The Greater Depression: How are you preparing?

[Margaret in GA]

No. My preference would be for the federal government to get COMPLETELY OUT of the energy business, as it is not one of the powers enumerated for them in the constitution. (Not surprisingly, I have this same preference regarding education!) Unfortunately, this is not going to happen. The bottom line is that the government spends BILLIONS of US dollars subsidizing traditional energy technologies and HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS of US dollars defending the supply of oil overseas, while subsidizing alternative energy technologies to the tune of 10s or 100s of MILLIONS of dollars. As such, they are still GREATLY preferring the old technologies over the new ones using OUR money.

 

Ok. You lost me here. For a while I was thinking you were making sense and you made some good points. I do agree that oil is running out. But, you lost me when you said government needs to get out of the energy business. I am always bewildered when people think companies like Exxon will look out for our best interests. The fact is that sometimes the government needs to be involved. Like building interstate highways or funding the research behind NASA and the internet, sometimes industry and free enterprise cannot or will not step up and do the things that make our lives better. There is no other way to be energy independent without government intervention. Look at Spain and Germany. They have huge government backing for green technology and they are leading the world in the industry. I am not a fan of big government, but it is unrealistic to expect that capitalism will solve everything. It never has and it never will. And for what it's worth-- no I don't think we're headed for a greater depression. A deeper and longer recession? Yes. I am very nearly debt- free (just a small mortgage with plenty of savings) and live on a small farm where we grow plenty, but I have to agree with the poster that pointed out that if this is truly gets to the 'Mad Max' scenario you have laid out, my food's not safe any way. So, should I build a fortress?? I mean, at some point you make sure you have some money set aside and then you live you life in the moment. I mean, you could die of a heart attack tomorrow then what good would all your planning have been if you were so distracted by worry that you didn't enjoy your life?

Margaret

[Demal]

- Natural gas is plentiful in the United States. However, production of natural gas cannot be increased much beyond the current level. This is for reasons completely different than the issues affecting peak oil. Here is an excellent primer on the issues related to natural gas.

 

 

You need an updated primer on natural gas. The Marcellus Formation (New York and Pennsylvania) may contain as much natural gas as the Barnett Shale in Texas. The technology to extract the natural gas from Marcellus is relatively new and has only been in use there since 2008. (Your link is dated 2001.)

[BalanceSeeker]

There is so much debate on this, it's hard to know what is the truth. For example:

http://www.prisonplanet.com/archives/peak_oil/index.htm

[RegGuheert]

Ok. You lost me here. For a while I was thinking you were making sense and you made some good points. I do agree that oil is running out. But, you lost me when you said government needs to get out of the energy business. I am always bewildered when people think companies like Exxon will look out for our best interests. The fact is that sometimes the government needs to be involved. Like building interstate highways or funding the research behind NASA and the internet, sometimes industry and free enterprise cannot or will not step up and do the things that make our lives better. There is no other way to be energy independent without government intervention. Look at Spain and Germany. They have huge government backing for green technology and they are leading the world in the industry. I am not a fan of big government, but it is unrealistic to expect that capitalism will solve everything. It never has and it never will.

I tend to agree with you on these points. Unfortunately, our government is currently strongly driving and militarily defending the incumbent technologies. They could hardly do worse, IMO. Don't you think the states could oversee and regulate the energy industries in their states? (I guess I'm voting anti-federalist.)

And for what it's worth-- no I don't think we're headed for a greater depression. A deeper and longer recession? Yes. I am very nearly debt- free (just a small mortgage with plenty of savings) and live on a small farm where we grow plenty, but I have to agree with the poster that pointed out that if this is truly gets to the 'Mad Max' scenario you have laid out, my food's not safe any way.

I'm sorry, but I must have missed the post I made where I laid out a 'Mad Max' scenario. Can you please point it out to me? Others have implied that I used terms such as "collapse of society", etc. I'm just not sure from where that is coming. The term I have used is "Greater Depression", which implies an economic depression worse than the Great Depression. I specifically do not use the term "Greatest Depression", as others on the web do, since I consider the dark ages to be the "Greatest Depression". I do not forsee that.

So, should I build a fortress?? I mean, at some point you make sure you have some money set aside and then you live you life in the moment. I mean, you could die of a heart attack tomorrow then what good would all your planning have been if you were so distracted by worry that you didn't enjoy your life?

Margaret

It sounds like your family is prepared in a similar manner to my family. You can refer to the first post in this thread for my preparation details. As such, I don't fully understand your questions.

 

Also, perhaps you have not read other posts I have made on this forum. I tend to give light-hearted responses in many cases, probably to a fault. I don't think many people that know me would say that I don't enjoy my life, but who knows what others really think...

[RegGuheert]

 

You need an updated primer on natural gas. The Marcellus Formation (New York and Pennsylvania) may contain as much natural gas as the Barnett Shale in Texas. The technology to extract the natural gas from Marcellus is relatively new and has only been in use there since 2008. (Your link is dated 2001.)

