Doug4907
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Posts posted by Doug4907
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12 hours ago, Penelope said:
Yeah, that study looks like bad news, no doubt about it. What I read is the idea that this was a very small study, that there is real world data that looks better, and that there are other suggestions that AZ would have some benefit against this variant.
There are lab studies on T cells, and there was one study that showed that one dose of AZ after natural infection was superior against B.1.351 compared to two doses of Pfizer in people without previous infection. (To me, that could also just mean that natural infection is better than any vaccine against certain variants, because it gives immunity to more parts of the virus than vaccines do, but I’ve seen this study promoted as suggestive that AZ must have some benefit).
I shouldn’t have said it’s wrong to say it’s ineffective, because it all depends on how “effective” is defined.
It’s odd that Johnson and Johnson was over 50% effective in South Africa in their trial, but AZ would be worse than that even though it’s a similar vaccine. Maybe it is, but I wonder why that would be.
Yes Penelope, it is bad news for Australians who only have access to the AZ vaccine, because of a gov decision.
For clarity, the Sth African research research, which was a small sample, showed that the AZ vaccine had no beneficial effect in preventing mild to moderate infection from the B.1.351 variant. The study was not relevant to severe infection only because in the total study there were no severe infections. ref: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2102214
A similar article https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210321/ChAdOx1-nCoV-19-vaccine-does-not-protect-against-South-African-SARS-CoV-2-variant.aspx , comments "The results of a double-blind, randomized, multisite placebo-controlled trial that was conducted in South Africa show that Oxford’s ChAdOx1 nCoV19 (AZD1222) vaccine has no efficacy against the B.1.351 variant in preventing mild-to-moderate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19), and shows reduced
neutralization properties of developed antibodies."Though it is a small-scale study it is particularly alarming to me, as the Aus gov prevents me accessing any alternative vaccine, I am old, have weak lungs, and a simple cold virus inevitably lands me in hospital for two weeks on oxygen, sometimes in a critical condition. At home, I live connected to an oxygen concentrator. I have never smoked (anything); I have asbestosis.
Just like the UK variant, the Sth African variant has spread to numerous countries. In Aus it is regularly detected in citizens returning from overseas, however our strict quarantining has so far stopped that variant from being locally transmitted. But like the US and elsewhere the controls are slowly being lifted. There has been zero mention of the risk by our Gov-employed medical representatives.
Pen, anyone, are there better studies of AZ and 351?
Take care everyone,
Doug
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😁 I just notice my status. "Hive Mind Larvae"! I guess you are labelling me a maggot?
I am just joking, and laughing. Thank you for tolerating me.
Take care,
Doug
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Unfortunately, in Australia, people are behaving as if all danger has passed. As I have said before nearly all Aussies are offered ONLY the AZ vaccine, so even those that have been vaccinated have little immunity to the Sth African and probably the Brazilian variants. Our controlled borders, intensive contract tracing, and the occasional rapid, short lockdowns have served us well, but community fatigue with the virus news is telling on some.
Our states have done all the control in spite of the lead from our Federal government.
The B.1.1.248 and the B.1.351 both have the same mutation. Are they the same?
A question for you good people: Do you have results from any study on the effectiveness of the AZ for the Brazilian variant, (B.1.1.248)?
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An update on serious blood clotting issues from AZ in Australia.
The government just released the latest on blood clots from AZ. You will recall that the AZ vaccine results in a very particular type of blood clotting making IDing the source of the clots relatively straight forward..
Our gov is very nervous about releasing such data, and I would not be surprised if some/much was being withheld. When cases are made public it is usually 2 or more weeks after the event has been determined. Treating hospitals cannot release such data. Case reports have to go to the gov and the gov decides what is released. sigh ...
The latest release detailed an additional five cases. All cases notified to the public are requiring long hospitalisation, occasionally ICU. The official numbers indicate one death, in total, from these peculiar clotting events. All clotting cases are in individuals over 50 yo. My calculations suggest that the rate of (reported) cases is a little less than 1:100,000.
