Ukraine

[Spy Car]

23 minutes ago, Shoes+Ships+SealingWax said:

I wonder how those in Estonia, Latvia, & Lithuania are handling the news of Belarus joining forces with Russia. Surprising or not, it adds a good deal more hostile borderland - particularly for Lithuania. I wonder if there will be a mass flight across the Baltic. 

Not remotely surprising--aside from the "necessity" of reinforcements  being a surprise--as Belarus really is a vassal state in this moment. Lukashenko is a puppet.

The Baltic states understand the nature of the situation. They also know that Putin's need for back ups shows Russian military weakness.

The Baltic states are seeing Putin's humiliation. His army can't take on NATO. No need to flee.

Bill 

 

 

 

[SKL]

Not sure it's that his army isn't strong vs. that they, as humans, can't accept this mission.

[Spy Car]

Don't watch this without a hankie at the ready or if you are already too impacted emotionally.

A Russian soldier's text exchange with his mother read aloud at the UN.

Bill

 

 

[Ting Tang]

10 minutes ago, Spy Car said:

Don't watch this without a hankie at the ready or if you are already too impacted emotionally.

A Russian soldier's text exchange with his mother read aloud at the UN.

Bill

 

 

My husband showed me a video of Russian soldiers in custody of Ukranian soldiers, and they gave a similar story about exercises.  They were not told the truth at all.  I am happy to see the world is against Putin. Just hope he doesn't go off his deep end. I guess if he decides to end the world, most of it was on the right side.  If he doesn't, he is turning his country into a version of North Korea.

[Laurel-in-CA]

We had a young man from Ukraine lead prayer this Sunday for his country. His brother is still there, escorted the women and children to the Polish border and had to leave the car and walk due to amount of traffic. They walked 20 miles!!! to get to the border. And then the brother headed home because no men of military age are being allowed to leave the country. He will fight for Ukraine.

[Lisa]

Our pastor mentioned this article yesterday about a church in Ukraine.

To Stay and Serve: Why We Didn't Leave Ukraine

https://www.thegospelcoalition.org/article/church-stayed-ukraine/

Here's parts of the article:

"In recent days, the events from the book of Esther have become real to us in Ukraine. It’s as if the decree is signed, and Haman has the license to destroy an entire nation. The gallows are ready. Ukraine is simply waiting.

"Can you imagine the mood in a society when gradually, day after day for months, the world’s media has been saying that war is inevitable? That much blood will be shed?

"My wife and I have decided to remain in our city near Kyiv. We want to serve the people here along with Irpin Bible Church where I joined the pastoral team in 2016. In anticipation of coming disaster, we’ve bought a supply of food, medicine, and fuel so that, if necessary, we’ll be able to help those in need rather than burden them.

"How should the church respond when there is a growing threat of war? When there is constant fear in society? I’m convinced that if the church is not relevant at a time of crisis, then it is not relevant in a time of peace.

"During this critical moment, our church, which has about 1,000 people attending on a normal Sunday, is also a place of service. We’ve recently conducted several trainings on performing first aid. People are learning how to apply a tourniquet, stop bleeding, apply bandages, and manage airways. These lay people aren’t going to become doctors, but this has given them confidence to care for their neighbors if necessary.

"We have decided to stay, both as a family and as a church. When this is over, the citizens of Kyiv will remember how Christians have responded in their time of need.

"And while the church may not fight like the nation, we still believe we have a role to play in this struggle. We will shelter the weak, serve the suffering, and mend the broken. And as we do, we offer the unshakable hope of Christ and his gospel. While we may feel helpless in the face of such a crisis, we can pray like Esther. Ukraine is not God’s covenant people, but like Israel, our hope is that the Lord will remove the danger as he did for his ancient people. And as we stay, we pray the church in Ukraine will faithfully trust the Lord and serve our neighbors."

[Mom_to3]

Ukraine is pushing for immediate membership to the EU and a no fly zone (which would require the US to shoot down Russian planes; apparently we are not willing to do that at this point). Yikes. I would think that both of these would be very easy to be interpreted as escalation that could start a world war? Also nervous about the State of the Union tomorrow. 

