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RegGuheert

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Everything posted by RegGuheert

  1. Briefly my thesis is this: - Money is a proxy for energy. - Fiat money (money not based on anything) systems require an increasing quantity of money/credit to continue functioning. (It is a Ponzi scheme.) - Oil production is at it's worldwide peak. Other forms of energy are growing, but not quickly and they will peak in the future. - The ongoing disconnect between the growing amount of money in the system and the non-growing amount of energy means there will be a significant dislocation between the financial system and reality. As global oil production begins to contract, things will get worse more quickly. IMO, we have only seen the beginning...
  2. Our family has been preparing for the coming depression for quite a few years now. My overall goal as the head of this household is to provide a safe environment for my DW and DC where we can weather the storm and still grow in our faith and also education. However, I'm hopeful that by being prepared, we can also be a blessing to others who are now or will be in need. I don't know what opportunities may arise in this regard, so it is hard to plan for it. Still, I trust that the Lord will bring these to us as he sees fit. Here are a few things that have been going on at the Guheert residence: 1) Reducing monthly expenditures to limit impact of losing our one income: - Eliminated mortgage, tractor loan, car loans and land telphone line. - Reduced cellular expenses. - Avoid adding any monthly expenses (no cable, satellite TV, etc.) - Haven't reduced internet, yet, but will if job does not hold out. 2) Growing more and more of our own food: - MomsintheGarden has 1000 sq. ft. of raised beds which she plants very intensively. Lots of GREAT food comes from there. This garden is inside a fence where deer cannot get to it. - Together we added a potato garden this year in which we planted 50 lbs. of seed potatoes. This garden is outside the fence. - Looking to add more garden space outside the fence and moving some crops out from raised beds. The idea is to grow as much deer-proof food outside the fence to gain more space in the raised beds. - Canning/freezing/root cellaring as much as we can to store food year round. - We just bought a chicken house and hope to get the chicks this week. The little kids should love that! (Our CAT should also love it!) 3) Storing up consumables: - Food. We're storing up long-term storables such as wheat and canned goods. - Homeschool curriculum. We are fortunate that we graduated our oldest a year ago and so we have *most* of the materials we need for the others. We are trying to purchase any additional materials now that may be needed to get the rest of our DC through. - Computers. We have a bunch of these. Hopefully we can get along for quite some time without any new purchase. - Cash. We normally do not use cash, so it is a change for us to have any on hand. However, with the possibility of banking disruptions, it seems to make sense to have some around. How much is enough is anyone's guess. - Entertainment. Lots of books and movies around. OTA and FTA TV are free, and with a DVR, they don't take over our lives. We also enjoy the Wii and Wii Fit! 4) Energy - We have photovoltaics for electricity, but this system is currently in need my attention to repair a battery issue. This can run all of our needs, including the well pump, refrigerators and lighting, assuming we are very careful with consumption. - Diesel tank is full. Unfortunately, only the tractor runs on diesel. It would be nice to have at least one diesel car, but I'm not sure I can justify the purchase. - Propane tank holds enough for about 1 year of consumption. This is used by the cookstove and dryer only. - Generator for worst-case situations. Need to convert to run off propane. - Heat for winter. This is our biggest issue. We currently have a wood pellet stove and a heat pump. Each of these can heat our house, but they both require us to purchase energy each winter. I think if things get very bad we will need to purchase a wood stove and install a chimney. I had a chainsaw accident when I was 20, so I'm not looking forward to purchasing one of those! 5) Building a social network - We've managed to find a local church which has suited us for the past five years or so! (No simple task, IMO!) - We have started trading goods/services with one of our neighbors. They are old-fashioned and we have some complementary gardening/farming capabilities/crops, etc. We would like to do this with more of our neighbors. 6) Building alternative income streams - Building investments which may be able to provide income through the storm. Right now, junk bonds are my favorite! - Looking to build our own businesses to provide long-term income from multiple sources. Solar energy and/or software seem like two obvious possibilities, but farming may be a possibility. It's pretty rocky, here, however. I'm interested to hear what others are doing to prepare. I know it is a daunting task, as we feel like we still have significant preparations to make, but don't really know if there is sufficient time/energy/funding to pull it off. Thoughts? Reg