Thanks! That's excellent information! Do you have a good reference for this so that I can learn more?

[Demal]

Thanks! That's excellent information! Do you have a good reference for this so that I can learn more?

 

There's a Wikipedia article on the Marcellus Formation with some references, including a DOE primer on shale gas dated April 2009:

 

http://www.netl.doe.gov/technologies/oil-gas/publications/EPreports/Shale_Gas_Primer_2009.pdf

 

I haven't found anything very recent on natural gas on the peak oil websites (only a quick Google admittedly).

 

Because of technological innovation, I think there will be a longer and slower decline rather than a sudden crash.

[RegGuheert]

There's a Wikipedia article on the Marcellus Formation with some references, including a DOE primer on shale gas dated April 2009:

 

http://www.netl.doe.gov/technologies/oil-gas/publications/EPreports/Shale_Gas_Primer_2009.pdf

 

I haven't found anything very recent on natural gas on the peak oil websites (only a quick Google admittedly).

Thanks! I'll have a look!

Because of technological innovation, I think there will be a longer and slower decline rather than a sudden crash.

Contrary to popular belief, I agree with you! :001_smile: I even expect a very modest rise in available energy, but nothing too much different than a flat curve.

 

I just don't believe the current world economy can withstand anything other than steady growth. We'll see...

[KingM]

Yes, the natural gas situation has changed dramatically for the better in the last couple of years. Of course it will run out eventually too, but if we're wise (wouldn't that be nice?) we can use natural gas as a bridge from oil to something else.

[Margaret in GA]

Reg,

I don't mean you specifically, but I have seen these posts from time to time here (and have a friend IRL) from folks that get so worked up about a doom and gloom scenario. Especially my 'real life' friend. She would be really disappointed I think if the economy doesn't totally tank. And you didn't describe a Mad Max scenario specifically, but read this quote from one of the writers of Mad Max :

"In 1973, the Arab oil-producing nations convulsed most of the world by tightening the spigots on their wells and sharply reducing production. Corporations, and nations including Japan, went into crisis mode and many started to think of ways to lessen their reliance on petroleum products.

As the after-shock waves began to subside and black gold started to flow again, most enterprises kicked petroleum replacement well down the agenda.

Yet there were further signs of the desperate measures individuals would take to ensure mobility. A couple of oil strikes that hit many pumps revealed the ferocity with which Australians would defend their right to fill a tank. Long queues formed at the stations with petrol – and anyone who tried to sneak ahead in the queue met raw violence.

............

George and I wrote the script based on the thesis that people would do almost anything to keep vehicles moving and the assumption that nations would not consider the huge costs of providing infrastructure for alternative energy until it was too late."

 

Clearly they thought that life without oil would be total chaos. Who knows. Hopefully, we'll have a nice, steady decline and it won't crash.

Margaret

[Jorsay]

you are acting like an overbearing a$$

Again, Peek a Boo, name calling only makes your argument sound desperate.

Your premise is based on your belief that you are right w/o error, when in fact that can't logically be since we are discussing what the FUTURE may hold. I can think of several scenarios where a family preparing for depression could easily reap some serious rewards even if a depression never hits.

 

 

Peek a Boo,

 

"right w/o error" is redundant.

 

Even if we ignore that, your statement demonstrates some confusion about basic logic and deductive reasoning. With this in mind, I think it pointless for me to address your other comments before we agree upon some basic principles of logic.

 

Simply speaking, a logical argument is built with one or more premises that lead to a conclusion. The argument may be attacked by either demonstrating one of the premises false or by claiming that the premises don't lead to the conclusion.

 

The first of your difficulties with logic seems to be founded in the very basics; the definition of a premise. A premise is a proposed fact. It may be true or not, but it is proposed as fact. Saying "Your premise is based on your belief that you are right" seems to indicate that you believe that one might logically propose an argument to be correct while building it with false premises.

 

You also seem to believe that logic can't make predictions about the unknown such as the future (peek a boo - "that can't logically be since we are discussing what the FUTURE may hold."), when in fact, that is the only thing that logic does. Your statement "Logic isn't always synonymous with 'correct.' Especially when you are dealing with unforseen variables in a future that none of us have lived."

 

Let's examine a simple argument.

 

Premise: Mary always goes to the store on Sunday.

Premise: Tomorrow is Sunday

Conclusion: Mary will be at the store tomorrow.

 

Do you see here, Peek a boo, how logic predicts the unknown and the future? Perhaps Mary will not be at the store tomorrow, but if that is so, one of the premises must also be wrong. Also, whether or not we believe in a premise has no bearing on the validity of the argument. The argument stands on logic alone. Nor does calling me names affect the argument.

 

Although basic mistakes, your errors in logic and your resulting reliance upon name-calling are common in heated debates.

 

If you agree with these points, and which to continue in a civil tone, it may be fruitful for me to continue and explain your misunderstanding concerning "not necessarily".

