Kathleen in VA Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 I just listened online to the weather channel. They don't expect it to slow down much over Cuba because the land it is traversing is low-lying. It's a Category IV now so they think it could easily become a Category V tomorrow. Yikes! I'll will certainly be praying for all the folks along the projected path. Oh, and they said they expect it to slow down and just dump rain for a long, long time once it makes landfall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoughCollie Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 This is scary. Here's an interesting recent article (put on Google 6 min. ago): http://www.raleigh3.com/default.asp?sourceid=&smenu=1&twindow=&mad=&sdetail=1280&wpage=1&skeyword=&sidate=&ccat=&ccatm=&restate=&restatus=&reoption=&retype=&repmin=&repmax=&rebed=&rebath=&subname=&pform=&sc=2724&hn=raleigh3&he=.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kathleen in VA Posted August 31, 2008 Author Share Posted August 31, 2008 Now the mayor of New Orleans is calling for a mandatory evacuation, calling Gustav the "Mother of all storms." I don't know why, but this announcement makes me well up with tears and I'm getting shaky just thinking about it. I'm glad people seem to be heeding the warnings, though, and are leaving. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robin in Tx Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 It's not projected to remain a category V, though... it will downgrade to a IV or III by landfall. IV would still be very bad, though. The waters are not as warm near shore as in the deep gulf, and that's why it will intensify tomorrow but downgrade as it gets closer to landfall. Katrina did the same thing. It was a category V Sunday, but a category III by landfall 6:00 AM Monday. We've been following this very closely, and the consensus for now seems to be that for it to be catastrophic to New Orleans, the storm's path will need to shift to the east about 50 miles or so... (to bring the worst of the storm surge into Lake Ponchatrain and N.O.). The uncertainty revolves around a high pressure building in the north east which, if given enough time to develop, will steer the storm to the west as it approaches landfall (or shortly thereafter) and cause it to stall somewhat. The faster the storm moves, the more northerly (or east) of the projected path and less it will flood. If it slows down any, it will likely get pushed to the west and possibly stall. For now, my area (Houston) seems in the clear. Stay safe everyone in coastal Louisana! Robin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamnkats Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 It will not be a Cat 5 at landfall. After Cuba (where the eyewall was badly mangled - it is not going through an EWRC, as some are speculating) it will hit a loop current eddy and TCHP of very high values which will allow it to rapidly intensify, however shear will be high (for the Caribbean, but by then it is in the GOM and I don't pay much attention to storms approaching the CONUS; only the Caribbean, so that shear could be normal) and that will probably also knock it down a bit. Fortunately, it will then hit a cool current eddy which will also knock it down a bit. Gustavo has been a bit of a mystery since it was an invest. Keep an eye on Dr. Master's blog and completely ignore the weather channel. Also, ever since Jamaica, Gustavo has been tracking east of the NHC line. He is still tracking east. There is huge speculation still about what that means. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kathleen in VA Posted August 31, 2008 Author Share Posted August 31, 2008 It will not be a Cat 5 at landfall. After Cuba (where the eyewall was badly mangled - it is not going through an EWRC, as some are speculating) it will hit a loop current eddy and TCHP of very high values which will allow it to rapidly intensify, however shear will be high (for the Caribbean, but by then it is in the GOM and I don't pay much attention to storms approaching the CONUS; only the Caribbean, so that shear could be normal) and that will probably also knock it down a bit. Fortunately, it will then hit a cool current eddy which will also knock it down a bit. Gustavo has been a bit of a mystery since it was an invest. Keep an eye on Dr. Master's blog and completely ignore the weather channel. Also, ever since Jamaica, Gustavo has been tracking east of the NHC line. He is still tracking east. There is huge speculation still about what that means. Thanks for the link and the info. I'm not sure what all those acronymns are though. Can you spell them out for a weather novice like me? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSMP Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 This is a great site to help track the storms...I hope all of our friends in the south are getting out of the path of this thing...... http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-gustav-2008 I would book mark this one......:grouphug: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nicole M Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 My inlaws called this morning, on their way out of New Orleans. They are old, and recovery from Katrina was very, very hard. My husband and son just went out last month to paint their house. Painting was the last item on their list of stuff that needed to be done after Katrina. (Painting! Outside! In New Orleans! In July! Now that's a labor of love.) It's really a scary thing, and especially hard for the vulnerable. Though, I guess when something this big hits, everyone is vulnerable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamnkats Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 Thanks for the link and the info. I'm not sure what all those acronymns are though. Can you spell them out for a weather novice like me? Aw, geez, I'm sorry. I've been sitting on the Masters blog all afternoon (checks clock) and evening just incase Gustavo decided to pull a punch and head towards us. GOM is Gulf of Mexico. We're on the Caribbean so I don't pay much attention to storms once they pass into the GOM so I'm not up on the shear there. CONUS is CONintentalUnitedStates. We're not there. :) TCHP is