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Anyone know if lake water (with duck and goose droppings) could spread H5N1? I have done some searches but haven’t really found anything. I don’t let my kids swim in lake water close to shore because I worry about Swimmers’ Itch but with summer close by, tons of people in the area will be jumping in…

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9 hours ago, Wishes said:

Anyone know if lake water (with duck and goose droppings) could spread H5N1? I have done some searches but haven’t really found anything. I don’t let my kids swim in lake water close to shore because I worry about Swimmers’ Itch but with summer close by, tons of people in the area will be jumping in…

The only research that is have seen went all the way back to 2007 by WHO. On page 14 of the document, they surmised that it might be possible based on two patients for whom this appeared to be the only mode of infection. But they had no proof. I tried to find newer research, and came up empty handed. There are a fair number of articles out there about finding the virus in wetland areas with concentrated waterfowl activity, but not really concerning this as a mode of infection for humans.

The scary thing is the virus can live up to 150 days in lake sediments and in some lake water depending on temperature. Smaller bodies of water and wetlands seem to be the biggest concerns. I would imagine that backyard ponds fall into that category too. Definitely a lot to think about!

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Another US human case.https://www.statnews.com/2024/05/22/bird-flu-in-humans-michigan-reports-h5n1-infection-in-dairy-farm-worker/

It’s at least encouraging that these cases linked to dairy cows have been mild in the two people who have caught it (obviously that sample size makes that a bit meaningless though). it sounds like Australian child infected in India was much sicker though. Not a lot of details. 

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7 hours ago, KSera said:

Another US human case.https://www.statnews.com/2024/05/22/bird-flu-in-humans-michigan-reports-h5n1-infection-in-dairy-farm-worker/

It’s at least encouraging that these cases linked to dairy cows have been mild in the two people who have caught it (obviously that sample size makes that a bit meaningless though). it sounds like Australian child infected in India was much sicker though. Not a lot of details. 

I just came to link to this. From the article "At least 35 people have been tested so far". 35?!? This is NOT very encouraging - given the experience we had with covid, we should be doing many thousands of tests a day! Also, the nasal swab was negative - they had to swab the eye.  

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8 hours ago, Mom_to3 said:

I just came to link to this. From the article "At least 35 people have been tested so far". 35?!? This is NOT very encouraging - given the experience we had with covid, we should be doing many thousands of tests a day! Also, the nasal swab was negative - they had to swab the eye.  

I am in Michigan. Our dairy farms are huge. I am equally concerned. The dairy farm 3 miles east of us is a smaller one and has 75 employees on the pay roll. The owner has not allowed ANY of his employees to be tested on pain for employment termination. My guess is authorities will go after him. He is a kind of sovereign citizen dude and thinks any public health policies are communist plots. 

We do need thousands of tests a day. It is the only way we can get the data to see what is happening with this virus, and since it is a ticking time bomb of likely when, not if, it jumps species again and becomes more infectious, one would think folks would WANT and demand action. But nope. There are too many Michiganders who would rather die themselves and are willing to watch their own family die as well in order to "take one for the team", the team being conspiracy theory nuts. They have their tinfoil hats on out here in rural Michigan.

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8 hours ago, Mom_to3 said:

Also, the nasal swab was negative - they had to swab the eye.  

I read somewhere that the eye has avian receptors, unlike the respiratory tract. Perhaps that’s why.

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Posted (edited)

H5N1 is still the talk of the town, but risk remains low 

 

We have another human case in Michigan. Another farmworker tested positive after direct contact with infected cows. He has mild symptoms—infected red eyes. (This is a common symptom because our eyes have bird flu receptors.) Another human case is not unexpected, given the close contact with animals and the scale of the outbreak. I am almost certain there are more human cases, just undetected.

H5N1 continues to spread among animals. USDA has reported 15 more infected dairy herds across 9 states, for 56 infected herds. A few cats in South Dakota have tested positive without any connection to cows or poultry, which is concerning. Given limited testing on animals and humans, we still don’t know how large the “true” outbreak is. 

  • USDA is reimbursing farmers for costs associated with H5N1 in hopes of incentivizing reporting and cooperation. The reimbursement is a start but doesn’t come close to the actual costs accrued. A first-hand account from a farmer shows this virus impacts cows much more dramatically than reported.

  • CDC now has a wastewater dashboard for Flu A, which, given that we are out of flu season may suggest where high levels of H5N1 are hiding. We’re seeing just how complicated these signals may be, though. For example, CA has high flu A signals, but local health departments say it’s not due to H5N1. We think these signals are from animal waste, not humans.

https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe432e75e-b6e4-497a-844b-e2357df687d8_1454x1172.png
 

Site-level data for above average influenza A virus levels in wastewater. (Source: CDC)

 

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/state-of-affairs-may-23?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=281219&post_id=144879253&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=q2z70&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

Edited by mommyoffive
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1 hour ago, kbutton said:

Well…d@mn.
 

