Ebola article

[JoJosMom]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/12/opinion/what-were-afraid-to-say-about-ebola.html?emc=edit_tnt_20140911&nlid=745484&tntemail0=y&_r=22

 

In an earlier thread I mentioned that my biggest fear about Ebola was its potential to mutate. This article discusses those concerns. Viruses are scary, Ebola particularly so. 

[Aura]

Your link requires you to log in to The New York Times.  But here's a link to an article from the Times, I'm not sure if it's the same one you're talking about. What We're Afraid to Say about Ebola This came through Google News, so hopefully it won't require signing in. (I didn't have to when following from Google.)

 

Anyway, yes, the potential to mutate is scary.

 

I wonder just how badly this is going to affect Africa. When words like "decimated" and "unstoppable" are being used when talking about the outbreak in Africa, I fear this is already a TEOWAWKI event for Africa. :(

 

I don't wonder about whether it will spread to other countries, including the U.S. I believe it will. I do wonder exactly what kind of spread we will see. It could get really bad in densely populated areas. On the other hand, other countries are forewarned, so they may be able to catch it before it ever gets a hold of an area, which I hope to be the case. When other outbreaks do happen, how bad will they be?

 

There's just no way to know how bad this will be. It could be globally catastrophic, but I don't think that will be the case. But exactly how much this is going to change things and whether or not it comes to my area is still up in the air. (I live close to a major university which is involved in a lot of international travels through students coming in and programs, etc. going out, so there's a higher chance of it coming here than in another city that doesn't have this kind of influences.)

[JoJosMom]

Sorry about the link problem.  I don't know how to fix it; tech challenged here.  :o

[gardenmom5]

these figures from WHO were posted in a comment.  they can offer a reality check as to how serious this is.  it is completely out of control - patients are being turned away - which means they are not contained from infecting others.

 

Increase in cases for Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, between August 1 and September 6, according to the WHO.

Guinea 485 to 862 = 78%
Sierra Leone 646 to 1,361 = 111%
Liberia 468 to 2,046 = 337%

 

 

it was also pointed out that during the two years of the spanish flu, it killed 1/5th of the world's population.  it also was not actually a flu, though researchers are not quite sure what it was.  something where pneumonia was common.

 

I don't recall if it was this article - or another, that commented what a sloppy little virus ebola is - and mutations are common. 

 

eta; while I'm not worried about getting this - yet - I do live in an area with a high international population and international travel is common.

[duckabell]

From what I've read, things look especially bad for Liberia. Even if it doesn't go airborne, it will still continue to spread there with the lack of sanitation and health facilities. As of a couple of days ago there wasn't any available beds for patients with Ebola in Liberia. Many people live in areas without running water or the means necessary to sanitize their homes or protect them when caring for their loved ones.

 

When I saw the WHO numbers for potentially 20,000 deaths in an article last week, I thought it was crazy that those numbers could get that high. Now, with what I've read the last few days and seeing that the growth curve for this epidemic and the limited number of medical supplies and personnel, 20,000 seems low. I wouldn't be surprised if it turned into 100,000 or more, especially if it takes weeks or months for other countries to send the needed supplies and personnel. When the outbreaks are this large normal epidemiological measures like tracking contacts become very, very hard. A large epidemic would also increase the chance for people to cross borders and for the virus to mutate. This doesn't even address the economic conditions of people afraid or unable to go to work, of forced quarantines,  or of people dying from other diseases or starvation.

 

I know I sound a bit pessimistic, but the world's response to this crisis seems to be too little too late for some of the worst-hit countries. It seems to have caught us by surprise. Of course anything that is sent will help and save lives, but this epidemic has grown beyond what Liberia can control at the moment. It sounds like some of the other countries that are affected have been able to keep it more in check and provide needed medical care and education so that is hopeful that countries that have resources and practice tracking of contacts and quarantine have been able to mitigate the outbreak. 

 

As far as people saying it could never spread to the US because we don't eat bush meat or touch corpses at funerals, that's true to some extent. We have good health care, running water, and have been educated at how to stop disease. However, I don't think we should be too cavalier about it if it does show up in the US. People are people and viruses are good at spreading. Someone may have been exposed without knowing it -- perhaps it was spread at day cares, or fluids in public, etc., and may think they just have the flu and so they go in to work because they really need the hours, or they tell themselves it's nothing because they don't want to be stigmatized, etc. 

 

I'm not worried about it affecting my life right now, but I am watching the headlines. I do have faith in science and being able to find a vaccine or treatment for this in the next few 4-8 months. With the high death rate and infectiousness of Ebola, I think that drugs could be pushed faster to affected areas without the normal testing. That won't be soon enough to stop what's going on in Liberia and other affected countries, but it would hopefully be enough to treat small outbreaks and prevent more widespread outbreaks. 