the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential and takes into account many factors including the SST (sea surface temperatures). High TCHP is good for intensifying a hurricane. He will intensify but he will probably also stall but seriously, read Dr. Master's blog and decide from the information there. EWRC is EyeWall Replacement Cycle and it is a normal occurrence for hurricanes. Dean hit 2 EWRCs just before hitting us and he was a hammer. An EWRC will lessen the intensity of a hurricane but only slightly as, if it goes into an EWRC as a Cat 4 many times it will come out a Cat 5. We saw that over and over with Dean and Felix last year. There is hopeful speculation that he'll have a EWRC just before landing, but that is just speculation because you can't trust the cone of uncertainty until about 12 hours out. Last year we had planned to evacuate right into what would have been the eye of Dean as he originally was forecast to hit us directly on. We waited until 12 hours out and headed in the opposite direction (Cancun). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kathleen in VA Posted August 31, 2008 Author Share Posted August 31, 2008 Aw, geez, I'm sorry. I've been sitting on the Masters blog all afternoon (checks clock) and evening just incase Gustavo decided to pull a punch and head towards us. GOM is Gulf of Mexico. We're on the Caribbean so I don't pay much attention to storms once they pass into the GOM so I'm not up on the shear there. CONUS is CONintentalUnitedStates. We're not there. :) TCHP is the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential and takes into account many factors including the SST (sea surface temperatures). High TCHP is good for intensifying a hurricane. He will intensify but he will probably also stall but seriously, read Dr. Master's blog and decide from the information there. Thanks, Kathy. If I had thought about it long enough I might have come up with Gulf of Mexico on my own, but definitely not the others. I'm going to try to memorize some of these, drop them in a conversation at church tomorrow and see how many people I can impress.:D OK, not really. But it is nice to know and I have bookmarked that blog and will start studying it. Thanks for pointing me in the right direction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robin in Tx Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 Here's a decent weather message forum (sponsored by the weather department of a Houston TV station - it is also the station that Neil Frank retired from and he is past president of NHC - the station has brought Frank back in to cover Gustav and the moderator of the forum has his "ear"): http://www.khou.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=23078&start=2055 I'm linking to the thread on Gustav. It takes a while to figure out who they are, but about half the people who post on that forum are professioal meteorologists who are paid either by weather service agencies or corporations (for evacuation decisions, etc.). Then there's a lot of amateurs who freak out everytime a tropical system earns a name :). Most the warnings and advisories show up on this forum before the public can see them. Interesting to watch if you really need to know what's going on. (Folks in southern LA would probably benefit from keeping an eye on this thread overnight). Robin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robin in Tx Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 That was supposed to be under Kathleen. Sorry! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donna T. Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 I'm on the Gulf Coast. Praying for all my neighbors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kathleen in VA Posted August 31, 2008 Author Share Posted August 31, 2008 Here's a decent weather message forum (sponsored by the weather department of a Houston TV station - it is also the station that Neil Frank retired from and he is past president of NHC - the station has brought Frank back in to cover Gustav and the moderator of the forum has his "ear"): http://www.khou.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=23078&start=2055 I'm linking to the thread on Gustav. It takes a while to figure out who they are, but about half the people who post on that forum are professioal meteorologists who are paid either by weather service agencies or corporations (for evacuation decisions, etc.). Then there's a lot of amateurs who freak out everytime a tropical system earns a name :). Most the warnings and advisories show up on this forum before the public can see them. Interesting to watch if you really need to know what's going on. (Folks in southern LA would probably benefit from keeping an eye on this thread overnight). Robin Thanks, Robin. If you scroll down a bit there is a link from a person named Susie to a very, very cool map of Gustav. It is in motion and spans about 5.5 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robin in Tx Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 Hardcore just potsed that the 10pm update is going to shift the track to the east a little... he's got a pipeline to somebody. That's bad news for New Orleans. Links to things you could never find yourself on that thread... some of it personal stuff of the meteorologists (their working data, etc.). ETA: Forgot to say - yes that view is awesome... you can even see the ridge building in the north that everyone is talking about!! Thanks for mentioning it because I hadn't checked out Susie's link. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumping In Puddles Posted August 31, 2008 Share Posted August 31, 2008 I just saw the headline " Mayor: Get out of New Orleans right now and I got chills. Hopefully everyone has enough notice to get out to safety. This must be terrifying. :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kathleen in VA Posted August 31, 2008 Author Share Posted August 31, 2008 I just saw the headline " Mayor: Get out of New Orleans right now and I got chills. Hopefully everyone has enough notice to get out to safety. This must be terrifying. :( I had the exact same reaction. It's making me tear up again right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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