Reading that, I wondered how it works the other way around. Because the conclusion or problem proposed is one based on if H5N1 starts spreading rapidly human to human. But if that happens we’re already in a really really bad place. Preventing that from happening is of utmost importance. I’m not sure that an explosion of Covid cases is anywhere in our top five problems in that scenario (unless the current variant of H5N1 turns out to for some reason be quite different from last outbreaks and primarily causes these relatively mild eye infections that they have been seeing— in that case, the Covid implications would be highly significant). 

But what about the other way around? Does someone with an active Covid infection become any more susceptible to H5N1? Do the immune system implications of Covid make it any more likely that H5N1 will make that jump?

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21 minutes ago, KSera said:

But what about the other way around? Does someone with an active Covid infection become any more susceptible to H5N1? Do the immune system implications of Covid make it any more likely that H5N1 will make that jump?

That’s a terrifying idea.

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Posted (edited)

Two items from today: 

From the University of Minnesota 

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/high-path-avian-flu-strikes-iowa-layer-farm-usda-reports-more-mammal

This appears to be the landing page for H5N1 status updates from the USDA. It’s not particularly easy to navigate. 
https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/mammals

Edited by TechWife
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11 hours ago, prairiewindmomma said:

From this article:

Despite the virus’s evolution, the CDC stressed the strain is still closely related to the clade of H5N1 circulating in US dairy cattle, and closely matches the two candidate vaccines currently available to manufacturers, should they be needed.”

Crazy idea..why don’t we start vaccinating farm workers for free? I know it won’t stop transmission, but if I had to work on a farm, I would really want a vaccine!

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I wonder if we are going to end up making another science fiction into reality by needing to eat/use artificial food & nutrients because we have failed to maintain our food supply in a healthy, sustainable manner. 

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12 hours ago, kbutton said:

From this article:

Despite the virus’s evolution, the CDC stressed the strain is still closely related to the clade of H5N1 circulating in US dairy cattle, and closely matches the two candidate vaccines currently available to manufacturers, should they be needed.”

Crazy idea..why don’t we start vaccinating farm workers for free? I know it won’t stop transmission, but if I had to work on a farm, I would really want a vaccine!

Well god forbid the leaders that be exhibit an speck of common sense. That is a super power they do not possess!

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9 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

Third US case reported—in Michigan—pt is showing respiratory symptoms. The Guardian is carrying the article but I cant get it to link.

Michigan has the most officially positive herds right now at 22/69.  I hope that the news outlets emphasize along with this news of a new human case that Michigan probably isn't the nation's H5N1 hotspot -- rather, it's a state that's actually taking testing and surveillance more seriously.

You won't find something if you aren't looking for it...

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Cecropia said:

Michigan has the most officially positive herds right now at 22/69.  I hope that the news outlets emphasize along with this news of a new human case that Michigan probably isn't the nation's H5N1 hotspot -- rather, it's a state that's actually taking testing and surveillance more seriously.

You won't find something if you aren't looking for it...

Yeah, when I read that Michigan was the hot spot, I thought...oh, I bet Texas has many more cases, we just don't know about them. 

When I asked about my neighbor's rooster dropping dead, the local ag service said, don't worry about it.  we don't test backyards. 

Edited by TexasProud
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36 minutes ago, Cecropia said:

Michigan has the most officially positive herds right now at 22/69.  I hope that the news outlets emphasize along with this news of a new human case that Michigan probably isn't the nation's H5N1 hotspot -- rather, it's a state that's actually taking testing and surveillance more seriously.

You won't find something if you aren't looking for it...

This is so important. Right now Michigan State University is in charge of getting the Ag community on board with testing and creating protocols. They are pretty well trusted within the agricultural community and many of the family owned farms and dairies that have the younger generation of young adults working in the family business have the added bonus that a lot of these "kids" are products of the MSU At Science department. They are science oriented. On top of that, it is also our state wide most favorite Vet program so our livestock vets are up to date with the latest, and in direct communication with their alma mater. The governor and legislature have earmarked money to help with the cost of biohazard protocols and testing. It isn't as much money as I would like, but it is a start. 

There will be many, many more cases because the state is taking it seriously.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/30/health/bird-flu-infection-farmworker.html

A third farmworker has tested positive. Last time, when the second farmworker tested positive, I quoted an article that stated that 35 workers had been tested. Now, its about 40. Imagine a world where we as a society had decided that everyone does covid tests once a day and normalized that instead of our new normal of constant covid reinfections. 40 tests!!!! And this would mean that 1 of 5 of the latest tests was positive? Am I reading this correctly? Regardless of whether this particular virus ends up getting us into trouble - the response shows what a huge failure our response has been. Jha? Cohen? Zients? Walensky?