I was positively surprised by what CNN reported about China's speech at the UN today. https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-28-22/h_aedce143aaa67d6b6c24f349e7f25997

It's as good as we could hope for, and I think the only way we can get a de-escalation? Though of course I have no expertise in any of this...

[Spy Car]

32 minutes ago, Mom_to3 said:

Ukraine is pushing for immediate membership to the EU and a no fly zone (which would require the US to shoot down Russian planes; apparently we are not willing to do that at this point). Yikes. I would think that both of these would be very easy to be interpreted as escalation that could start a world war? Also nervous about the State of the Union tomorrow. 

I was positively surprised by what CNN reported about China's speech at the UN today. https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-28-22/h_aedce143aaa67d6b6c24f349e7f25997

It's as good as we could hope for, and I think the only way we can get a de-escalation? Though of course I have no expertise in any of this...

Neither immediate membership in the EU or a no fly zone is going to happen in the conceivable term.

Bill

[bolt.]

22 minutes ago, Spy Car said:

Neither immediate membership in the EU or a no fly zone is going to happen in the conceivable term.

Bill

Yes, Ukraine is years away from meeting requirements to even be considered for the EU.

They are taking the opportunity to officially signal that they want the support of the west, and that they wish to be considered a part of the greater European community -- contrary to Russia's entire cold-war-and-following narrative that certain eastern European states are rightly a part of "their sphere".

The Russian narrative that certain eastern European states are 'more Russian than western' has long included a whole host of buffer states who supposedly owe allegiance and loyalty to Russia as 'their' super-power. It is this narrative that provided the backdrop for the recent pre-war phase where Russia would only refrain from attack if NATO 'promised' never to admit Ukraine. They considered it a buffer state, with close Russian ties, and they wanted to keep it that way -- in spite of growing evidence of Ukraine becoming more and more of a modern 'western' European democracy.

Ukraine has opted to 'ask' for EU admittance as a signal that Russia has not only not conquered or subdued them, but has in fact strengthened Ukraine's desire to join fully to the 'western' world of modern Europe. It doesn't mean that they think they can do it (yet) -- it's about how they see themselves, and how they want their potential western allies (in whatever form they can secure those allies) to see them.

[Spy Car]

9 minutes ago, bolt. said:

Yes, Ukraine is years away from meeting requirements to even be considered for the EU.

They are taking the opportunity to officially signal that they want the support of the west, and that they wish to be considered a part of the greater European community -- contrary to Russia's entire cold-war-and-following narrative that certain eastern European states are rightly a part of "their sphere".

The Russian narrative that certain eastern European states are 'more Russian than western' has long included a whole host of buffer states who supposedly owe allegiance and loyalty to Russia as 'their' super-power. It is this narrative that provided the backdrop for the recent pre-war phase where Russia would only refrain from attack if NATO 'promised' never to admit Ukraine. They considered it a buffer state, with close Russian ties, and they wanted to keep it that way -- in spite of growing evidence of Ukraine becoming more and more of a modern 'western' European democracy.

Ukraine has opted to 'ask' for EU admittance as a signal that Russia has not only not conquered or subdued them, but has in fact strengthened Ukraine's desire to join fully to the 'western' world of modern Europe. It doesn't mean that they think they can do it (yet) -- it's about how they see themselves, and how they want their potential western allies (in whatever form they can secure those allies) to see them.

I am 100% with the Ukraine, but some of this talk isn't useful at this moment IMO.

We should focus on what can be done, what must be done, and on what unifies us.

Calls to join NATO or the European Union, or for a no fly zone will go nowhere in this moment and in addition to causing division also help give the Russians a talking point. KWIM?

Bill

 

 

Edited March 1, 2022 by Spy Car

[bolt.]

1 minute ago, Spy Car said:

I am 100% with the Ukraine, but some of this talk isn't useful at this moment IMO.

We should focus on what can be done, what must be done, and on what unifies us.

Calls to join NATO or the European Union, or for a no fly zone will go nowhere in this moment and in addition to causing division also help give the Russians a talking point. KWIM?

Bill

 

 

Well, the application for EU membership wasn't my idea, Bill!

I just thought the thread-in-general could use an understanding of why they would ask for EU admittance when it's completely inconceivable that they might receive it. Ukraine wants to be understood in a certain light on the world stage, and this is the way they chose to communicate that.

