[Maryland: do you like it?]

sent you a pm. 🙂

[Too many chefs in the kitchen (marriage related)]

If "Anyone" starts doing this type of thing to "Anyone Else" in the household, Else will usually ask something like, "Should I put the black queen on the red king?"

But we are also dry humor/sarcasm people so it may start a fight somewhere else.

[This thread will self-destruct in...]

I can't even fathom what someone would complain about and you and I disagree on quite a lot! Like the complaint is that you work there and post here under the same name?

Sorry this happened!

[how to find a realtor when you are going to buy a house?]

We are in the process of buying a house and used a buyer's agent. We found a highly rated realty company online, called them, asked to talk to their buyer's agent, made sure we kind of "clicked" or felt comfortable with him and we went from there.

[wuhan - coronavirus]

3 hours ago, square_25 said:

We can't close state borders. As long as the pandemic is raging somewhere in the country, none of us are all that safe, especially if like me you live in a city with lots of tourism. 

No, we can't, but clearly spikes and such are regional. The NE remained at very low positivity through the entire sunbelt peak and decline.

Also, apparently one county in TX added a ton of old positives over the last couple days if I'm reading this link right? If that contributes to an overall number of positive test in the US in the range of 5 figures, then it tells you close to nothing if you're looking at daily positive tests for the US as a whole.

https://twitter.com/JoeWo2020/status/1308218944692592641?s=19

I not trying to change your mind, just adding perspective to the thread. I get we disagree, probably even with the idea of what is "raging" or what it means to be "all that safe" or what we do until we are safe.

[wuhan - coronavirus]

Just now, EmseB said:

Yes, that's why I like Hold2's data on Twitter. He seems to account for a lag in reporting and makes charts that overlay day of death vs. day reported if states provide it, with the month each death occurred.

Which, yes, I know he comes from a particular viewpoint, but the data is sourced and reported honestly, he just draws different conclusions from it than some.

Quoting myself to add, there are some conspiracy theorists out there who think the deaths are being deliberately held back and reported later to create a kind of false tail so that people don't think it's over and done with...like some deaths being reported go back to May and June. I happen to think is just bureacracy.

[wuhan - coronavirus]

2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Reuters has this morning that death rate in the US is up 5pc.  There seems to be a lot of different stats around which don’t add up.  Maybe to do with backfilling older deaths or something.  The trouble with that is it seems like how ever you do it you create issues either artificial spikes if you put it all as today or an artificial sense of decline if you back full but today’s aren’t current.  

Yes, that's why I like Hold2's data on Twitter. He seems to account for a lag in reporting and makes charts that overlay day of death vs. day reported if states provide it, with the month each death occurred.

Which, yes, I know he comes from a particular viewpoint, but the data is sourced and reported honestly, he just draws different conclusions from it than some.

[wuhan - coronavirus]

2 hours ago, square_25 said:

Haven't monitored all the states. Just monitoring overall positivity right now. 

Oh, I hardly ever look at US data as a whole. The areas and issues at play seem too diverse for it to be meaningful, but we are probably watching numbers for different reasons. 

[wuhan - coronavirus]

1 hour ago, square_25 said:

Positivity's been going down, so we expect deaths to continue to go down for at least 2 weeks. After that, who knows. People will be going inside in the colder states, and that will probably be bad. 

Is positivity still going down in places that have opened for quite awhile? I thought at least one of the southern states (GA? AL?) has had schools open for quite awhile. It seems a lot of states have maintained declining positivity with indoor dining and such opened up?

[wuhan - coronavirus]

1 hour ago, square_25 said:

Nah, it’s probably worth doing!! Not like there’s any harm, and it’s useful for other stuff. It’s just inertia.

However, I’m very curious whether it actually helps.

Vitamin D is the only supplement my very evidence-based, pro-vax ped recommends, FWIW. You might give yours a call and ask.  

We have been inside so much these last few weeks because of the smoke I've tried to be extra vigilant about giving it, but even with outdoor time the doc says you need way more sun than is healthy to get enough vit D.

[My chickens just ate one of their eggs. Help]

I also have read that feeding the eggshells to them is very healthy. I read this on homesteadandchill.com, but I can't find the exact post. Maybe it would stem their taste for actual eggs?

[wuhan - coronavirus]

9 hours ago, Pen said:

 

I would guess that colleges are a part of it.  A lot of cases were picked up as returning college students were tested.  But there are other sources also continuing.   I am sure the fires and hurricanes situation has not helped. Conditions in shelter facilities and fire fighting camps don’t lend themselves to maintaining good distance, and the smoke probably adds to lung impairment. In my county there have been new outbreaks in senior living facilities also. 