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2 hours ago, Eos said:

I feel like I'm trapped in one of those SciFi horror movies where, in the first part of the movie, scientists are announcing, "Heh, this is cool, guys! Look what the virus learned to do now!"

Yes, I understand we are a long way (one hopes) from the virus jumping to humans, let alone human-to-human transmission. But, egads, we're not doing jack sh*t to get ready for another pandemic on anything other than an individual basis.

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24 minutes ago, Happy2BaMom said:

. But, egads, we're not doing jack sh*t to get ready for another pandemic on anything other than an individual basis.

Happily I can tell you that we certainly are! Scientists are already running projection models for the next pandemic and laying  the groundwork for vaccines. They had done the same type of groundwork ahead of COVID-19 and that, combined with funding, was how we had a vaccine so quickly.

Obviously, there is a lot of work to be done and part of that is in the realm of societal preparedness and it’s a tall order for many reasons. Basically, everyone who makes scientific research and public health funding decisions needs to buy in to the need to provide the required funding to enable preparedness in both areas. The NIH and CDC need to be able to continue the work they’ve started; DHHS needs to be able to work; research grants need to be funded for educational institutions and other research entities. A lot needs to be worked on & it isn’t free, so let’s go! 

I went to the Biologos Faith & Science Conference several weeks ago and listened to Francis Collins and Kizzmekia Corbett-Helaire speak. This is an interview that was recorded at the conference where they talk about the COVID-19 vaccine development of anyone’s interested. 
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/171-kizzmekia-corbett-helaire-francis-collins-live/id1451956029?i=1000653549450

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On 5/30/2024 at 10:05 AM, Faith-manor said:

Well god forbid the leaders that be exhibit a speck of common sense. That is a super power they do not possess!

My instinct, FWIW, is that if this is indeed appropriate (I don’t know either way), there are funding issues that would prevent carrying it out. Science costs $$$. Research & manufacturing has to be funded. Public health is currently underfunded and understaffed. 

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15 hours ago, TechWife said:

My instinct, FWIW, is that if this is indeed appropriate (I don’t know either way), there are funding issues that would prevent carrying it out. Science costs $$$. Research & manufacturing has to be funded. Public health is currently underfunded and understaffed. 

The issue isn't lack of funds. The USA has plenty of money. The issue is with the allocation of funds. The papers that be care more about allocating to that which makes them and their friends richer, not to what is in the public good. Sigh.

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1 minute ago, Faith-manor said:

The issue isn't lack of funds. The USA has plenty of money. The issue is with the allocation of funds. The papers that be care more about allocating to that which makes them and their friends richer, not to what is in the public good. Sigh.

I mean the particular agencies, the NIH, CDC, and DHHS lack funds, which can prevent them from fulfilling their roles. So, when people want to fund these areas, we need officials that will support them in doing so. While it would be great if we could remove funding from bad uses, when it can’t get done, then other areas need to be cut or taxes need to be raised to fund the necessary services. We need people in office who will make this happen, and if it comes to a tax increase, then the voters have to get on board. Thats where the common good comes in. We shouldn’t be refusing to act in the common good because it will cost money. We need to all get on the same page and figure it out. There are a lot of barriers to that, but I’ll leave out the nitty gritty of that because it would be solidly in the political arena & I want to keep this thread open. 

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18 hours ago, TechWife said:

Happily I can tell you that we certainly are! Scientists are already running projection models for the next pandemic and laying  the groundwork for vaccines. They had done the same type of groundwork ahead of COVID-19 and that, combined with funding, was how we had a vaccine so quickly.

Obviously, there is a lot of work to be done and part of that is in the realm of societal preparedness and it’s a tall order for many reasons. Basically, everyone who makes scientific research and public health funding decisions needs to buy in to the need to provide the required funding to enable preparedness in both areas. The NIH and CDC need to be able to continue the work they’ve started; DHHS needs to be able to work; research grants need to be funded for educational institutions and other research entities. A lot needs to be worked on & it isn’t free, so let’s go! 

I went to the Biologos Faith & Science Conference several weeks ago and listened to Francis Collins and Kizzmekia Corbett-Helaire speak. This is an interview that was recorded at the conference where they talk about the COVID-19 vaccine development of anyone’s interested. 
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/171-kizzmekia-corbett-helaire-francis-collins-live/id1451956029?i=1000653549450

 

Thanks, TechWife, for the info. I should have acknowledged that there are many scientists and public health officials who are working diligently to track both H5N1 and prepare for another pandemic (of any origin).

My curmudgeonly state was/is due to other factors in our political, social, and economic orbits, but I was overly broad with my brush strokes.

