The UP has long stretches with NOTHING, no truck stops, no restaurants, no grocery stores. Northern Michigan has very long stretches of nothing but trees as well. Al the more reason to allow people to buy plants to grow food. I don’t get the impression that the UP is really on her radar very often.

Yes it’s dumb, but not surprising given the source. Don’t forget stores, greenhouses can’t sell what they are already growing even with curbside pickup, but restaurants still can do curbside delivery. How is that any safer? Amazon can deliver these supplies...great way to support business in your state.

never mind...double quoted the wrong thing

I am one of those super *not* happy. We live in Oakland county and I am fine with the stay at home until the end of April, but that woman is just on a power trip in my opinion. How can you possibly have a brain if you say gardening supplies are non essential in Michigan until the end of April? But never fear, she did go on the news yesterday to declare the Easter Bunny and Tooth Fairy are essential workers in case you were concerned.

Are you not allowed to take walks? That is one of the few things keeping us sane right now.

That makes sense to not throw things out that still have life left in them while there are shortages or while things can be put to use. Long term, I will still probably give things away if I can place them with a good home (like homeschool books or the fabric you mention) because fabrics and elastics deteriorate over time. My dad is depression era and he keeps *everything* so there has to be balance. If you were to see my house, you would be able to see that we have not embraced minimalism to this point. I have to work on bringing less in...I am overrun by Legos. edited to add - I think the minimalism we should be striving for is not the purging and throwing things out or donating things to make ourselves feel good that really no one will use (that has been what is popular lately-places like Salvation Army don’t actually have a use for all the clothing donated), but actually buying less stuff, and being will to spend enough to buy things that are well made and don’t fall apart. The current problem is that expensive clothes aren’t necessarily much better made since everyone has jumped on the make it cheap bandwagon. Our desire for those disposable clothes to just pick up without thinking as we stroll through target and lots of cheap stuff in general is a big part of our reliance on China (and other poor countries) for cheap labor regardless of the social and environmental problems caused.

That is sort of my point. Unless you know the specific underlying assumptions of every iteration of the model then it is impossible to use the results in any meaningful way. Did the predictions change because they changed the assumptions or because the situation on the ground changed? The data posted earlier today had charts for 50 states that have full social distancing in the title to make their predictions of peak resource needs, but actual implementation is different between different states. Are they assuming where every state would hypothetically be if they implemented the strictest measures then it isn’t very useful as a short term tool or does it assume where they will be if they keep on their current plans.

I like this list as well. I see people out walking their dogs in all sorts of weather. I have no desire for a pet, but decided I should start walking myself every day. We also live walking distance to Kroger and I really never learned good shopping habits. Quill, I like your list as well, but am a bit confused about the last item. Why aren’t you decluttering any more because of covid? The more we are in the house the more I can’t handle all the stuff.

This is the first time I have looked at these models, so forgive me if this is a dumb question. What are they considering to be “full social distancing until May”? Actually I think it said through May. Does that mean until May 1 (the end of the federal slow the spread) or the end of May. There is a statement in the FAQ that roughly says that any extra measures would be implemented within 7 days, but what measures and 7 days from when? If the model is assuming behavior not yet implemented then I don’t think it provides a valid short term prediction. The problem with modeling in general, not just medical, is it is only as good as the background assumptions made.

My sentiments exactly as I was much more concerned about people eating cherry pie. I never buy the round silver sprinkles because they are so hard, but this was a mix that had some colorful round ones in it that I probably should have tried first. I didn’t buy them, but I am not sure getting to the bottom of why they are in the house is going to be well received. They are currently in the trash. This particular child has had more tooth issues than his three siblings combined. He chipped and eventually had to have his baby front tooth pulled when he tripped up the stairs in the garage as a toddler. His first permanent molar appeared between 6 month checkups and had a small hole that had a cavity in it already. My husband has had issues with his teeth which I used to think were do to nutritional issues growing up (they were pretty poor), but I am thinking may be somewhat genetic as this child has never lacked in that area.

Ok day...Mass online, short nap, rosary over zoom with MiL and SIL. Things fell apart after the rosary. Big kids had cherry pie for their dessert, but the two younger ones had ice cream and sprinkles. The 12yo chipped (not sure how bad) on one of the sprinkles. At least it is a baby tooth, but totally not what I needed tonight. It isn’t like I was encouraging to go learn skateboarding... He says it’s a dull pain, but not bad. I am not even sure how to deal with the dentist at this point...are they even open? We agreed to reevaluate in the morning.

Today started off with dh taking dd out for driving practice. I hope it aging him too much. I might pick quarantine over taking out a new driver. I did get a start at cleaning up some of my paperwork sitting around and graded a couple of tests. I also made my first attempt at cutting my youngest son’s hair. It probably should have been shorter, but I was worried about messing it up. He is six and is a moving target, but it looks ok. I will be happy to get him back to someone with experience (and speed).

