Current bird flu outbreak in cows has spread to cats and a human

[MercyA]

"On March 16, cows on a Texas dairy farm began showing symptoms of a mysterious illness now known to be H5N1 bird flu...The next day, cats on the farm that had consumed some of the raw milk from the sick cows also became ill. While the cows would go on to largely recover, the cats weren't so lucky. They developed depressed mental states, stiff body movements, loss of coordination, circling, copious discharge from their eyes and noses, and blindness. By March 20, over half of the farm's 24 or so cats died from the flu.

The early outbreak data from the Texas farm suggests the virus is getting better and better at jumping to mammals...On March 25, the US Department of Agriculture confirmed the presence of H5N1 in a dairy herd in Texas, marking the first time H5N1 had ever been known to cross over to cows. Since then, the USDA has tallied infections in at least 34 herds in nine states: Texas, Kansas, Michigan, New Mexico, Idaho, Ohio, South Dakota, North Carolina, and Colorado.

The Food and Drug Administration, meanwhile, has detected genetic traces of H5N1 in roughly 20 percent of commercial milk samples. While commercial milk is still considered safe—pasteurization is expected to destroy the virus and early testing by the FDA and other federal scientists confirms that expectation—the finding suggests yet wider spread of the virus among the country's milk-producing cows."

https://arstechnica.com/search/?ie=UTF-8&q=bird+flu

And now the current outbreak has spread to a human (warning, shows picture of farm worker's hemorrhaging eyes):

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/03/health/farmworker-bird-flu-infection/index.html

Anyone else concerned about this?

Please don't drink raw milk, peeps. 

[TravelingChris]

No

[Faith-manor]

I am very worried about raw milk. It is being toted heavily here among certain very conservative groups as the "cure to what ails you". It is very tricky to sell raw milk in Michigan. It isn't legal to sell, but it is legal to own a cow and not pasteurize milk for personal consumption so there are cow share programs where folks go in on owning a cow " boarded" on a dairy farm which allows them to pick up x amount of raw milk from their cow each week. We also have hobby farmers who keep belted Galloway or other smaller milk cows and do not pasteurize the milk. I feel like this is how bird flu is going to jump hosts to humans, and the kill rate is going to be like Black Plague of history levels. 

Just put the raw milk down.

[KSera]

2 hours ago, MercyA said:

Anyone else concerned about this?

I’m still pretty hopeful it’s not going to make the leap to transmitting person to person, but my concern is around the fact that I think we have a large segment of people that will refuse to take any precautions if it does, and that would be catastrophic. I think the more likely scenario is an impact on our food supply though, particularly eggs, chicken and milk. It’s already impacting egg production. 

[HomeAgain]

1 hour ago, Faith-manor said:

I am very worried about raw milk. It is being toted heavily here among certain very conservative groups as the "cure to what ails you". It is very tricky to sell raw milk in Michigan. It isn't legal to sell, but it is legal to own a cow and not pasteurize milk for personal consumption so there are cow share programs where folks go in on owning a cow " boarded" on a dairy farm which allows them to pick up x amount of raw milk from their cow each week. We also have hobby farmers who keep belted Galloway or other smaller milk cows and do not pasteurize the milk. I feel like this is how bird flu is going to jump hosts to humans, and the kill rate is going to be like Black Plague of history levels. 

Just put the raw milk down.

This is what I'm worried about.  This is something that, if it mutates to person-to-person transmission, will immediately begin affecting communities that are reluctant to stop the spread outside their community.

[Eos]

If COVID offers any lessons, we're doomed.

[prairiewindmomma]

I'm cautiously watching the situation.  When we see pig to pig transmission, we'll be at the step just before human transmission.  We're functionally like long pig in terms of immune systems.  I think we'll see a jump to human transmission once we hit widespread pig transmission. At that point (widespread pig) I'll pick up my N95 wearing in public again.

We're currently at the step of mammal to mammal transmission--I don't think we've hit a stage where human to human transmission is happening yet. We'd be at higher mortality rates.  We've been dang lucky as a society that we haven't hit this point before, but honestly this is one of the things I've been cautiously watching ever since the 1990s. It was a shock to me when covid happened--I really thought avian flu would be the pandemic we'd hit first.

Another fun fact---if viral loads are high enough, basic pasteurization may not catch all of the virus.  Ultra high pasteurized (UHT) milk (like the lactose free stuff in cartons) is what we're drinking right now. UHT milk is brought up to 280F for a few seconds and kills a much higher load of stuff. Regular pasteurization is usually under 100C/212F.   The temperature difference matters.  

[kbutton]

We have a thread for H5N1 news if you want to follow it. I’ll see if I have time to find the link.

ETA: @MercyA

 

Edited May 6 by kbutton

[KSera]

Wanting to add, while H5N1 has a much much higher mortality rate than Covid-19 (somewhere around 50% case fatality rate), we fortunately have a vaccine already that works. It would take a little time to ramp up production enough though, and that in between time would be scary. And I am legitimately concerned that there would be a large number of people who refused to get vaccinated for something even as deadly as that at this point 🤦‍♀️. 