[SKL]

I think Ukraine is doing a lot for the rest of the free world right now, and they feel it.  I was surprised by the request for an exception, but I do think they deserve something for making this sacrifice while so many others are in escape mode.  Are they shoring up the dam so it doesn't break and drown many?

It's a bit early to talk like this, of course ... one day at a time ....

[Spy Car]

9 minutes ago, bolt. said:

Well, the application for EU membership wasn't my idea, Bill!

I just thought the thread-in-general could use an understanding of why they would ask for EU admittance when it's completely inconceivable that they might receive it. Ukraine wants to be understood in a certain light on the world stage, and this is the way they chose to communicate that.

I sure hope you don't think that I'm blaming the messenger. Not my intention, I assure you.

I'm just saying that on this tactical choice, the otherwise awe inspiring Ukrainian leadership is pushing for things that won't happen. Not sure that is smart in the moment. They have captured the world's attention.

Bill

[Carol in Cal.]

I agree with Bolt.  They may or may not be actually pushing for this, but they are sending a strong signal that is clear and quite bold.  And you never know, as the Hungarians say, anything can happen.  The donkey could learn to talk!

[Acadie]

The title is clickbait, but enormous insight and context here from Russia expert and Putin biographer Fiona Hill--

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340

[Corraleno]

5 hours ago, Acadie said:

The title is clickbait, but enormous insight and context here from Russia expert and Putin biographer Fiona Hill--

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340

That's a very informative — and incredibly depressing — interview.

There's a 17-mile-long convoy of military equipment and personnel heading to Kyiv tonight, and I think all the media stories about the plucky brave Ukrainians holding back the onslaught are about to evaporate in the face of a monster who will literally burn the country to the ground and slaughter millions to get his way. It seems like the only possible ways for this to end are (1) Putin razes Ukraine to the ground and absorbs what's left, (2) Putin is deposed or assassinated from within his own government, or (3) we end up in a nuclear war. And the best option (2) seems by far the least likely. 

[Ausmumof3]

13 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

That's a very informative — and incredibly depressing — interview.

There's a 17-mile-long convoy of military equipment and personnel heading to Kyiv tonight, and I think all the media stories about the plucky brave Ukrainians holding back the onslaught are about to evaporate in the face of a monster who will literally burn the country to the ground and slaughter millions to get his way. It seems like the only possible ways for this to end are (1) Putin razes Ukraine to the ground and absorbs what's left, (2) Putin is deposed or assassinated from within his own government, or (3) we end up in a nuclear war. And the best option (2) seems by far the least likely. 

And who’s to say it stops at (1) anyway?

[Ann.without.an.e]

Looking at the news this morning, I guess the negotiations must’ve gone something like.. 

Putin “surrender or I will pummel you” 

I don’t know y’all, I don’t want war but it makes me sick to my stomach that we have to sit by and let this happen. There are no other options?

[lauraw4321]

32 minutes ago, Ann.without.an.e said:

Looking at the news this morning, I guess the negotiations must’ve gone something like.. 

Putin “surrender or I will pummel you” 

I don’t know y’all, I don’t want war but it makes me sick to my stomach that we have to sit by and let this happen. There are no other options?

I’d love to see some UAVs taking out that line of tanks and armored vehicles. So long as they weren’t US-directed. I don’t know what the solution is but it’s getting scary. I’d forgotten the feeling of impending nuclear war. At least I know better than to tell my kids to duck and cover. It will just all be over. For everyone. 

[Innisfree]

6 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

And who’s to say it stops at (1) anyway?

Fiona Hill seems to be saying exactly this in the article @Acadie posted above. It doesn't stop at Ukraine. What Putin wants is the end of a rules-based international order, and the reestablishment, by name or de facto, of a Russian empire.

[Ann.without.an.e]

14 minutes ago, Innisfree said:

Fiona Hill seems to be saying exactly this in the article @Acadie posted above. It doesn't stop at Ukraine. What Putin wants is the end of a rules-based international order, and the reestablishment, by name or de facto, of a Russian empire.

