What should we be watching for next?

[Not_a_Number]

6 minutes ago, Farrar said:

In what sense? We see widespread voter suppression in rural areas as well, you know. If your suggestion is that there just aren't enough voting places because people are unexpectedly in cities more now, that's just blatantly false. I'm not sure what you're getting at here, honestly.

No, because people moving to urban areas has meant the power of rural areas has weakened, and they are trying to hold on to this power. And there’s no way to do so democratically, since the numbers are no longer there.

Edited March 22, 2021 by Not_a_Number

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

I think that if you can leave the USA, you should. Our problems are huge and probably unfixable at this point because there is no political will to address income inequality paired with the effects of climate change. 

And go where? This is a global problem. We’ve been working on getting Canadian papers, but I dunno.

[Not_a_Number]

14 minutes ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

Other countries are more stable than the USA because they have better safety nets and more stable democracies. 

Technically, we don’t know that their democracies are more stable. They are mostly newer!

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, Ordinary Shoes said:

I see what you are saying here but there are indicators that point to a more stable democracy than we have here in the USA. Turnout rates for example. Less income inequality. 

That is complicated because the countries that have better safety nets and therefore less income inequality were able to build their social welfare systems because they never pulled their own weight in protecting themselves during the Cold War. While the USA was investing huge amounts in our military, European democracies developed their social welfare systems. 

I think if you could go migrate to any country in the world, Germany would probably be the safest bet. 

Oooh, well, I know some people who thought Germany was a lovely country early in the last century! Really, I think it was a haven for intellectuals... you can read some accounts of what a thriving place it was.

Anyway, I can’t imagine moving to Germany. I have relatives there, actually, let in for maybe obvious reasons, and I really can’t imagine making that decision myself.

I’m all for safety nets, but I have no reason to believe that makes for stability. Frankly, I’d say that history suggests that a military is a good idea for stability...

[livetoread]

I agree that the migration issues caused by climate change will be the most destabilizing force we will likely face in the future. As a species, we could cope with this if we were forward thinking and generous, but I don't think we are - at least not enough to deal with it in a way that averts catastrophe and suffering for far too many. The wars that are likely to come from it will affect the rich countries, too. It not just that I might have to pay more in property tax or my electric might cost more.

[Alicia64]

6 hours ago, ktgrok said:

Yup. 

I'm in Florida, and they changed the start of Hurricane season to reflect this. Starts 2 weeks earlier this year. Sea level changes are an issue in some areas of the country/world. 

This may be a time to research what is happening locally - if you are in Kansas hurricanes are less of an issue, lol. But in some places, water is going to be a huge issue. Or cost of energy, etc. 

Scary. We're newish to Atlanta, and still getting used to hurricane season.

[Not_a_Number]

7 minutes ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

Safety nets reduce income inequality and less income inequality indicates that a society is more stable. Germany is an excellent example of this actually. 

Germany has a good safety net AND a strong military. 

Also, because of their history, they are probably more immune to fascism than the USA and other democracies. 

I dunno that a history of fascism makes them more immune. And I don’t know that reduced income inequality makes for a more stable society. Who says?

[Not_a_Number]

18 minutes ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

Note I didn't completely immune, just more immune than we do. They do anti-fascist education in the schools. Holocaust denialism is outlawed. They have at least attempted to grapple with their history. That should provide some of immunity against fascism. 

I googled income inequality and stable democracy and found numerous hits. This is not controversial. The UN wrote a report about this last year. 

Rising inequality is destabilizing democracies around the world, warns UN report

ETA - think about the history. Is there an example of a healthy democracy that also has extreme stratification between rich and poor? On the other hand, think of the Russian revolution or the rise of Nazism in Germany. Economics played a huge part in both. 

Do happy people violently overthrow their king and kill him? Probably not. 

The original democracy in Greece couldn’t have women vote and had lots of slaves 😂. We have no clue what makes democracy stable. It’s not a known science.

As for the Russian Revolution and Nazism, they weren’t overthrowing established democracies by any stretch of the imagination.

[Not_a_Number]

3 minutes ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

Of course it's not a known science. Nothing related to how human beings behave is a known science. People are too unpredictable. 

But the USA has been a democracy for over 200 years. That should provide some evidence. 

Are you arguing that there is no connection between income inequality and political stability? 

I literally have no idea about income inequality and political stability. Most of history has involved much deeper inequalities than today’s society.

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

True but there weren't modern democracies in the past either. Arguably the governments of the past were better suited to income inequality than a modern democracy. 

It’s possible? It’s not that I don’t understand why people think income inequality may lead to instability. It’s just that I’m skeptical that people really know anything about this.

[Ditto]

21 hours ago, Dreamergal said:

I am an optimistic, if the other shoe is going to drop tomorrow I do not want to know. I cannot live on an edge, be hyper vigilant all the time. I believe the world is made up generally of good people so good will ultimately prevail. Throughout history people have faced worse and come out ahead always. We are survivors as a species. 

I prepare as much as I can and let go. 

if the world ends tomorrow, I prefer not to know. I want to smile, laugh, take a walk, enjoy the every day simple joys of life until my last breath.

Perhaps it is a completely foolish way to live, but I know no other way.

I agree with you completely.  