The problem with a member of the public calculating the rate is that we have two figures to use. 1, the number of vaccinations with AZ, and 2, the official number of severe clotting, which we know lags by some weeks the number of vaccinations. You may recall that my previous posting on this side effect in which I calculated a rate of about 1 in 200,000 with the same caveat of the delay in reporting. So, as expected, as the vaccinations continue, the true rate will will undoubtedly worsen, and will asymptote to maybe 1:75,000 (my latest guess).
I find it terribly disappointing that the Australian gov is severely massaging any information that the public receives, and our government is the main source of misinformation. Misinformation is the wrong word. Some of the info they release is intentionally erroneous. As an Australian, I am very embarrassed to report that most lies come directly from the mouth of our popular PM. Our experience with previous PMs had resulted in most members of the public taking what is said by any PM to be the truth, and that belief is still strongly entrenched.
Australia has weathered the virus very well aided obviously by our isolation. Our states took charge of quarantine, etc, and have done a superlative effort.
My wife and I continue to have no recognisable side effects from the AZ vaccine (first dose only) 6 weeks ago.
Take care good people,
Doug
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On 4/24/2021 at 1:41 AM, Penelope said:
Do you know if it was primarily younger people?
I think 1 in less than 200,000 would be too high of a risk for me to recommend my young adult take it. It’s a pretty horrible complication.
In the US, we should hear the updated numbers for JNJ today and a decision about the pause.Hi Penelope,
As Ausmumof3 said, one was a male 80 (I think 80 yo, Ausmumof3 read 88), another was female 48 (fatal), another was a male 49. Recapping, 6 TTS cases, 3 of which were from about 50 and over. I don't have details of the others.
In Australia, our Gov has declared that the cases of TTS clotting are mainly confined to those below 50. The Aus gov has overwhelmingly backed the AZ vaccine, and has too much at stake to stop its use.
4 weeks ago, my wife and I had the AZ vaccine, when it was obvious that that was the only vaccine that was on offer was AZ. I am 72 with severe lung disease. Both of us had mild "flu" symptoms on day 2 and 3, but all OK since then.
Take care,
Doug
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The latest news in Australia:
- 6 confirmed clotting events as of 23 Apr 2021 from AZ jabs. These numbers when released refer to events that happened some days before, as it takes some days to confirm that the clotting is FROM AZ jab
- 1.1M doses of AZ as of 23 Apr 2021
- Assuming a delay between the above 2 bullet points, PERHAPS 8 clotting events per 1.1M AZ doses (all first doses). Equates 1 in 138,000 AZ shots. Assuming no delay in reporting the rate is 1 in 180,000.
- Real numbers, but very low occurrence rate.
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The Vaccine Thread
in The Chat Board
Posted
Yes a good review. From what we are seeing in Australia the Delta variant behaves very differently from the previous variants, and much of what Dr Campbell says needs to be broken down into the various variants, which to be fair to Dr Campbell, hasn't yet been addressed in new research.
By far the biggest change is that our children (and I mean less than 12 yo) are catching it and becoming seriously ill with Delta. In one outbreak, 10 out of 14 new cases were in children and it is suddenly exploding in schools. This is new in Aus.
In most states the response has been an immediate and severe lockdown, and that has stopped its progress. But in our most populated state, politics has interfered, and more emphasis was placed on "gold-plated" contact tracing. Well, this has failed to stop the spread in that state. The states that locked down immediately and hard, saw about a max of 10 new cases a day, whilst the recalcitrant state now has had >200 new cases every day and increasing. Lockdowns cause lots of pain and hardship, but humans learned 100s, perhaps 1000s of years ago that quarantine works.
The source of the virus, China, since the Wuhan outbreak, has suppressed the virus extremely effectively via sometimes brutal lockdown.