The Math of the Refugee Crisis

[Amira]

I'm glad that the refugee crisis that has been going on in the Middle East is finally getting more media attention and that more people are trying to do something about it in the last few weeks, but it bothers me that it's taken years for us to pay much attention to it. I mentioned in another thread that countries surrounding Syria have taken in a lot of refugees and today I finally had time to sit down to do a little math to compare the numbers.

 

Turkey's population is around 75 million and it has taken in 2 million refugees over the last several years. If the US took in a similar number of refugees in relation to its population, the number would be 8.5 million. The US has just announced it will take in 10,000 Syrian refugees. The EU would need to take in 13.5 million. The estimates I've heard have half a million refugees working their way toward Europe. Australia would need to take in about 700,000. It has agreed to take in 12,000.

 

Jordan and Lebanon both have low populations but both have taken in a huge number of people- and Jordan already had a lot of Iraqi refugees. I've seen numbers ranging from .8 million to 2.5 million refugees in Jordan, but even with the lower number, the US would need to take in 40 million refugees and Europe 63.5 million refugees to match what Jordan has done. With the higher number, it would be over 100,000,000 and 150,000,000, respectively. Australia would take between 3 million and 8 million. (Lebanon's proportions would be similar.)

 

Chad is another country with many refugees, a low population, and not much that's going well economically. The US should take in 10,000,000 people to match Chad's commitment.

 

It is true that the UNHCR and a lot of other organizations are in countries like Turkey, Jordan, and Chad to assist with the crisis, but that doesn't take away from the fact that these countries have done a huge amount with very little media attention. I think that the US and Europe can do far more right now.

[mommymilkies]

Oh wow. :(

[Pam in CT]

President Obama did indicate yesterday that he would direct the State Dept to allow (after UNHCR and security vetting) 10,000 Syrian refugees in.  

 

As you say, that is still very little, compared to the responses of Germany which has (nearly) agreed to take 800,000 (in absolute terms) and countries like Jordan and Lebanon (both of which are about the size of NJ but have taken on a huge number proportionate to their population).  But the backlash against the US taking any at all, with the possibility of attendant security risks, has already started.

 

 

This BBC timeline has a good overview of how the conflict evolved (though it's 6 months old); and

This UNHCR map has current (9/5/15) numbers of where the registered refugees are.

 

(FWIW, the gender breakdown among UNHCR registered refugees -- which is the population from which Obama has agreed to resettle -- is quite even.)

 

 

 

Rabbi Jonathan Sacks, the former Chief Rabbi in the UK (of whom I am rather a groupie), last week proposed a Kindertransport for displaced Syrian children until the crisis is over.  He was on NPR yesterday discussing it again.  It's an interesting idea.

[Spy Car]

To pay Devil's Advocate for a moment.

 

If the US has a population of 11.7 million undocumented migrants and Turkey were to take "her share" (by this reasoning), that would be 2.27 million people.

 

We have a different relationship to Mexico than to Syria. Same with Turkey and Syria (and Mexico).

 

Turkey (The Ottoman Empire) ruled Syria for 400 years. They have a special role and sphere of influence in Syria that differentiates their duties and interests from American duties and interests, as we have a special relationship with Mexico.

 

Jordan was really an artificial creation carved out from al-Shams (greater Syria) by western colonial powers after WWI. With full respect to the sovereignty and nationhood of Jordan, the cultural links, linguistic links, familial links, etc make for a special connection as well.

 

Same with Lebanon. A region of al-Shams carved out to be a Christian dominated nation from greater Syria.

 

It isn't unusual that proximity and shared history play a huge role when there are these sorts of crises. 

 

Bill

 

 

[Amira]

I agree that those historical, cultural, religious, and political ties matter and that you can't just assign people to countries according to the population of the country. There are many more factors than that and that's partly why the crisis has largely been limited to those neighboring countries for years. But at this point, Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan cannot handle this on their own and I think a better worldwide response is needed. This has the potential to destabilize the region even further and that could impact the world far more than the current refugee crisis.

 

I wish I could find good statistics for the number of undocumented migrants living in Turkey now. It's not an insignificant group and it's completely separate from the refugee numbers.