[prairiewindmomma]

On H5N1 vaccine production: https://www.statnews.com/2024/04/24/h5n1-bird-flu-vaccine-preparedness/

Honestly, if a large number of people refuse to get vaccinated initially, it's going to be better for the rest of us. Supply is going to be tight since they have to make the vaccine with chicken eggs. According to the above article, they can generate in 5 months enough vaccine to match about 1/5 of the US population. I hate to be callous about that, but I'm really over the anti-science brigade.

[Faith-manor]

1 minute ago, KSera said:

Wanting to add, while H5N1 has a much much higher mortality rate than Covid-19 (somewhere around 50% case fatality rate), we fortunately have a vaccine already that works. It would take a little time to ramp up production enough though, and that in between time would be scary. And I am legitimately concerned that there would be a large number of people who refused to get vaccinated for something even as deadly as that at this point 🤦‍♀️. 

Oh I know a LOT of people who won't get it. My brother, his dingbat "essential oils and Reiki cure everything" wife, their anti-vax youngest daughter, their "vitamin c cures all diseases except cancer and then all you have to do is starve yourself so the cancer dies" eldest daughter, the entire church they to to that was anti-vax, anti-mask, anti-anything, and the source of major outbreaks multiple times in that county, half the church two blocks from here, and well, my entire county only had a 58% covid vax rate. So there you go. Petri dish central. 😷😷😷

 

[KSera]

3 minutes ago, Faith-manor said:

Oh I know a LOT of people who won't get it. My brother, his dingbat "essential oils and Reiki cure everything" wife, their anti-vax youngest daughter, their "vitamin c cures all diseases except cancer and then all you have to do is starve yourself so the cancer dies" eldest daughter, the entire church they to to that was anti-vax, anti-mask, anti-anything, and the source of major outbreaks multiple times in that county, half the church two blocks from here, and well, my entire county only had a 58% covid vax rate. So there you go. Petri dish central. 😷😷😷

 

I dearly hope we never find ourselves in that scenario, but I do think in a situation where half of people who contract it are dying, if it becomes widespread, people will change their tune pretty quick. People don’t understand statistics like a 1% percent risk, but 50% death rate people understand pretty well. 
 

Hopefully it just doesn’t make the jump to pigs and never gains sustained transmission between people. 

[KSera]

14 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

On H5N1 vaccine production: https://www.statnews.com/2024/04/24/h5n1-bird-flu-vaccine-preparedness/

 

This was more discouraging than I expected 😔. 

[prairiewindmomma]

13 minutes ago, KSera said:

This was more discouraging than I expected 😔. 

Yeah, I felt really bad posting it, but I think a good look at the hard cold reality in front of us will help guide some of our personal decision making.

[prairiewindmomma]

FWIW, I think we would do well to vaccinate farmers now. I don't think that is going to happen, I don't know that that'd be a receptive population, but it'd be a smart thing to do. It would lessen the likelihood of transmission to humans whenever the virus is ready to make the jump. It'd also give us a larger testing pool to check efficacy and reactions to the vaccine. 

[KSera]

1 minute ago, prairiewindmomma said:

FWIW, I think we would do well to vaccinate farmers now. I don't think that is going to happen, I don't know that that'd be a receptive population, but it'd be a smart thing to do. It would lessen the likelihood of transmission to humans whenever the virus is ready to make the jump. It'd also give us a larger testing pool to check efficacy and reactions to the vaccine. 

I agree with this. In the very least it seems that egg and dairy farmers could be offered. There’s some chance they would be more receptive than one would think, since they are used to vaccinating their animals.

[prairiewindmomma]

3 minutes ago, KSera said:

I agree with this. In the very least it seems that egg and dairy farmers could be offered. There’s some chance they would be more receptive than one would think, since they are used to vaccinating their animals.

and pork farmers...seriously, include the pork farmers

[Faith-manor]

30 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

Yeah, I felt really bad posting it, but I think a good look at the hard cold reality in front of us will help guide some of our personal decision making.

Agreed. I really think we need to be brutally honest and know what we face as much as we can IF it jumps. I also agree that IF we could vax farm workers, people who raise a backyard flock of chickens, it might make a big difference having that pool of folks to follow. That said, in my area, that community is absolutely not going to go for it. Corporate, factory farms might be able to force the issue. But family owned in this region tend to be very anti-vax about most anything except tetanus, and if exposed, rabies. It think for diphtheria, pertussis, mmr, HIB, etc. we are down to a 53% vax rate in this county and the two adjoining very agricultural counties.

[EKS]

The good thing about influenza is that it is spread by droplets and masks work very well for that.  Of course you have to wear them properly in order for them to work.  Well that and handwashing.

[KSera]

35 minutes ago, EKS said:

The good thing about influenza is that it is spread by droplets and masks work very well for that.  Of course you have to wear them properly in order for them to work.

The last sentence is key. Cow and poultry farmers should be using them already near the animals, but I doubt they are. If we had done what we should with clean indoor air standards due to Covid, we’d be in a better position for this as well. 

[prairiewindmomma]

5 minutes ago, KSera said:

The last sentence is key. Cow and poultry farmers should be using them already near the animals, but I doubt they are. If we had done what we should with clean indoor air standards due to Covid, we’d be in a better position for this as well. 