  3. I'm pretty sure you are NOT in the teeny minority. At least I HOPE you are not!
  4. This closely matches our experiences, as well. Perhaps it is just because I am cheap: DS19 and DD16 both have had cell phones for several years, but they have T-Mobile plans called Kid Connect: Unlimited calling to T-Mobile, but only 100 minutes per month otherwise. Text messages consume 1/4 minute each... Anyway, they almost never use their phones, even my son didn't when he was away at college. IMO, it's not a bad thing. Perhaps there are benefits to being a cheap Dad! :D
  5. I also have suffered BPPV and will say the symptoms listed by the OP are pretty much identical to my first episode approximately 15 years ago. My experiences matches that of Cinder fairly closely, although I was NOT pregnant at the time. :D Reg
  6. Potbelly Sandwich Works is one of my favorite places and I *think* the chain started in DC. I've been to several of the DC locations and they have all been good. Enjoy!
  7. It's pretty sad that someone actually 1) thought up that term and 2) used it.
  8. I see this, too, Ruthie. In several churches we have attended, the worship of money seems to have come about when the church decided to take on a large debt as a part of their first building project. As the building project expands, more and more of the worship time gets devoted to the discussion of money. At one of our past churches where I was an elder, our pastor told us that in many churches and christian trade magazines, families are referred to as "giving units". We are fortunate to now be in a buildingless church that does not plan on building in the future. The ministry is focused on PEOPLE. It's a very nice place to worship!
  9. You have a good memory! MomsintheGarden and I are both VT EEs. That's where we met! Our DS19 just finished his freshman year at Tech, but there is no way he would become an EE, since both of his parents did that! :D
  10. Or over the parking lots. My employer just installed a 3-acre solar-electric system over one parking lot at one of our facilities. I'm sorry, but I do not know where to find a picture of that array, but it is pretty impressive. Unfortunately, it would not even come CLOSE to powering the entire factory. Agreed, it would be a start. That's true, and it is the approach which California subsidizes. Some home installations in CA that have electric vehicles can sell electricity during the daytime for around US$0.28/kWh and buy it back at night for around US$0.05/kWh. In those cases, given the amount of sun in CA, subsidies, etc., the systems can often pay for themselves in about 8 years. Sounds cool! No, I've never had the opportunity to do that. I do remember reading a couple of years ago that the *average* speed for the winning solar car in the race across Australia was OVER 60 MPH! Thanks!
  11. My favorite place to learn about solar power is Home Power Magazine. There you will find articles which cover many aspects of solar and wind power including design projects of various sizes, many advertisements from vendors large and small and discussions of other issues such as regulations and politics. Unfortunately, they no longer offer their magazine online for free. Just a word of caution: Dealing with electricity can be VERY dangerous! Solar power systems are definitely NOT an exception here. As such, please be sure that your son has some supervision in the areas of design and/or safety. I am an electrical engineer who is also familiar with electrical building codes (which DO cover solar electric installations, BTW) and would be happy to try to assist him with project ideas and/or safety issues as time permits. One project of which I am very familiar which can be done on a reasonable budget is solar barn lighting. I've designed a fairly straightforward approach which can typically be done more cheaply than burying a wire from the house. With a few exceptions, most of the parts can be obtained locally. I have installed a couple of these systems for friends, so I also have some field experience with this project.