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2 hours ago, kbutton said:

This is one of the better summaries of where we are now with Covid that I’ve seen. I’m wishing it was in a different publication because while the interview is all factual (with the exception being one statistic he gives for death rate that is unclear—I think he’s saying that even when that was the death rate, that’s how the government was acting, but it makes it sound like we’re still have a pre vaccine era death rate), but even while it’s full of great, factual information, I have people I’d like to share it with that might dismiss it due to source. 
 

(Have you cross posted this to the Covid thread? I’ve been wondering whether we need a new Covid thread with a new name or if we stick with the old monster thread.)

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43 minutes ago, KSera said:

This is one of the better summaries of where we are now with Covid that I’ve seen. I’m wishing it was in a different publication because while the interview is all factual (with the exception being one statistic he gives for death rate that is unclear—I think he’s saying that even when that was the death rate, that’s how the government was acting, but it makes it sound like we’re still have a pre vaccine era death rate), but even while it’s full of great, factual information, I have people I’d like to share it with that might dismiss it due to source. 
 

(Have you cross posted this to the Covid thread? I’ve been wondering whether we need a new Covid thread with a new name or if we stick with the old monster thread.)

I vote for a new one. The reality is that if someone new to the  board came along, it would be difficult for them to wade through it all, and of course half of it at least is tied to earlier in the pandemic when we knew so little. 

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2 hours ago, KSera said:

Have you cross posted this to the Covid thread? I’ve been wondering whether we need a new Covid thread with a new name or if we stick with the old monster thread.)

It’s just plain in the wrong thread, lol!!!😂 

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15 minutes ago, kbutton said:

X-posted with the H5N1 thread by accident…

 

It sounds like this guy has a stake in Covid testing remaining in place, but the information seems to go with other sources that have been posted here.

https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/from-long-covid-odds-to-lost-iq-points-ongoing-threats-you-dont-know-about?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR282WO5f4x7sTPGZQg_URVpQRz83Q3ZX8kcVEQheOfsQQysTOYO0hRbH00_aem_AbC2dJVNffgsmSxBXhCCxkT2mHlnJms5EsNGHxdysWl2qbi6Lbj9jbVk46RlsqnCsUVy4kZbjtgPvhA-YDZD9zVx

Still the H5N1 thread 😂 

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8 hours ago, kbutton said:

Hmmm.  I wonder how that could happen?  Although I am confused as to what it means to be a house mouse.  Does that mean a mouse that is kept as a pet inside your home at all times? 

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I found this site this morning and, although I have not spent a lot of time on it, it seems to be a worthwhile one (eg continuously tracking & providing H5N1 updates from around the world without any spin):

Avian Flu Diary

Here's a summary from one of his recent posts: "....the number of mammalian spillovers reported to the USDA continue to grow, and now sits a 259, spread across 22 species."

Also, not sure if it's already been posted, but H5N1 made it's way to Antartica, and is having utterly devastating results on the wildlife there, including some of the mammalian species (eg sea lions). You can google for more....don't want to depress myself this morning!!

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4 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

Hmmm.  I wonder how that could happen?  Although I am confused as to what it means to be a house mouse.  Does that mean a mouse that is kept as a pet inside your home at all times? 

It's a species of mouse (Mus musculus) -- still wild.  Could have been barn mice associated with a positive dairy farm.  Details sure would be nice.

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2 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

Hmmm.  I wonder how that could happen?  Although I am confused as to what it means to be a house mouse.  Does that mean a mouse that is kept as a pet inside your home at all times? 

There’s a lot of grain stored out in the open on dairy farms, which is thought to be how cows may have been infected from birds. I can see the same applying to mice. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, KSera said:

There’s a lot of grain stored out in the open on dairy farms, which is thought to be how cows may have been infected from birds. I can see the same applying to mice. 

Agreed. I am wondering, however, how they thought to test the mice? Do you think a bunch of mice just up and died? Did someone have too much time on their hands who thought, 'heh, I think I'll test a bunch of mice for bird flu today?" 😛 

BTW, NIH *just* released a study wherein mice were fed raw milk confirmed to have H5N1 virus particles. Guess what happened?......."All animals showed signs of illness by 1 day after exposure to the milk. When the team examined the animals’ organs 4 days after infection, they found HPAI H5N1 throughout their bodies, including the nasal passages and lungs. The results suggest that consumption of raw milk may pose a risk for H5N1 infection."

So all the willfully stupid people will be on the track to take themselves out by ingesting raw milk once they hit a + sample. Unfortunately (per usual), they'll also give the virus another leg up to infecting the rest of us. 😑

Edited by Happy2BaMom
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Posted (edited)

Human fatality from avian flu in Mexico. I don’t know the greater significance given that this was H5N2 rather than H5N1. 
WHO confirms fatal human case of bird flu in Mexico

eta: sounds as though this is potentially less concerning for the general public than the H5N1 outbreak, though in this case it was fatal: https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON520

Edited by KSera
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