For Perry: what now until the vaccine is ready?

[Alicia64]

Perry, enormous thanks for all your expert advice on swine flu. How lucky are we to have you on this board??

 

Given that we only have about 1.5 months to go before the vaccine should be available, what's your advice for the next 45 day period. Hunker down until the vaccine is ready to go?

 

Just, as usual, wash hands?

 

I'm keeping my kids out of obvious spots to get germs: McDonald play spaces, the play space at the gym etc. I think I'll even avoid play dates especially with public school kids until we get the shot.

 

But last winter I'm pretty sure I picked up a mild virus at our library. I retraced my steps and am pretty certain that the library was the only place I'd been the particular day when I would have been likely to get the germ.

 

So, then my question is: should we really, seriously limit our public visits to libraries, grocery stores etc.?

 

I'd love your opinion. I sure don't want to go over board. At the same time, I really don't want us to get the flu before we know how dangerous vs. mild it's going to be.

 

Also, can you point me to a good list of what to have around the house? Pedialyte, saltines. . .

 

Thanks again,

 

Alley

[Cricket]

I haven't been too worried but there was an article on the front page of the paper today that said a White House report is predicting 50% of Americans will be infected this fall. Not sure how many people get the flu every year but that sounds like a lot! Do I start worrying yet?

[Ibbygirl]

I haven't been too worried but there was an article on the front page of the paper today that said a White House report is predicting 50% of Americans will be infected this fall. Not sure how many people get the flu every year but that sounds like a lot! Do I start worrying yet?

 

 

I'm wondering too. I think because the swine flu is a new strain it has much more attention, but I'm wondering also how many people typically get influenza every year. :confused: I'm sure Perry can chime in on this one. My ds goes to public school and he's in the Autism cluster to boot, (lots of kids chewing on things and putting things in their mouths. My son included) plus with us being a winter tourist destination, we usually get bugs from all over the world down here in the winter. :eek: I hope it is not a cause for concern. None of us have ever had the flu before. I'm hoping it will be the same with the H1N1.

[NoPlaceLikeHome]

I am a little concerned since I have asthma and my ds has a history of severe croup on many occasions. In June we both got sick and I hope it was swine flu. It took me 8 weeks to fully recover and my ds did still get the croup again which I was hoping he outgrew. After this last episode I am a little afraid of getting sick since I have always responded to medications within days of taking them. I never used to be afraid of getting sick and even thought of myself of having a strong immunity as a nurse. However, now I am a little afraid.

 

 

I question if we should scale back on some of the activities we have planned for the fall. However, I do not want us to be isolated. Maybe I will compromise and not do every activity known to man and only do some;).

[Peela]

Here in Australia the swine flu is the main flu. For most people it is not too much of a big deal and they have stopped testing. Yes, some people are getting sick and dying, but almost all of those have underlying health conditions.

I wouldnt get in a panic about it since we down here are living through it and its no worse than normal flu. I know kids who have had it and didn't get very sick at all.

[OHGrandma]

Here in Australia the swine flu is the main flu. For most people it is not too much of a big deal and they have stopped testing. Yes, some people are getting sick and dying, but almost all of those have underlying health conditions.

I wouldnt get in a panic about it since we down here are living through it and its no worse than normal flu. I know kids who have had it and didn't get very sick at all.

 

"Underlying health conditions"... that's what I keep reading, but when the news publishes some of the relatives stories you find out the underlying health conditions are things like pregnancy, overweight, asthma, diabetes, children; things you don't normally expect to make the flu worse or even deadly.

In our household we have our daughter back at home for a while. She is 35 weeks pregnant, has mild asthma, has a 1st & 3rd grader in public school. Our 10 yr old grandson lives with us, he's a 5th grader in the same public school. My husband is on tons of meds for an autoimmune disease, rheumatoid arthritis. He also has asthma and allergies that irritate the asthma every fall. I could stand to lose a few pounds, so that's my risk area for an 'underlying health condition'.

Yes, I am worried.

[Beth in Central TX]

I haven't been too worried but there was an article on the front page of the paper today that said a White House report is predicting 50% of Americans will be infected this fall. Not sure how many people get the flu every year but that sounds like a lot! Do I start worrying yet?

 

Actually, I'm skeptical of this White House prediction in light of the fact that they are trying to pass their health care reform bill. The high prediction may just be part of a scare tactic to "take advantage of the crisis". Of course, we'll take precautions at home to not get the swine flu (or any other flu for that matter), but I think the swine flu will play out in the U.S. like it has in Australia; unless we get a lot of media hype again and needless panic sets in.