 

I found some of this data helpful for us metrics.

https://twitter.com/Hold2LLC/status/1308051762407002113?s=19

 

[Has the pandemic made you rethink where you live?]

10 minutes ago, Bagels McGruffikin said:

Pretty sure the poster who suggested it really does think that poorly of us and our beliefs 🙄

 

I didn't take it as thinking poorly of conservatives, but just, as a conservatarian Christian myself, those two countries in particular would be on my top 10 places of where I'd not be welcome and are pretty much the opposite of my political and social values. I feel like I missed a joke somewhere. 😂

[Has the pandemic made you rethink where you live?]

I think I am misreading sarcasm because lol at Russia or Iran being a good place for American conservatives or libertarians to move to, especially Christians.

[wuhan - coronavirus]

9 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Yeah it’s a different thing to normal vaccine development because everyone’s watching closely.  I think for me on that situation that would make transparency even more important because there’s so many conspiracies and skepticism that any whiff of a cover up is going to make people even more suspicious.  On the other hand there are certainly anti vaxxers who will amplify any event of this nature as well.  So I guess it’s a hard line to walk.

My problem with transparency, such as it is, is that there are very few people who have the background or contextual information to have any idea what any one single data point might mean (do we even know for sure the person who had the issue was in the placebo group or not? I may have missed that.). And your penultimate sentence is the exact concern I have. People are already talking about the company denying the true nature of the event or trying to cover something up. It is all pretty standard anti-vaxxer rhetoric being adopted by people who would not otherwise be anti-vax, meanwhile, every medical professional I know or have read who knows anything about vaccine development says this is a normal part of the process of trials, even the lack of information being released until the trials are complete. Making this one "different" so more information is released preemptively to the general public seems like a recipe for disaster to me.

Transparency seems like a good thing all around, but in the case of RCTs of any kind I think it can really muddy the waters and affect outcomes.

[wuhan - coronavirus]

I think the speculation about the event is why they try not to release details about these things before scientists can look at all the data as a whole.

[Cuties and cancel Netflix?]

9 minutes ago, Danae said:

My kid’s stage combat instructor is also a sex-scene safety coach and choreographer. I find it absolutely outrageous that you’re comparing his work to grooming. It is the exact opposite. Most of what he does is, as for stage combat, making it look like damaging things are happening without them actually happening. Using camera angles (for film) or staging angles, using cut always, all sorts of things that trick the viewer’s mind into thinking they saw things that the actors don’t really do. 
 

It’s a role in the production team that was introduced relatively recently in response to the horrific way women and girls were treated for years in film production. People in that role are a huge positive for actors, including child actors. 

Well I find it outrageous that there is apparently a need for there to be a job for someone to make it look like (kids?) are in sexual situations on film even though they aren't, so we can both sit in our respective houses and be outraged.

But lol at Hollywood being a newly safe place for kids and women because someone now has a set job of "keeping them safe" when the director wants it to look like they are being exploited but they are fine and don't even have any idea what is being cut to look like!

Every defense of this practice makes it all sound worse and worse.

[Florida, positivity rate, reporting, what the heck?]

2 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

Hers lines up with everyone else (but FL DOH). 

What? I was just at their site and they specifically say they do NOT include antibody tests. 

And the problem with Florida and everywhere else doing it their own way is there is no way to compare from place to place. Also, it is NOT accurate to count positives once no matter how many you get, but negatives more than once. 

Ack, I think I was reading the chart wrong! I can edit my post! I was wrong!

However, FL isn't the only state that differs from JHU.

I can't find where it speaks to FL, but this article suggest JHU counts differently than at least a few states, MD and AZ being two. This article about MD says this:
 

Quote

 

Chan said the state chooses to report tests per day because they felt that was most consistent. She also said the state is in communication with Hopkins and others about reported data.

On Thursday, Dr. Jennifer Nuzzo, the lead epidemiologist for the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center's Testing Initiative, said Maryland is reporting in a transparent and comprehensive way and the discrepancy in numbers can be, in part, attributed to the fact that Hopkins uses one calculation to accommodate the wide disparities in reporting nationwide and can't customize calculations for each individual state.

 

The article about AZ says that JHU doesn't count some negative tests from some sites but the health department does.