 

How about it? :D

Edited June 28, 2009 by Jorsay

[ciyates]

...however the US has more than enough oil to last for many many many years. The government made a decision to use everyone else's natural resources before its own. Anyone who has ever been in the US military and received any type of clearance nows this. There are oil reserves all over and plans in place to extract it.

 

As and ECONOMIST I can guarantee you we are headed for a depression. SO WHAT? That is the natural cycle of money. Should you be paying off your debt absolutely! Scale back where you can. I have yet to honestly see an economist who didn't agree with the fact we are headed for a depression. You don't hear it broadcasted from the news channels because it will cause panic. The US will take a step back in its standard of living. Are we going to have people dying in the streets from hunger? Maybe, but not to the extent some people want you to believe.

 

What every you do please do NOT buy gold. If I can beg you to listen to me on one point it would be that. If you would like to read my thesis on that I would be happy to send it to you (all 200 pages). Just look through modern times and see when gold was used to buy the necessities.

 

 

 

WE are very interested in living off the grid (not because of fear mongering but because we want a simpler lifestyle). We have seriously educated ourselves on the advantages of wind versus solar, heirloom stock versus genetically modified etc.

[creekland]

As and ECONOMIST I can guarantee you we are headed for a depression. SO WHAT? That is the natural cycle of money. Should you be paying off your debt absolutely! Scale back where you can. I have yet to honestly see an economist who didn't agree with the fact we are headed for a depression. You don't hear it broadcasted from the news channels because it will cause panic.

 

 

I am not an economist... but hubby is self employed and we know several others who are self employed (and employers) both locally and in other spots of the US. To a person, they all say work is DOWN more now than ever before. Ditto for those involved in sales (even the grocery store manager). It's getting kind of scary... I keep looking to see where the good areas of the US are. I previously thought we lived in one since our local unemployment is just 7.8%. Before all this hit it was 3.7%, so we took a hit, but it didn't seem that bad compared to the national average.

 

Arm and Hammer is opening a new factory near us - the newspaper said they already have roughly 5000 applicants or about 18 for every new job... (numbers may be slightly off due to memory issues). I feel fortunate that our area is the one getting the new factory...

[RegGuheert]

...however the US has more than enough oil to last for many many many years. The government made a decision to use everyone else's natural resources before its own. Anyone who has ever been in the US military and received any type of clearance nows this. There are oil reserves all over and plans in place to extract it.

I read The Energy Non-Crisis by Reverend Lindsey Williams about 10 years ago. I admit it was both fascinating and shocking. However, once I finished reading this book, I came to the realization that I had NO WAY that I could verify the information in the book one way or another. Still, it's interesting...

 

Here is a "more recent article where there is an attempt to confirm the assertions of that book.

 

Anyway, I find it interesting to see a comment about this subject when I haven't seen or heard a single mention of it in the past ten years. If you have more evidence about this subject, please provide it.

[Donna T.]

To me, this places God into the category of welfare provider. If Noah had "trusted God" in this manner, then I suppose we would not be having this conversation today!

 

Noah received a direct revelation from God with a very particular set of instructions to be carried out. And, I'm sorry, but my God is a welfare provider.

 

Matthew 6:25-34 (King James Version)

 

25Therefore I say unto you, Take no thought for your life, what ye shall eat, or what ye shall drink; nor yet for your body, what ye shall put on. Is not the life more than meat, and the body than raiment?

 

26Behold the fowls of the air: for they sow not, neither do they reap, nor gather into barns; yet your heavenly Father feedeth them. Are ye not much better than they?

 

27Which of you by taking thought can add one cubit unto his stature?

 

28And why take ye thought for raiment? Consider the lilies of the field, how they grow; they toil not, neither do they spin:

 

29And yet I say unto you, That even Solomon in all his glory was not arrayed like one of these.

 

30Wherefore, if God so clothe the grass of the field, which to day is, and to morrow is cast into the oven, shall he not much more clothe you, O ye of little faith?

 

31Therefore take no thought, saying, What shall we eat? or, What shall we drink? or, Wherewithal shall we be clothed?

 

32(For after all these things do the Gentiles seek:) for your heavenly Father knoweth that ye have need of all these things.

33But seek ye first the kingdom of God, and his righteousness; and all these things shall be added unto you.

 

34Take therefore no thought for the morrow: for the morrow shall take thought for the things of itself. Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof.

 

I happen to think it's important and non un-Biblical to prepare for perilous times, but I can't imagine having an ill opinion of a Christian who is simply trusting and obeying, for those are the ones that are going to see the Hand of God in power. The Scriptures are FULL of admonitions to not worry, to not even consider tomorrow for sufficient is the evil in each day, we don't even know if we have tomorrow.

[RegGuheert]

I happen to think it's important and non un-Biblical to prepare for perilous times, but I can't imagine having an ill opinion of a Christian who is simply trusting and obeying, for those are the ones that are going to see the Hand of God in power.

I do not have an ill opinion of those that take that view. I merely do not choose that for my family. It may very well be a simple lack of faith on my part.

 

I'm sorry if I have offended anyone with my statements.