But how can we stop him? The bully has a “gun” that could annihilate us all and we can’t really take it from him. The US and other allies are too afraid of nuclear war and what China may do to ever do anything about Putin. The last I saw we’re still buying oil from him too. Long term, I don’t think Russia will have any real consequences. It’s sad

Edited March 1, 2022 by Ann.without.an.e

[Innisfree]

26 minutes ago, Ann.without.an.e said:

But how can we stop him? The bully has a “gun” that could annihilate us all and we can’t really take it from him. The US and other allies are too afraid of nuclear war and what China may do to ever do anything about Putin. The last I saw we’re still buying oil from him too. Long term, I don’t think Russia will have any real consequences. It’s sad

If you haven't, read the article. Hill lists things we can do, though I agree not every individual is in a position to do so. But, if you are, divest from any Russian investments. Hill compares it to divesting from South Africa during apartheid. Businesses can stop doing business with Russia. Countries can stop buying their oil. She suggested that Saudi Arabia could make their own oil more available-- they're benefitting from current high oil prices, but could lower them and increase their production.

Of course, my own perspective is that ending our literally self-destructive reliance on fossil fuels would be even better. Get solar panels and deal Putin and global warming simultaneous blows.

Adding-- this isn't going to be over quickly. It's going to be protracted and ugly. So, while things like divestment and meeting energy needs in different ways may seem unsatisfyingly long-term, they're still useful, while hopefully more direct support continues to flow to Ukraine.

And, as always, tell your representatives what you think. Make sure they know how much you care.

Edited March 1, 2022 by Innisfree

[Ann.without.an.e]

17 minutes ago, Innisfree said:

If you haven't, read the article. Hill lists things we can do, though I agree not every individual is in a position to do so. But, if you are, divest from any Russian investments. Hill compares it to divesting from South Africa during apartheid. Businesses can stop doing business with Russia. Countries can stop buying their oil. She suggested that Saudi Arabia could make their own oil more available-- they're benefitting from current high oil prices, but could lower them and increase their production.

Of course, my own perspective is that ending our literally self-destructive reliance on fossil fuels would be even better. Get solar panels and deal Putin and global warming simultaneous blows.

I absolutely think we should try our best to end our dependence on fossil fuels for environmental and political reasons. But countries (including the US) are still buying Russian oil (in the worst of circumstances) and they won't stop and everything listed is long term, not for the right here, right now and will be no help for Ukraine. And let's face it, Ukraine will most likely be lost and people will move on and it will settle down. Everything regarding Russia will be mostly back to normal because countries want the oil and Russia has a nuke. And I hate it 😞 

Edited March 1, 2022 by Ann.without.an.e

[SKL]

Don't we have the technology to cause any nukes that do get fired to blow up in their own backyard?  I know they were developing that decades ago.  I remember people making fun of the idea but I doubt that stopped them from developing it.

The Ukrainians believe that life under Putin wouldn't be much better (and could be worse) than death, which is why they are not going belly-up.

What I don't understand is why the West is letting Putin get away with this, which could only embolden his megalomania and endanger billions of lives and livelihoods.  I mean I get it, the powers that be don't give a crap about Ukrainian people, but can they not think five minutes ahead?

Edited March 1, 2022 by SKL

[chiguirre]

27 minutes ago, Ann.without.an.e said:

I absolutely think we should try our best to end our dependence on fossil fuels for environmental and political reasons. But countries (including the US) are still buying Russian oil (in the worst of circumstances) and they won't stop and everything listed is long term, not for the right here, right now and will be no help for Ukraine. And let's face it, Ukraine will most likely be lost and people will move on and it will settle down. Everything regarding Russia will be mostly back to normal because countries want the oil and Russia has a nuke. And I hate it 😞 

We're not going back to normal. Germany's Olaf Scholz just gave a speech asking for $100 billion in new defense spending, blowing past the 2% NATO target. They already decided not to proceed with Nord Stream 2. The Swedes and Finns (who are still technically neutrals) are sending arms to Ukraine. Switzerland is going to sanction Russians (this is incredibly important, Swiss banks are the refuge of scoundrels). BP and Exxon pulled out of their Russian investments which is going to cost them billions. The world shifted this weekend in ways that we're just starting to understand.

[Slache]

1 minute ago, SKL said:

Don't we have the technology to cause any nukes that do get fired to blow up in their own backyard?  I know they were developing that decades ago.  I remember people making fun of the idea but I doubt that stopped them from developing it.

