on warm weather and coronavirus. Article is about a study from University of Toronto discussing why they believe warmer summer weather will not slow down the spread. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/health/virus-summer-pandemic.html

T think if you had the Intermediate book, you could just do the chapters that show up in the syllabus over the summer. From what I understand, it's because those additional chapters were intended to provide a fuller coverage of Algebra II. This is an option I am considering. The Intermediate book is only partially used at WTMA in their Algebra II course and then they move onto pre-calculus after Geometry. So I guess it depends on whether you want to have her cover what the other students would have covered. This is the one clip for Heather Quintero here:

I haven't taken it, but I am just coming in to let you know that WTMA AOPS assumes you have AOPS Algebra II completed. It covers the second half of Intro to Algebra and parts of the Intermediate Algebra book. I am attaching the pdf of the syllabus for you to see what the instructor expects you to have covered. When I asked about these classes via PM, I was told that Quintero does not teach it using the discovery approach and will explicitly teach and demonstrate the concepts. They also do some challenge problems. I was also told that is the pace is slowed down to be that of a rigorous high school math course with a manageable workload without the intensity and pace of the online AOPS classes. https://docs.google.com/document/d/12WwhrH7Z8BPh24kZelazK2tpaE5Vand0Sf8Kj3zHYas/edit

I spent time from my life that I will not get back yesterday debunking this in FB. If it is the latest conspiracy theory that went viral about there being a massive overstating of deaths, it is about the Provisional Death Counts for COVID. I'm just going to copy and paste what I wrote on FB. I am smh over the fact that apparently people's ability to comprehend and read. Here is the link to the chart: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm There is a fundamental misunderstanding about how the provisonal death tables are compiled. There is no automated way to tabulate deaths for CDC for 20% of deaths. They have to be manually processed. Usually takes 1 to 8 weeks to update under NORMAL processing times. There are certain death codes that are manually processed. Covid is one of them. The flu is another. Info has to go from doctor>hospital>coroner>death certificate. Then that information goes to state reporting agency (57 of those) and then that goes to the CDC. The wheels of government grind slowly. 80% of deaths are coded automatically. 20% are coded manually. The timing I described above is based their current operations. I would say the wheels are grinding ever slower right now. So, long story short, this provisional table will ALWAYS run up to 2 months behind in accuracy because when they process they will add to dates for when deaths actually occur. This system was never designed for real time reporting. The John Hopkins data is actually more accurate and closer to real time or the NYT compilation because they are getting information directly from county level reporting because of the public interest in real time data. The notes are as written directly under the table in question: NOTE: Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. The United States population, based on 2018 postcensal estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, is 327,167,434. *Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death. 1Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, coded to ICD–10 code U07.1 2Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019. Previous analyses of 2015–2016 provisional data completeness have found that completeness is lower in the first few weeks following the date of death (<25%), and then increases over time such that data are generally at least 75% complete within 8 weeks of when the death occurred (8). 3Pneumonia death counts exclude pneumonia deaths involving influenza. 4Influenza death counts include deaths with pneumonia or COVID-19 also listed as a cause of death. 5Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, pneumonia, or influenza, coded to ICD–10 codes U07.1 or J09–J18.9.

DH went to Costco yesterday. We have limit of 3 packages of meat now as well.

Critique about those two doctors: https://calmatters.org/health/2020/04/debunking-bakersfield-doctors-covid-spread-conclusions/?fbclid=IwAR0AKTAdyUUaFIW97rjPGv5eNsb0ebXLZUIqs5clHFix8eSK7blXrfDsA9E

This was a really good look at Sweden. I especially liked the more detailed information regarding population density compared to other Nordic countries. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/europe/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-strategy-intl/index.html

Youtube pulled that video as fake news. Though it has really gone viral. Their math is driving me nutty and irritated as well. They also tried to extrapolate the postiive test rate from testing being done to be the infected population, then they took the total number of deaths and divided it by their extrapolated infected population to tell people that was the risk of dying from Covid 19. Math and understanding math is so important!

I thought this captured very well the tension going on right now and how leaders as well as the regular person is trying to process. https://news.yahoo.com/cold-calculations-americas-leaders-reopening-122102505.html

@JadeOrchidSong I think you are in the same area I am. I saw this in the UT this morning, A return to full-time, on-campus instruction in the fall may not happen. U-T reporter Kristen Taketa reports a county expert predicts that students might be on campus only a day or two a week, and school districts could move from classroom-based learning to “blended” or distance learning.