[Slartibartfast]

From what I've read, things look especially bad for Liberia. Even if it doesn't go airborne, it will still continue to spread there with the lack of sanitation and health facilities. As of a couple of days ago there wasn't any available beds for patients with Ebola in Liberia. Many people live in areas without running water or the means necessary to sanitize their homes or protect them when caring for their loved ones.

 

When I saw the WHO numbers for potentially 20,000 deaths in an article last week, I thought it was crazy that those numbers could get that high. Now, with what I've read the last few days and seeing that the growth curve for this epidemic and the limited number of medical supplies and personnel, 20,000 seems low. I wouldn't be surprised if it turned into 100,000 or more, especially if it takes weeks or months for other countries to send the needed supplies and personnel. When the outbreaks are this large normal epidemiological measures like tracking contacts become very, very hard. A large epidemic would also increase the chance for people to cross borders and for the virus to mutate. This doesn't even address the economic conditions of people afraid or unable to go to work, of forced quarantines,  or of people dying from other diseases or starvation.

 

I know I sound a bit pessimistic, but the world's response to this crisis seems to be too little too late for some of the worst-hit countries. It seems to have caught us by surprise. Of course anything that is sent will help and save lives, but this epidemic has grown beyond what Liberia can control at the moment. It sounds like some of the other countries that are affected have been able to keep it more in check and provide needed medical care and education so that is hopeful that countries that have resources and practice tracking of contacts and quarantine have been able to mitigate the outbreak. 

 

As far as people saying it could never spread to the US because we don't eat bush meat or touch corpses at funerals, that's true to some extent. We have good health care, running water, and have been educated at how to stop disease. However, I don't think we should be too cavalier about it if it does show up in the US. People are people and viruses are good at spreading. Someone may have been exposed without knowing it -- perhaps it was spread at day cares, or fluids in public, etc., and may think they just have the flu and so they go in to work because they really need the hours, or they tell themselves it's nothing because they don't want to be stigmatized, etc. 

 

I'm not worried about it affecting my life right now, but I am watching the headlines. I do have faith in science and being able to find a vaccine or treatment for this in the next few 4-8 months. With the high death rate and infectiousness of Ebola, I think that drugs could be pushed faster to affected areas without the normal testing. That won't be soon enough to stop what's going on in Liberia and other affected countries, but it would hopefully be enough to treat small outbreaks and prevent more widespread outbreaks.

I was talking about bush meat but I am not at all cavalier about it. I think the international community should be working harder to provide sustenance to these countries to help slow the spread of the illness.

 

Americans *do* eat squirrels, armadillos, possum, and other wild animals. They tell people all the time not to eat armadillo because they carry leprosy but people still do it. 2/3 of leprosy cases in the US are because people eat them. That was why I said people wouldn't stop eating bats even though bat eating was banned in the areas impacted by Ebola atm. People cannot just give up a source of protein very easily, not without suffering.

 

The illness isn't in the local wildlife like it is in Africa. People don't tend to eat bats here but they do eat bat in Africa. If it was in our local wildlife then I would probably start to panic. One would have to worry how it might spread into domesticated farm animals or even pets.

[plansrme]

I think it is interesting that people all over the world are concerned about Ebola's potential impact on "Africa," yet barely anyone in the international community batted an eye when Hutus in Rwanda killed 800,000 or a million Tutsis. Not the OP, just generally--we possibly are not really concerned concerned about Africa but, rather, about its potential to spread to us.

 

And really--not anyone on this thread or any of the others about Ebola, but the international community sat on its hands knowing full well what was going on in Rwanda yet professes to be all over this outbreak.

[Caroline]

I think it is interesting that people all over the world are concerned about Ebola's potential impact on "Africa," yet barely anyone in the international community batted an eye when Hutus in Rwanda killed 800,000 or a million Tutsis. Not the OP, just generally--we possibly are not really concerned concerned about Africa but, rather, about its potential to spread to us.

 

And really--not anyone on this thread or any of the others about Ebola, but the international community sat on its hands knowing full well what was going on in Rwanda yet professes to be all over this outbreak.

You are so right.

[Slartibartfast]

I think it is interesting that people all over the world are concerned about Ebola's potential impact on "Africa," yet barely anyone in the international community batted an eye when Hutus in Rwanda killed 800,000 or a million Tutsis. Not the OP, just generally--we possibly are not really concerned concerned about Africa but, rather, about its potential to spread to us.

 

And really--not anyone on this thread or any of the others about Ebola, but the international community sat on its hands knowing full well what was going on in Rwanda yet professes to be all over this outbreak.

That was twenty years ago. It is hard to believe it was that long ago.

 

I would hope the media and our ability to transfer information has changed a great deal over the past twenty years. I would hope that if something similar happened now things would be different.

[Trish]

I say we ignore it until we have symptoms!