Russian nukes, yes, but not Chinese to my understanding, China has these new fast ones that we can't stop in time. But, they're made in China, so hopefully they're not all they're cracked up to be.

[Faith-manor]

Russia won't go back to "normal". This is the beginning of a larger vision of his. I don't think he stops at Ukraine. All the pearl clutching and naval gazing, "But they aren't in NATO so we can't engage" crap is no different than Germany annexing Sudetenland, and everyone just wringing their hands and letting it happen. And then it was Poland, and then.....

Just a reminder that Russia has always wanted Finland, and they are not in NATO nor is Sweden. 

So because the world cannot learn from history, the only consideration becomes nukes. "But what about nukes?" Look, if the man wants to use nukes, nothing we do or do not do is going to stop him from using them. Staying out of it, and laying low will not prevent us from being nuked. Don't expect Caligula to think rationally.

Putin is an existential threat to ALL the people of Europe. Letting him genocide Ukrainians won't stop him from lobbing nukes into Europe or marching armies of darkness over the continent and eventually parking nuclear subs on the east coast of the US, just daring us to flinch.

I do not believe strangling their money will work. It requires him to care about something besides his own maniacal plans. If his oligarchs and military leaders actually possessed spines, they would have done something about him before now.

 

 

[Ann.without.an.e]

2 minutes ago, Faith-manor said:

Russia won't go back to "normal".

 

 

I agree with all that you said. I didn't mean Russia will go back to normal. I meant that I'm afraid that everyone else will proceed with ignoring Russia and acting like this never happened. Like after Crimea. Were there any real consequences? The world just moved on. 

[chiguirre]

6 minutes ago, SKL said:

What I don't understand is why the West is letting Putin get away with this, which could only embolden his megalomania and endanger billions of lives and livelihoods.  I mean I get it, the powers that be don't give a crap about Ukrainian people, but can they not think five minutes ahead?

Why do people keep saying that the West isn't doing anything? Is it that people don't understand what it means to sanction a central bank and collapse a country's currency? I know it isn't telegenic and all we see are lines at ATMs and the Moscow stock market not opening, but we've just imposed a Great Depression/Hyperinflation on them.

[Ann.without.an.e]

2 minutes ago, chiguirre said:

Why do people keep saying that the West isn't doing anything? Is it that people don't understand what it means to sanction a central bank and collapse a country's currency? I know it isn't telegenic and all we see are lines at ATMs and the Moscow stock market not opening, but we've just imposed a Great Depression/Hyperinflation on them.

My personal opinion is that they are doing things and even things that will cause pain, but not enough pain fast enough to save Ukraine. 

[Slache]

1 minute ago, Ann.without.an.e said:

My personal opinion is that they are doing things and even things that will cause pain, but not enough pain fast enough to save Ukraine. 

Agreed. We have the power to stop this, but we're not doing it. Instead, we're hurting the Russian people, many of whom do not support this... situation.

I'm not in a position to say what I think should be done, I'm glad I'm not in charge, but what we are doing I don't think is helping.

[prairiewindmomma]

I think the politico article is spot on, and I agree, chiguirre, sanctioning a central bank, closing air space, and the other steps taken are very significant.
 

I also agree that this conflict is only a little bit about Ukraine and is mostly about whether the rule of law will continue. Democracy hangs in the balance in a number of places around the world and fascism (I mean here the political textbook definition of this term) is on the rise. Misinformation campaigns and cyber warfare are changing what conflict is as well—the achievement of instability of a government and the division of the will of a people are victories as much as holding physical territory.
 

[chiguirre]

23 minutes ago, Faith-manor said:

Don't expect Caligula to think rationally.

 

Remember what happened to Caligula? His own guards killed him. That's what we're trying to foment with sanctions. We're hoping that the Oligarchs and the Generals decide that humoring the madman is too costly and take care of the problem.

(There are already Russian subs targeting the US with nukes. They can utterly destroy us, just as we can utterly destroy them.)

[Murphy101]

14 hours ago, Spy Car said:

I sure hope you don't think that I'm blaming the messenger. Not my intention, I assure you.

I'm just saying that on this tactical choice, the otherwise awe inspiring Ukrainian leadership is pushing for things that won't happen. Not sure that is smart in the moment. They have captured the world's attention.