I think scenarios like this are coming to the forefront during this crisis. Never before in human history have we had so much international ownership (and general corporate ownership of agriculture) and production of critical supplies. In this mad rush that we have had to find the absolute cheapest location to make goods and allowing purchases of domestic companies by foreign entities, I think the potential consequences have been overlooked. It is all a very tangled up mess that we are going to have to sort through. Any time one produces a product in a foreign country while being based in another country or registers a cruise ship in a foreign country one opens oneself up to a very big can of worms in an unstable situation. Hopefully we learn for the next time.

There is nothing about where we are globally that could be called a “good place”. There will be ruffled feathers and I think think is a good example of why closer attention should be paid to where important items are being produced. I hope that lesson won’t be forgotten once the crisis has passed. I don’t know all the details of the shipment to Germany, but it may be that they were not that company’s to sell to that buyer when the deal was made. Things to be thankful for...that I am not the one negotiating all these deals. I can barely keep my house clean without making people mad.

But wouldn’t the droplets from coughs and sneezes land on your hands which people promptly put to their face? I think there is a difference between hands and general surfaces/packages sitting on a truck for hours being the main means of transmission. Also, we are learning more about this new virus all the time so I don’t think the previous advice was wrong, but we have have learned more so they are adding recommendations rather than changing.

I can’t stand Menard’s and will never, ever give them my money again so it doesn’t surprise me they made some policy without thinking it through. Sure, as a general rule kids shouldn’t be on the shopping trip, but not everyone has the luxury of grocery delivery or pickup or leaving the kids at home. I leave my kids home because I can and I could afford delivery (if I could find a time slot), but it isn’t fair to place my decisions based on my options on other people with significantly fewer options and resources.

My father had a brother named Elbert

My sister is named Amy. My mom loved the named from Little Women, but the year my sister was born everyone on the face of the earth named their child Amy. When I came along my mom was determined never to let that happen again so the went digging through the family tree and came up with Dorinda. I also found it interesting that the original Ann Dorinda (circa early 1800’s) was married to a man named Major. others... Athur Monroe Olin

Our Costco here in SE Michigan was well stocked on Saturday. My dh was there maybe an hour after opening and it wasn’t too crazy and he did get toilet paper. There were limits on some items like canned chicken that weren’t posted that also surprised the cashier.

I currently live in Oakland county. Yes there are the super wealthy and upper middle class, but you also have areas bordering Detroit and Pontiac that would not be considered wealthy. Areas like Oak Park are mostly Orthodox Jewish and West Bloomfield is less Orthodox, but both with ties to New York. The other thing to consider with the numbers is the City of Detroit has its own health department and reports its own numbers. So the 2858 cases and 101 deaths in Detroit is for a population of 675,000. Wayne County is showing 2221 cases and 93 deaths. I believe Wayne County minus Detroit is about 1,100,000 population. Oakland County has 2183 cases and 119 deaths with a population of 1,250,00. Looking at cases by zip code the highest rates are in Southfield and Oak Park.

Wouldn’t Manhattan also be the richest, healthiest population? We have lots of cases in Detroit - not really particularly dense, very little mass transit, but very poor. Income doesn’t mean you will be healthy, but it does improve your ability to obtain healthy food over a long period of time and address medical concerns as they arise. Right now, money allows you to have stuff delivered or buy the more expensive brand so you don’t have to go to multiple stores. With all the talk about vitamin D, California should have that in spades over New York right now.

Does California have as much mass transit as New York. I would assume more time in close quarters, both in trains and stations increases exposure. Also, California has really nice weather this time of year and more people have likely been outside exercising rather than staying inside or exercising in gyms. I would assume starting out healthier makes for better outcomes. I know I am in overall better shape at the end of summer with actual sunshine - real vitamin D -than I am after a winter inside. As much as I mean to get out and exercise, it is really hard to motivate on short, cold, cloudy, snowy, windy days.

I buzzer my 3rd child because he threw such a temper tantrum when he was little. He likes his short. I am not ready for that with my youngest-I take him for a cut-but if I don’t cut it soon he is going to need a ponytail holder. I have been meaning to post asking for links to a good video on hair cutting.

I think the dvds were being re-recorded this past year. If the ones currently available are the older ones, then I would skip it. They are very boring and my kids wouldn’t watch them. The newer offerings from MP in the video department are much more polished in the production department. My first two did well solo with TL1, but my oldest did switch to the online academy for the higher levels. She found it much more interesting with a teacher.

What fine arts school is refusing to give refunds? I hadn’t heard that one. My niece is a conservatory student, but I haven’t asked my sister about refunds at the school...I don’t want to unintentionally open a wound if it happens to be hers.