Tornado science/prediction? What’s it mean? How’s it work?

[Carrie12345]

I’m not in a tornado-prone area. It isn’t completely unusual for us to get little ones once in a blue moon, but we’re very much more “bad storm” than “funnel identified”.
Today, weather people are talking about a 5% chance of tornado (es?) and a 2% ring.  My pitiful google search makes it seem like this is a pretty standard weather prediction concept, but I’ve definitely never seen it said here in the 17 years I’ve been here. 

So… where should my anxiety be on a scale of 1-10.🤪

[vonfirmath]

4 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

I’m not in a tornado-prone area. It isn’t completely unusual for us to get little ones once in a blue moon, but we’re very much more “bad storm” than “funnel identified”.
Today, weather people are talking about a 5% chance of tornado (es?) and a 2% ring.  My pitiful google search makes it seem like this is a pretty standard weather prediction concept, but I’ve definitely never seen it said here in the 17 years I’ve been here. 

So… where should my anxiety be on a scale of 1-10.🤪

I live on the border of Round Rock (which got a big tornado a week ago) and we were in the 2% ring for tornadoes -- Tuesday. I kept an eye out for storms but went about my daily stuff without much concern.  So I'd keep your anxiety down at 1 or 2. Just enough to keep a weather eye out but expecting nothing.

Last Monday that was a MUCH higher chance of tornadoes.

[prairiewindmomma]

1.5.

Basically, whenever warm air hits cold air weather can be interesting, but it takes a lot of other factors for that to turn into a tornado.

I grew up in tornado alley, it’s only when you hit over 50% likelihood that I give any thought to it (mostly not driving after dark because it’s harder to spot them in the dark) and even then….tornados generally have a narrow path and don’t stay on the ground long.  

[Carrie12345]

Thank you, that helps! A 1-2 on the anxiety scale is like breathing for me, lol.

[Katy]

Just keep a phone near you if you’re outside or keep a tv on to a local station if you’re inside when storms get close. Every time there’s a huge outbreak the predicted chance was severe.