Bill

What have they got to lose by pushing for it? Nothing. It’s not enough to have the worlds attention. They need the worlds materials help and they needed it yesterday. 

[chiguirre]

16 minutes ago, Slache said:

Agreed. We have the power to stop this, but we're not doing it. Instead, we're hurting the Russian people, many of whom do not support this... situation.

I'm not in a position to say what I think should be done, I'm glad I'm not in charge, but what we are doing I don't think is helping.

We do not have the power to stop the invasion of Ukraine unless we are willing to start a nuclear war. I'm not sure even Ukrainians would go for that, because more of them will survive a brutal occupation/insurgency than will survive Nuclear Holocaust.

[Slache]

4 minutes ago, chiguirre said:

We do not have the power to stop the invasion of Ukraine unless we are willing to start a nuclear war. I'm not sure even Ukrainians would go for that, because more of them will survive a brutal occupation/insurgency than will survive Nuclear Holocaust.

I know absolutely nothing about war, tactics, and what we should be doing. I'm learning now. But you asked why people keep saying we're doing nothing, and I think that's why. In my mind we should be sending drones to take out that convoy and charging Putin with war crimes. Since we're not it feels like we're doing nothing. People are dying and it hurts. It draws on your heartstrings and makes you want to fight. Not fighting feels like doing nothing.

I hear you, it makes sense, but it still hurts.

[Ting Tang]

41 minutes ago, SKL said:

Don't we have the technology to cause any nukes that do get fired to blow up in their own backyard?  I know they were developing that decades ago.  I remember people making fun of the idea but I doubt that stopped them from developing it.

The Ukrainians believe that life under Putin wouldn't be much better (and could be worse) than death, which is why they are not going belly-up.

What I don't understand is why the West is letting Putin get away with this, which could only embolden his megalomania and endanger billions of lives and livelihoods.  I mean I get it, the powers that be don't give a crap about Ukrainian people, but can they not think five minutes ahead?

We do.  They've worked in tests, but there is no telling if we have what it takes to stop them all.  Ridiculous we have to talk about this over ONE man and his brainwashed buddies.  He should have been taken out a long time ago, but that must be a very hard thing to do.  Also, WH has not taken anything off the table in terms of energy.  But we should have stopped buying it from them a long time ago.  We should have done this or that. Too late now.  😞  

[Ting Tang]

17 minutes ago, Murphy101 said:

What have they got to lose by pushing for it? Nothing. It’s not enough to have the worlds attention. They need the worlds materials help and they needed it yesterday. 

Exactly.  If Russia is using vacuum bombs, Ukraine has nothing to lose by pleading for more help.  If not for the threat of nuclear war, I think this would be done and over with.  The world is with Ukraine, but we are walking on eggshells so that we don't tick off Putin.  

Edited March 1, 2022 by Ting Tang

[Spy Car]

8 minutes ago, Murphy101 said:

What have they got to lose by pushing for it? Nothing. It’s not enough to have the worlds attention. They need the worlds materials help and they needed it yesterday. 

They do need the world's material help. That is essential. Our allies need to keep up a massive resupply.

The tremendous political goodwill the Ukrainians have earned ought to be concentrated on getting them the weaponry and other material goods they need to keep up the fight. 

What they are doing is inspiring and the free world is on their side.

Best to keep the eyes on the prize.

Pushing for things that are not going to happen (like immediate entry in the EU or NATO or a "no fly zone") is a distraction from the things that really matter in this moment.

They do have something to lose by pushing it. It makes for divisions when the allies have to say "no," and it gives Putin a talking point.

Bill

 

[Faith-manor]

Just now, Ann.without.an.e said:

I agree with all that you said. I didn't mean Russia will go back to normal. I meant that I'm afraid that everyone else will proceed with ignoring Russia and acting like this never happened. Like after Crimea. Were there any real consequences? The world just moved on. 

Oh yes. That is exactly what everyone else is going to do. And then Moldova, and wringing hands, and "Not in NATO" excuses. And then Finland, and then Sweden same old same old.

Evil proliferates when people decide that other people's lives are totally expendable so long as the problem doesn't affect me personally. 