[Spy Car]

I agree that those historical, cultural, religious, and political ties matter and that you can't just assign people to countries according to the population of the country. There are many more factors than that and that's partly why the crisis has largely been limited to those neighboring countries for years. But at this point, Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan cannot handle this on their own and I think a better worldwide response is needed. This has the potential to destabilize the region even further and that could impact the world far more than the current refugee crisis.

 

I wish I could find good statistics for the number of undocumented migrants living in Turkey now. It's not an insignificant group and it's completely separate from the refugee numbers.

 

And Germany could point to the huge number of migrants they have from Turkey.

 

I'm not trying to sound argumentative. There is a humanitarian crisis happening that is profound. There are complexities in this crisis. Governments and armed groups in the region have a role in creating the crisis, and Turkey especially has been double-dealing.

 

Bill

[Pam in CT]

And Germany could point to the huge number of migrants they have from Turkey.

 

I'm not trying to sound argumentative. There is a humanitarian crisis happening that is profound. There are complexities in this crisis. Governments and armed groups in the region have a role in creating the crisis, and Turkey especially has been double-dealing.

 

Bill

Agreed.  A case could be made that the US government played a role as well.

[Amira]

I don't think there are any shining examples of goodness here. I personally know Iraqi refuguees who were treated so badly in Jordan in the 90s that they actually felt it was better to return to Iraq than stay in Jordan. The whole situation is awful. But I cannot say that I think the crisis should be dealt with locally, not only because of the potential for further regional crisis, but also because these are human beings suffering.

 

And I don't feel like we're arguing. I feel pretty passionate about this though!

[Spy Car]

Agreed.  A case could be made that the US government played a role as well.

 

Oh, for sure.

 

Bill

[JumpyTheFrog]

Turkey especially has been double-dealing.

 

Can you explain what you mean? I only found out about the refugee situation a few days ago, so I am way behind on understanding what is going on.

[Spy Car]

I don't think there are any shining examples of goodness here. I personally know Iraqi refuguees who were treated so badly in Jordan in the 90s that they actually felt it was better to return to Iraq than stay in Jordan. The whole situation is awful. But I cannot say that I think the crisis should be dealt with locally, not only because of the potential for further regional crisis, but also because these are human beings suffering.

 

And I don't feel like we're arguing. I feel pretty passionate about this though!

 

I appreciate your passion. 

 

I think any appraisal of the situation has to include what the refugee crisis is doing to nations in Europe as well. In many (most) an influx of migrants is seen as endangering social contracts (including welfare state benefits) that are already under stain due to the broader global economic problems and complex feeling about previous waves of (particularly) Muslim migrants.

 

As a result we are seeing a rise for extreme right-wing (if not openly fascist) parties across Europe, from Greece, to the Balkans, to France, to Scandinavia and beyond. This is distressing. 

 

I don't know that the west can yield to xenophobes and bar refugees or sit by and do nothing, but the potential for this refugee crisis to cause massive social and political problems in Europe from this point forward is not something to underestimate.

 

Bill

[Pam in CT]

I don't think there are any shining examples of goodness here. I personally know Iraqi refuguees who were treated so badly in Jordan in the 90s that they actually felt it was better to return to Iraq than stay in Jordan. The whole situation is awful. But I cannot say that I think the crisis should be dealt with locally, not only because of the potential for further regional crisis, but also because these are human beings suffering.

 

And I don't feel like we're arguing. I feel pretty passionate about this though!

 

FWIW I don't think we're arguing either, just caring.   No perfect solutions, just messy imperfect muddling through.

[JumpyTheFrog]

I don't know that the west can yield to xenophobes and bar refugees or sit by and do nothing, but the potential for this refugee crisis to cause massive social and political problems in Europe from this point forward is not something to underestimate.

 

A few days ago I spent maybe 20-30 minutes reading about the crisis on the BBC's website. Although I don't follow politics or the news really, I was struck by the thought that it seemed possible all the fighting about this could lead to the undoing of the EU. It sounds like more people are calling for requiring passports to travel between countries again. I have no way of knowing if only a few people feel that way or if it's starting to be a sizable minority of people, but people sounded scared.

[ChocolateReignRemix]

Agreed. A case could be made that the US government played a role as well.

A case that would be a guaranteed conviction.

[Spy Car]

Can you explain what you mean? I only found out about the refugee situation a few days ago, so I am way behind on understanding what is going on.

