Great blog post about PSAT Scores and what to expect for NMS cut-offs

[Ann.without.an.e]

http://blog.prepscholar.com/national-merit-semifinalist

 

 

A great explanation of how scores will change.  It looks like each state's cutoff should drop about 12 points lower than previous years.  This is using the current index listed on the printable/pdf report of the score from the college board.   The top range in the past was 240 and this year it is 228, dropping all state cut-offs accordingly. 

Edited January 8, 2016 by Charleigh

[Hot Lava Mama]

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Edited August 11, 2017 by Hot Lava Mama

[Ann.without.an.e]

So, this only matters, really, if the college DS wants to go to is a National Merit school, right?  I don't think the ones he is interested in does the National Merit.

 

 

Yes, technically.  Now some college prep counselors will argue that if your child can get NMS then it will be known that the student has multiple free ride options which will cause other schools to offer more competitive scholarship packages.  Is this true?  I have no idea.  DD has no interest in any of the full ride NMS because of their proximity to home but if it was the free ride or a lot of debt somewhere else she'd probably choose the free ride.

Edited January 8, 2016 by Charleigh

[RootAnn]

Totally anecdotal . . I was 5+ years out of college, sitting in a do-we-hire-this-person meeting at a major manufacturing company. Two of the bigwigs in the meeting were all hot on this just-out-of-college, no-experience-but-has-a-Masters guy that I wasn't impressed with at all. After listening to them (the two bigwigs) sing his praises and the rest of us point out all the shortcomings we noticed (vs. a couple of other candidates that we'd interviewed recently that had more experience/enthusiasm/personality), I finally asked them why they were so hot on this guy. Turns out that the two bigwigs missed being National Merit Finalists and this guy had it on his resume that he was a NMF coming out of high school. They were uber-impressed.

 

I couldn't believe it.  :confused1:  I guess if you didn't make it and it was really important to you, you're impressed with others who still have it on their resume 6+ years later.  :rofl:  (Me, I was a NMF, so I knew it didn't mean squat for the job they wanted him to do. He didn't turn out to be the worst hiring decision those particular bigwigs made, but he definitely wasn't good at his job. He went back to academia after a year.)

 

Moral of the story - It could help your kid get a job down the line.  :smilielol5:

[Luckymama]

I don't agree with prepscholar's assessment of a flat 12 point drop. If you read all the threads on CC about this year's scores you'll see all kinds of ideas. No one knows what will happen.

[Ann.without.an.e]

I don't agree with prepscholar's assessment of a flat 12 point drop. If you read all the threads on CC about this year's scores you'll see all kinds of ideas. No one knows what will happen.

 

[Ann.without.an.e]

Sorry, it isn't allowing me to quote. 

 

I can't go to CC.  I know that it will suck me in, ruin me for life, and I'll never be the same again. 

Edited January 8, 2016 by Charleigh

[Pawz4me]

So, this only matters, really, if the college DS wants to go to is a National Merit school, right?  I don't think the ones he is interested in does the National Merit.

 

That's my understanding.  And none of the schools oldest was interested in, nor any of them DS is interested in (so far) seem to give a rip about NM status.  So it's not something we've ever put any emphasis on.

[Ann.without.an.e]

I buy it mainly because I know the scores of a few top testers and they dropped at least 8 points this year.

 

 

I don't agree with prepscholar's assessment of a flat 12 point drop. If you read all the threads on CC about this year's scores you'll see all kinds of ideas. No one knows what will happen.

 

[Ann.without.an.e]

Don't do it! It will ruin you forever... (lol)

 

(Says the one who avoids CC like the plague.)

 

 

It would open a whole new world to stress over and it would give my overthinking-overplanning brain a stroke.  I know it would be the end of me.  Let's stick together :grouphug:

[Luckymama]

I buy it mainly because I know the scores of a few top testers and they dropped at least 8 points this year.

My disagreement is with the statement that there will be an across-the-board (-country?) drop of X points. I think that any drop will be more nuanced than that.

[Ann.without.an.e]

My disagreement is with the statement that there will be an across-the-board (-country?) drop of X points. I think that any drop will be more nuanced than that.

 

[LisaKinVA]

From what I read, the flat drop is mostly based upon the fact that a perfect score is now 12 points lower, topping out at 228 vs. 240.

[JoJosMom]

Sorry, it isn't allowing me to quote. 

 

I can't go to CC.  I know that it will suck me in, ruin me for life, and I'll never be the same again. 

 

If you can install firm mental shields, it can be kind of entertaining.  It does not speak well for human nature, though.

[Sebastian (a lady)]

There are some good details in the blog post about how the selection index is calculated, but I don't think it will be as easy as just subtracting 12 points from the previous index cutoff scores.