  12. It's true. I'm willing to support my opinions, if so desired. Politics certainly plays into this discussion in a BIG way, so I would say ignore that subject at your own peril. Thanks, but that's only true if I'm not being offensive in my passion. I'm sorry to have singled out your quote, but I consider the argument you put forth to be a very commonly-used straw man to prove that solar power is not currently cost-effective. My only goal here is to point out that there are other factors to consider when looking at this issue. I apologize if I have offended you. That's very true. But please keep in mind that each of us that considers this issue has different information, biases, motivations and worldviews. I suspect that some of these conclusions are not correct! :tongue_smilie:
  13. It's a good question! Aren't inquisitive children a blessing? You are correct, you are getting shot at!:D While I agree with your basic premise that solar is not cost effective in America, my personal belief is that this is BECAUSE of too many government incentives, not too few. Last time I looked into it (during the early Bush II years), the federal government was subsidizing the coal industry to the tune of $2B/year compared with solar at $70M/year. That's a funding ratio of about 28.5:1!:confused: When you consider that these subsidies to coal/nuclear have been ongoing for DECADES, what you realize is that we pay a LOT more for traditional energy than our power bills indicate. My thesis is that solar power is currently CHEAPER than both coal and nuclear power, but that we, as consumers, cannot realize this benefit since we are forced to pay for the traditional sources, whether we want to, or not. I've seen this calculation done many times, but I feel there are several fallacies included in most of them. Here are some issues I have with the above: 1) As mentioned above, it is important to consider all CURRENT and PAST subsidies that were applied to all technologies considered. This changes the calculations DRASTICALLY. 2) Coal, nuclear and hydroelectric power are best suited for CENTRALIZED applications. In other words, you have a large power plant and distribute the power to the loads. Solar power (specifically photovoltaics) are best suited for DISTRIBUTED applications. When comparing a centralized system to a distributed system, it is important to consider BOTH the entire cost of the power plant PLUS its distribution system when you look at the cost of the centralized system. This HUGE additional cost is often overlooked. 3) It is important to consider that there are distinctive technical differences between centralized and distributed power generation systems. For instance, a centralized system can be completely brought down by a single fault (or by some small number of faults). By comparison, a distributed power system is MUCH more tolerant of faults, such that faults that occur only affect a small portion of the overall system. How often have we heard in the news about the vulnerability of our current power systems to terrorist attacks? (Please note that I am NOT saying that power from solar is more reliable than the centralized systems, just that it is much less likely to lose power to a large group at one time.) 4) It is also important to notice that there are very distinctive POLITICAL differences between centralized power systems and distributed ones. Simply put, a distributed power system puts more power in the hands of the people while a centralized power system concentrates more power in the hands of corporations and the government. (If your son wants to understand one of the most significant reasons there is not a lot more solar power in the US, he may not have to look too far beyond this point!) 5) The cost comparison of coal and nuclear to solar power often ignores the fact that coal and nuclear power BOTH rely on mining (depleting) fuel sources which are LIMITED in quantity. While we could argue endlessly about exactly when the generation of coal and/or nuclear sources will peak, the fact remains that if we geometrically increase our consumption of these resources, a peak will occur. Once the production peak of a depleting resource is reached, its cost goes up drastically in order to reduce the demand to match the reducing production curve. As such, assumptions about the future operating cost of coal and/or nuclear power plants can be DRASTICALLY OPTIMISTIC. 6) Coal and nuclear power pollute the environment SIGNIFICANTLY more than does solar power. The true cost of this assault on the environment is very hard to quantify, and it can not be fully accounted for in terms of dollars. 7) Inherent in nuclear power generation is the risk of a meltdown of the power plant, as has already occurred at Chernobyl and Three Mile Island. Trust me, it can happen again, in spite of the assurances we have received to the contrary. (Because of the moratorium on construction of new nuclear power plants, most existing nuclear power plants in the US are having their operational lives extended WAY beyond their original design lifetimes.) No such risk to large populations of people exists for solar power generation. It is also important to understand that all of us have ALREADY PAID for the power systems which we use every day. As such, we would typically need to THROW OUT something which works perfectly well in order to change to a new power source. Finally, we have had subsidized power, which makes it apparently, but not actually, very cheap, for so long that we have not yet learned how dear energy really is. As such, we are EXTREMELY wasteful of the valuable energy that we have. This is the first thing you learn when you install a new solar power system for a home: It is CHEAPER to reduce your energy consumption than the design the system for your currently-high energy usage. As a result of all of this, if I were to design any government programs to correct the balance of energy technologies, I would do the following things: 1) Eliminate all subsidies to all energy sources. 2) Require that ALL new construction that requires an ongoing supply of energy build (or pay for) BOTH the source as well as the load. Such an approach FORCES that the optimum generation technology be employed. (Distributed power would NOT be required here, but some arrangement to pay full costs for power generation AND distribution would be required. Please note that solar-thermal technologies exist TODAY that are competitive with coal and nuclear power plants, at least in the deserts of Arizona and California.) The bottom line with the acceptance of solar power, as is true with most (all?) new technologies, is that it must achieve performance that is SIGNIFICANTLY beyond the incumbent technology before acceptance becomes widespread. In my industry, the typically-accepted performance level for a changeover is 10X. In other words, our customers will not change to a new technology until the new technology is 10 TIMES better than what they are using today. For solar, I suspect it will not require a 10 times cost improvement, but I would not be surprise if it takes 5X. (In case you haven't noticed, this is a subject about which I am fairly passionate! Someday I intend to quit my day job and move over to this growing industry.) Thoughts?