Zelensky, who is Jewish, appealed to Israel for military assistance. They were given the politically correct equivalent of, "Sucks to be you". 400,000 Jews in Ukraine. Does anyone think that they are going to fair well under Russian occupation led by a Hitler wannabe? I think not.

22 minutes ago, chiguirre said:

Why do people keep saying that the West isn't doing anything? Is it that people don't understand what it means to sanction a central bank and collapse a country's currency? I know it isn't telegenic and all we see are lines at ATMs and the Moscow stock market not opening, but we've just imposed a Great Depression/Hyperinflation on them.

Because if his oligarchs, if his military, cared, they would have done something before now. They don't care who starves in Russia. He is still selling oil, and he still has China as an ally. This is not " doing something" in the grand scheme of things. Meanwhile, Ukrainians die and lose their country. We sanctioned the crap out of Russia in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea. The ruble lost 50% of it's value. They already have a Great Depression going on, and that didn't move the needle. It didn't stop this. China is still going to let him access funds through transactions with them.

How many failed attempts on Hitler's life? Again, everyone seems to act like he and his cronies will react to pain the same way we do. They don't whimper, and back down. They think like rabid dogs.

So for those who are just so convinced that if we let him have Ukraine, he will be happy and never push his little nuclear button, I want to ask, where does that end? He takes Moldova? We wring our hands and do nothing. He takes Finland and Sweden we do nothing. Do we let him have Denmark and Norway? Poland? Hungary? Slovakia? There is literally zero reason to believe he stops with Ukraine. How much appeasement for fear of nuclear war is there? I am just wondering.

I am scared of nuclear war. I am more scared of witnessing Hitler 2.0 rise to power, and letting it happen.

I don't believe for an instance anyone in Russia is going to successfully assassinate him. I would have a party, lots of chocolate and champagne if they did. Note I am not running out for supplies.

[thewellerman]

About thinking 5 minutes ahead.

Is anyone else thinking about our own dependency on foreign exports, like even basic goods?  We have seen what happens when China can't ship on schedule.  What happens when they won't?  

[chiguirre]

1 minute ago, Slache said:

I know absolutely nothing about war, tactics, and what we should be doing. I'm learning now. But you asked why people keep saying we're doing nothing, and I think that's why. In my mind we should be sending drones to take out that convoy and charging Putin with war crimes. Since we're not it feels like we're doing nothing. People are dying and it hurts. It draws on your heartstrings and makes you want to fight. Not fighting feels like doing nothing.

I hear you, it makes sense, but it still hurts.

Ukraine has already sent the initial paperwork to start the war crimes investigation. Canada just stepped up to help with that.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-ottawa-to-help-ukraine-expedite-petition-to-probe-alleged-war-crimes/

The Ukrainians still have their Turkish drones as far as I know. I don't know why they haven't attacked that convoy, but I trust they have their reasons. So far the convoy hasn't attacked Kyiv either. Something's up with that but I don't know what.

It may "feel" like we're doing nothing, but that's just not true.

It might be soothing to read up on what's happening. I personally like keeping open DKos' Ukraine threads. They're compilations of tweets and opinions. The opinions aren't all useful, but it's a great place to get the latest updates before the newspapers pick them up. BUT, since they're a bunch of on-the-ground tweets, take them with a big grain of salt unless they're posted by a reliable source (some foreign press is quicker to post than US sources). There may be something like this from a conservative source, so look around. The DKos threads are not over the top political because of the factual nature of many of the updates.

The Meerkats on the WTM Politics Ukraine thread are also posting lots of real time updates and excellent analytic pieces. Some get posted here as well, but not all because of the politics rule.

 

[Ting Tang]

I was thinking about getting some yellow and blue ribbon today and putting bows outside.  I know it changes nothing.  

[Murphy101]

Just now, Ting Tang said:

Exactly.  If Russia is using vacuum bombs, Ukraine has nothing to lose by pleading for more help.  If not for the threat of nuclear war, I think this would be done and over with.  The world is with Ukraine, but we are walking on eggshells so that we don't tick off Putin.  

And if he gets away with this, there’s no reason he won’t do it again. And again.

And if he gets away with this, why wouldn’t China take note and decide to rattle their sabers to get what they want? 

[prairiewindmomma]

4 minutes ago, thewellerman said:

About thinking 5 minutes ahead.