The Gov of Hawaii did order 14 day quarantine for anyone flying into Hawaii on 3/21.

Was the merits of this study discussed already on this board? The following is the text of a study by Prof Isaac Ben-Israel, first published on April 16, 2020. (Ben-Israel discussed his research on Israeli TV on April 13, saying that simple statistics show the spread of the coronavirus declines to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.) https://www.timesofisrael.com/the-end-of-exponential-growth-the-decline-in-the-spread-of-coronavirus/

Do you have any arnica? That helps with the bruising.

Belgium has the highest death rate per capita in the world. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

This interactive map with graphs from NYT is pretty useful. You can look at countries. For US, you can look at state and drill down to county. The state level has that critical new cases reported bar graph with a line graph overlay of 7 day average which is really helpful if you are looking at the trend line which is one of the gating criteria for the US reopening plan. This is not available for county level data though. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html

I thought this was an interesting article that reports on what I commented on anecdoctally about how the Asian communities in the US responded to this way ahead of the rest of the country. https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/How-San-Francisco-s-Chinatown-Got-Ahead-of-the-15207797.php?fbclid=IwAR0VvlolNDrnrCJQFwle9U2FeD_XKkY53rLAzXsLPSS6iJ2ar7-dpFFz9jg

White House announces 3 phase plan. Every state will have power over when their state begins to move through the process. https://apnews.com/420a38ec14101eab70e07be367ee6422

In practice, that happened here already in CA. Local restrictions trumped state when it was stricter. Just like how state restrictions trumped federal when it was stricter. This also happened in other states as well. Florida comes to mind when local jurisdictions took action before the state did.

CA, OR and WA have formed a Western States pact on their strategy to re-open. The plan is to be revealed Tuesday 4/14 at 12 PM. https://www.kcra.com/article/gov-newsom-coronavirus-update-april-13/32130091

This is just anecdoctally speaking from CA (San Diego area). Even before the SIP order was announced, there were plenty of social distancing actions being taken prior to this. We were seeing large events, field trips, competitions, etc. being cancelled well before the first SIP orders went into effect - like Bay Area 3/15. The state wide order to avoid large gatherings >200 was on 3/12. I know within the Asian communities, there was plenty of pull back in unnecessary outside activities well before this because we were paying attention to what was happening in Asia. Enough that it was noticeable by other people, and they started to take notice as well. My thinking is that there were social behavioral changes happening locally already - enough that it may have had a significant difference in CA versus NY outcomes. @Arcadia were you seeing similar in the Bay Area? Other CA folks, do you recall what you were seeing? My friends and relatives in the Bay Area were pulling back already prior to the SIP order. My family was essentially SIP since 3/5.

NY Post reports that EMTs are no longer taking cardiac arrest patients to hospitals if they are unable to be revived on the scene. https://nypost.com/2020/04/02/coronavirus-nyc-emts-stop-taking-cardiac-arrest-patients-to-hospitals/

China will be revising their reported COVID-19 numbers to include asymptomatic carriers. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3077753/china-include-symptom-free-coronavirus-carriers-national-figures

This stood out to me in this oped piece about Germany's CFR and why it is way too early to draw any conclusions regarding the numbers. Patients have only recently entered hospitals. On average, a severely ill Covid-19 patient dies 30 days after being infected. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/opinion/germany-coronavirus.html

Regarding cell phones in China. If you don't have a cellphone, you are pretty much unable to engage in normal activities. You have to have it to do every day things because it's a virtually cashless society everything is mobile payment. And it's even more critical now as you have to show your health status on your phone as to whether or not you are permitted to freely move about. I was over there in 2018 before they started allowing WeChat and Alipay to be linked to a foreign bank account in late 2019. It was just a lot harder because they don't want cash. In many places, it's impossible to get a taxi without a phone because no one will stop for you.

I saw this article today questioning China's reported numbers because of the number cancelled cell phones. https://www.ibtimes.sg/china-hiding-covid-19-death-toll-21-million-cell-phones-disappeared-why-41580