The Turks, for example, have aided Daesh (ISIS) by being complicit in the oil smuggling that is the terror group's main income source, while "officially" being opposed to Daesh.

 

The Turks have also undermined the Kurds in Iraqi Kurdistan, the one armed group that has been effective in turning back Daesh gains and protecting Yazidis from genocide, because Turkey has issues with their own Kurds and their PKK political party.

 

So they are working at cross purposes to their NATO allies.

 

Bill

[Amira]

I appreciate your passion.

 

I think any appraisal of the situation has to include what the refugee crisis is doing to nations in Europe as well. In many (most) an influx of migrants is seen as endangering social contracts (including welfare state benefits) that are already under stain due to the broader global economic problems and complex feeling about previous waves of (particularly) Muslim migrants.

 

As a result we are seeing a rise for extreme right-wing (if not openly fascist) parties across Europe, from Greece, to the Balkans, to France, to Scandinavia and beyond. This is distressing.

 

I don't know that the west can yield to xenophobes and bar refugees or sit by and do nothing, but the potential for this refugee crisis to cause massive social and political problems in Europe from this point forward is not something to underestimate.

 

Bill

Definitely. I am greatly concerned about this. It makes me sick to see what is happening in Europe and there is great potential for serious backlash there.

 

But where else can these people go? Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey can't realistically do much more, the Gulf states are extremely unlikely to change their policies that have been in place for decades, the Muslim countries of North Africa and Central and South Asia aren't realistic options, and southeast Asia is impractical for quite a few reasons. Russia isn't going to take in everyone, even if people wanted to go there, sub-Saharan Africa isn't possible, nor is South America, at least for large numbers of people. I truly think Europe, despite the risks, is the only viable option. And the US. Personally, I think the US could handle half a million refugees with very few USians even noticing they had arrived, if only we would choose to do so.

[ChocolateReignRemix]

Definitely. I am greatly concerned about this. It makes me sick to see what is happening in Europe and there is great potential for serious backlash there.

 

But where else can these people go? Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey can't realistically do much more, the Gulf states are extremely unlikely to change their policies that have been in place for decades, the Muslim countries of North Africa and Central and South Asia aren't realistic options, and southeast Asia is impractical for quite a few reasons. Russia isn't going to take in everyone, even if people wanted to go there, sub-Saharan Africa isn't possible, nor is South America, at least for large numbers of people. I truly think Europe, despite the risks, is the only viable option. And the US. Personally, I think the US could handle half a million refugees with very few USians even noticing they had arrived, if only we would choose to do so.

Considering our lack of social services in many areas, I am not sure we could.

[Spy Car]

Definitely. I am greatly concerned about this. It makes me sick to see what is happening in Europe and there is great potential for serious backlash there.

 

But where else can these people go? Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey can't realistically do much more, the Gulf states are extremely unlikely to change their policies that have been in place for decades, the Muslim countries of North Africa and Central and South Asia aren't realistic options, and southeast Asia is impractical for quite a few reasons. Russia isn't going to take in everyone, even if people wanted to go there, sub-Saharan Africa isn't possible, nor is South America, at least for large numbers of people. I truly think Europe, despite the risks, is the only viable option. And the US. Personally, I think the US could handle half a million refugees with very few USians even noticing they had arrived, if only we would choose to do so.

 

In the coldest calculations of realpolitik taking the pressure off Turkey would play directly into the hands of Turkish President ErdoÄŸan, whose plan to transform the Turkish political system and turn his office into virtual dictatorship (via an electoral process) have been frustrated thus far. But is a plan in active play, with elections pending.

 

A de facto ErdoÄŸan dictatorship in Turkey would be a disaster. 

 

Sorry to be such a "realist." but that's my training.

 

Bill

[Arcadia]

But where else can these people go? Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey can't realistically do much more, the Gulf states are extremely unlikely to change their policies that have been in place for decades, the Muslim countries of North Africa and Central and South Asia aren't realistic options, and southeast Asia is impractical for quite a few reasons.

 

Southeast Asia people of my generation probably still remembers the logistic mess from the Vietnam War (1954-1975) boat people crisis.  The refugee camps were overcrowded and refuges kept arriving. Then the Afghanistan war (1979-89, 2001-2014) and the Iraq war (2003-2011) didn't ease the déjà vu feeling.  People become more willing to donate cash for humanitarian aid then to accept refugees again.