An interesting side note on that topic…our school district actually spent a significant portion of their covid money on hvac upgrades. Virtually no one is masking now, and the higher cleaning protocols have been dropped  but absences due to illness have remained lower than historic numbers…and I think it is due to the increased numbers of full air exchanges an hour + teachers still running hepa filters in classrooms.

[KSera]

1 minute ago, prairiewindmomma said:

An interesting side note on that topic…our school district actually spent a significant portion of their covid money on hvac upgrades. Virtually no one is masking now, and the higher cleaning protocols have been dropped  but absences due to illness have remained lower than historic numbers…and I think it is due to the increased numbers of full air exchanges an hour + teachers still running hepa filters in classrooms.

Yes! I think people vastly underestimate how much of a difference this can make. There have been some good studies done where they upgraded ventilation in some schools or classrooms and not others, and the results are pretty dramatic in terms of reduced illness from cleaning the air. The government offered all kinds of grants for school districts to do air quality upgrades and a lot of it was still unclaimed last I looked. 

[kbutton]

2 hours ago, prairiewindmomma said:

On H5N1 vaccine production: https://www.statnews.com/2024/04/24/h5n1-bird-flu-vaccine-preparedness/

Honestly, if a large number of people refuse to get vaccinated initially, it's going to be better for the rest of us. Supply is going to be tight since they have to make the vaccine with chicken eggs. According to the above article, they can generate in 5 months enough vaccine to match about 1/5 of the US population. I hate to be callous about that, but I'm really over the anti-science brigade.

I hope they prioritize healthcare workers again too. Some will refuse and should have an N95 stapled to their face as a consequence (if we can’t get them fired), lol.

1 hour ago, prairiewindmomma said:

FWIW, I think we would do well to vaccinate farmers now. I don't think that is going to happen, I don't know that that'd be a receptive population, but it'd be a smart thing to do. It would lessen the likelihood of transmission to humans whenever the virus is ready to make the jump. It'd also give us a larger testing pool to check efficacy and reactions to the vaccine. 

So, 90% of the articles right now are repeats of each other with little anecdotal stuff tossed in—it sounds like a lot of farm workers who have had signs of illness from cows have been undocumented and not comfortable going for treatment. I can’t remember what article said that.

[ScoutTN]

1 hour ago, Faith-manor said:

Agreed. I really think we need to be brutally honest and know what we face as much as we can IF it jumps. I also agree that IF we could vax farm workers, people who raise a backyard flock of chickens, it might make a big difference having that pool of folks to follow. That said, in my area, that community is absolutely not going to go for it. Corporate, factory farms might be able to force the issue. But family owned in this region tend to be very anti-vax about most anything except tetanus, and if exposed, rabies. It think for diphtheria, pertussis, mmr, HIB, etc. we are down to a 53% vax rate in this county and the two adjoining very agricultural counties.

Are those basic vaxes not required for school attendance in MI? 

[Faith-manor]

27 minutes ago, ScoutTN said:

Are those basic vaxes not required for school attendance in MI? 

Technically yes. But there is a very broad "religious exemption" which tons of parents claim even though their church leaders don't actively preach against vaccines. There is no burden of proof about one's faith. So a lot of kids are not vaccinated.

[Cecropia]

Quote

 

Another upload of genetic sequence data from the H5N1 bird flu outbreak in dairy cattle has exacerbated the scientific community’s frustration with the U.S. Department of Agriculture after the agency again failed to include basic information needed to track how the virus is changing as it spreads.

Like a large tranche of sequences that the USDA uploaded to a public database on April 21, this week’s data dump did not include information about where and when the sequenced samples were obtained from cows or other sequenced animals. All are simply labeled with “USA” and “2024.” [...]

A number of scientists have openly questioned whether the USDA is deliberately withholding these data, or even removing more specific information.

 

https://www.statnews.com/2024/05/02/bird-flu-in-cows-h5n1-virus-changes-missing-data/

[Ausmumof3]

3 hours ago, prairiewindmomma said:

FWIW, I think we would do well to vaccinate farmers now. I don't think that is going to happen, I don't know that that'd be a receptive population, but it'd be a smart thing to do. It would lessen the likelihood of transmission to humans whenever the virus is ready to make the jump. It'd also give us a larger testing pool to check efficacy and reactions to the vaccine. 

where I live farmers are more receptive to vaccination than others, because they understand herd immunity through experience. I know when I started question vaccination, we had something go through the sheep and were losing all our 3-4 month lambs then vaccinated the rest and it stopped instantly.

[prairiewindmomma]

4 hours ago, kbutton said:

I hope they prioritize healthcare workers again too. Some will refuse and should have an N95 stapled to their face as a consequence (if we can’t get them fired), lol.

So, 90% of the articles right now are repeats of each other with little anecdotal stuff tossed in—it sounds like a lot of farm workers who have had signs of illness from cows have been undocumented and not comfortable going for treatment. I can’t remember what article said that.

…and they’ve also tested only around 100 farm workers and havent mentioned any more positives. I think there are correlations and not a causal link.