  14. Thanks to all for the warm welcome!:001_smile: I'm likely I'll be tossed out long before that, Bill! But one can still have aspirations!:thumbup: I'm glad you think so! Still, I must say that I believe I would not be a welcome participant in MOST threads around here. I will try to discern which posts those are and use restraint. Unfortunately, I'm not very long in the restraint suit :blushing:, so I'm sure I will fail sometimes. Please accept my apologies in advance! I've added a signature block with that information. I've also revealed the identity of DW, much to her chagrin, I'm sure! Please don't blame her:Angel_anim: for the content of any of my posts! O.K. I admit it. But how did you know? Any more importantly, how did the forum software know?:confused: You can expect to occasionally see posts from these other personalities. When you do, please be sure to place the blame squarely where it belongs: with he/she/it! :001_rolleyes: Great! So I'm NOT alone on this point!
  15. O.K. My first thread here, so please go easy on this Dad. I'm just commenting on my new status here: "Hive Mind Larvae". If I remember my Latin correctly, this is the FEMININE PLURAL form of the noun. Now I can see why feminine gender is assumed on this forum, but I still consider myself to be just ONE person! :D Anyway, I get the impression there are quite a few Latin experts on this board, so please correct me if I'm wrong. Otherwise, perhaps one of the mods here would consider changing this title to "Hive Mind Larva". Yours truly, RegGuheert Hive Mind Larvus
  16. I do this. Our giving, by itself, is more than the standard deduction. Also, IRS Form 1040 Schedule A is pretty clear to have a separate line for "Gifts by cash or check. If you made any gift of $250 or more, see instructions". (Any cash gift over $250.00 is apparently a red flag for a possible audit.) As such, I make a point to always make charitable gifts in the form of a check. Assuming a marginal tax rate of around 42% (for both Federal and State), any money that we give beyond the standard deduction amount effectively gets multiplied by a factor of 1.7. If you consider that we also have other significant deductions (state taxes), then even more of our charitable giving gets multiplied by this factor. To me it is simply a matter being a good steward of what God has provided as well as giving unto Caesar what is Caesar's AND NO MORE! ;)
  17. To me, tithing is simply a matter of obedience. About 20 years ago, we decided to begin tithing, even though we did not feel that we could afford it. We felt that we should take this straightforward step in faith and see what happened. All I can say is "Wow!". We have been blessed in the area of finances ever since we started tithing. No longer is money a point of contention in our marriage! That was NOT the case before we started tithing. There are still plenty of other areas where we still need to have faith and OBEY, but at least now we have a clear example of the blessings that come from obedience in the Word of God! I encourage you to take this step of faith. My experience tells me that God will not forsake you. Blessings, Reg
  18. To me, this is the travesty of the "Buyer Protection" on eBay. If the seller is AT FAULT, why does eBay/PayPal think it is up to the buyer to pay for return shipping? I had a large, expensive item that was defective in a way that caused it to be destroyed (internally) in shipment. Not only did I have to pay for return shipment ($100), but I also had to pay to get PROOF that it was defective. And what did I get for my troubles? Negative feedback. Some "Buyer Protection"! :angry: Since I bought from an individual, I did not have recourse through BBB. Yes, but once you win a claim against a seller, you LOSE your chance to give negative feedback. As such, I've concluded that really what's in place is "Seller Protection". We also have GREATLY reduced purchase on eBay since this experience, although we occasionally still purchase there. Agreed that the arrangement at Amazon.com with resellers has teeth in case of a problem. Amazon Market Sellers tend to respond very quickly because of this.