 

They've linked the new swine flu vaccine to Guillian-Barre syndrome, so our family will not be getting that vaccine anytime soon. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=107064); our family has never opted for the flu vaccine anyway, so I don't see why we would start now.

[hornblower]

see this thread

http://www.welltrainedmind.com/forums/showthread.php?t=124033

for the discussion we had yesterday on this subject.

 

 

Also - recent global stats are that almost 1/2 the fatal cases have NO underlying conditions. The 'underlying conditions' mantra is something that I personally fully believe is meant to pacify the public - but is in fact baseless. The stats I've seen on the underlying conditions range from 40-49% do NOT have an underlying condition.

 

 

"At the same time, the presence of underlying medical conditions will not reliably predict all or even most cases of severe illness," the UN health agency said.

"Worldwide, around 40 per cent of severe cases are now occurring in previously healthy children and adults, usually under the age of 50 years.

"Some of these patients experience a sudden and very rapid deterioration in their clinical condition, usually on day five or six following the onset of symptoms."

 

Also important to note that in the US "75 per cent of serious cases and 60 per cent of deaths among people under the age of 49."

[AuntieM]

Hornblower, perhaps you said this in the other thread and I missed it, but where do you stand on the vaccine? Will your family be taking it? Perry?

 

Feel free to take the 5th if you'd rather not say something that would make you feel responsible for swaying the whole board...

 

I'm just wondering if you think the vaccine will be safe and effective, or whether you are relying on other methods of prevention/treatment.

 

I appreciate the input you and Perry have given. You are so valuable and appreciated!

[hornblower]

Actually, I'm skeptical of this White House prediction in light of the fact that they are trying to pass their health care reform bill. .

 

You're viewing this through a very narrow lens. This isn't an American issue. While I agree that domestic issues and policies can muddy responses to such challenges, this is truly a global problem and is being addressed globally.

 

These same #'s are being crunched all throughout the Northern Hemisphere.

[hornblower]

Hornblower, perhaps you said this in the other thread and I missed it, but where do you stand on the vaccine? Will your family be taking it?

 

I'm still dithering. I'll disclose this: we are fully vax'ed but we delayed & messed with timing a lot, as well as trying to use unbundled (as opposed to combo) vax. But my ds had a reported reaction to his last vaccine & developed deep tissue cellulitis which still recurs now - 6 years later. He is officially cleared to take vaccines again but of course I think about that.

 

 

My only desire as far as 'swaying' the board is to ever so gently suggest that people should not dismiss this disease out of hand and to stay home if you're sick - even if it's 'just a cold'.

 

 

From a public health perspective you of course want everyone eligible to get the vaccine. That is the best way to reduce morbidity and mortality and to keep the economics of the world functioning.

 

(& btw, I think people underestimate how important that 3rd issue is; if 10, 20, 30% of your under 49 workforce is not at work, things really start to slow down).

 

From an individual perspective, I need to consider my own family's circumstances. As homeschoolers, I can initiate fairly severe social distancing very quickly. Dh currently takes public transit to work. Starting in the next few weeks, he'll be adjusting his start & end time so that he's travelling on more empty trains. If things worsen, he'll take the car (& then we'll really be stuck at home as I only have 1 car). If things really deteriorate more, he'll work from home.

 

I don't expect vaccines to be ready soon. Mid-Nov is I think still optimistic and by then we will hopefully have some better data on how the disease is evolving.

 

So, my own scale of this issue is

 

5. definitely take it

4. very seriously consider it

3. seriously consider it

2. doubt it

1. no @#$%^ way

 

If I were pregnant now - well, that would be tough. I think I'd be lining up for it. Verdict: 5

 

If I or kids had asthma/diabetes/COPD/immune disorders etc, I'd be lining up. Verdict: 5

 

If I had kids in public school, I'd be very seriously considering it. Verdict: 4

 

If we didn't have full medical coverage and if dh didn't have essentially unlimited paid sick time, I'd be very seriously considering it. Verdict: 4

 

As it is, I'm only 'seriously considering'. Verdict: 3

[Beth in Central TX]

You're viewing this through a very narrow lens. This isn't an American issue. While I agree that domestic issues and policies can muddy responses to such challenges, this is truly a global problem and is being addressed globally.

 

These same #'s are being crunched all throughout the Northern Hemisphere.

 

No, I'm not looking through a narrow lens. I'm staying well informed of what's going on and the numbers that are being crunched. However, I truly don't trust the U.S. government to be completely honest about this; they've taken advantage of too many other issues to push their own agenda. I really don't see a difference in this one, and the media will follow right along.

 

I'll take whatever the "White House" says with a grain of salt, and then see what the global experience and response are as well before I make decision regarding our family. I'm also following the response and action of our state health department.