[Amira]

In the coldest calculations of realpolitik taking the pressure off Turkey would play directly into the hands of Turkish President ErdoÄŸan, whose plan to transform the Turkish political system turn his office into virtual dictatorship (via an electoral process) have been frustrated thus far. 

 

A de facto ErdoÄŸan dictatorship in Turkey would be a disaster. 

 

Sorry to be such a "realist." but that's my training.

 

Bill

 

I completely see your points about the political situation in Turkey.  In particular, I don't like that Erdogan has used attacking Daesh as an excuse to stir things up again with the Kurds and the whole situation is fraught.

 

But I never was a realist at heart in international relations.  :)

[Tanaqui]

Rabbi Jonathan Sacks, the former Chief Rabbi in the UK (of whom I am rather a groupie), last week proposed a Kindertransport for displaced Syrian children until the crisis is over.  He was on NPR yesterday discussing it again.  It's an interesting idea.

 

Interesting is the word for it, and no offense to the Rabbi, who is no doubt doing his best when speaking to the obstreperous among us.

 

I grew up with a very romantic impression of WWII due to all the books I read about children being separated from their families either during the Blitz or the Holocaust. I'm sure I'm not the only one who thought that leaving your parents was exotic, even a little exciting... so long as there's a happy ending. And sure, moving children is better than nothing.

 

But in reality, we should remember that most of the children in the Kindertransport (and the related American program, the name of which escapes me) never saw their parents again. Or if they were reunited with their parents, they had grown up without them, possibly didn't speak the same language or even share the same religion anymore. Many of those children were mistreated. If we expand this concept to all children divided from their parents in that time period, you can also remember that many of them were shuttled around from place to place.

 

Foster care is not usually better than staying with your own parents, not if those parents aren't abusive. Saving children is better than nothing, but it is shameful that we have to suggest this because nobody can be bothered to save the adults. It'd be much better for those children, and society, to save their families.

[Pam in CT]

Interesting is the word for it, and no offense to the Rabbi, who is no doubt doing his best when speaking to the obstreperous among us.

 

I grew up with a very romantic impression of WWII due to all the books I read about children being separated from their families either during the Blitz or the Holocaust. I'm sure I'm not the only one who thought that leaving your parents was exotic, even a little exciting... so long as there's a happy ending. And sure, moving children is better than nothing.

 

But in reality, we should remember that most of the children in the Kindertransport (and the related American program, the name of which escapes me) never saw their parents again. Or if they were reunited with their parents, they had grown up without them, possibly didn't speak the same language or even share the same religion anymore. Many of those children were mistreated. If we expand this concept to all children divided from their parents in that time period, you can also remember that many of them were shuttled around from place to place.

 

Foster care is not usually better than staying with your own parents, not if those parents aren't abusive. Saving children is better than nothing, but it is shameful that we have to suggest this because nobody can be bothered to save the adults. It'd be much better for those children, and society, to save their families.

 

I agree.  And Rabbi Sacks well knows how very few of those children ever saw their families again.  (I know you know that!)

 

If you read his editorial and particularly listen to the interview, it is IMO pretty clear that he's not arguing it's a good solution.  Are there any?  

 

Within his own community, it is rather a brave thing to draw a connection between Syrian refugees and Jews in 1938 (not that he hasn't done/said brave things plenty often before).  He's floating an idea that -- and he studies his "obstreperous" religiously pluralist/politically polarized UK audience with care -- he thinks might be achievable and might help some people.    

 

 

We're not expected to complete the work, but neither are we free from starting it,  And all that.

[Pam in CT]

Amira, I don't know if you saw Jim Wallis' article of a few days ago on the crisis, echoing the welcome the stranger, for once you were strangers yourselves theme and amplifying Pope Francis' call:

 

In the midst of this long-brewing crisis, Pope Francis has changed the conversation, as he so often does. During his Sunday address this week, he asked every Catholic parish and monastery in Europe to accept one family “that has fled death from war and hunger.†If every parish were to follow the pope’s call, between 360,000 and 500,000 refugees could be accommodated. - See more at: https://sojo.net/articles/europe-and-us-we-must-welcome-stranger#sthash.uYuvnAK6.dpuf

 

(I like Wallis a lot too... :laugh: )