[Melissa Louise]

In some ways, other countries ARE more stable....in the short term. Where I am, Covid has actually increased trust in democratic institutions (mostly b/c they responded well) and the economy has refloated ok. We don't have the illness burden wreaked elsewhere. Corruption remains consistently low-level, policing and medical care is stable and still sustainable. Inequality is growing, but due to wage suppression across the board, radical differences between working and middle class currently papered over. House values are high. 

BUT...

We've been wracked by unprecedented weather events (coastal fire, extreme flooding) in the last 12 months. 

Destruction of the environment continues apace. 

Housing crisis building. 

Parts of the medical system not fit for purpose. 

Still no truth and reconciliation with indigenous peoples. Systemic effects of colonisation seemingly resistant to many interventions. 

China flexing its power over our economy and politics. Stranded in the south with unreliable, untested in the 21st C allies (US, UK). 

Just some of the cracks in the foundations. In a society and economy currently functioning quite well in comparison. 

 

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

Why? There's plenty of examples in the last century. 

Not of established democracies collapsing, no. There haven't been enough established democracies collapsing to tell. 

 

1 minute ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

"Really know" - what does that mean? Human beings are unpredictable. If you look at history, you have to wonder why this event set off the powder keg and another did not. There is never one cause of anything people do. But we look at historical trends and make reasonable guesses. There are correlations. Revolutions tend to happen under certain conditions. 

Would a stable economy been vulnerable to a takeover by the Nazis in 1932? I think it's reasonable to assume not. Which Germans were the most sympathetic to the Nazis before 1932? Small business owners, the petite bourgeoisie, were most likely to support the Nazis before 1932 and the economic conditions in Germany in the 1920s were relevant to that. Most historians today believe that the economic penalties imposed upon Germany after WWI were a mistake because they laid the foundation for the rise of the Nazis. 

I don't disagree with the historians' take on that one, but that set up is nothing like the world right now. There had recently been a deadly war. The German societal structure was precarious to begin with -- democracy wasn't particularly established. 

Having watched the former USSR and a whole host of other countries, one thing that's obvious to me is that new democracies are inherently unstable. People who aren't used to democracy and its discontents are apt to want strong leaders... I think it's a typical human impulse. I have family members that are unabashedly pro-Putin (they live in Germany, by the way.) 

I think the US has a serious advantage because it has a population who expects democracy to thrive. There's no cultural memory of anything different. That's not true in lots of places. 

[Not_a_Number]

4 minutes ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

I see your point. 

True that there aren't examples of established democracies but how many established democracies are there anyway? What is the criteria for "established" anyway? 

I don't have a criterion in my mind, but the US definitely meets whatever it would be! 

 

Quote

I agree that it's a typical human impulse to want a strong leader in a new democracy because they are not used to democracy. But I think it's also a typical human impulse to want a strong leader when times are bad. What was the appeal of Trump? I want to make it clear that I don't believe he was a fascist but I think he had fascist tendencies and and there are similarities between MAGA and fascist movements. The "othering," blaming minority groups for economic distress, government lies. The playbook is similar. 

If you look at history, you'll see a line being crossed making the next line easier to cross. The riot at the Capitol is one of those before and after events, IMHO. Meaning that American before January 6th is not the same as America after January 6th. Once the Capitol is stormed, it's more likely to be stormed again. A big line was crossed. 

Oh, I agree that the events of the past few years have made me terribly worried. But I'll also say that a large proportion of the US was genuinely terrified and outraged about these developments, precisely BECAUSE they take democracy for granted. It's quite possible the pushback against the encroachment of fascism will lead to a more energized generation and that we'll get over this hump. And note that when I say that "we'll get over this hump" I don't mean that we'll therefore have democracy forever... merely that it's not a done deal that the US is going to be a worse place to live than other places. Frankly, I really hope it stays as a relatively good place to live, because I doubt the rest of the world will be habitable if it's not, given the forces at play. (This isn't going to stop me from getting Canadian papers for the kids just in case. But I think that if we have to flee to Canada, the world will be the kind of place where there are only temporary refuges, not a safe place we can stay.) 

Edited March 22, 2021 by Not_a_Number

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, Ordinary Shoes said:

Yes, we take democracy for granted but we also take a white majority for granted too. The American democracy has always been somewhat of a myth. What matters more in this country, the history of democracy or white supremacy? IDK. Democracy has been selective. I think so much of what we see today is that tension of what we think the USA is (majority white) and what is actually is. Is it that we expect to democracy to thrive or that the white minority of this country expects to be charge? I think there's a tension there which was highlighted by everything we saw after the election. And it's probably worse now than it was before everything we went through after the election. 

I dunno what matters more, but almost all the countries that are currently democratic also have an ugly history of racism and white supremacy. And if not white supremacy, then something-else-supremacy. Racism and classisms and all the -isms are very natural. We can and should fight them but we probably can't fully eradicate them. 

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, Dreamergal said:

This. The US has issues but I would not stay here or have my children live here when we do not have family around if I do not think overall this is a better option. We would have gone back long ago or moved. There are other places in this world where you can make a lot more money, pay zero taxes and go back. We gave up our citizenship in our country of birth to live here, it is not something DH and I did lightly.

I think we understand the pull of this as immigrants much better than Americans born here.

[saraha]

Ok, so In trying to figure out what to look for next, I can honestly say supply chain issues because of a wreck in the Suez Canal was definitely not one of them!

Edited March 27, 2021 by saraha