[AuntieM]

Hornblower, thanks for your thoughtful reply. I'll be keeping my eyes and ears open on this issue. I have two kids that are mildly asthmatic, but their main trigger is the common cold. They probably rate a #5.

 

Thanks again.

[Elohcin]

I'm with Beth.

 

My family is very well informed and my husband is a physician. I just don't buy into this fear. I will be discerning, but not afraid.

[fshinkevich]

 

The 'underlying conditions' mantra is something that I personally fully believe is meant to pacify the public - but is in fact baseless.

 

:iagree:

 

I don't think it's all hype, if anything I think they are downplaying the concerns to keep people from panicking.

 

Several things stand out for me - the age group that's being impacted, the fact that it is going strong during the summer months when flu is usually a non-issue, and it has already mutated twice, to a tamiflu resistant strain and into turkeys.

 

Also I read somewhere, I think it may have been the CDC, that 1 in 3 people has an "underlying condition", which makes sense. Almost all of us has SOMETHING wrong with us! :001_smile:

 

I'm not normally one to be concerned with things like this, but this one is keeping me on my toes.

[Perry]

 

They've linked the new swine flu vaccine to Guillian-Barre syndrome, so our family will not be getting that vaccine anytime soon. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=107064); our family has never opted for the flu vaccine anyway, so I don't see why we would start now.

 

This is not true.

 

There was an apparent increase in GBS at the time of the 1976 swine flu vaccine, so this time there will be increased surveillance for GBS. There are no reports of increased rates of GBS so far with the current vaccine.

[Perry]

My comments in red.

Hornblower, perhaps you said this in the other thread and I missed it, but where do you stand on the vaccine? Will your family be taking it? Perry?

Yes, we'll get it. The sooner the better, as there is going to be a shortage.

 

Feel free to take the 5th if you'd rather not say something that would make you feel responsible for swaying the whole board...

:D

 

I'm just wondering if you think the vaccine will be safe and effective, or whether you are relying on other methods of prevention/treatment.

The seasonal flu vaccine varies a lot in its effectiveness. My understanding is that we may need two doses of this vaccine in order for it to be effective, but those studies aren't done yet.

 

I posted this elsewhere:

This vaccine, like any medication, is not risk free. Safety studies aren't done yet, but as far as I know nothing unusual is showing up. Unless something totally unexpected happens, the vaccine ought to be very safe. The risk of the vaccine is very low compared to the risk of the disease.

 

There are concerns about Guillain-Barre syndrome, because there was an apparent increase in GBS associated with the 1976 swine flu vaccine. I don't know if the mechanism has ever been explored or explained. So this time, there will be increased surveillance to see if cases of GBS rise. This concerns me somewhat, because whenever you increase surveillance of *anything* you are bound to find more cases, because you're looking for it harder. So there may be an apparent rise, but it may have nothing to do with the vaccine. I expect we'll hear more about this in the coming months.

 

We will get the vaccine.

 

I appreciate the input you and Perry have given. You are so valuable and appreciated!

Thank you!:)

[Perry]

Perry, enormous thanks for all your expert advice on swine flu. How lucky are we to have you on this board??

 

Given that we only have about 1.5 months to go before the vaccine should be available, what's your advice for the next 45 day period. Hunker down until the vaccine is ready to go?

 

Just, as usual, wash hands?

 

I'm keeping my kids out of obvious spots to get germs: McDonald play spaces, the play space at the gym etc. I think I'll even avoid play dates especially with public school kids until we get the shot.

 

But last winter I'm pretty sure I picked up a mild virus at our library. I retraced my steps and am pretty certain that the library was the only place I'd been the particular day when I would have been likely to get the germ.

 

So, then my question is: should we really, seriously limit our public visits to libraries, grocery stores etc.?

 

I'd love your opinion. I sure don't want to go over board. At the same time, I really don't want us to get the flu before we know how dangerous vs. mild it's going to be.

 

Also, can you point me to a good list of what to have around the house? Pedialyte, saltines. . .

 

Thanks again,

 

Alley

 

I guess it depends a lot on what level of risk you're willing to accept. Personally, I'm going to be vigilant about handwashing, and will try to avoid crowds of coughing hacking people. But I generally do that anyway, so it's not a big deal. I don't plan to cancel any regular outside activities, but that could change if things go downhill.

 

If I were pregnant or we had other risk factors (asthma, immunosuppression, etc.) I think I would probably be a little more cautious.

 

I also would recommend going to the doctor at the first sign of illness for Tamiflu.

 

Thank you for the kind words. :)