Is anyone else thinking about our own dependency on foreign exports, like even basic goods?  We have seen what happens when China can't ship on schedule.  What happens when they won't?  

We are well past being able to comfortably untangle our international interdependence.

Honestly, Ukraine isn’t even what keeps me up at night. China/Taiwan keeps me up at night. Global climate change and all of the instability that will continue to come from that keeps me up at night.

[Murphy101]

9 minutes ago, Spy Car said:

They do need the world's material help. That is essential. Our allies need to keep up a massive resupply.

The tremendous political goodwill the Ukrainians have earned ought to be concentrated on getting them the weaponry and other material goods they need to keep up the fight. 

What they are doing is inspiring and the free world is on their side.

Best to keep the eyes on the prize.

Pushing for things that are not going to happen (like immediate entry in the EU or NATO or a "no fly zone") is a distraction from the things that really matter in this moment.

They do have something to lose by pushing it. It makes for divisions when the allies have to say "no," and it gives Putin a talking point.

Bill

 

Side question:

what impedes Ukraine admission to either the EU or NATO?

And all the good will doesn’t mean a anything if Russia wins Ukraine.  It will the slow end of democracy with the sound of applause for what a great hero Zelensky was.  Feeling bad about the loss won’t make any difference to the new reality.

[Spy Car]

Just now, Murphy101 said:

Side question:

what impedes Ukraine admission to either the EU or NATO?

And all the good will doesn’t mean a anything if Russia wins Ukraine.  It will the slow end of democracy with the sound of applause for what a great hero Zelensky was.  Feeling bad about the loss won’t make any difference to the new reality.

NATO rules for admission disallow entry to states that are involved in an active military conflict. Article 5 of the NATO charter requires that all NATO states come to the aid of any member state that is attacked. So immediate NATO membership would mean WWIII. No way around that.

Goodwill means a tremendous amount. Do you realize that Germany--which has had a very (very) strong policy to never send arms into a conflict zone (as a result of their history) is now helping resupply Ukraine. That's huge.

Former Warsaw Pact countries are turning over their MiG fighter planes to Ukraine. "Neutral" Sweden is sending 5,000 devastatingly effective shoulder fired anti-tank missiles. Just to name a few.

And the sanctions have been swift (no pun intended) and severe. All this depends on unanimous goodwill in the West.

We need to focus on the things will help ensure that Putin does not win.

Bill

 

 

 

[VickiMNE]

35 minutes ago, Slache said:

and charging Putin with war crimes.

The investigation has begun:  

Quote

The International Criminal Court (ICC) announced on Monday it's planning on opening an investigation into possible war crimes or crimes against humanity in Ukraine "as rapidly as possible."

One news article amongst many

[Carrie12345]

1 hour ago, chiguirre said:

Why do people keep saying that the West isn't doing anything? Is it that people don't understand what it means to sanction a central bank and collapse a country's currency? I know it isn't telegenic and all we see are lines at ATMs and the Moscow stock market not opening, but we've just imposed a Great Depression/Hyperinflation on them.

It isn’t that I don’t see that as “doing something”. It’s that it seems to me that they went into all of this knowing and accepting that that would happen. To the extent it is? I dunno.  But I’m not seeing this as a complete shock to them.

[Murphy101]

11 minutes ago, Spy Car said:

NATO rules for admission disallow entry to states that are involved in an active military conflict. Article 5 of the NATO charter requires that all NATO states come to the aid of any member state that is attacked. So immediate NATO membership would mean WWIII. No way around that.

Goodwill means a tremendous amount. Do you realize that Germany--which has had a very (very) strong policy to never send arms into a conflict zone (as a result of their history) is now helping resupply Ukraine. That's huge.

Former Warsaw Pact countries are turning over their MiG fighter planes to Ukraine. "Neutral" Sweden is sending 5,000 devastatingly effective shoulder fired anti-tank missiles. Just to name a few.

And the sanctions have been swift (no pun intended) and severe. All this depends on unanimous goodwill in the West.

We need to focus on the things will help ensure that Putin does not win.

Bill

I agree with all of that except I don’t think it will be enough to save Ukraine.  I’m super happy to be wrong though.

So what happens if Putin is charged with war crimes?