Quote

 

AZDHS said in an interview with Arizona's Family that their numbers are lower because they do not include numbers from testing sites that do not report the number of negative test results while Johns Hopkins does.

A) The AZDHS assumes the results from these facilities have about the same average positivity as the rest of the sample and so discards them while the Johns Hopkins methodology treats these clinics as having a 100% positivity in their testing.

B) The Johns Hopkins reports treat all of the unreported negative tests from these facilities as if they never happened while the AZDHS methodology treats all of the reported positive tests from these testing sites as if they never happened.

C) The AZDHS will rarely over report the positivity rate and can be useful as a lower bound while the Johns Hopkins data will rarely underreport the positivity rate and can be useful as an upper bound of actual positivity.

 

 

[Florida, positivity rate, reporting, what the heck?]

18 minutes ago, Fifiruth said:

Our Progressive Democrat governor said a couple of days ago that our positivity rate was about 1%.

J.H. has it listed as 3.17%, or 3x as high.

 

Conspiracy!

[Florida, positivity rate, reporting, what the heck?]

2 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

Ok, so John's Hopkins, Covid Action, etc are doing a straight "number of positive tests done that day, divided by number of total tests done that day". Straightforward, can be used the same for all areas. 

Florida has all sorts of mathematical gymnastics involved (oh, and if the person isn't a "resident" they don't count them in a lot of the stats...even though we have a HUGE number of people that live here 5 months a year and who absolutely should be counted if they catch it here...not to mention the tourists, etc)

That doesn't seem to be an accurate picture of positivity, though. It seems like what FL is doing is way more specific and transparent and more broken down as to what actually matters for public health (not sure what you mean by gymnastics).

Edited because I was wrong!

[Florida, positivity rate, reporting, what the heck?]

I believe JHU counts non-new positives and AB positives in their figures? I have seen data for AZ that shows differences (pasted below), but not FL. I think on the chart you posted FL specifies what specifically they are showing the rate for?

 

[UTI?]

I would get in ASAP with those symptoms. If you're having kidney pain and fever with suspected uti you need to be seen and get some abx started.

[wuhan - coronavirus]

2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I guess my question would be if there’s a chance that 25pc of people are experiencing heart damage are we better to err on the side of caution or not?

I would want to know what you meant by erring on the side of caution, what you meant by "a chance", what is considered heart damage, and can we say definitively that covid is causing said damage or is the damage pre-existing and we see it because we are scanning people who have had covid. I would want to know what is damage relative to what happens to our hearts when we get any other myriad of viruses. Is it recoverable or permanent? So many questions based on what you are asking.

There are studies that find correlations between x and y all the time. In fact, a lot of that type of thinking and application of those studies and wanting to err on the side of caution is the heart of the anti-vax movement. It's profoundly unscientific, IMO, and not good for making public health policy that has to balance a ton of other factors.

[wuhan - coronavirus]

16 hours ago, square_25 said:

You’re doing a lot of argument by authority in this thread. I agree that you’re linking real people who have the right to an opinion, but there are also real people who disagree.

Why can’t we agree that we don’t know yet and there’s cause for concern?? That seems like an extremely minimal statement. 

I was responding to the critique that they were just random Twitter folks by giving their credentials. I responded to her points specifically. How can I respond that specific point without listing credentials?? I left this convo last night because I feel that you're now just picking apart things to disagree with for some reason I can't figure out. If I can't respond to a specific point about the people I'm linking (links that were asked for!) by explaining who they are, then I'm at a loss. Of course there are people who disagree! I was asked to provide links to the disagreements in this thread.

I don't know a lot of things. I do know that making billion dollar policy decisions affecting many lives based on headlines based on studies like these heart studies is something I disagree with. I also think that said headlines are putting fear into the hearts of many and after reading quite a bit, I think unnecessarily. I read many scientists and researchers who have informed that opinion and seen enough junk science pre-published and published in the last six months that I am not tending to lean the other way, but rather seen more sense in being wary of anything coming out about covid sequelae right now. I think this is a bad virus that is much worse for some people. I think anecdotes of said cases are unhelpful for informing public health policy which by it's very nature cannot continue on a covid-only approach. I think caution, masking, and distancing is prudent. 

I hope you and yours remain healthy, square_25. I don't know how to have this discussion with you though.

[Cuties and cancel Netflix?]

I keep imagining the exact scenario presented of a 50yo man ogling these girls on set from behind a camera and a bunch of people wanting to make sure they and their parents were comfortable with all of it and ensuring that the girls understood it was all okay because it's happening on a movie set. 🤢