Yeah, pretty much. Except I'm pretty sure they have better ways to administer it than squeezing it out of the tube... 🤣

Heading out for now, but can you explain why the possibility of better outcomes would make a difference to your model? I hope it's not a totally dense question, but I don't see how they're connected.

Yeah, I don't know how that all balances out. I assumed that was part of his point tho. That if they thought they were sick enough to come in, that was enough to get them hospitalized. They now would be better able to determine who actually needs to be hospitalized.

Possibly, but I've actually heard the opposite. I heard a NYC doc saying that at the beginning they hospitalized many people who didn't need hospitalization. Basically they didn't know what to do, so if someone had tested positive and felt sick enough to be seen, they were automatically hospitalized. He said they are much better now at targeting the sickest patients.

Totally agree. I don't ever want to make light of covid, but I have had some pretty bad worst case scenarios in my head over the last 6 mos. I do find this encouraging.

These are far better numbers than I have seen elsewhere. Usually they are following up on hospitalized cases, so I knew the number of long timers was skewed high. I just haven't known how high. So 65% of symptomatic cases had fully recovered in 2-3 weeks, that's so much better than I have been thinking. It does happen to fit my personal sample, but I haven't wanted to give that too much weight.

What I have heard is that younger people usually die more quickly. The explanation was that more of them die from cytokine storms, instead of the slower progressing pneumonia that is seen in older patients.

1. I am sitting sitting in the kitchen overlooking our land thinking that I really should go gather eggs and tend to the garden. Lol. I had to spend many years in town saving up to get the rural place I wanted. Just like you, I grew up in the country and badly wanted that for my kids. I also came to the realization that town comes with many perks. Once we finally got our dream home, my dh took a new job and he isn't here to enjoy it with me like I had imagined. Bottom line, life always throws curveballs at me. I don't have a great solution for dealing with it. I just try my best to stay optimistic no matter what. 3. Ooh, raising teens in the country. Great question. It has definitely had its ups and downs, though it's been mostly positive. My dd is almost 17 and she spent 13-15 being extremely bored. She outgrew playing outside and I wasn't prepared to offer her other options. It was not great for her mental health although there many other factors at play too. I really questioned where we live and our decision to homeschool during that time. Now that we are on the other side, I will say that living in the country was a huge bonus. Gardening, caring for animals, even hauling and chopping wood (basically anything being physical and outdoors) ended up being hugely beneficial. She didn't always love doing these things but she couldn't deny that they made her feel better. She still turns to those things when she has rough patches. My next 2 are boys - almost 15 and 13. My 15 yo lives for the outdoors. He loves the outdoors and the woods. I can't imagine any other life for him. My 13 is not as enthusiastic but he already says he wants a place in the country when he grows up. Another plus, we all know the benefits of physical labor for teen boys. It is much easier to find that out here than it would be in town. So I'd say it is all positives so far for my teen boys.

Ok, I admit I had to reread a couple times to work that out. 😋 That does make sense. I have been following how you've been linking positivity with deaths. That is a good explanation for why that connection is there.

Thanks! And do tell... I'd love to hear your theory.

I'm sure you've said before, but where are you looking to find data on positivity?

My oldest did the geometry book after completing only ch. 1-13 in Intro. That wasn't your question, just throwing it out there that it wasn't a problem for us. We had planned to come back and finish, but AoPS became too much for us. We would have used an old suggestion from @regentrude to complete Intro and do Intermediate: ch. 1-4 (review), ch. 6-9 (polynomials), ch. 13 (exponentials and logarithms), ch. 14 (radicals) Having said that, I believe regentrude's kids (and many others) did the entire book for Algebra 2. I know that over the years on this board others have felt comfortable finishing the rest of Intro and calling it Algebra 2. There isn't one standard definition for Algebra 2, so any of these options could work depending on your progression.

My oldest used it a couple years ago. She used the recommended text and the guide as written, iirc. It was pretty hands off for me, I would look over her written answers and discuss them. I didn't worry too much about correcting anything. My dd enjoyed it and felt like she learned a lot.

Yeah, they have somehow figured out how to work together in Scandinavian countries and a few others. I also think my state has done pretty well on that front. That type of thinking definitely seems to be the exception, though.

Some of this is specific to America. Florida, in particular, seems to have something special (for lack of a better word) going on. But other countries do deal with similar issues. In Victoria 90% of people who tested positive did not isolate between the time they showed symptoms and went for testing. 50% did not isolate between testing and recieving results. https://www.adn.com/nation-world/2020/07/22/australians-ignore-self-isolation-guidelines-coronavirus-case-numbers-climb/ In South Korea members of the LGBTQ community were scared to be tested because of their government's contact tracing. https://www.google.com/amp/s/time.com/5836699/south-korea-coronavirus-lgbtq-itaewon/%3famp=true You can google virtually any country and 'ignores lockdown' to find stories of people ignoring rules the same as here. I'll throw out my first 2 hits. Spain https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-barcelona-beaches-packed-after-fed-up-locals-ignore-stay-at-home-advice-amid-covid-19-spike-12032433 France https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-europe-53138300

Yes!! It was so fun watching my oldest dd read the series because she thinks just like me so I got to watch her go through a whole range of thinking regarding Snape. It was great.

This is the biggest reason I remember hating Jane Eyre. I liked Mr. Rochester and I hated what happened at the end and how that was his redemption. I was crazy upset, way more than I should be over a fictional character, lol. Yep, I'm gonna have to read it again. I have a soft spot for misunderstood characters - Loki and Snape come to mind. I think that's how I felt about Mr. Rochester though I don't exactly remember.

At least someone sort of understands, lol. 🤣 I would pretty much consider it torture to read Jane Eyre more than once. Although this thread is making me consider a reread. It has probably been about 10 years since I read it.

Am I the only one who hates Jane Eyre but loves Wuthering Heights? One of my all time favorite books....

It does discuss that different side effects were observed at higher doses. It did not mention that the highest dose had been abandoned. I'm glad to hear that.

When it comes to coming at the information from a different direction, one possibility is looking at covid deaths per million: 1780 New Jersey 1676 New York 1236 Connecticut 1226 Massachusetts 669 United Kingdom 580 Italy 462 France 438 United States 401 Arizona 242 Florida 200 California 148 Texas I don't want to diminish the seriousness of the situation in some states. And I definitely don't want to stand in the way of any good old U.S. bashing... But really nowhere is close to another New York right now. Most states are being cautious in their opening and pulling back when needed. I just don't see the U.S. teetering on a cliff the way some do.

I thought exactly the same. We have 8 people in a not huge house. I have figured if one gets it, we'll have to let the chips fall where they may. This made me think it is definitely worth isolating and distancing to the extent we can if someone gets sick with covid.

They did have equal access to testing. Everbody who wanted testing was offered it. I recommend reading it if you have time at some point. It is interesting evidence on viral load and the effectiveness of social distancing, plus they discuss the severity of symptomatic cases and the prevalence of asymptomatic cases.

Thank you! I have been wondering why nobody is talking about this stuff. I thought the side effects seemed a lot more than mild; they may very well be worth it, but this needs to be acknowledged. Also the article at least briefly hit on another point that often gets overlooked. All these optimistic timelines and glowing press releases are for stock holders. It might be helpful for the media to keep that in mind before they blindly jump on the bandwagon with their reporting.

This NYT article talks about where these numbers come from. The article says that this is the study that the CDC used to get those estimates. I think 10 times (or more) is a good estimate for early on. I'm gonna second @square_25 At this point I've been assuming we are catching 20-25% of the cases.