Right, I'm thinking the same thing. I'd like to see more testing to help get a clear answer. Until then, we have spent the last 4 months with tens of thousands of childcare centers open with no large outbreaks. Yet middle school and older kids start congregating at parties and camps and we see outbreaks within weeks. Not because we are looking for it and not because teenagers get horribly sick from covid, it just spreads and becomes obvious. Also, I'm not convinced that some states aren't looking for covid in childcare centers. My state was at the beginning of the outbreak. They talked about it alot then, saying they were not seeing spread in those settings. I haven't heard anything since early May, so I don't want to put words in anybody's mouth. At one point, though, they were watching this.

Yes, it eventually will get to their parents and childcare staff. We aren't seeing that even though childcare has remained open this whole time. I could change my mind on this one crazy fast, but so far I'm not seeing these young ones spreading covid. Do you have a link to the story at the childcare center near you? And the camp outbreak in Missouri is in older kids, right?

My state has some restrictions for the first 6 mos - limits on passengers under 21 (other than siblings) and no driving after midnight. Obviously, never get behind the wheel if you drink or use drugs. I guess my biggest rule is to communicate with me about where you are and when you'll be home. My first driver is well behaved and trustworthy so I haven't felt the need to make any other rules. She has her own car and pays for her own gas, more rules would probably need to be in place if she was driving a family vehicle.

In a city in Minnesota, they are apparently having a massive outbreak in teens. That tells me that yes, teens spread covid just as easily as adults. But it also tells me that young kids are likely not spreading it as easily because this idea that it could be going unnoticed seems unlikely when we are finding it in older kids. I wonder where the line is. Under 10? Puberty? This would be helpful info.

I am not normally a fan of listening to podcasts, I'd much rather read. This was great. I only listened to the first half hour, and it seemed they were moving on to other topics at that point. It was well worth my time. Thank you for linking this!

I agree that it's imperfect. I would definitely move a few activities around on that chart. I think this is a case where it may not be super useful *for you* because you are paying attention so closely, but I think it is very helpful for the general public. I haven't seen anything like this yet, that is so accessible. Even if it needs some tweaking over time, I'm really glad to see something like this being put out there.

Thanks for this. It is a very understandable way to get the message across and I mostly agree with their rankings. My state has this weird dial system trying to show something similar. I get it, mostly, but it is not user friendly. I like this a lot.

For those of us who have been wishing more attempts to collect data and research different aspects of how covid is spreading, I found this article interesting. It shows a joint effort between the University of Minnesota and MN Dept of Health (plus the Mayo Clinic to some extent) to look how covid is spreading and what interventions are most helpful. https://www.minnpost.com/health/2020/06/what-the-minnesota-health-department-hopes-to-learn-from-covid-19-blood-tests/

I could totally see that!!

The entire August and Everything After album. If you want to pick just one - Raining in Baltimore.

Ya know, how is it that we find that covid is far less deadly than originally thought. And we determine the flu is far less deadly than we are normally told. The takeaway we get is this article... sigh.

They came up with an IFR of 1.45 in NYC - a number that is right where those of us who have been calculating these numbers have estimated. They then went on to estimate that the IFR of the flu is more like .01 (or even lower) a number I also believe to be true. Usually the fatality rate of the flu is cited as 0.1%, but that is more likely the CFR. The flu has a large amount of asymptomatic cases, just like covid. Yep, sounds right on to me.

I agree with a lot of what you are saying here. I definitely want to see more data. But I'm not sure these studies are completely meaningless just because they are small. Like the 9yo in France who didn't spread it to any of his 170 contacts. Is it definitive proof? No way. But it is another little piece of the puzzle that is pointing in the same direction. By the same argument, the 2 hairdressers who didn't spread covid are completely meaningless. I would disagree - I think those cases are meaningful even if they are not definitive proof on their own.

We added dd as an authorized user on our credit card when she got her license. However, she does pay for her own gas. She only uses the card if she is in a bind unless she is doing something for me like picking up a few groceries. We pay the car insurance. When she bought her car our original deal was that we would pay for gas. She rejected that idea. I think it is because she is a DE student at the local college and most of her friends are older. She seemed to want to join them in the "omg, all my money goes to filling up my car" conversations. She has a job and in hindsight it has been good for her to pay for her own gas. I think that is something we will have the other kids do as well.

@Pen What Laura linked is what I'm referring to. This study seemed well designed (to me...) It looks like they took 11000 people and randomly assigned them to 5 different groups. I am not sure if one group is a control, and they are looking at 4 treatments or if there are 5 treatments. I sift through so much each day that it starts to run together, but this study has stuck out as being one of the best I've seen yet. Yep, these are the ones I've seen so far. Thank you!

Plasma is being looked at by the University of Oxford. They are looking at 4 or 5 different treatments. The results for HCQ and dexamethasone have come out, plasma will hopefully be coming soon.

I wondered about more young people getting infected. I am under the impression that older people are still getting infected at the same rate, but I could be wrong. I really wish I had more information on hospitalizations by age. I keep hearing mixed results about HCQ. I wish it hadn't become so politicized... Interesting to hear on the plasma. I know studies are being done and I'm really looking forward to the results.

I go by the 33 item per person rule. (This was not my idea but I can't remember where I got it from.) I don't count socks, undies, or footwear. I do count jackets. I figure what they need for "good clothes" and let the rest be filled with home/farm clothes. My kids decide what to keep when their closets are getting overrun - sometimes the worst looking is also the favorite, oh well. The rest of the ripped/stained clothes get thrown out. I never feel good about tossing stuff, but I don't have any good options at a certain point.

This would probably not be caught in my state. However, if 8 kids got sick at daycare and spread it to their families, even if only 4 of those families were symptomatic I absolutely think it would be caught in my state. So far it hasn't happened. I'm not yet sure exactly what that means, I wish we had more info. It does seem to me that young kids are not causing any large outbreaks. I will absolutely change my tune if I start to see this happening.

Which is why hospitalization numbers have always been a better indicator than case numbers. I think those are generally very accurate.

I'm not positive it's the right calculation. I am seeing a trend where that 13-25% holds true all through April, then steadily improves until we get to this 2.5-7% average that has held steady for the last 2 weeks. The time any given individual spent in ICU should be irrelevant when looking over a span of 12+ weeks, right?

Oh yeah, good point. Blood thinners have become standard treatment over that time.

Does anybody have thoughts on whether new treatment protocols could be improving outcomes? I have been looking at icu numbers and deaths for my state. If you assume the deaths from today were in the ICU yesterday than there has been a huge improvement. At the end of April it appears you had a 13-25% chance of dying if you were in ICU, but that has steadily dropped over the last 2 months. It is now a 2.5-7% chance of dying. Has anybody else noticed this type of improvement? Any thoughts on what might be making the difference?

I suppose that makes sense 🙁

I'm so frustrated that we don't seem to be using these opportunities to research!! It should be very simple to track whether those kids spread it to their families. It should be feasible to test entire daycares if they have cases. At least I think we now have enough testing for that? To me the daycare situation does not look like horrible news. Google tells me that Texas has 12,176 childcare centers serving over 1 million kids. 194 kids infected is a very small number and it looks like the adults are passing it to the kids, not vice versa. This makes me assume that kids are not major spreaders. However, I completely agree that I don't want to assume!! We should be able to track this better by now and start to get some solid answers.