Time will tell if these numbers are accurate. State cutoff predictions from Compass: Compass apparently has strong confidence that these numbers are final. http://www.compassprep.com/national-merit-semifinalist-cutoffs/

Good luck to everyone eagerly awaiting the mail. Letters from the National Merit Scholarship Corp should be received this week.

A quick update on this thread - PrepScholar has completely revised their cutoff predictions and needless to say that cutoffs uniformly dropping by 12 points is no longer anticipated. http://blog.prepscholar.com/national-merit-semifinalist#comment-389888163

Figured I'd start a new thread for this one. Here are the early predictions from Test Masters regarding state cutoffs. This will surely change once the concordance tables are finalized, but right now this appears to be the best estimate on the web. http://collegeadmissions.testmasters.com/update-psat-scores-cut-national-merit-2016/

Here's a different "professional" estimate for the cutoffs - MUCH different from the -12 formula used by PrepScholar. http://collegeadmissions.testmasters.com/update-psat-scores-cut-national-merit-2016/ Edit - it should be noted that Test Masters also originally predicted a -12 cutoff, but this new estimate is based on the concordance tables. From the article: The old PSAT was scored from 60 to 240. The new PSAT Index Selection Score is scored from 48 to 228, representing a shift of 12 points from the previous scale.Given this, our initial approach to estimating the National Merit cutoff by state for the new October 2015 PSAT was to consider a likely shift in cutoff score by 12 points. Our previous estimation included a two-point margin buffer each way to account for errors or unexpected score results. Our second approach to estimating National Merit Semifinalists cutoff scores by state incorporates the data set provided by College Board’s Concordance Table, while also accounting for what will likely be a larger range of scores by state.

Just curious as there has been a lot of discussion about the new PSAT, the scores, and how they relate to last year. If you have a child who took the 2014 PSAT and also the 2015 PSAT, did the selection index score go up, down, or stay the same? Again, referring to the selection index, not the total score. Our child's index was 11 points higher in 2015.

That blog post is almost a year old. In other words it was written WAY before the actual PSAT test, and WAY before anecdotal reports started pouring in that the PSAT was much easier in 2015 than it was in 2014. Not to beat a dead horse but I think the -12 across the board approach is WAY too simplistic. The concordance tables, just released two nights ago, while not dispositive, are a better indicator in my opinion. One thing we can all agree on - there will be a fair amount of anxiety between now and September. Edit - profuse apologies for my overuse of "WAY"

A lot of people ASSUMED that the cutoffs this year will be 12 points lower than last year, but the concordance tables basically blew that assumption out the window. Nobody knows what the cutoffs will be, but it appears likely that the cutoff will be 3-4 points lower in high cutoff states, about the same in a lot of states, and perhaps even one or two points higher in a few states. Lots of discussion (hundreds of posts) at college confidential.

This might be a better link. http://nationalmerit.org/Merit_R&I_Leaflet.pdf

I had the same questions earlier but I found the answers at the NMSC webpage. http://nationalmerit.org/nmsp.php

One more - I also love the "Galaxy Song" by Monty Python. Just remember that you're standing on a planet that's evolving And revolving at nine hundred miles an hour, That's orbiting at nineteen miles a second, so it's reckoned, A sun that is the source of all our power. The sun and you and me and all the stars that we can see Are moving at a million miles a day In an outer spiral arm, at forty thousand miles an hour, Of the galaxy we call the 'Milky Way'. Our galaxy itself contains a hundred billion stars. It's a hundred thousand light years side to side. It bulges in the middle, sixteen thousand light years thick, But out by us, it's just three thousand light years wide. We're thirty thousand light years from galactic central point. We go 'round every two hundred million years, And our galaxy is only one of millions of billions In this amazing and expanding universe. The universe itself keeps on expanding and expanding In all of the directions it can whizz As fast as it can go, at the speed of light, you know, Twelve million miles a minute, and that's the fastest speed there is. So remember, when you're feeling very small and insecure, How amazingly unlikely is your birth, And pray that there's intelligent life somewhere up in space, 'Cause there's bugger all down here on Earth

"Why does the sun shine?" by They Might be Giants. The sun is mass of incandescent gas, a gigantic nuclear furnace Where hydrogen is built into helium at a temperature of millions of degrees Yo ho it's hot, the sun is not a place where we could live But here on earth there'd be no life without the light it gives We need its light, we need its heat, we need its energy Without the sun, without a doubt, there'd be no you and me The sun is mass of incandescent gas, a gigantic nuclear furnace Where hydrogen is built into helium at a temperature of millions of degrees The sun is hot It is so hot that everything on it is a gas Iron, copper, aluminum and many others The sun is large If the sun were hollow, a million earths could fit inside And yet the sun is still only a middle-sized star The sun is far away About 93,000,000 miles away, and that's why it looks so small And even when it's out of sight, the sun shines night and day The sun gives heat, the sun gives light, the sunlight that we see The sunlight comes from our own sun's atomic energy Scientists have found that the sun is a huge atom-smashing machine The heat and light of the sun come from the nuclear reactions Of hydrogen,carbon, nitrogen and helium The sun is mass of incandescent gas, a gigantic nuclear furnace Where hydrogen is built into helium at a temperature of millions of degrees

teaching young earth creationism as scientific fact, that evolution is "just a theory," etc., etc.

I saw the thread title and got very excited thinking that there was another Elliott Smith fan here, but, alas, that wasn't the case. If you want to listen to a truly great song with the same name, well, ladies and gentlemen, I give you the immortal Elliott Smith:

Couldn't figure out how to delete this so I'm editing it. See my post below.

The 2nd law of thermodynamics argument for creation has been so thoroughly refuted that even answersingenesis folks urge people not to use it as it has become a source of embarrassment. If "you don''t see" how complex organism could have evolved from simple organisms, it is because you are willfully ignoring the evidence.

Not trying to be difficult but I highly recommend "Letter to a Christian Nation" by Sam Harris. I absolutely think that you will find it both helpful and inspiring. Good luck and best wishes.