Can we talk about debt (country debt) without getting political?

[creekland]

Yes, Alabama can get quite chilly in the winter but it is fairly short. Still, if you are planning to travel in the summer to avoid heat/humidity it doesn't make sense to travel in the winter as well.

 

Those visa are expensive! Yikes. I have been thinking of splitting my time between different places once the kids are older (e.g. spend part of the winter in Spain, early summer in England, etc.). Luckily, I wouldn't have to worry about a visa for Europe (well, not for the most part anyway).

 

But given your parameters: green, warm climate, English speaking, not too far from the US - it does look like you are pretty much stuck with the Caribbean?

 

The summer travel would replace the winter travel, not be in addition to it.  We did the same when we lived in FL (for as much as we could at that time).

 

Yes, Europe is pretty expensive, but if one scrolls down on that list, there are plenty of attractive options (for us).  We just need to visit them and see if any truly "fit."  The Caribbean makes the most sense location-wise and it's what we keep coming back to for that reason, but Vanuatu is pretty darn appealing on paper too.

 

 

Hmmmm seriously look at St. Kitts now. Malta also is very attractive to us.

 

St Kitts always ranks pretty high for crime.  I'm not sure why, but have noted it.  Grenada is one we need to look more into as is St Lucia.  We like Vanuatu and might consider Comoros too if we decide we don't mind traveling further.  Fiji has even hit our radar.  But like HI, those require a bit of travel if we want to return (even more than HI does for Fiji, etc).

 

Malta costs to much for me to even consider it beyond this thread (esp with being desert).  There are less expensive decent options and we always like bargains.  ;)

[creekland]

ps  Just took a quick look at Comoros and language will be a problem, so it only made it to our list in this thread too.  Too many cons.

[Twolittleboys]

The one thing that would worry me about the Caribbean (as a permanent residence) is hurricanes/infrastructure. Of course crime/medical services etc. are also considerations but I don't know much about indivdual countries there to have any input. As always it is a matter of personal preference - a lusher landscape goes with either cooler temperatures or more rain, better infrastructure generally goes with higher cost of living, etc. It really depends on which criteria are most important to you.

[creekland]

The one thing that would worry me about the Caribbean (as a permanent residence) is hurricanes/infrastructure. 

 

And thus this thread and wondering if country debt ought to be part of our consideration - or not - esp since major hurricanes just happened and the issue came up with Puerto Rico (albeit, not a country).

 

The current infrastructure of many countries is enough for us.  We've never needed top of the line for much and consider a bit of it wasteful spending TBH.

[Twolittleboys]

And thus this thread and wondering if country debt ought to be part of our consideration - or not - esp since major hurricanes just happened and the issue came up with Puerto Rico (albeit, not a country).

 

The current infrastructure of many countries is enough for us.  We've never needed top of the line for much and consider a bit of it wasteful spending TBH.

 

Okay, so what I would do: 

 

If I am not mistaken you have (for now) pretty much eliminated everything but the Caribbean and New Zealand/Fiji/Vanuatu. I wouldn't use country debt as a metric but would instead look at

 

a) likelihood for natural disasters (based on historical data): Of course that won't be perfect and climate change makes this even more iffy. Still, I would assume that some islands are in a better (safer) location than others

 

b) likelihood of serious impact (e.g. low lying areas flood more easily)

 

c) wealth/financial ability of country/political stability - debt may be part of this but not necessarily a major factor. I would feel better about a country with more debt that has also higher employment, better infrastructure etc. than one with little debt that has none of these

 

As far as infrastructure is concerned, I hear what you are saying but not sure I agree that it is wasteful spending (probably because I am rather spoiled in that regard). I do think infrastructure (again thinking of roads, power grid etc.) for example in the US or Mexico is okay. But the better infrastructure is the better it can generally withstand potential problems. If you only have one road and it gets blocked you are in trouble. If there are several options it will be easier (though there can of course be too many roads). If power lines are above ground they are more vulnerable in storms etc. 

 

I would guess that if Puerto Rico had had a great power grid before the storm it would be easier to restore it.

[creekland]

c) wealth/financial ability of country/political stability - debt may be part of this but not necessarily a major factor. I would feel better about a country with more debt that has also higher employment, better infrastructure etc. than one with little debt that has none of these.

 

I gotta figure out how to do this.  I guess the time to do it might be after visits and we see who makes the cut, but since visits are after some family (parent) issues end, perhaps I just need to keep local news (for the areas) bookmarked and keep up on it.

 

Employment on many islands depends upon tourism.  That's a tough one to keep going after a disaster if one hits.  However, they might get a rise with other islands being out of commission right now.  So many new factors to think about, including "how likely is this to continue happening on a regular basis?"

[Lanny]

This article is about a city (Hartford) and a state (CT) but the issues are probably similar, when a country has debt. Possibly worth a quick read:

 

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/10/24/connecticuts-capital-faces-fiscal-meltdown-tied-to-union-promises-default-deemed-likely.html

[Lanny]

This article is about Venezuela. Note that there are people who own the Bonds, hoping they will not Default. Note that there are also people who bought credit default swaps, who are hoping they will default. On Wall Street, one can bet on almost anything...

 

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/25/venezuela-may-be-in-default-in-as-little-as-48-hours.html

 

Basically, I think what will happen, if they default, is that in the future they will need to pay higher rates of interest to borrow money, or, they will be shut out of the Bond market for awhile. 

[hepatica]

Debt is not the only thing that matters, as twolittleboys points out above.  Pretty significant differences between CT and Venezuela, the primary one being functioning governing institutions. Nobody in CT wants the disaster in Hartford to play out. Serious legislators have worked doggedly to find an actual governing compromise and as of last night it looks like the new bipartisan budget agreement might actually hold. The point is, strong, functioning governments are crucial to dealing with these sorts of crises. One might look back at this CT budget impasse and see it as an good example of governing compromise. I doubt many would say the same of the governing institutions in Venezuela. 

[Twolittleboys]

Debt is not the only thing that matters, as twolittleboys points out above.  Pretty significant differences between CT and Venezuela, the primary one being functioning governing institutions. Nobody in CT wants the disaster in Hartford to play out. Serious legislators have worked doggedly to find an actual governing compromise and as of last night it looks like the new bipartisan budget agreement might actually hold. The point is, strong, functioning governments are crucial to dealing with these sorts of crises. One might look back at this CT budget impasse and see it as an good example of governing compromise. I doubt many would say the same of the governing institutions in Venezuela. 

 

Yes, maybe a criteria could be overall economic stability/health instead of debt (obviously, debt could be a component of it). I would look at what industries are there, how successful they are, how good infrastructure etc. is, average income/wealth of citizens etc. Not in detail - more as a general impression (great, good, fair, bad or something). Looking at past disasters/challenges and how they have been handled might also be helpful.

 

Politicial stability is important as well. This can be difficult to predict but I probably would stay away from investing much in a place that is already having problems in that respect.