  19. IMO, that's a training issue, plain and simple. Our DS is maintaining much higher grades than DW or I, even though his college is fully paid and we both had to work to help pay for our educations. Agreed that having to pay for college makes one appreciate the value of the education. However, the drawback to working during school is that it takes away time that could be used for studying. As an aside, DS had one professor tell them that in this economy graduating engineering seniors with GPAs below 3.4 were NOT getting interviews. I have no way to verify this, but given the large number of ongoing layoffs, it seems possible.
  20. Dictation helps a child really think about mechanics and spelling. Copywork does too, but dictation is one step up in difficulty. It is a good brain exercise, and I've found it to be very useful for the elementary years. You can use anything, but I'd recommend beginning with something easier than your child's skill level. The Well-Trained Mind talks a bit about dictation, as well as many Charlotte Mason resources (websites, too). Try it and see if you like it! GardenMom
  21. As JFS in IL has posted, our DS also was not interested in driving when he turned 16. He's 19 now and still only has his learner's permit and no car. This has saved us a lot of money. Fortunately, he has just secured a spot in honors housing, which will keep him on campus for all four years, assuming he keeps his grades up. As such, we now do not plan on getting him a car or a license during college. There are two main aspects to our plan to pay for college: 1) Minimize college expenses and 2) Pay as we go (no debt). Here is how we are reducing college expenses: 1) Attend state universities. We live in Virginia which has excellent state universities. 2) No car, as discussed above. 3) Live on campus. 4) High academic achievement to provide scholarships. Like all you you here, DW is an OUTSTANDING teacher! :thumbup:This reduces costs and/or provides additional opportunities out of state. Pay as we go: Our approach has been a little different than others here. Rather than saving for college, we decided about 14 years ago to pay off all our expenses, including our mortgage, instead of investing for college. The benefit of paying off a mortgage is that you are guaranteed about 4% return (after taxes) plus your principle is guaranteed. This is contrasted with the state college savings program which only includes mutual funds. As of a couple of years ago, our debts were paid and much of our income has gone into investments since then. Now we are paying for college. We do not qualify for any aid, but the $14,000/year tuition is about what our mortgage used to be, so it is not a stretch. Our DS has qualified for a $2000/year scholarship for the next 3 years which will reduce the expense further. He has applied for additional merit scholarships, but we have not hear about them yet. We have asked DS to pay for college from his savings next year so that we can focus all of ours on investments. Our oldest DD has one more year of HS. She aced her PSAT, which has afforded her the opportunity to attend an out-of-state Christian school with full tuition paid. Our annual expenses should be about $7,000/year assuming she does not receive any further merit awards. DD will likely be studying biochemistry in a pre-med program, so we are having difficulty estimating expenses beyond the first four years. We are trusting God to lead us through the process (or not) of medical school, as we do not know what to expect. While it all sounds pretty rosy, with the greater depression setting in and 5 more DC to follow, it is not clear that we will be able to afford college for all of them. As katemary63 has posted, I think it is *very* possible that our situation will be different for the next 5. Only God knows the truth and we will trust Him. One final note: There is one drawback to not have cars for our DC in college: I end up using all my vacation shuttlings kids to/from school. There are a *lot* of such trips required for college, even with DS getting rides home with others as much as possible.
  22. We do this on our Wii or using a computer connected either through HDMI or a video cable.
  23. The Discovery Channel and the History Channel are the two that have occasionally made me consider paying for TV, but it's just not enough to warrant the hastle. My brother called me yesterday and he asked if I wanted a free-to-air satellite dish that he wasn't using. I told him that my setup was already too complicated, but then he told me I could get the History Channel for FREE! So I said sure. We spent a couple of hours installing and pointing the dish (which can sweep EVERY satellite in the sky!) and sure enough, we can now get the History Channel, the Biography Channel, many Christian broadcasts, the NASA channel, news in about 30 different languages and various sporting event broadcasts. There are *literally* hundreds of channels of programming available from this one dish. Anyway, for those of you craving the History Channel, it can be had for free together with the Biography channel and many Christian broadcasts on the satellite at orbital location 101W. If you just canceled satellite service, then you may be able to get this by repointing your dish and purchasing about $60 worth of equipment. Since my brother gave me his equipment (worth about $200), I guess we'll try this for a while. Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that the History and Biography Channels will be "free and clear" forever. FWIW, Reg
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