That weeds out the underprepared and nonserious. Then there will be what we saw as weeder courses.

I am seeing that as well. U of MI Flint is a commuter school but with a huge medical department - they are actually getting their ducks in a row to build a med school - and they've got some serious weeder courses now, and some of the students that get accepted and attend, can't get into their majors due to GPA or ACT section scores. The composite might be pretty good, but for nursing, if the math wasn't a 25 or above, good bye BSN program. Some of the nursing students take college pre-calc and then a placement exam to try to get admitted to pre-nursing, but it delays them a semester and puts them out of rotation for pre-requisites pretty much ensuring they do not graduate on time. A lot of the ones that do not get accepted into the department, either switch to ADN which does not include nasties like micro-biology and organic chemistry, or switch to a professional licensing program such as ultra-sound tech which is actually a really good job to have around here.

 

I agree with your post so much because we are also experiencing this in Michigan.

 

It used to only be a wide spread phenomenon in pre-med, engineering, music, and art - I remember all of those stressful, crazy auditions as a piano performance major...getting accepted to the school was easy, getting into the music department??Not so much, LOL. But now, it seems like there are many more majors that have additional admission requirements once the student gains admission to the university. It's probably another layer of research that parents and students need to do so that there aren't disappointing surprises.

[FaithManor]

Seeing a little bit more of what is going on, I'm thinking zip code can be a big deal - either pro or con.  I don't know that it's economic diversity as much as geographical diversity - even within a state.  I'm thinking our more rural location is actually a hook for many schools as long as those schools are more than 3-4 hours from us and as long as students have reasonable stats for the school.  It doesn't help below average students get in (I'm sure of that), but it helps those with reasonable or good stats get in at higher percentage rates.

I guess what I see happening is that as college becomes more and more out of reach in terms of affordability, this record number of applicants is going to drop dramatically. I already know of some pretty highly qualified kids who got into every school they applied to but couldn't afford them. They are all headed to a commuter college that's cheap. I have a hard time imagining that there are enough full pay foreign students and rich students to fill all 2700. I think that some smaller schools are definitely not going to make it, but I also think that at some point, something will have to happen to make school affordable for the middle class or more than just a few smaller LAC's and professional schools will close because of the inability of the middle class to afford them.

 

Right now it's bad. But when kids no longer think they have much of a prayer of affording a tier 1 school, I think the tide will change.

 

But, that's just my prediction. Who knows? Maybe there really are 3 million + rich and foreign kids looking to pay full freight here.

[Sebastian (a lady)]

The female:male spread above gives me pause. I knew that more women attended college and more women earned degrees. But a 3 million student disparity is a lot of students. And that would be a gap repeated every couple years.

 

(And yes it would concern me if the numbers were flipped.)

[Guest]

No, there is no such thing as automatic admission.

 

Our ds will be attending U of MI. A friend's daughter who had more AP's and a slightly higher ACT (both of them in the range that placed them in the top 20% of the typical freshman class at U of MI) but slightly lower GPA, was rejected. We suspect it was his participation in TARC or his letters of recommendation or the fact that they have been trying harder for economic diversity and so her zip code may have dinged her...not certain. It's a quirky thing these days.

 

Minimum requirements are simply suggestions of what the bottom is that they will accept, but that doesn't mean the student gets in for meeting them. If the rest of the applicant pool has done more, or has some other attribute that is desirable to the school, it's entirely possible to be waitlisted and or rejected even as a very strong, competitive student.

I echo this. My DD did not get into U of MD, College Park, despite good stats and we have lived here all our lives. Numerous people were shocked that she was not accepted there, but I think UMDCP is trying to elevate their image (though it is good already). I also think that the athletics department has made this school more desirable in recent years; there may indeed be more applicants than ever before. Yes, there are some state publics here that most everyone puts as safety, though barely anyone longs to attend, but I also think a few of our state publics are working hard to stand out as a choice college, happy to take OOS tuition from neighboring state students.

[creekland]

The female:male spread above gives me pause. I knew that more women attended college and more women earned degrees. But a 3 million student disparity is a lot of students. And that would be a gap repeated every couple years.

 

(And yes it would concern me if the numbers were flipped.)

 

I suspect this reason is because many of the still available non-college options (several trades like plumbing, electric, HVAC, mechanics, drafting, construction, etc, plus farming & military) tend to appeal more to guys than to gals.  Some gals follow those paths, but very few comparatively - at least if our school is truly average.  

[Mom22ns]

No, there is no such thing as automatic admission.

 

There is such a thing, even if it is not at the schools you are looking at. All Missouri State U's have an ACT score that gives guaranteed admissions. The score varies from 22-27, but admission is automatic with that score. That doesn't guarantee admissions to a particular division or major, but to the University.

 

There are still plenty of schools out there for average kids, even if they aren't always YOUR local state U.

[luuknam]

From what I've read, top schools also don't want to accept students who aren't going to attend, because it looks bad for their statistics. So even if they have a great applicant, if they think the kid will get into other schools the kid is more likely to attend, they may turn the kid down. I don't know to what degree that's true, but I wouldn't be too surprised if it's at least to some degree true.

[Jen in NY]

From what I've read, top schools also don't want to accept students who aren't going to attend, because it looks bad for their statistics. So even if they have a great applicant, if they think the kid will get into other schools the kid is more likely to attend, they may turn the kid down. I don't know to what degree that's true, but I wouldn't be too surprised if it's at least to some degree true.

 

This can be managed to some extent by 'showing interest.'