 

Cut off scores in each state have a bit of a wobble.  The necessary score goes up a down a few points each year depending on the scores of that particular cadre.  Keep in mind that the goal is to select a certain number of juniors, based on that state's population of high school students (and I think also participation in the PSAT).  

 

Factors the -12 approach cannot account for:

 

Actual scores by students who took the test in 2015.

-This could be affected by the change in test format (ie a student who scored an 80 on the 2014 test might only get a 740 on the 2015 test).  The attention to the revision might have encouraged more students to prep.  The alteration of the test might have caught students by surprise.  Schools might have placed a higher emphasis on test readiness.  Other schools might not have told their students that there was a revision at all.

 

Total number of students who took the test in 2015.

-I'm struggling to find the explanation today, but I read one from NMS in the past that explained the way that the size of the student population and participation in PSAT affected the number of semi-finalists for that state.  Not surprisingly, the higher the population the more SF spots.  However the percentile that the cut off score represents varies a fair amount from state to state.  In California it is 99%+.  In some small population state that are also lower stat states the cut off might be at the 98 or 97%.  If a state has adopted the SAT/PSAT as its state wide high school achievement test battery (as several states did this year, either as a first time adoption or switching from ACT), that might have a significant effect on the state's cut off score.

 

I think the best anyone can do at this point is say, hmm not bad we'll have to wait and see.  Or say clearly there are some areas I can work on and maybe I want to do that before I take the SAT.  Or maybe say this gives me some basis to think about what my after high school plans are.  

 

One thing I dislike about NMS is the way it makes students think that the difference in 1 point or ten points makes a significant difference in their options for college and in how their life is going to play out.  I do interviews for my alma mater.  Usually all I know going in is the student's test scores and high school.  There is not a strict correlation between test scores and student success, either in high school or in the college application process or in college academics.  At best there is a band of scores that give some clues to past performance and possible future performance.

 

 

I also know that as college looms, you try to find some things that are fixed points that you can draw some conclusions from.  I totally understand this and have been guilty of it too.  But you cannot change your kid's numbers if they've taken the test, and you have no way of influencing the cutoff scores.  So I think it's of more lasting benefit to focus on other things.  (Even if it's just going for a walk with your kid or playing a few rounds of Exploding Kittens.)

[Proudpapa77]

That blog post is almost a year old.  In other words it was written WAY before the actual PSAT test, and WAY before anecdotal reports started pouring in that the PSAT was much easier in 2015 than it was in 2014.  Not to beat a dead horse but I think the -12 across the board approach is WAY too simplistic.  The concordance tables, just released two nights ago, while not dispositive, are a better indicator in my opinion.  One thing we can all agree on - there will be a fair amount of anxiety between now and September.   

 

Edit - profuse apologies for my overuse of "WAY" 

Edited January 8, 2016 by Proudpapa77

[Ann.without.an.e]

That blog post is almost a year old.  In other words it was written WAY before the actual PSAT test, and WAY before anecdotal reports started pouring in that the PSAT was much easier in 2015 than it was in 2014.  Not to beat a dead horse but I think the -12 across the board approach is WAY too simplistic.  The concordance tables, just released two nights ago, while not dispositive, are a better indicator in my opinion.  One thing we can all agree on - there will be a fair amount of anxiety between now and September.   

 

Edit - profuse apologies for my overuse of "WAY" 

 

 

Are these tables posted anywhere?  Thanks

[Sebastian (a lady)]

Are these tables posted anywhere?  Thanks

 

https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/psat-nmsqt-psat-10/k12-educators/psat-nmsqt-concordance-tables

[Proudpapa77]

Here's a different "professional" estimate for the cutoffs - MUCH different from the -12 formula used by PrepScholar.  

 

http://collegeadmissions.testmasters.com/update-psat-scores-cut-national-merit-2016/

 

Edit - it should be noted that Test Masters also originally predicted a -12 cutoff, but this new estimate is based on the concordance tables.  From the article:

 

1. The old PSAT was scored from 60 to 240.  The new PSAT Index Selection Score is scored from 48 to 228, representing a shift of 12 points from the previous scale.

Given this, our initial approach to estimating the National Merit cutoff by state for the new October 2015 PSAT was to consider a likely shift in cutoff score by 12 points. Our previous estimation included a two-point margin buffer each way to account for errors or unexpected score results. Our second approach to estimating National Merit Semifinalists cutoff scores by state incorporates the data set provided by College Board’s Concordance Table, while also accounting for what will likely be a larger range of scores by state.

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Edited January 8, 2016 by Proudpapa77

[Proudpapa77]

A quick update on this thread - PrepScholar has completely revised their cutoff predictions and needless to say that cutoffs uniformly dropping by 12 points is no longer anticipated. 

 

http://blog.prepscholar.com/national-merit-semifinalist#comment-389888163

Edited January 21, 2016 by Proudpapa77